By: Sam Nda-Isaiah
There are several figures on employment in Nigeria, but, to get the
actual statistic, the place to start is to suspect any figure that emanates
from the Jonathan government. It’s a no-brainer to assume that all such figures
would be skewed towards the everyday lies of the government. Even then, a
source that works for the Jonathan government, not long ago, declared that
there were more than 40 million Nigerians currently unemployed. That figure is
more than the population of all the countries in West Africa and almost double
the population of Ghana (25 million), which is next in size to Nigeria. The
Nigerian government’s 40 million unemployment figure is also bigger than the
population of 52 of the about 60 countries on the African continent. If this
scenario does not scare anyone, then, nothing else will. But President Jonathan
is not in the least perturbed, as he has not as much as mentioned the
unemployment problem since he became president in May 2010.
Even as bad as this sounds, the figures are in fact much higher. A
federal government establishment very recently requested applications for
employment. The establishment specifically asked for fresh graduates and that
they should all apply online. All this was to cut down the number of
applications. In spite of that, more than 12,000 people applied. The parastatal
needed 25 people. Meanwhile, Nigerian universities and polytechnics continue to
churn out more than 150,000 graduates (bachelor’s degrees and HND) annually.
Well-meaning Nigerians should be worried.
The figure I saw about a fortnight ago on graduate unemployment in
Nigeria is 80 per cent. That sounds more like it. Other credible sources say
about 70 per cent of the total Nigerian working age population is unemployed.
Yet, President Jonathan does not see an emergency. He does not even see a
problem at all. The only figure Jonathan sees is 2015. He is completely sold to
his self-succession idea that nothing else matters. Not even crude oil theft
that is about to collapse his government and scuttle the democratic regime
(more or less) that the nation currently enjoys.
Last week’s controversial shooting of unarmed squatters in Abuja
should give us an indication. It is no longer news that nearly all uncompleted
buildings in Abuja have squatters, most of them unemployed graduates. Many of
them might have been victims of last week’s panic shooting by security agents.
And you cannot completely blame the security agents who have become quite
desperate about ensuring that the Boko Haram menace is contained. If the
security agents were wrongly tipped off, and if indeed they believed the
occupants were Boko Haram insurgents, they would not be totally unreasonable to
open fire even though there will be the need for a thorough investigation into
the matter.
But my point is that as long as unemployment persists at the
current levels, there will be many more panic shootings like this. Besides,
many of these graduates will eventually be recruited into the ranks of Boko
Haram insurgents, Niger Delta oil theft syndicates and Ombatse cults any way.
Many others will join the ongoing very “lucrative” kidnapping enterprise, and
some will end up as armed robbers. Many women will end up in prostitution and
some of the men might end up as male prostitutes to serve the current large
market for homosexuals. But many more, angry enough, will take up arms against
the state. They will not be Boko Haram, Niger Delta militants, armed robbers or
kidnappers. They will claim to be fighting for Nigeria and they will not attack
the wrong people. That is the one that government people should be afraid of.
The only way to stop that from happening is to stop this stupid stealing of
public funds and start working for the people.
This is not the first time I have discussed this very dangerous issue. I
am repeating a write-up I did on October 22 last year to give Jonathan an idea
of what he should be doing. If he is serious!
Did Jonathan Know It Was World Poverty Day?
First published on October 22, 2012
Last week Wednesday, October 17, was the International Day for the
Eradication of Poverty. The day came and passed but the Nigerian government
didn’t take any notice. The day is officially recognised by the United Nations,
and nations set this day apart to discuss ways to eradicate poverty. That’s what
happened across the world on Wednesday.
It is quite telling that the Nigerian president and his handlers didn’t
even mark the day. And that is for a country that has 110 million of its 167
million citizens living below $1 a day. That, precisely, shows how seriously
Nigerian leaders take their people. This is further proved by the 2013 budget
estimates just submitted to the National Assembly in which agriculture, which
employs the vast majority of the people, received only 1 per cent of the
budgetary allocations. Governance in Nigeria is not about the people.
It is extreme poverty that has compromised the security situation of the
nation. It is what breeds the Niger Delta militancy, the Boko Haram insurgency
and, substantially, the criminality that stalks the land. And this extreme
poverty is engendered by the extreme corrupt practices of those who govern the
country. It is this extreme corruption that will make it possible for N2.6
trillion of the about N4.5 trillion budget of last year to be stolen in the
name of fuel subsidy payments. If we add the deficit, then, the actual budget
of last year was less than N4.5 trillion. And it is from this that N2.6
trillion was stolen. That means that nearly three-quarters of the budgetary
allocation was stolen last year. There is nowhere in the world that such
brigandage would happen and the government would still be in power.
Imagine what would have happened if N1 trillion of the stolen N2.6
trillion had been ploughed back to agriculture in the six geopolitical zones of
the country. To give an idea: the total investment of the four GSM companies
since GSM came into Nigeria is just a little over N1 trillion, and we all know
the level of activity and employment that the GSM revolution has generated in
the past 11 years. And imagine that the balance was put into the implementation
of policies that would create millions of small businesses that are the engine
of job creation. An average small business creates between two and five new
jobs. So imagine that five million small businesses were created. That could
potentially mean the creation of up to 25 million new jobs. This is how it is
done in serious countries and it could be even more successful in Nigeria where
the average Nigerian, including the barely educated is at heart an
entrepreneur.
Free enterprise is the basic engine of prosperity, but, as has
been established by such leaders as Deng Xioping of China, who was basically
the harbinger of China’s economic superpower status, government has to invest
in the big things that private companies cannot do, apart from adopting the
right policies. That is also what is responsible for the economic success of
South Korea, Thailand, Israel, Malaysia, Brazil, Singapore and a host of other
countries that have successfully created jobs for their citizens.
In the United States today, the internet has created a boom in its
economy, but it was the government that did the initial hard work and the very
heavy investments to create the internet in the first place that made it
possible for entrepreneurs to create Google, Yahoo, eBay and Facebook of this
world. So even in free enterprise economies, government is necessary to do the
very big things. And serious governments all over the world busy themselves how
to make life easier for their people through policies and interventions that
create jobs and eradicate poverty. But not the Nigerian government, apparently.
The Nigerian government could start encouraging internal job creation by
patronising the few industries and service providers that are now barely
surviving. If all government officials including the nation’s legislators used
only Peugeot and other cars assembled in Nigeria as their official vehicles,
for instance, PAN in Kaduna would pick up and other car manufacturers would open
plants in Nigeria to create jobs. It is the reason that Toyota, Mercedes and
BMW all have plants in South Africa, even though South Africa has a population
of 50 million and Nigeria has 170 million. If there is a market, investors will
overcome other problems.
Ask MTN how it is doing it. If all government hospitals bought only
medicines made in Nigeria, the pharmaceutical industry in Nigeria would rise
again as it did during the PTF days – at the time the pharmaceutical industry
operated at nearly 80 per cent capacity for precisely this reason. If the
federal government invested heavily in mass housing as the military did in
their days, several jobs would be created. The Abacha government showed that
was possible with the Gwarinpa Estate which was adjudged as the biggest housing
project in Africa. These are the little things that add up to make a huge
difference. But, the last time I checked, President Jonathan had abandoned
Nigerian rice farmers and had asked Malawian farmers to start exporting their
rice to Nigeria.
Our problems are even much bigger. Since 1999 when Obasanjo and the PDP
came to power, the price of oil has risen to unprecedented levels. Because of
this high price, all oil-producing countries have experienced prosperity. Saudi
Arabia and Venezuela have built new cities as a result. The people of Russia
have experienced corresponding prosperity, Angola has surged, and even the
people of the very corrupt Equatorial Guinea saw a difference. Poverty in all
oil-producing countries reduced as a result –except in Nigeria where the number
of those living on less than $1 a day increased from less than 80 million in
1998 to the current more than 110 million. This spike in poverty levels has
happened at a time oil prices moved from less than $20 per barrel during the
military era to when it got as high as $147 per barrel. It is only corruption
that can explain this paradox.
In eradicating poverty, countries leverage on their strengths.
Nigeria has a large population of nearly 170 million with an internet penetration
of nearly 50 million users, 105 million mobile phone users, with large arable
land, mineral resources in virtually every state of the federation, with
potential for oil in all the six geopolitical zones of the nation. Nigeria has
no reason to have 110 million people living below the poverty line.
EARSHOT
Governors Must Now Look Beyond Oil
State governments are beginning to dig into their savings to pay
salaries because the Jonathan government has been unable to pay them what is
due to them. In the last three months, there has been a N466 billion shortfall
in payments to state governments.
The reason, of course, has principally been because of the massive crude
oil theft that has now reached an industrial scale, according to Chatham House,
a London-based think-tank. Jonathan is uninterested in solving the problem
because he knows the thieves and will not disturb their smooth stealing
operations. If the president doesn’t know the thieves, the security agencies
should draw his attention to “General” Boyloaf’s last statement, which is to
the effect that it is they (Niger Delta militants) that are stealing (sorry,
taking) the oil, because it belongs to them. But that is not my beef today as I
have written and talked enough on the oil theft but the president is not
interested. I am more concerned at this moment about states and their
governors.
For a long time also, some of us have said state governors should look
beyond oil. Many didn’t listen. Now they know why. They may be able to augment
with the savings for now but, very soon, even that will be depleted and banks
will not grant them loans because it will be obvious that they will not be able
to repay any such loans, since their only source of repayment – the federal
government – had become defective and ineffective. There appears to be danger
ahead for everyone. But state governors must start looking beyond oil
immediately.
Leadership
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