Unarguably, the opposition seems to be battle ready in their bid to wrestle power from the hands of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) which has remained firmly on the saddle of governance since 29 May 1999. Since then, the opposition has been making all efforts to push the party out of the Presidential Villa, Abuja popularly known as Aso Rock; however, all of these colossal efforts have remained futile due to factors that can be easily traced to the doorstep of the opposition.
It is ironic that the greatest opposition to the ruling PDP since 1999 has remained the PDP itself! To put it in another way, the PDP is the only party that has been saving our democracy not the opposition parties no thanks to the internal squabbles that could not be resolved due to the absence of internal democracy which the opposition themselves lack also.
But for these internal crises, the opposition parties would have been swallowed up by the ruling party due to their greed, lack of vision, selfishness, absence of democratic culture and so on and so forth.
This is why the PDP has remained unruffled despite all the media hypes of the opposition talks against 2015. Despite all the moves being made by the opposition parties especially the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), PDP seems not to bother and but for the occasional response by the Presidential spokesman, Dr Ruben Abati and the National Publicity Secretary of the ruling party, Chief Olisa Metuh, the political scene would have been a theatre exclusively reserved for the opposition.
Although the ACN through his spokesman, Lai Mohammed, has not ceased kicking the Presidency over some of its policies which it believes as anti-people, there are more expected of all other opposition parties if they sincerely want to wrestle power from PDP. The Presidency has already polarized them by bringing some of them to serve in the government by holding one political office or the other. And this has been weakening them ahead of any general election.
A weekly columnist with THISDAY and immediate past Editor of the paper, Simon Kolawole, recalled how the opposition is being destroyed by the ruling party through political appointments offered to them purposely to weaken them.
He stated, “In 1999, the PDP won 21 states; the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) won nine; and the Alliance for Democracy (AD, technically now Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN), won six. That gave the opposition 15 states. That was something to build on, ahead of the 2003 elections. But what happened? The ANPP Chairman, Alhaji Mahmud Waziri (now of blessed memory), was appointed special adviser by President Olusegun Obasanjo and he gladly accepted! How can you, being the chairman of a party controlling nine states, agree to be a presidential aide? What was that about?
The case of AD chairman, Alhaji Ahmed Abdulkadir, was even more pathetic: he became Obasanjo’s special assistant without cabinet status. By the 2003 elections, the opposition was in disarray. The AD, playing a purely ethnic game, chose to support Obasanjo in the presidential election. It backfired; the old fox, Obasanjo, captured five of the six AD states for the PDP in governorship election. AD became a one-state party, while the ANPP was reduced to seven states.
“By now, the opposition would have been stronger. They would have been in a very good stead to flush out the PDP in 2015 if they had played the game with cohesion and strategic thinking.
The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) won 12 states in the presidential election last year. But for the violence and infighting that gave an easy ride to manipulation in the governorship election that followed, CPC would probably boast of 12 governors, instead of one, today. ACN has six states. All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) has two. The Labour Party (LP) has one. ANPP has three. That would have given the opposition parties 24 states to PDP’s 12.
But the CPC bottled it with the post election violence and infighting. Party supporters, obsessed with the idea that it was Gen Muhammadu Buhari for president or nothing else, tore up their voter cards or simply refused to vote again. CPC could not take advantage of the Buhari build-up. It simply fizzled out.
So, PDP gained control of 23 states while the opposition controls a mere 13. I’m aware, of course, that LP and APGA are pro PDP, but a stronger CPC, combined with ACN, would pose a credible challenge to the PDP any day.”
But for the PDP, the ACN would have remained a Yoruba party. Whatever spread the party enjoys today is to the credit of the PDP “rebels”.
In Nigeria today, no party has internal democracy but the PDP has more rebels than the rest put together; apparently, this may have to do with its size. Every chieftain of the party outside the South-West was once a PDP chieftain! But for the ruling party, the CPC would have been without a governor! And even some who had run to the opposition often run back after the polls, especially if they lost in the election or if the opposition failed to give alternative to PDP. This is why former Vice President Atiku Abubakar returns to the camp. This is why former Oyo state governor, Rasheed Ladoja, is on his way back to the party! In fact, most of the time, PDP has indirectly helped the opposition to field candidates for the previous elections held since 2003!
Historically speaking, the opposition has never succeeded in their conspiracy to defeat the ruling party since the departure of the colonial masters and the emergence of a democratic government in the country. Not even when the likes of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the late Zik of Africa, the apostle of politics without bitterness, Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim and a few others were on the scene.
During the First Republic, Dr Azikiwe of the National Council for Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) dumped Awolowo of the Action Group (AG) and teamed up with the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) led by the duo of the Sadaunna of Sokoto and the late Tafawa Balewa. This gave him the mantle of the ceremonial president and even when the alliance collapsed the dream to join forces together to chase away the NPC out of power failed woefully. No thanksto the hostile environment created by the ruling party which led to the imprisonment of Awolowo coupled with the political flirtation of his deputy, Chief Samuel Ladoke Akintola.
Then came the Second Republic when the ruling party was the National Party of Nigeria under the Presidency of Alhaji Shehu Shagari. Again, Dr Azikiwe led his party, Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) to join the NPN government and this gave the ruling party the dominance needed in the National Assembly. This is because the gap between the number of seats won by NPN and UPN was too narrow to be ignored.
The alliance collapsed and NPP teamed up with UPN, GNPP and a faction of PRP led by the duo of Alhaji Abubakar Rimi and Alhaji Balarabe Musa. But as the polity awaited the planned grand political alliance against the ruling party, there came irreconcilable differences in their camp over who would be the flag bearer! Those who wanted Awolowo parted ways with those who preferred Azikiwe and the aftermath was their woeful performance at the polls and in contrast, the NPN claimed to have secured a landslide victory!
General Muhamadu Buhari, who ironically is a leading opposition figure today, was the beneficiary-in-chief of the New Years eve1984 coup that terminated the second term of the Alhaji Shagari regime, when he was named the Head of State by the military boys who sacked the Shagari government. Although the opposition initially hailed the military intervention, the military government later bore its fangs against them jailing some of them for as long as 300 years. General Ibrahim Babangida brought an end to such practices by toppling Buhari and opening the prison gates for the jailed politicians.
It is noteworthy that the endless political transition of Babangida which foisted two political parties, SDP and NRC on the political class was the only time when the so called progressives that always constituted opposition secured power even though the presidential poll was annulled. The imposition helped the progressives to stay together for the first time and populated SDP and that greatly helped Abiola to win at the expense of the NRC candidate Alhaji Bashir Tofa.
When the political transition kicked off again, the traditional opposition that populated APP later turned into ANPP and AD (which has disappeared for ACN). Thus, when the two sensed defeat, they teamed up to present Chief Olu Falae to contest against the conservatives backed candidate, Chief Obasanjo who eventually won.
Perhaps the opposition would have been stronger despite the fact that some of them were given political appointments like Chief Bola Ige who was named the Minister of Power if there had not been a legal victory secured at the apex court by the late fire-spitting attorney, Chief Gani Fawehinmi which ordered INEC to open the gate to as many parties as people want to participate in the election. Today, the country has not fewer than 68 parties and most of them are nowhere except on INEC register!
If elections would hold tomorrow, unless a miracle happens, the dream of the opposition to wrestle power from PDP might not be a reality due to this forest of political parties. All the PDP needed to do was penetrate most of them, plant agents among them and who in turn would influence them against contesting in the general election. It happened during the last year election when about 26 parties endorsed President Goodluck Jonathan as their consensus candidate!
The ongoing political talk among the opposition is good and a welcomed development but to what extent is their readiness and seriousness? The ACN and CPC have been having some nocturnal meetings at various levels but are they all committed? There is a faction within the CPC now whose mission nobody knows. To some, they are working for Mallam Nasir el-Rufai who wants to contest in the 2015 presidential poll. To another, it is the PDP that is using the rebels to disrupt the party!
If the two parties come together, do they have what it takes to flush out PDP out of Aso Rock? Are the leaders ready to sacrifice their ambitions for the common goal? If Buhari and Tinubu run, would want Christian voters to endorse them with the on-going Boko Haram? If you droped them, who could pull the crowd for the opposition the way they would? The Electoral Act does not recognize alliances so which platform are they going to use that would be acceptable to all and sundry? These are the issues that must be resolved before political watchers could take them seriously especially when the last year alliance fell like a pack of cards after raising hope for the masses that the end to the maladministration of PDP had come.
For now, all the efforts of the opposition would never be a great threat to the ruling party because its chieftains know the stuff the opposition is made of. They know how to penetrate their camp and they know how to break their rank and file, they know most politicians are in politics for what to get and not for what to offer. How many General Muhammadu Buharis are in the opposition today?
Political watchers also have this thought of the opposition. They know quite alright that an average politician is not ready to sacrifice his ambition for the common goal. They know most of those that are threatening to push PDP out of power come 2015 are doing so either to be relevant or to attract attention away from the ruling party. But could they prove them wrong this time around? Whatever happens between now and 2015 would largely determine if the era of PDP is over or not.
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