Opposition Parties Tall Task Ahead Of 2015

Sun, 08/07/2012 - 11:04pm | BAYO OLADEJI

Preparations for the next general elections have begun with members of the opposition camps strategising on how to unseat the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) through a possible alliance. Despite these pre-emptive tactics made in anticipation of 2015, the ruling party seems unmoved. BAYO OLADEJI investigates how PDP’s unbeatable streak can be traced to the historical failure of opposition parties in Nigeria to defeat the ruling party.
Unarguably, the opposition seems to be battle ready in their bid to wrestle power from the hands of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) which has remained firmly on the saddle of governance since 29 May 1999. Since then, the opposition has been making all efforts to push the party out of the Presidential Villa, Abuja popularly known as Aso Rock; however, all of these colossal efforts have remained futile due to factors that can be easily traced to the doorstep of the opposition.
It is ironic that the greatest opposition to the ruling PDP since 1999 has remained the PDP itself! To put it in another way, the PDP is the only party that has been saving our democracy not the opposition parties no thanks to the internal squabbles that could not be resolved due to the absence of internal democracy which the opposition themselves lack also.
But for these internal crises, the opposition parties would have been swallowed up by the ruling party due to their greed, lack of vision, selfishness, absence of democratic culture and so on and so forth.
This is why the PDP has remained unruffled despite all the media hypes of the opposition talks against 2015. Despite all the moves being made by the opposition parties especially the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), PDP seems not to bother and but for the occasional response by the Presidential spokesman, Dr Ruben Abati and the National Publicity Secretary of the ruling party, Chief Olisa Metuh, the political scene would have been a theatre exclusively reserved for the opposition.
Although the ACN through his spokesman, Lai Mohammed, has not ceased kicking the Presidency over some of its policies which it believes as anti-people, there are more expected of all other opposition parties if they sincerely want to wrestle power from PDP. The Presidency has already polarized them by bringing some of them to serve in the government by holding one political office or the other. And this has been weakening them ahead of any general election.
A weekly columnist with THISDAY and immediate past Editor of the paper, Simon Kolawole, recalled how the opposition is being destroyed by the ruling party through political appointments offered to them purposely to weaken them.
He stated, “In 1999, the PDP won 21 states; the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) won nine; and the Alliance for Democracy (AD, technically now Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN), won six. That gave the opposition 15 states. That was something to build on, ahead of the 2003 elections. But what happened? The ANPP Chairman, Alhaji Mahmud Waziri (now of blessed memory), was appointed special adviser by President Olusegun Obasanjo and he gladly accepted! How can you, being the chairman of a party controlling nine states, agree to be a presidential aide? What was that about?
The case of AD chairman, Alhaji Ahmed Abdulkadir, was even more pathetic: he became Obasanjo’s special assistant without cabinet status. By the 2003 elections, the opposition was in disarray. The AD, playing a purely ethnic game, chose to support Obasanjo in the presidential election. It backfired; the old fox, Obasanjo, captured five of the six AD states for the PDP in governorship election. AD became a one-state party, while the ANPP was reduced to seven states.
“By now, the opposition would have been stronger. They would have been in a very good stead to flush out the PDP in 2015 if they had played the game with cohesion and strategic thinking.
The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) won 12 states in the presidential election last year. But for the violence and infighting that gave an easy ride to manipulation in the governorship election that followed, CPC would probably boast of 12 governors, instead of one, today. ACN has six states. All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) has two. The Labour Party (LP) has one. ANPP has three. That would have given the opposition parties 24 states to PDP’s 12.
But the CPC bottled it with the post election violence and infighting. Party supporters, obsessed with the idea that it was Gen Muhammadu Buhari for president or nothing else, tore up their voter cards or simply refused to vote again. CPC could not take advantage of the Buhari build-up. It simply fizzled out.
So, PDP gained control of 23 states while the opposition controls a mere 13. I’m aware, of course, that LP and APGA are pro PDP, but a stronger CPC, combined with ACN, would pose a credible challenge to the PDP any day.”
But for the PDP, the ACN would have remained a Yoruba party. Whatever spread the party enjoys today is to the credit of the PDP “rebels”.
In Nigeria today, no party has internal democracy but the PDP has more rebels than the rest put together; apparently, this may have to do with its size. Every chieftain of the party outside the South-West was once a PDP chieftain! But for the ruling party, the CPC would have been without a governor! And even some who had run to the opposition often run back after the polls, especially if they lost in the election or if the opposition failed to give alternative to PDP. This is why former Vice President Atiku Abubakar returns to the camp. This is why former Oyo state governor, Rasheed Ladoja, is on his way back to the party! In fact, most of the time, PDP has indirectly helped the opposition to field candidates for the previous elections held since 2003!
Historically speaking, the opposition has never succeeded in their conspiracy to defeat the ruling party since the departure of the colonial masters and the emergence of a democratic government in the country. Not even when the likes of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the late Zik of Africa, the apostle of politics without bitterness, Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim and a few others were on the scene.
During the First Republic, Dr Azikiwe of the National Council for Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) dumped Awolowo of the Action Group (AG) and teamed up with the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) led by the duo of the Sadaunna of Sokoto and the late Tafawa Balewa. This gave him the mantle of the ceremonial president and even when the alliance collapsed the dream to join forces together to chase away the NPC out of power failed woefully. No thanksto the hostile environment created by the ruling party which led to the imprisonment of Awolowo coupled with the political flirtation of his deputy, Chief Samuel Ladoke Akintola.
Then came the Second Republic when the ruling party was the National Party of Nigeria under the Presidency of Alhaji Shehu Shagari. Again, Dr Azikiwe led his party, Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) to join the NPN government and this gave the ruling party the dominance needed in the National Assembly. This is because the gap between the number of seats won by NPN and UPN was too narrow to be ignored.
The alliance collapsed and NPP teamed up with UPN, GNPP and a faction of PRP led by the duo of Alhaji Abubakar Rimi and Alhaji Balarabe Musa. But as the polity awaited the planned grand political alliance against the ruling party, there came irreconcilable differences in their camp over who would be the flag bearer! Those who wanted Awolowo parted ways with those who preferred Azikiwe and the aftermath was their woeful performance at the polls and in contrast, the NPN claimed to have secured a landslide victory!
General Muhamadu Buhari, who ironically is a leading opposition figure today, was the beneficiary-in-chief of the New Years eve1984 coup that terminated the second term of the Alhaji Shagari regime, when he was named the Head of State by the military boys who sacked the Shagari government. Although the opposition initially hailed the military intervention, the military government later bore its fangs against them jailing some of them for as long as 300 years. General Ibrahim Babangida brought an end to such practices by toppling Buhari and opening the prison gates for the jailed politicians.
It is noteworthy that the endless political transition of Babangida which foisted two political parties, SDP and NRC on the political class was the only time when the so called progressives that always constituted opposition secured power even though the presidential poll was annulled. The imposition helped the progressives to stay together for the first time and populated SDP and that greatly helped Abiola to win at the expense of the NRC candidate Alhaji Bashir Tofa.
When the political transition kicked off again, the traditional opposition that populated APP later turned into ANPP and AD (which has disappeared for ACN). Thus, when the two sensed defeat, they teamed up to present Chief Olu Falae to contest against the conservatives backed candidate, Chief Obasanjo who eventually won.
Perhaps the opposition would have been stronger despite the fact that some of them were given political appointments like Chief Bola Ige who was named the Minister of Power if there had not been a legal victory secured at the apex court by the late fire-spitting attorney, Chief Gani Fawehinmi which ordered INEC to open the gate to as many parties as people want to participate in the election. Today, the country has not fewer than 68 parties and most of them are nowhere except on INEC register!
If elections would hold tomorrow, unless a miracle happens, the dream of the opposition to wrestle power from PDP might not be a reality due to this forest of political parties. All the PDP needed to do was penetrate most of them, plant agents among them and who in turn would influence them against contesting in the general election. It happened during the last year election when about 26 parties endorsed President Goodluck Jonathan as their consensus candidate!
The ongoing political talk among the opposition is good and a welcomed development but to what extent is their readiness and seriousness? The ACN and CPC have been having some nocturnal meetings at various levels but are they all committed? There is a faction within the CPC now whose mission nobody knows. To some, they are working for Mallam Nasir el-Rufai who wants to contest in the 2015 presidential poll. To another, it is the PDP that is using the rebels to disrupt the party!
If the two parties come together, do they have what it takes to flush out PDP out of Aso Rock? Are the leaders ready to sacrifice their ambitions for the common goal? If Buhari and Tinubu run, would want Christian voters to endorse them with the on-going Boko Haram? If you droped them, who could pull the crowd for the opposition the way they would? The Electoral Act does not recognize alliances so which platform are they going to use that would be acceptable to all and sundry? These are the issues that must be resolved before political watchers could take them seriously especially when the last year alliance fell like a pack of cards after raising hope for the masses that the end to the maladministration of PDP had come.
For now, all the efforts of the opposition would never be a great threat to the ruling party because its chieftains know the stuff the opposition is made of. They know how to penetrate their camp and they know how to break their rank and file, they know most politicians are in politics for what to get and not for what to offer. How many General Muhammadu Buharis are in the opposition today?
Political watchers also have this thought of the opposition. They know quite alright that an average politician is not ready to sacrifice his ambition for the common goal. They know most of those that are threatening to push PDP out of power come 2015 are doing so either to be relevant or to attract attention away from the ruling party. But could they prove them wrong this time around? Whatever happens between now and 2015 would largely determine if the era of PDP is over or not.

Buhari and 2015 - by Femi Adesina

A most pulsating controversy raged all week on a Nigerian chat site on the Internet, which I followed with keen interest. On Monday, one SOC Okenwa had posted a piece with the title Buhari: When 2015 comes, and it immediately sparked off a stimulating debate.

What did Okenwa say in his article that drew so much response? He began from how the Daura-born general emerged on the national scene in December 1983, after the military overthrew the Shehu Shagari regime, to how Buhari and his deputy, Babatunde Idiagbon embarked on “something of a moral revolution as the war against indiscipline imposed by the jackboot became a national phenomenon embraced by all and sundry,” to how Nigeria suddenly began to work wonderfully well again, “bonding a nation together in unity, discipline and patriotism.”

Okenwa went further to lament how “a Judas within, the fifth columnist, Gen Ibrahim Babangida, then Chief of Army Staff, struck like viper,” and overthrew the government. He chronicled all the ills of the Babaginda regime, down to the inefficiencies of the current Goodluck Jonathan government, and then submitted: “In a nation where scoundrels and charlatans are doing their very best to criminalise the state and corrupt good morals, Gen Buhari stands out tall as an embodiment of probity and personal character. He appears to be the only surviving ‘saviour,’ a ‘messiah’ being acclaimed to step forward and reclaim the stolen soul of the nation.”

Okenwa concluded thus: “When 2015 comes, and a presidential poll holds and the PDP tries to rig themselves into power again, then Gen Buhari’s stark controversial prediction of the dogs and baboons getting soaked in blood should be the last option for Nigerians. May God save us all from reaching that critical point in time when a peaceful revolution would be ignited by the manipulative tendencies of those who see power as their ‘birthrights’ for 60 years and/or beyond. The stinking Augean stable must be cleaned from within – if only for us to reclaim our ailing humanity.”

Okenwa wrote, using the email soco_abj_2006_rci@hotmail.fr. Come and see the reactions his piece elicited, both negative and positive. They came in torrents, like water cascading from a burst dam. Buhari loyalists (of which I’m one: Buhari forever) applauded the article to high heavens. They excoriated the Jonathan regime, bewailing and bemoaning its ineptitude, and urged Gen Buhari to run again for president in 2015, when the “dogs and baboons will be soaked in blood,” if PDP rigged the election. And the anti-Buharis? Plenty of them also responded with expletives, curses and maledictions, saying the former head of state was this and that, a religious bigot, a sectional person, and that he would never rule this country again (as if they were God). Okenwa truly stirred the hornet’s nest with his article.

What the exchanges on the Internet showed me was that Buhari is still an issue in Nigerian politics, and may well continue to be as long as God gives him life. Let the presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the 2011 elections sneeze, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would catch cold.

They fear him like mad. Let Buhari’s shadow just appear, and thieves and treasury looters begin to shake like jelly, and run for cover. Let him utter just a word, and corrupt people develop apoplexy. Buhari, even at 70, is still an issue in Nigerian politics, and there’s no denying that fact.

Is this an endorsement of Gen Buhari for the 2015 presidential race? Not so. We shall cross that bridge when we get to it. Before the 2011 polls, he had said he would not present himself for election again, and he has not formally changed the position. There are pressures and overtures on him, he has indicated that he may change his mind if need be, but he has not officially done so. So, I keep my gunpowder dry.

But one thing is crystal clear now. The wobbling and fumbling of the Jonathan administration makes a lot of Nigerians yearn for true, robust leadership again. And they wonder how it would have been, if for instance, Buhari had been the one that emerged after the 2011 polls. The landscape is suffused with all sorts of financial scandal, with money being stolen in billions and trillions. Remember what Buhari promised during the campaigns last year? Every naira that comes into the treasury will be spent for the good of Nigerians. And you steal a dime, you serve time.

Zero tolerance for corruption in a practical, demonstrable way, not just platitude and shadow chasing. But we missed that glory land. Indiscipline is a typical Nigerian problem. In public life, in private life, everywhere, you see manifestations of indiscipline. And I remember, how Buhari was fast knocking sense into our heads, whipping us into line, before Babangida upturned the applecart in August 1985.

If that regime had lasted for longer, Nigeria would not have been where she is today, perpetually stuck in reverse gear, dangling precariously at the edge of the precipice, stinking to high heavens. Yes, it would have demanded sacrifices, but we would have gladly paid it, and today, we would have a country for ourselves, and for our children, not this decrepit thing we now parade.

Each time a bomb explodes, I ask myself what Buhari would have done. Antagonists even say he sponsors terrorism, and is behind Boko Haram, but they are so unimaginative and can’t go beyond the realm of rumour. Not a shred of evidence. Explode a bomb under a Buhari regime? You’ll pay for it real good. Nigeria sure needs a strong, firm hand. This uncircumcised land needs a circumciser, and as the Yorubas say, you only get circumcised with a lot of peppery sensations and pains. (Tita, riro la n’kola)

And of course, you need a moral leader, a worthy role model who does not love filthy lucre, to take this country out of the woods. Say whatever you may of Buhari, he simply has absolute disdain and contempt for ill-gotten wealth. Imagine a former military governor, a former oil minister, a former head of state, and a former chairman of the Petroleum Trust Fund, yet he can’t fund his campaign, because there’s no money.

He lives a simple and sedate life, because that’s what his pension can afford. He has no single oil block, no, not even a petrol station, despite having been in charge of the oil industry, and of the country at large. And you say I should not believe such a man? I’ll follow him into battle, even blindfolded (apologies, Col Abubakar Umar). Like I said earlier, this is not an endorsement for Buhari to join the 2015 fray.

I have comments on that, which will come at the right time, if need be. But are you looking for integrity in public office? Buhari would have given you. Do you want a man who would have led by example? Buhari would have been the man. Do you want a patriotic, nationalistic leader as opposed to a sectional one? Remember: “We have no other country we can call our own.

We will stay here and salvage it together.” Do you want strength of character, discipline, and surefootedness in governance? I’ll bet my last kobo on Buhari any day. What a president we never had! And may never have. Poor, poor Nigeria.

But a lot of people fear Buhari. They are the ten percenters, people who love free money, power mongers who can’t survive without the spoils of office. They dub him an ethnic and religious bigot, even without proof, and remain deaf to any explanation. Some others say he refused to campaign in their zones during the 2011 polls, forgetting that they were the ones who shut the door against him, and had even directed their people not to serve as vice presidential candidate to anybody.

And today, the country suffers the consequences. Whether anybody likes it or not, Gen Buhari is that single politician who has the ability to pull the greatest crowd in Nigeria. With God giving him life, he will be crucial in 2015, whether he’s a candidate or not. Those who dread him mortally will then have cause to fear for a long time.

Buhari: When 2015 Comes! By SOC Okenwa

By SOC Okenwa

General Muhammadu Buhari does not need any introduction in Nigeria and even beyond. His name rings a deafening bell! When in the early 80's the military struck it was the Daura-born lanky General that became the Head of State ably assisted by a strong-willed deputy, the late Gen. Tunde Idiagbon. During their short-lived occupation of Dodan Barracks in Lagos (the seat of power then) Nigeria witnessed something of a moral revolution as the war against indiscipline imposed by the jackboot became a national phenomenon embraced by all and sundry.
I remember vividly well that fateful day of 31st December in 1983. I was in the village as a
teenager surrounded by my late parents, brothers and sisters. We were all enjoying the new year mood having celebrated Christmas days gone by and waiting patiently to bid yet another year goodbye and usher in a brand new one. And suddenly the military martial music began blarring forth from my late father's old radio set tuned to Radio Nigeria. During the late 60's down to the late 90's coup d'etat in Nigeria in particular and Africa in general was a 'disease' that we all lived with. Some of the junta leaders brought with each execution of the violent or non-violent toppling of a government anguish while others gave rise to positive ideals.
We were all pleasantly surprised then when a voice came forth and announced audaciously the military take-over of power. Providing solid incontrovertible reasons that justified the coup d'etat Gen. Buhari and his military friends made it clear they came with a mission to sanitize the corrupt system. And position Nigeria for greatness that was eluding her. The speech was a powerful message of hope, one that conferred seriousness a 'business' to the coupists. The deep political cleansing had just begun with pride and patriotism combining together to demonstrate what was possible in Nigeria with good leadership.
Ex-President Shehu Shagari was thus swept aside with his corrupt henchmen in tow: the Umaru Dikkos, Richard Akinjides etc. Behold a new nation with great prospects and opportunities was born! From Lagos to Kaduna, Port Harcourt to Enugu people trooped out to the streets to welcome the 'saviours' who had come to liberate a suffocating populace under the debilitating effects of high-wire corruption and executive mediocrity. The Shagari fall reminded one of executive powerlessness, one manacled by political forces it ought to control but which turned out to be killing the system by instalments to the President's dishonour and criminal innocence.
General Buhari and the late Idiagbon of course meant well and dealt a huge blow to those archaic primitive practises that stiffled growth and promoted odious corruption. True, some draconian decrees were rolled out to check certain flaws of politicians and businessmen. True, there were certain cases of unjust incarceration of politicians with clean records. Though victims were made and violation of human rights recorded examples were shown of the efficiency of the new administration; what it served us was a shock therapy Nigeria needed at that point in time!
To be fair to history it must be emphasized that despite the concomitant brutality and
overzealousness of some misguided men in uniform things suddenly began to work wonderfully well again -- bonding a nation together in unity, discipline and patriotism! Civil servants went to work early and on time, corruption vanished through the window, people began queuing up in bus stops, discipline was the order of the day!
It was during the Buhari/Idiagbon regime that one saw a pure military government in its best military tradition --disciplined, frugal, patriotic, accountable, strict, mean and altruistic. With the coming of the modern barbarians in military fatigues beginning with the 'evil genius' Ibrahim Babangida to the late 'Khalifa' Gen. Sani Abacha Nigeria suddenly abandoned the jackboot standards embracing debauchery and national paralysis with Generals rumoured to be homosexuals and stealing billions of dollars of oil profits!
Gen. Buhari never reckoned the menacing danger posed to his administration by a lurking Judas within! The fifth columnist, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, then Chief of Army Staff, struck like viper when Gen. Idiagbon went for a holy pilgrimage in Mecca! The IBB coup became an instant success as the Minna-born gap-toothed 'Maradona' mounted the saddle with a new hidden agenda, a new crafty mien and a new giddy era in political engineering and re-engineering. IBB ran a government of fraud and duplicity and in the final lap of the lonely long-distance race June 12 was killed with a dictatorial sledge-hammer! Babangida ended up as a failed military leader with an empty legacy!
Sorry folks, let's be fair to this man with many baggages! IBB did manage to leave some 'unbeatable' legacy behind the 'dividends' of which we are currently 'reaping': martial homosexuality, bastardisation of the polity, decapitation of the military by destroying professionalism within, letter-bombing of Dele Giwa, killing of democracy post-June 12 and "settlement syndrome", that is, using money to buy over the loyalty and conscience of opponents or using same to blackmail them. Let us not list the massive sleaze he supervised which culminated in the embezzlement of billions of dollars of Gulf war oil windfall! Babangida remains an intriguing polarising figure in Nigeria, a study in kleptocracy!
The poverty of political engineering in Nigeria must be blamed for the situation where a former 'benevolent dictator' has become the 'beautiful bride' behind whom a lot of Nigerians are queuing and investing their prosperous future. In a nation where scoundrels and charlatans are doing their very best to criminalise the state and corrupt good morals Gen. Buhari stands out tall as an embodiment of probity and personal character. He appears to be the only surviving 'saviour', a 'messiah' being acclaimed to step forward and reclaim the stolen soul of the nation.
Compared with most of the politicians milking Nigeria dry from the top to the bottom Buhari is indeed a 'paragon' and his pedigree places him in a better stead to re-make Nigeria. Sentiments aside one believes a Buhari presidency in Nigeria will step on powerful toes smashing the Mafian bases and bosses and tearing down the wall of impunity and executive indifference. Leadership entails making enemies even though friendship is welcome.
Let us look at Nigeria under President Jonathan from only one significant inevitable perspective: service delivery. If service delivery is the only yardstick with which to judge Jonathan then his administration has failed to 'transform' anything tangible enough to change the disastrous course of events back home. If we decide to compare him and Buhari in terms of who would be better placed to fight corruption then the Goodluck scorecard is zero! Corruption remains the single greatest threat to Nigeria's survival as a nation. And not terrorism or Boko Haram!
And in fighting the scourge a leader must be above board and place his life on the line if need be. A president who has thus far refused bluntly to declare his assets as recommended by the Constitution he swore to uphold cannot fight corruption. A president who is reluctant to take decisions or afraid of vested interests cannot wage war against corruption. A president who believes eating cassava bread in the Villa and pretending to be in charge cannot be trusted to combat endemic corruption. A president who shies away from his responsibilities pleading that he is neither a General nor a Pharoah or that the problems of Nigeria were never caused by him cannot win the battle against entrenched corruption.
Few days ago I read online where a Ghanaian US-based economist Prof. George Ayittey lambasted President Jonathan for his media chat outing on June 24 describing GEJ as a "a joke"! According to the President of the Free Africa Foundation in Washington DC "Nigerians should not put up with such mediocrity and should mount a RECALL GEJ campaign. They should check Chapter VI of their Constitution. See Sections 143 and 144 about removing the President and Vice-President from office other than through elections". Making the sarcastic comments on twitter Prof. Ayittey declared: "Look, this GEJ guy is a joke – a meretricious mediocrity. Nigerians deserve a better leader". Though he is right in his criticism (but) it is disrespectful of him to castigate the President of a great foreign country in a social media just like that.
Gen. Buhari's dramatic political transformation never started with his 'desperate' desire to serve his fatherland again through the democratic channel. After Babangida stabbed him in the back a la Brutus the strongman has remained focused looking for some democratic space that would accommodate his ambition to right the wrongs in Nigeria. That is not power-mongering neither can it be said to be a vengeance mission. Buhari must have seen the rot in the land and wished to be given the chance to chase the plunderers away.
The recurring allegations of his being an unrepentant dictator, an undemocratic quantity and ethnic jingoist do not hold water. Many 'dictators' had metamorphosed into good democrats turning away from their past. Examples abound to illustrate this point. Democracy remains a learning process and one holds that Buhari must have learnt his lessons as a civilian. Gen. Buhari is proud to be from the north as Jonathan is proud coming from the south-south. When he was in power as a military ruler Buhari was not known to be pandering to any ethnic sentiments.
When the dimunitive former FCT Minister claimed that Buhari was not 'electable' because of his temperament and background one wants to know from Nasir el-Rufai if this conclusion is a fair assessment over time. El-Rufai has maintained his controversial status as a rabble-rouser in search of political rehabilitation ever since he came back from his self-imposed exile abroad. With corruption case(s) still hanging over his head is it proper advising this garrulous public commentator to appreciate the qualities of a leader found in Buhari? Or do we conclude here that he has a hidden agenda, that of trying to present himself as a better presidential material in the CPC?
With formidable pedigree spanning decades in both the military and political institutions in Nigeria Gen. Buhari has already made name for himself for his exemplary patriotism and integrity. Though he has 'lost' presidential 'elections' thrice he still remains a force to be reckoned with, the last man standing in the obfuscated federal enterprise whose head is both afraid of taking decisions and challenging the crooks in the system.
Betraying no sense of trepidation (for Generals don't fear!) Gen. Buhari has sought to be in the mood of the real opposition leader hitting out against the ruling party and those it threw up (sometimes via rigged elections) for the collective failure to clean up the augean stable. He has remained outspoken feeling outrageously cheated at the polls for right reasons. His anger and apparent 'frustration' is understandable given the fact that his well-articulated defined mission has been somewhat misunderstood by some Nigerians.
While President Goodluck Jonathan is, no doubt, a patriotic leader whose intentions could be described as altruistic his presidential mediocrity is beyond doubt. Nigeria in the 21st century needs a strong leader, a benevolent dictator if you don't mind, who will knock sense into the senseless federal arrangement that is killing its inhabitants. We desperately need a morally-upright President who is incorruptible and intrepid to knock corruptible elements out of the system. The emaciated giant of Africa is in dire need of a strongman who will establish a strong democracy with strong institutions to check excesses, curb waste and stop the abuse of the system.
President Goodluck Jonathan does not fit into this picture, now or in the future! The Nigerian project appears too much for his immediate understanding. But Jonathan cannot be blamed for his rapid 'miraculous' ascendancy to the powerful throne. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo did the same 'magic' in 1979 by 'coronating' a Shehu Shagari ill-prepared for the huge task ahead. Again by single-handedly pushing the late Umaru Yar-Adua to his eventual death while trying to grasp a complex problem presented by a complex nation in search of greatness Goodluck Jonathan was positioned as a 'substitute' in the event of the 'captain' getting 'injured' in the 'match'.
When 2015 comes the opposition must organize themselves with a view and vision of presenting a united strong opposition (like in Senegal recently) that will challenge and wrestle power back from the mis-ruling PDP. One believes a strong and united opposition can indeed win power and save Nigeria from the abuse of power and mindless looting orchestrated by the PDP bigwigs and godfathers.
When 2015 comes and a presidential poll holds and the PDP tries to rig themselves into power again then Gen. Buhari's stark controversial prediction of the dogs and baboons getting soaked in blood should be the last option for Nigerians. May God save us all from reaching that critical point in time when a peaceful revolution would be ignited by the manipulative tendencies of those who see power as their 'birthrights' for 60 years and/or beyond. The stinking Augean stable must be cleaned from within -- if only for us to reclaim our ailing humanity!

Refineries breakdown: Sabotage theory

I have been contemplating on the possible reasons for the perennial breakdown of our refineries, four in number, including the highly rated (World Bank Report) New Port Harcourt refinery (The Fourth), which is less than 10 years of full operation.

And the experts say that most refineries could operate for at least some 25 years.
I become more puzzled because in 1984 to 1986 we were not faced with this clearly national tragedy of profound dimension and grave consequences.

One easily visible consequence of the refineries said “Breakdowns” is fuel shortage or fuel crisis.

Some official reasons (some ludicrous) given to explain off this chronic sickness include: Sallah fasting, turn-around maintenance, lack of spare parts.  The so-called “Sallah” excuse can easily be dismissed as most ludicrous.

For the Turn-Around-Maintenance, I find this reason also not totally acceptable. Why should all the four refineries be involved at the same time? It is like a family with four vehicles sending all to the mechanic for servicing simultaneously.

The lack of spare parts reason is tied to the unavailability of funds (foreign exchange). This is also puzzling in some ways. Why should the government and the Central Bank cherish the perverse fancy of committing “suicide”? Because the escalation of fuel shortage could touch off civil unrest and socio-political conflagration.

In any case, the NNPC has been reported to be literally swimming in money. The Newswatch of July 15, 1996, page 13, disclosed that the least staff of the NNPC i.e. junior cadre staff (gardeners, cleaners, drivers, etc) eam “over N200,000.00 per annum.” I was staggered by this disclosure, If in fact it is correct. A professor’s salary is N51, 000.00 per annum.

During my days as Oil Minister (1984-86), ministers’ salary was less than N20,000.00 (Twenty Thousand Naira) per annum. And our (minister) non-accountable “pocket money” was N200,00. (Two Hundred Naira) per month. This was later increased to N2500.00; and we warmly expressed our gratitude to the Head of State and Commander-in-Chief, General Buhari.

Yet, we worked hard, without frowns, to serve the fatherland. And we registered, severally and collectively, positive results.

With the background of all the above, I wish to proffer what I call “The Sabotage Theory” to explain these frequent so-called “break-downs” of our refineries.

The theory is planked on the following:

(i)    With some BUSINESSMEN, LOCAL and their FOREIGN partners making HUGE “profits” (cost and commissions) from FUEL IMPORTS it is evidently not in the interest of these entrepreneurs for the refineries to work. The fuel import bills are as follows:

(a) 1995: $800 million

(b) 1996 (January to June): $451 million (By September 1996 $600 million)

© For EACH of the 82 fuel cargoes waiting to berth and off-load, we spend $600,000 as commissions to agents (Nigerian and Foreign); $2 million for demurrage daily for the vessels off-shore.

I can find nothing better to described this than VERITABLE INSANITY.

(ii)    Whenever there is to be “breakdown,” it is almost always targeted at the CRITICAL parts of the refineries, such as, the Fluid Catalytic Cracking Units (FCCU), the Cool Ventilation Plant, the Base Oil Section, Shutdown of Power (a situation described as “unusual since refineries are self-sufficient in Power Supply). The Newswatch magazine of July 15, 1996, “Nigeria’s Troubled Refineries” Page 9 aptly described these “spate of misfortunes.”

(iii)     The NNPC self-defence for swapping otherwise locally refineable crude oil for oversea refined products is also essentially lame.

The question is for how long can this be allowed to go on? And we are talking of several hundreds of millions of dollars of the overall national revenue. The fact that the swapping of crude for imported products is now the modus operandi, with clearly no visible evidence of halting it, further buttresses my Sabotage Theory.

The question that demands a very urgent answer is, WHO ARE THESE LUCKY IMPORTERS OF REFINED PRODUCTS into the country? If there is nothing fishy in the messy oil waters; NNPC should publish the FULL list of these importers and their agents; and how much is involved with each one of them.  Transparent accountability is sine qua non to good stewardship.

On March 20, 1995 at the swearing-in of ministers, the Head of State warned inter alia: “Your watchword must be prudence and accountability in the discharge of your duties.” The nation holds the managers of our most vital economic commodity, crude oil, to this. We are watching, and waiting.

David-West, former Petroleum Minister, first published this piece in 1996

Oshiomhole's Metamorphosis

Comrade Adams Oshiomhole… President Nigeria Labour Congress. (As he then was) had this to say at various times about removal of fuel subsidy and deregulation of the economy.“Our leaders should go into the Guinness Book of Records for fighting poverty by increasing the price of fuel and stopping Christmas gifts."- Oshiomhole addressing the press, Presidential Villa, Abuja, 2001. “We are saying to government, until your poverty eradication scheme works, until you can lay claim to some prosperity as a result of government economic policies, you have no moral basis to extort more money in the name of taxation or petroleum price increase from the people. If you do, you then heighten the level of poverty, which is already unbearable.” In an interview he granted Ima Niboro, then an editor with TELL magazine.“The Nigerian people have made the point well enough in the past that as citizens of an oil-producing country, they must not be made to pay through the nose for fuel,” Oshiomhole, Newswatch, January 15, 2003. “Let me tell you, it is the duty of the government to protect consumers. Any attempt to add any kobo to the present prices would be seriously resisted. How can a government be making decisions that would be injurious to the welfare of Nigerians. It will kill the private sector. I can tell you, any further increase will lay a foundation for a national crisis.” –Daily Independent, August 7, 2003. "We refuse to accept that Nigerians should continue to make sacrifice, because those who push the policy have shielded themselves from sacrifice. The finance minister earns in dollars. By the time they finish dealing with us with this policy of deformation, Okonjo-Iweala will fly back to United States to stay with her husband and children."- Thisday, 1st November 2004."This struggle must now be deregulated. We must go beyond the issue of price to include all those problems associated the growing state of hopelessness and the growing level of destitution and above all, the political regime that has made dialogue completely impossible. Those issues will be articulated by the coalition and they would form the basket of our chatter of demands." (Vanguard, 1st November 2004)“(Removing subsidy) does incalculable damage to the credibility of governance in the country, which is now associated with cynical exploitation of the machinery of dialogue and what is seen as public deception.-“ In an open letter to President Obasanjo, September 3, 2005. Comrade Adams Oshiomhole…Now as Governor of Edo State.“I do not want my colleagues to be shocked by the views I am going to express. The truth is, besides petroleum price, which other price has remained what it was five years ago…should subsidy be removed? Yes! But Nigerians must rise and insist that the proceeds must be judiciously utilized.“ – Vanguard, December 23, 2011. “Don’t push the people to do what they are not capable to sustain. Allow the federal government to move forward in the direction it has chosen. If President Jonathan does not take the decision to do the right thing (deregulation) now, Nigeria will crash in no distant future.” –Businessday, December 23, 2011.The foregoing a few excerpts from thousands of fiery speeches made by Comrade Adams Oshiomhole when he was labour leader and now that he is “on the other side.” It has often been said that the true test of a man’s character is when you give him power.The Peoples Verdict“It was the same Oshiomhole who, as President of Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), led more than seven general strikes against the Obasanjo government’s attempt at deregulating fuel pricing and privatize the refineries. Is the Comrade Governor telling us that all he did during in his sojourn at the Labour House are mistakes?”- Osun State Labour Party, reacting to Oshiomhole’s volte face at the town hall meeting on petroleum subsidy.This is what former military president General Ibrahim Babangida had to say of Oshiomhole: "...It will also interest the electorate to know how (he) came about his stupendous riches, particularly as a Labour leader, to warrant his rather ostentatious life-style, much of which is done in pretence at the expense of the masses."Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones. Beyond the characteristic austere look of Oshiomhole lies his acquisitive demeanour to the extent that he owns choice houses in Kaduna, Abuja and Edo, yet portraying a pro-masses Labour leader on the one hand, while exploiting them on the other hand as an agent of the ruling elite.” IBB spoke through his spokesman, Kassim Afegbua, who ironically became a media aide to Oshiomhole before abruptly resigning his appointment.CONCLUSIONWhat the times call for are principled men.A man who finds it convenient to change when his status changes wont see anything wrong with changing whenever the weather changes. Such men are as capricious as the wind.We pray God to give us leaders who are driven by their conscience and not by selfish benefits.Those who will not betray the people. Leaders we can Trust. Leaders who are as constant as the northern star.God Save Edo State, God bless Nigeria! OSAGIE EHIS Coalition of Concerned Edo Citizens.

The President And His Subsidy Gang

By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, I’m now convinced that we are in a bigger trouble than most of us realise. I have listened to, and watched carefully, the arguments, and the high drama, of members of The Kool and The Gang of Nigeria, comprising the President’s innermost cabinet. They represent the Politburo of Jonathan’s Kremlin. They are the ones with unrestricted access to the President, and his sprawling villa, in the rocky forests of Abuja; unlike the other unfavoured ministers who have to be thankful for the weekly Federal Executive Council meetings, every Wednesday, where they can catch a glimpse of the Lord of the Manor.

At such meetings, we are told, no one speaks unless they’ve read the mood of Mr President and are ready to tell him what would make him happy. Every sentence is often punctuated with that magical prefix of Mr President. You don’t have to wonder why. The President of Nigeria is the Alpha and Omega. He’s capable of turning a certified pauper into an instant billionaire, with just a stroke of the pen. The Constitution of the Federal Republic is his, and he is the Constitution.

In a Federalist system, the other tiers of government defer to him. It is not unusual to read such heresies like “The President summons the Governor of Lagos”, who ordinarily should never report to him. Even in matters of protocol, the Governor, or his representative, must welcome the President, his wife, and the Vice President, every time they visit. The entire city is usually paralysed during such visitations, which shouldn’t be so. But we have inadvertently ascribed such privileges to him. This is why most people try so hard to be in his good books. Only God can maintain the sanity of anyone with such monstrous influence and authority.

Nigeria is a Mafiadom, and most of our leaders are products of godfathers. Unfortunately, the godfathers are never in the habit of selecting the best of their godsons for the job. President Jonathan himself had confessed to a former American ambassador that he was not the best choice at the time he emerged, almost mysteriously, as a Vice Presidential candidate. His main credential was the fact that he was a quiet man they thought would be pliant. It was the same criteria that worked in favour of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua who was forced on Nigerians despite his acute and obvious ailments. The personal interests of our Al Capones always supersede that of the country. Jonathan knew his limitations and did not hide it. He knew that to move forward and win the election, he would have to acquire many things. And fortunately, he had access to vast resources and was ready to purchase whatever he lacked.

Thanks to some smart spin doctors, he was dressed in borrowed robes. Before our very eyes, the world was told Jonathan brought Facebook to Nigeria. We were told he was our own Obama who controlled the social media. Artists fell over themselves to sing songs of praise. Nollywood community named him the best promoter of Entertainment in Africa. His billboards littered everywhere. He flew over Nigeria and made promises that would be impossible to fulfil. He never blinked as he hypnotised his captive audience. To cut a long story short, he won. It would be a waste of time to argue otherwise. Politics in Nigeria, after-all, is a make-belief.

His handlers knew they had to continue the spin. They told him to buy into the equity of some famous Nigerians like Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Dieziani Alison Madueke, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Aliko Dangote, Atedo Peterside, and others, to form the new nucleus of power. They were desperate to secure the services of Dr Okonjo-Iweala in particular. Her portfolio as Managing Director of the World Bank was intimidating enough. Many Nigerians had wondered if she would be foolhardy to return to the murky political terrain in Nigeria after the ignominy she suffered in the hands of President Olusegun Obasanjo. If some of us thought she won’t take the offer from Jonathan, our hopes soon evaporated. She took the job and instantly became the Head of Jonathan’s Economic Team. The President handpicked his new friends, several times, to join his economic team, while we looked on in utter bewilderment because most of his appointees have substantial interests in the economic activity of the nation.

This powerful team definitely succeeded in brainwashing the President that subsidy removal is the only and final solution to all of Nigeria’s problems. And for a President who seems to suffer from a kind of inferiority complex for these privileged kids, he must have swallowed their arguments hook line and sinker. This is reflected in his actions and body language. The President we see today is a different person. He’s no longer that simple, meek and harmless gentleman he portrayed during his campaigns. The new Jonathan is an obstinate, haughty, mean-spirited leader, who would not bother to reach out to his fellow-citizens as they continue to occupy the streets and even get killed in the process. This is unfortunate. He has certainly been transfigured, and disfigured, beyond recognition. If he looks in the mirror, what he would find is a total stranger. And I doubt if this was what he planned for himself, and his government, when he set out on this epic journey.   It is even doubtful if he can ever recover the substantial equity he has wasted, and lost, to this self-inflicted crisis.

Members of The Kool and The Gang have been making media rounds trying to justify a government blunder that would be difficult to correct. The more I looked, and listened, to them, the angrier I became. They engaged in theoretical postulations without any consideration for the practical side of life. Everything was about making more money for government but nothing about how the people, who were already over-burdened, would find the money to pay their new atrocious bills. All their promises were futuristic, we will do this, we would do that, and we have no choice but to live on hope and promises. We were told to make sacrifice for our future but did not tell us how they would cut government spending. Speaker after speaker compared the price of oil in Ghana, Togo, Benin and others to that of Nigeria. That is a great shame.

I live partly in Ghana and can confirm to these government apologists that they are wrong. First, the price of oil in Ghana includes huge taxes. And the quality of petro in Ghana is superior to what we buy in Nigeria. These are facts. Two, Ghana is not yet an oil-rich nation like Nigeria. Three, Ghana enjoys a better infrastructure than Nigeria. I don’t have a generator in my house. My water does not come from a borehole. The roads are far better and regularly maintained. The level of corruption is lower even if it exists. Four, Ghanaian politicians are better disciplined than our own. They are not able to steal in arrears and in advance like people do in Nigeria. There is crime and punishment to a large extent in Ghana. The President of Ghana cannot live like an Emperor. President John Agyekum Kufuor lived in his own home for the eight years he governed. We lived, and still live on the same street, and never was our road ever blocked to human or vehicular traffic. The incumbent President of Ghana, Professor John Atta-Mills lives in his own house till this day. The house is even located in a popular housing estate. We should never compare sleep to death.

It is an insult to label other West African nations as a comity of thieves. One of the reasons these geniuses want us to suffer the fuel subsidy removal is because of the way our products are smuggled across the borders. That is a fat lie and a worn-out sing-song that we’ve heard since we were young. Petrol trucks are not like millipedes that can crawl through the bush. I know Benin Republic very well and know that their smugglers don’t really carry trucks but some miserable tricycles with tanks which they off-load into some cylindrical bottles along the streets. Despite their smaller economy, their current President Yayi Boni has managed to construct new roads, maintain old ones, build fly-overs, and attract investments and tourists. The Pope recently visited our next door neighbour without dropping by to say hello to us despite the huge number of devout Catholics we parade here. The road from Lagos to Seme border is hell on earth but the moment you cross into Cotonou you are in a different world. I must not forget to mention that President Boni also goes to work from his modest personal home. When are we going to have SUCH SELFLESS LEADERS?

The argument that our fuel is cheap is neither here nor there. It is not our fault that our existing refineries are comatose. It is to the eternal shame of our various governments that we have not been able to maintain old ones or build new refineries. It is the duty of the Central Bank to maintain a stable economy and keep the exchange rate low at most times. If our exchange rate stood closer to N100 to a dollar, our price would have been as low as possible. Now the poor of our country are to be punished for the inefficiency of government. In case these guys are still living in the past, I’m glad Nigerians bruised their ego this week. Something has snapped, and no matter what happens now, Nigeria will never be the same.    

A good leader must know when to fight and retreat. This is one such occasion because the voice of the people is loud and clear on the issue of fuel subsidy removal. Not many Nigerians are persuaded that there was ever a subsidy in the first instance. Those who believed it did exist are not convinced about the figures being bandied around by the proponents and exponents of fuel subsidy removal. They are querying the veracity of a subsidy that developed wings and flew from about N400 billion to a dizzying height of N1.3 trillion, within the twinkle of an eye. President Jonathan needs to find those who can tell him the truth about this monumental scam. He has wasted most of his goodwill on this unnecessary muscle-flexing. He would have to decide urgently if he wants to be the local champion or a world statesman. If the latter is his choice, he would have to stop behaving like an ethnic warlord.
I pray it is not too late to achieve that tall dream.   

Jonathan Must Not Waste this Crisis

Simon Kolawole Live!, Email: simonkolawole@thisdayonline.com

Question: How did President Goodluck Jonathan manage to rally the entire country against himself barely 24 hours into the New Year? Answer: He underestimated public reaction to a major public policy—the removal of fuel subsidy. And I’d like to be honest: even though I knew that removing the subsidy (or, more appropriately, fuel price hike) was always going to elicit negative public reaction, I never knew demonstrations would grow in monumental proportions by the day. Judging from past experiences, we thought the strike called by labour would be a huge success on the first day and then gradually peter out. After all, President Olusegun Obasanjo increased fuel prices nearly on a yearly basis until he left power in 2007 and the strikes and demonstrations were never as massive as what we’ve had so far.

But under Obasanjo, there was no twitter, no facebook and no blackberry as tools of mobilisation. There was no Arab Spring. There was no “occupy”. Things have changed dramatically over the years and it was Jonathan’s luck to be the first Nigerian leader to taste the bitter fury of social media-induced resentment. Apart from underestimating public reaction, Jonathan made the mistake of thinking that Nigerians have not changed. His advisers thought removing fuel subsidy was a pure technocratic decision to be taken without any serious consideration for the political backlash. They also did not do enough scenario-painting, such as who was likely to take advantage of the situation to whip up public sentiment against the government. They simply took a decision and expected a standing ovation from the citizens who are already confronted with soaring costs of living—electricity bills, toll gates, new driving licences, new number plates, and so on.

I laughed hysterically when the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) started grumbling that the opposition had hijacked the protests. Can anything be more naïve? What is the job of opposition? To project and protect the interest of the ruling party? Was PDP expecting the opposition to start defending and marketing deregulation? Watching the Republicans debate in the United States, you could see the candidates make deliberate efforts to blame President Barack Obama and his Democratic Party for all the woes of America, even when they knew that he was not the architect of the country’s misfortunes. But that is politics. You tell the people I am better and I have better policies than the man in power. At the last Republican debate, the candidates deliberately ignored newly released figures which showed that employment figures had improved, with additional 200,000 jobs created. That is politics.

My offering to Jonathan today is quite simple: don’t waste this crisis. He has a rare opportunity to listen to the people and take a broader and deeper look at the entire governance structure. Fuel subsidy sparked off the crisis, but a lot of messages have been passed across in the process and it would be tragic if Jonathan missed these signals and concentrates his energy on blaming the opposition for politicising the protests. The first message is that something is wrong with the marketing of deregulation. From what I have heard most of the commentators and activists say, deregulation in itself is not bad. However, it is just one aspect of the reform we need to carry out in order to reduce the cost structure in governance. This is a very important message. Governments, over the years, usually rushed to increase fuel prices without taking a global look at the hindrances to our development and how to make judicious use of our resources. Regulated pricing is the not only problem and deregulation is not the only solution. We need to see a larger picture of our fiscal nuisance if things would ever change in Nigeria.

What exactly is Jonathan’s deregulation strategy? That is a very important question. It is not enough to have a policy that will ultimately benefit Nigerians; it is also very important to manage the entire process methodically and get the buy-in of the stakeholders. The best economic policies that ignore political realities will suffer in the public arena. Now, are we looking at a one-year or two-year deregulation programme? How would it achieve results? How do we realistically encourage local refining? Or should we just hope deregulation would automatically force licensees to build refineries? What if they don’t build even after deregulation? What options are available to us? How do we address the issue of what to do with the existing refineries? Sell them or lease out the management? If licensees refuse to build under any guise, should there be an interventionist strategy by the Federal Government? Or should we continue to rely on importation for ever?

Furthermore, in achieving the objective of deregulation, are we going to remove subsidy 50 per cent now, show the people what we have done with the savings and then remove the remaining subsidy later? In the meantime, how do we cut the rot and clean up the subsidy regime? How do we deal with those who have abused the subsidy regime over the years? What is the overall government engagement strategy for deregulation? How do we get the critical stakeholders to make constructive inputs rather than just dump the policy on them and expect them to simply fall in line? What is the communication strategy? What is the exit strategy if it doesn’t work out as expected? In public policy, these are critical questions that can only improve the quality of planning and implementation. Those who think the public have no right to make any input into the policy process are deluded; good governance is best attained when the co-operation of the different publics is gained through mutual trust and respect. If the key stakeholders had been part and parcel of the deregulation process—not just calling them to a meeting and presenting a fait accompli to them—resistance would not have been on this scale.

The second message—and the most important one for that matter—is: how do we reduce waste and corruption in government? We keep saying the citizens should sacrifice, but does it make sense for the Federal Government alone to spend N1.3 trillion on personnel costs every year (I don’t have the figures for states)? As many analysts have pointed out, do we need 43 ministers? Does every minister need four aides? Do we need 469 federal lawmakers, each entitled to aides and what have you? When I was growing up, I used to hear of Minister of Information, Youth, Sports and Culture—just one person. Today, it has become four ministries, each with the full compliments of bureaucracy! Why? How has that improved governance in Nigeria? Is that not why costs keep going up? Also, can’t we have four or five senators per state and abolish the House of Representatives entirely? Do we need both the Senate and House of Representatives? Can’t we make do with just 20 ministers?

I am aware that the Jonathan administration is trying to merge some departments and agencies, but the fact remains that it is never going to be far-reaching enough. By appointing 43 ministers, Jonathan had already lost the opportunity to make a statement that he wanted a lean government, that he wanted a break from the past. It would have been easier for the president to preach sacrifice to Nigerians if he had taken concrete steps to reduce waste and corruption in government all along. The message of sacrifice would have been better received by the populace. Many have suggested that we should reduce the number of aircraft in the presidential fleet, which is a perfect suggestion. Also, most governors take chartered flights. I can’t remember the last time I was on a flight with a governor on board. Some governors even built airports specifically to be able to take chartered flights to their states. These are wastes. Some governors appoint scores and hundreds of aides who do nothing than deplete the treasury. We need to perform surgery on all these wastes.

President Jonathan has a very good crisis in his hands. He has to decide what he wants to do with it. He can seize this rare opportunity in the nation’s history to propose wholesome changes in the way we do our things in Nigeria. He has been talking about constitution review and has even empanelled a body for that matter. The sections that we now have to seriously consider for amendment have been pointed out by the people. Everything to cut the size of government at every level must be built into the new constitution. This crisis must not be wasted.

And Four Other Things...

‘Diesel Refinery’
I guess my reference to “a refinery to produce diesel” in my article last week got a lot of people confused. This is my point: diesel was deregulated seven years ago by President Olusegun Obasanjo; same for aviation fuel. The whole idea, we were told, was to encourage investment in refineries. Meanwhile, petrol and kerosene were still regulated, meaning government was still paying subsidies to make up for the loss by marketers. It follows, doesn’t it, that enough had been done to encourage building of refineries? I mean, you could set up a refinery, sell diesel and aviation fuel at market prices, and then collect subsidies for petrol and kerosene which were still regulated.

In a nutshell, you would not be making any losses, even without deregulation! With all these incentives, nobody still built a refinery. Therefore, deregulation is not the magic wand. We need to find out why investors run away even when the prices are guaranteed by government through subsidies. My sense is that it is cheaper and easier to engage in fuel importation and make your margins immediately than to spend $1 billion to build a refinery that would take years before you recoup your investment.

Occupying with Champagne
The ‘Occupy Nigeria’ movement that emerged after the removal of fuel subsidy came in many colours. At Ojota, Lagos, the crowds kept growing day by day, defying all predictions that protests only last for a few hours in Nigeria. Doctors volunteered free treatment. A cousin of mine took 10 bags of “pure water” and distributed them free of charge at the venue. Many Nigerians from the middle class took active part, trekking lengths to take part in the protests. An in-law told me on phone: “Simon, it’s not that I can’t afford N141 per litre but the government must cut down on wastes too! This is the time to take back Nigeria!” The organisers took several steps ahead of the government. Musicians came to give free entertainment. Activists took turns to address the people. I will never forget, however, the story that the wealthy also took part in the Ikoyi rally. After making known their opposition to the deregulation policy, they settled down to bottles of champagne. Unsubsidised champagne, that is.

‘Hacktivists’ at Work
Last Friday, some “hacktivists”—those who specialise in hacking websites as a sign of public protest—threatened to hit the website of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). A few hours later, they succeeded in putting out a press release that members of the “fuel subsidy cabal” had been arrested by the agency. Incredibly, the statement was “signed” by Femi Babafemi, who left the agency along with the former chairman, Mrs Farida Waziri. What’s more, two of the people that were said to have been arrested were actually not in the country. One was in Ghana, another in London. Yet EFCC was said to have arrested them! It reminded me very much of the mischief that was circulated three years ago. They said President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua would resign after a “carbinate” reshuffle. The story was attributed to the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN). It is so easy to pick holes in these things sometimes.

Falana on Oil Revenue
A blackberry message was being circulated yesterday. It was attributed to activist and lawyer, Mr. Femi Falana. It read: “1. Crude oil productn/day-2.5m barrels; 2. Current price= $113/barrel; 3. daily sales= 2.5m x 113= $282.5 million; 4. Monthly sales= 282.5 million x 30 days= $8.475 billion; 5. Yearly sales= $8.475 billion x 12= $101.7 billion; 6. Naira equivalent =101.7 billion x $160=16.272 trillion naira per year. 7. Nigeria's budget for 2012 = 4.5 trillion naira. Now the question is: Where is the surplus going?!” I’m not too sure this came from Falana, because this figure completely ignores the budgets of 36 states and 774 local government areas which also come from the oil revenue. Neither is the foreign reserve taken into consideration.