Thursday 11 October 2012

2015: Can the opposition pull off an alliance?

2015:  Can the opposition pull off an alliance?

NDUBUISI ORJI writes on efforts of leading opposition political parties  in the county to  form an alliance to tackle the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2015 general election.
Ahead of the 2015 general elections,  major opposition parties in the country are making frantic efforts to forge an alliance or merger. The objective  is to form a granite opposition  that will be strong enough to defeat the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and ultimately displace it as the ruling party in the country.
This is understandable. PDP has dominated politics in majority of the states and the  centre since inception of the current democratic dispensation to the consternation of the opposition parties. Besides, the thinking is that  none of the existing  political parties in the country today  can  effectively defeat the PDP all by itself hence the need for an alliance among the opposition.
Earlier in the year, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) unfolded plans to form an alliance before 2015. Other parties in the alliance talks were the All Nigeria People Party (ANPP) and a faction of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA)
While confirming the alliance between the key opposition parties, the National Publicity Secretary of the ACN, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, in an interview with a national daily had stated that the alliance was the only way to wrest power from the PDP.
“The merger of our party, ACN, with the CPC, the ANPP and a splinter group of disenchanted members of the PDP will soon come into being very soon. I can assure you, the leaders of the parties have been meeting to consider the proposal, as the only way we can rescue this country from the PDP,” he had stated.
The ACN spokesman is convinced that the success of the alliance or merger would be the end of the PDP in the country.
According to him,  “Millions of Nigerians eagerly await this alliance in the hope that it will put an end to the PDP’s misguided leadership. It is collective prayer that the ACN and the CPC put self interest aside, agree on a power sharing formula, and wrest power from PDP come 2015.”
Similarly, the CPC National Publicity Secretary, Mr. Rotimi Fashakin, said the success of the alliance would sound the death knell for the  PDP.
He said, “CPC’s alliance with its coalition partners is on course. It is a patriotic endeavour and that explains why the parties in the coalition are determined to make the alliance talks bear the desired fruit. There is the need to arrest the precipitous drift of the PDP.”
But for the PDP, the desire of the opposition to wrestle power from it through an alliance is mere wishful thinking. A PDP chieftain and immediate past National Publicity Secretary of the party , Professor Rufai Aikali   believes that  the planned alliance will end in futility.
According to him  “They can continue making alliances and counter alliances but because they are not united to provide any alternative for this country, to PDP, they are not likely to make any substantial progress.”
However,  Aikali says  members of his party cannot  take anything for granted because “one of the greatest mistakes anybody can make is to overestimate his own ability or underestimate the capability of his enemy or his opponent.”
Like Aikali, the national publicity secretary of the PDP Chief Olisah Metuh, dismissed the proposed alliance with a wave of  the hand. In a recent press statement , he said, “We hear of alliances and mergers every day. That is not new. Let us wait for 2015. Do you think Nigerians are fools? Do you think that Nigerians do not take notice of the character and tendency of individuals and political parties?
“The PDP is the only party that is committed to the continued existence of Nigeria and the welfare of its people.
“At the appropriate time, they will decide whether to entrust their great nation into the hands of regionalists, doomsday prophets and pro-anarchists or to the safe hands of the PDP. Basic common sense will prefer the latter.”
Past Alliances
Actually,  this is not the first time the opposition parties will be planning an alliance against the PDP since the inception of the fourth republic. It will be recalled that in the 1999 general election, the All Peoples Party(APP) now the All Nigeria Peoples Party and the Alliance for Democracy (AD) presented a joint ticket.
After they lost the election, both parties went their separate ways. There were also efforts by a coalition of opposition political parties to form a mega party before the 2011 general election, but that move ended in a fiasco.
Also, attempts by the ACN and CPC, which incidentally are the prime movers for the new alliance, to forge a common front in the 2011 presidential poll ended abruptly without any tangible results  whatsoever, because of ego and personal interests.
Obstacles to the planned alliance
However, in spite of the optimism of the leadership of the ACN and CPC on the success of the alliance, many people believe that personal ambition will not allow the alliance to work. Those who share these thought, are quick to point to the aborted alliance between both parties in the 2011 polls.
It would be recalled that the pact between the ACN and CPC in 2011 presidential polls collapsed over disagreement on who becomes Vice President should the alliance win the election.  ACN leaders had wanted the CPC Vice Presidential candidate, Pastor Tunde Bakare to sign a post-dated resignation letter, that will see him resigning from office few days after swearing in, so that somebody from the ACN will fill in the office. His refusal to sign the letter crumbled the alliance, and both parties went to the polls independently and lost to the PDP.
Analysts believe that personal interests and individual ambitions will get into the way of  the current moves as was the case in the past.
The National Chairman of the Labour Party (LP) Dan   Nwanyanwu  shares the view that the  selfish interest of some of those in the alliance will not allow it thrive. The LP leader told a National Daily recently that “some of them are looking for how to expand where they were. Some will attend such a meeting, and what will be on their mind is selfish interest. Though I am not trying to write off the alliance plan, I know that some of the characters who are involved in this alliance/merger talks can never push it to the end. They are greedy, not ready to be objective and because they are considering their money which, of course, they cannot defend.”
The former governor of Kaduna State, Alhaji Baralabe Musa holds a similar view. He told Daily Sun in a recent interview that greed and cash and carry politics has made it impossible for opposition to work together .
Musa said there was no possibility for the opposition parties uniting at this stage. He pointed out that “ from all indications, as at now, we should not rely on the possibility of their uniting. We should expect continuation of the irrelevance of the opposition parties, because every Nigerian has a prize tag.  You have problem with him only if the price is not right. There is a lot of money available to the government in power, and they use this money mindlessly to buy people.”
However, the National Publicity Secretary of the ANPP, Mr Emma Enukwu, said it was the ruling party that has been scuttling moves by the opposition to unite but he says the opposition parties are ready for the PDP this time around.
The Sun

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