Text
of the speech by Nigeria’s opposition leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed
Tinubu, delivered Wednesday at the Woodrow Wilson Centre, WASHINGTON,
DC.
1. Mr. McDonald, Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen,
I am
honored to be here today at the Woodrow Wilson Centre and thank you for
inviting me. I commend the work that you do. This is an institution
known for scholarship, lively discourse and the search for policies that
advance peace and development. By shining the light of knowledge, you
help dispel ignorance and explore solutions to conflicts. Therefore, I
will do my humble best to speak in the spirit that is the hallmark of
this venerable institution.
2. Nigeria is the focus of our
conversation today and I will attempt to briefly capture the challenges
that confront us as a nation. I have devoted most of my adult life to
promoting democracy in Nigeria. The battle has been neither short nor
easy. I have lived in exile, unsure if I would ever see my homeland
again. My life has been under threat to the point where I did not know
if I would see the next sunrise. I say these things not to boast. There
are thousands who made similar or greater sacrifice. I say these things
so you may understand that my address to you is based on the long-term
perspective of a person who has occupied the trenches from the onset of
the struggle for democracy versus dictatorship in Nigeria. I am not of
that class of politicians who have benefitted from the struggle without
participating in it. Because they never invested themselves in this
clash between liberty and blind might, these politicians do not fully
appreciate, nor do they seek to advance the cause of democracy. Because
my life has been defined by the achievements and setbacks recorded in
this struggle, I understand with every sinew and fiber of my being how
far we have come and how far we have yet to go.
3. Background: The House Has Not Fallen but Its Structure Is Weak
Nigeria currently is tossed by four distinct but related storms. First,
we exist in political limbo. Although uniformed generals no longer
formally control the levers of government, the ways and manner of
military rule still dominate the political landscape. We hold elections
in Nigeria. But that isolated fact does not a democracy make.
4.
Nigeria exists in that strange dimension where we have a civilian
government equally possessed of the attributes of authoritarian rule as
if democratic governance. Everyday Nigeria awakens, it awakens to this
hybrid existence and a vexing question: To which side shall the balance
tip? Although most of us consider this an unfortunate predicament,
numerous actors profit from the current state of affairs. Leading
figures in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have repeatedly proclaimed
the objective of ruling Nigeria for an uninterrupted sixty- year
period. Such dynastic aspirations are at variance with true democracy.
Then there are those of us who believe the veneer of democracy is
insufficient in this day and age. We believe Nigeria cannot remain a
confused hybrid without succumbing to national regression. The nation
must move either toward real democracy or real disaster. People are fond
of saying that Nigeria is at the crossroads. Our situation is more
complex than what the phrase usually implies. We are like a person with
multiple personalities standing at the crossroads. Consequently, we
remain locked in a struggle simultaneously pulling Nigeria in different
directions. Democratic and authoritarian forces engage in a tug-of-war
in which the soul of Nigeria’s governance is the prize at stake.
5.
Due to the fact that competing elements of the political class have
been locked for the last 13 years in this struggle to define the nature
of government, there has been insufficient governance for the benefit of
the people. We certainly have not seen much good governance. To be
honest, we have not even had much in the way of purposeful democratic
governance. Unfortunately, we have suffered more from inertia and
confusion than from rule of intelligent but malevolent design.
6.
Second, mostly due to Boko Haram and criminal groups in the northern and
eastern parts of the country, internal security has ebbed to a low
point. This has led to fear and uncertainty. Tension now dominates
religious and political activities. It has had a profound chilling
effect on economic activity in many areas. In many places, for example,
children no longer go to school and farmers neglect their fields,
fearing attacks by Bolo Haram.
7. Third, ethnic and sectional
divisions are presently higher in Nigeria than at any time in recent
memory. The ruling party resides in a state of chronic indigestion
regarding the ethnic and regional allocation of top offices in the party
and government, especially that of the president. Although members of
the same “ruling” party, political figures from the north and south hurl
often reckless accusations at each other not because of differences
over substantive issues but because of regional loyalties. They don’t
differ over substantive issues because they rarely think about such
matters. No, they bicker across the widening geographic and ethnic
divide that they have helped to create. Those who should aspire to the
status of statesmen lunge at one another like street brawlers.
8.
Talk of disintegration now is fashionable in some quarters. Two weeks
ago, a faction of the Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP)
issued a Declaration of Independence in Nigeria and designed a flag
representing the sovereignty of the Ogoni people. Calls for
self-determination by the South East-based Movement for the
Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) have
intensified. Last week, MASSOB was reported to have applied for UN
observer status. Add to these developments, the new sense of Ijaw ethnic
consciousness, similar ethnic agitations and Boko Haram’s anomie and
you realize all is not well with Nigeria. It is clear that centrifugal
forces have gained strength and this noxious gain is substantially due
to the intramural machinations that define the ruling party.
9.
Fourth, for the majority of Nigerians, the economy functions as an
obstacle not an ally. Government claims that Nigeria enjoys the world’s
third fastest growing economy with annual GDP growth of roughly 7
percent. This handsome figure contrasts with the unattractive lives most
people endure. Income inequality is among the worst in the world. A
higher percentage of Nigerians now wallow in abject poverty since the
ruling party came to power. With insecurity escalating across large
swaths of the land, electricity generation at a miserable 4,000 MGWs for
an entire nation of over 150 million people, the collapse of the
manufacturing industry and spiraling unemployment figures of youths and
college graduates, it is difficult to take the GDP figure at face value.
The
Nigerian government finds it convenient to lie. If by happenstance the
GDP approximates the truth, it means super-elite within the elite
benefits enormously while the rest of the nation suffers. True national
prosperity cannot be founded on such a top-heavy architecture. Most
Nigerians believe their lives are much harder now more than 13 years ago
and getting worse. The hope that people still have about the future has
nothing to do with the quality of government economic policy. It is
mostly due to an innate sense of optimism that is a uniquely Nigerian
trait which defies the normal standards of logic. It is one of the
things that keeps Nigeria afloat though so many things say it should
have already drowned.
10. The picture I have painted is stark but
accurate, harsh but not hopeless. If I thought things were beyond hope, I
would pursue another vocation. I am glued to this path because I
believe a democratic, responsive government can improve Nigeria.
However, if it persists along current policy lines, the federal
government will resolve nothing and will preside over a worsening state.
11.
I do not claim the opposition to be a choir of angels. We are not. Not
all who call themselves to be opposition politicians are bona fide
democrats. There is a principled opposition and an opportunistic one.
Some are disgruntled elements of the current regime who have slipped
into the opposition for a chance to settle personal scores or to advance
personal ambitions through a different route. These people are
opposition in name only; in reality, they are but the photographic
negative of the status quo they purport to oppose.
12. Nor do I
believe those in power are evil incarnate. Some are decent people.
However, the governing system they have created and the dominant values
under which that system operates extinguishes these people’s finer
qualities. The overriding concern of the PDP political community is to
retain power, not to advance the public welfare. With all our gaps and
imperfections, the opposition is possessed of greater civic purpose and
has in mind substantive policies qualitatively better than the toxin the
current government is brewing.
13. In the rest of this address, I
will contrast the policies of my party, the Action Congress of Nigeria,
with those of government. You will see that we have significantly
different visions. The problem with our current rulers is not that they
don’t love Nigeria. They love the concept of Nigeria well enough. The
real problem is that they care little for the average Nigerian.
14. Insecurity: A Growing Nemesis
Nigeria is fast becoming one of the most dangerous places on earth. The
stories of militia killings, brutal attacks and bombings we thought
restricted to Afghanistan, Iraq or Somalia are now daily fare in
Nigeria. In Boko Haram, Nigeria confronts a creeping, low-grade, brutal
insurgency. These extremists oppose more than the current
Administration; they threaten Nigerian democracy. Large parts of the
country now lie outside the authority and control of federal government.
People in these areas are more cognizant of the extremists’ senseless
violence than they are assured of the government’s ability to stop it.
15. There has been energetic debate whether poverty or a distorted
Islamic radicalism feeds Boko Haram’s emergence. The debate is
unnecessary. Both are factors. Poverty is a terrible weight that most of
its sufferers bear silently. What rankles is not simply poverty but
poverty occasioned by injustice. When young people concluded that their
lives are finished before they start and that the reason for this is the
corruption of government and established leaders, enter radical and
violent ideas about Islam as the wrecking ball to tear down the corrupt
edifice. Without this combustive mixture of poverty and injustice, Boko
Haram would be a fringe movement with a few members engaged in petty
crime. Because of this combination, Boko Haram is a socio-political
reality with many members and even more sympathizers. Boko Haram is
succeeding in its agenda to upend Nigeria. Not only has it challenged
government authority across the North, it has revived ethno-religious
antagonisms that were better left buried.
16. In the face of this
threat, government has been ambivalent. One day, government states it
will forcibly deal with the group. The next day government leans toward
negotiations. Although this problem has been with us for some time,
policy coordination remains ineffective. Because Government fears
decisive action will produce political fallout, they have resolved to be
irresolute. Thus, government has done little except leave an
over-stretched and under-equipped police force, backed by army units in
the most heavily-scarred locations, to respond to Boko Haram attacks and
dispel their cells. The most one can say is that government policy is
one of soft containment. This has proven to be ineffective, and perhaps
counter-productive.
17. Government must realize BH is more than a
law enforcement problem. It is a socio-political threat of such
magnitude that confronting it can no longer be subservient to crass
political calculations. Government must operate on a grander scale.
While I do not fully agree with Assistant Secretary Carson’s proposal to
create a Ministry of Northern Nigeria, I endorse the implication
central to his recommendation: bold, strategic innovation is required.
18. Correct policy must be twofold. First, it must protect the people
from repeated attacks. Second, it must weaken the extremist
organization. Clandestine groups of this nature are comprised of
factions of hardliners, pragmatists and casual followers. The task at
hand is to drive a wedge between the other sub-groups and the
hardliners. The pragmatists will be amenable to negotiation and
reintroduction into society. As a socio-political solution is being
fashioned in a way that reduces the number, operational breadth and
political strength of BH, government can then treat the reduced number
of hardliners as more strictly a law enforcement matter. What follows
are important suggestions that government should explore to achieve
these objectives:
A. Improve local community-based information-gathering and sharing.
B. Enhance local conflict resolution measures.
C. Deploy adequate and trained security personnel and establish community policing
D. Compel better coordination of intelligence among security agencies
E. Set up local human rights monitoring groups.
F. Create employment and economic opportunities.
G. Open dialogue with the pragmatists and local opinion-makers.
H.Provide feeding lunch in primary and high schools to take children off the streets
I. Direct support to the farmers; combined with skills development programs for the unemployed.
Economic Policy: The Richer the Nation, the Poorer the People?
19. The vast difference between the government’s economic outlook and
that of my party was manifest in government’s mishandling of the fuel
subsidy removal. Government revealed a preference for fiscal austerity
that would increase costs paid by the private sector thus deflating
aggregate demand at a time when the private sector was stagnant and more
deserving of fiscal stimulus than in need of restraint. The public
eruption that followed government’s decision transcended the fuel
subsidy. This decision and the public’s reaction were about the
relationship between government and the people and about the primary
objective of government’s role in the economy. It was about whom, among
the Nigeria’s various social classes, did government most value. This
was why mass demonstrations occurred in major cities throughout the
land. The protests were not because people would spend more for gas. The
protests were because people felt betrayed.
20. Government’s
decision to remove the subsidy was made simply because this government
saw more value in “making” money than in “saving” the hard-pressed
masses. In other words, the people were not worth the expenditure. By
seeking to end the subsidy, government breached the social contract for
no compelling reason. Months before the fateful decision, the opposition
met with the government and warned it about the dangers of its
approach. Instead of attacking the subsidy because it affronted economic
orthodoxy, government should have weighed the actual political and
economic benefits of the expenditure. The opposition insisted that there
must be conditions precedent. My party was not wedded to the subsidy
but was wedded to the maintenance of a comparable level of investment in
public on social programs. We suggested a plan whereby the subsidy
would be methodically phased out and the people compensated with
investment in public transportation, primary health care, and
infrastructural development. Complementing this would have been a public
affairs strategy fully explaining to the people that the change was not
to breach the social contract but to improve it.
21. The starting
point should have been a calculation of the amount government could
afford to spend on the general welfare given the level of overall
national economic activity and the constraints imposed on government
expenditure by inflation. Ignoring our counsel, government lifted the
subsidy by stealth. Government also deployed armed soldiers to deter
further protests. This episode reveals the vast difference between
opposition and government economic policy. The priority of fiscal policy
should be the maximum improvement of the overall economy. Fiscal
surpluses or deficits are but tactics to achieve this objective. Sadly,
government has elevated a mere tactic to the status of the primary
objective.
22. The Nigerian economy is characterized by idle human
capacity and thus suppressed aggregate demand. Government fiscal policy
has a significant role to play in putting the idle to work. The current
administration seeks the path of austerity. This will push Nigeria into
the same predicament the United Kingdom and the Euro zone now face.
Government expenditure is needed to stimulate the economy up to the
point where the growth of inflation does not cause such damage that it
erases the benefit derived from the additional expenditure.
23.
Last, we need to reform the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation
(NNPC) and the labyrinth of agencies that nurse at its udder. The
current Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB, is not the right effective
prescription. For instance, the bill yields too much power to the
Minister of Petroleum. Furthermore, some parts of the bill makes the oil
sector even more fertile ground for corruption and patronage. The bill
should be amended so that the NNPC functions like a duly regulated
publicly owned and publicly traded company. This will minimize the
opaqueness that now characterizes company operations. Earned revenues
will then be used for their stated purpose and not some one’s private
political end. Also, the PIB needs to be recalibrated in order to strike
a fairer balance between the needs and objectives of international oil
companies and the needs of Nigeria. The Brazilian experience with
Petrobras and the success made of it is here instructive. Norway is
flourishing today because of transparency in its oil industry
operations.
If we can take these aforementioned steps, government
will promote growth that benefits ordinary Nigerians. If we continue as
we are, the Nigerian economy will cement into a highly bifurcated,
unjust one where a small elite enjoys the fruit of life while the
majority of Nigerians participate on the losing side of a life-long
contest against poverty.
24. Electoral Reform: Less Than Meets the Eye
As a result of agitation by the opposition after the 2007 elections,
the late President Yar’Adua inaugurated the Electoral Reform Committee.
Chaired by former Chief Justice, Muhammed Uwais, the Committee produced a
comprehensive report enumerating 83 substantive recommendations. With
this document, Nigeria has the blue print needed for electoral reform.
Key recommendations dealt with ensuring the independence of the
Electoral Commission and of creating an electoral process less
vulnerable to manipulation. If implemented in full, the report would
have radically transformed the political landscape, placing Nigeria on
the path to fair elections and legitimate democracy. Save for the
replacement of the INEC chairman, only few of the recommendations were
enacted.
25. The 2011 elections were better than the 2007 edition.
However, they were not of the outstanding quality government and many
international observers claimed. In a way, international observers did
Nigeria a disservice. Expecting the worst, they unduly applauded the
modest improvement that took place in 2011. Observers should not have
been taken in by the orderliness of the ballot casting at the local
polling booth. In Nigeria, the ordinary people have always done their
part. The people are ready for democracy. It is the most powerful
faction of the political elite that is not. Your observers did see what
happened before Election Day or after the polls closed. Observers judged
a complicated electoral play solely by viewing one of its several acts.
If they had observed more carefully, they would have seen that hundreds
of members of the opposition were beaten, several others killed and
scores detained simply for carrying the membership card of the wrong
party. In parts of the country, it effectively became a crime to be a
member of the opposition. In many parts of the country, the voting
tallys were so inflated as to embarrass the less flagrant agents of
malpractice in the ruling party.
This is a truer picture of the 2011
elections than the tidy fable widely disseminated. The negative
consequence of the overinflated measure is that the bar has been set too
low for subsequent elections. Those in power believe they do not need
to improve the process. This would be a gross miscalculation. Should
subsequent elections be of the same dismal quality, there could be an
eruption that bypasses the court system as the best means for resolving
the egregious malpractices.
26. Although facing this stacked deck,
the ACN registered electoral gains. Made anxious by our victories, the
PDP has determined that we shall not win another contest where they
field the incumbent. In this vein, the lone reform they promoted since
the 2011 election was a measure terminating electoral complaints 180
days after their filing. Rarely do cases get heard within the time
allotted by the new provision. This means most cases will ultimately be
dismissed on a feeble technicality. All the guilty party need do is to
stall court proceedings, which is an easy feat in Nigeria. If this law
had previously existed, the successful complaints lodged by the
opposition in Ekiti, Osun, Edo and Ondo states after the 2007 elections
would have been rejected on technical grounds. The criminality of those
who actually lost the contests and rigged the vote tally would have been
rewarded by granting them the highest office in their states. Let me
state unequivocally, that the 180-day law is an imposition against the
just disposition of electoral disputes. It is a cynical use of the law
to protect the corrupt hijacking of the electoral process and the
electorate will. The ruling party, PDP has used the tyranny of its
majority in the Parliament to abrogate the electoral rights of Nigerians
to fair hearing. The opposition will be relentless in the fight to
upturn this unjust law.
27. What the new 180-day law does is to
first strike fear in the minds of citizens that legitimate petitions
will fail and then create doubts about the electoral system and the
dispensation of justice. Ultimately, this could lead to people pouring
out on the streets to resolve electoral disputes or simply resorting to
other means of self-help. (Ladies and gentlemen, I restate that what
this law has done is to circumscribe one of the fundamental human rights
of the Nigerian people.)
28. Centralists versus Federalists
In reaction to opposition gains at the state level, the current
Administration has embarked on a program to consolidate more power in
the federal government. It seeks a constitutional amendment shifting the
control over local government funds from the States to the federal
government. This effort mocks federalism and is not endorsed by
substantive logic except the logic of a naked power play. By controlling
the finances of local governments, the federal government will acquire
greater power while undermining state governments.
29. Another
blatant encroachment against federalism is the establishment of the
Sovereign Wealth Fund, (SWF). This is another instance where the
international community has done Nigeria a disservice by applauding the
Nigerian model of SWF. Under this set-up, the federal government uses as
it wishes funds belonging to the States. As such, the mechanism
violates the constitution. It is doubletalk for the international
community to claim support for the rule of law in Nigeria then encourage
the federal government to rupture the constitution. Our constitution
mandates that revenues are completely allocated to the federal, state
and local governments. The SWF amounts to an illegal confiscation of
state and local funds by the federal government. If the SWF is allowed
to stand, the federal government will be free to concoct subsequent
excuses to withhold additional funds from the states. In time,
federalism will erode because the fiscal independence of the States will
become fiction.
30. Rule of Law: Where is it?
Demonstrating
its preoccupation with remaining in power, the PDP government has
engaged in a sustained attack against the rule of law. Starting with the
Obasanjo administration to the present, its disregard for the judiciary
and the rule of law has become the stuff of political legend in
Nigeria. When confronted with an adverse judicial decision, the PDP
government does what authoritarians do; they act as if the court does
not exist and as if the decision was never made. This makes ruling much
easier for them but makes democracy less real for the rest of us. If a
judge has the temerity to deliver a few decisions in harmony with the
rule of law but against them, our rulers do not accept this in good
faith. They are prone to discipline the honest jurist. Thus, one year
ago, the government suspended Court of Appeals President Salami because
he had the courage to follow the law. Salami’s wrong was that he did
right. Despite several panels of eminent jurists exonerating him of any
impropriety, the government of Jonathan Goodluck has refused to respect
the verdict of the law by reinstating him. An innocent and upright judge
has been made to suffer. This shoddy treatment of a senior judge has a
chilling effect on the rest of the judiciary. By effectively dismissing
Salami, the government intends a strong caution to other judges: “Apply
the law to us and you are in trouble. Do as we wish, your position on
the bench shall be assured.”
31. This government cannot prosecute a
war on corruption. To do so would require the government to mainly fight
itself. That is why the EFCC, though being headed by a core
professional and a team of experienced hands operates with little
independent discretion. There is undue interference from the Ministry of
Justice and the Presidency. Thus, cases are initiated but never
finished. People are arrested but never effectively tried. Sometimes,
they are let go with a only a slap on the wrist. It is mostly theatre
and little fact. Someone recently quipped that the current
administration has a unique way of minimizing corruption. It allows a
choice few to make away with such a king’s ransom that everyone else who
would consume at the government trough is forced into honesty because
there is nothing left to take.
Additionally, the PDP government
efforts at constitutional reform are confined to the aim of securing
political power. They seek to abuse their majorities in the national and
state assemblies to ram through amendments solidifying their grip on
power. For instance, they are nursing an amendment proposing to rotate
the Presidency among the nation’s six geopolitical zones so that during
any given election only candidates from the anointed region can contest
for office. I have referred to this as “Turn by Turn” politics. It is an
untoward attempt to impose the PDP’s sordid interparty arrangement on
the nation. The provision negates democracy. The people should always be
afforded the right to vote for whomever they desire. Everyone should be
allowed to contest for office and not be barred simply because their
place of origin does not accord with someone else’s timetable.
32.
We need to discuss our future, if necessary conduct a referendum on a
number of issues that are germane to our future development. The idea
that a ruling party can use its bogus majority in the National Assembly
to tamper with the constitution and abrogate the right of Nigerians to
vote and be voted for, to fair hearing alter the independence of the
judiciary and promote division among the citizenry cannot chart a path
to progress and development. Governance at the national level has veered
too far off course. Tinkering around the constitution’s edges cannot
provide the needed corrective measures. To most of us, the Jonathan
Administration appears like the dazed captain using a teaspoon to bail
water from his sinking vessel. We require a National Conference for two
important reasons:
First, the present constitution was never
established by the people. It is the handiwork of the military. A
constitution that was forced on us does not have the requisite
legitimacy needed for such a complex, diverse nation. The past thirteen
years have revealed important flaws in the constitutional structure,
namely the capacity of the federal executive to arrogate the powers of
other governmental institutions. The exclusive legislative list is too
large and overbearing. The states have suffered as a result. So have
civil liberties. We need to drastically overhaul the constitution to
provide for a more perfect federal system that restrains the ability of
the federal executive to encroach on the prerogatives of other
institutions and on individual liberties.
CONCLUSION
Nigeria
has entered a troubling period. Government which is supposed to resolve
the nation’s challenges now does the reverse. President Jonathan may
have won the 2011election. However, since then, his errant policies have
awakened the people to the grave mistake they made when they handed him
the staff of office. If an election were held today, Jonathan would not
win. To all Nigerians, his Administration has been a disappointment. If
it continues as is, they will come to see it as a manifold disaster. By
his policies; political and economic, the people believe he has turned
his back on them, that he has broken the contract between the government
and the governed. If given a viable alternative, they are more than
ready to turn their back on him and his party. The opposition now is
ready to provide that alternative.
Political competition in Nigeria
is no longer primarily driven by personal rivalry or ethnic
considerations. Democratic policy and principle drive the politics of my
party. On one side, there stands the PDP and its governing aristocracy.
Their vision for the nation is neither caring nor democratic. Their
vision is to impress the vast majority into the service of small elite.
They seek a Nigeria that is modern in appearance yet quasi-medieval in
the relationship between the governing elite and the governed masses.
On the other side, stands the progressive opposition that seeks a more
democratic, decentralized political structure as well as an open economy
that creates more opportunities for those Nigerians who live below the
crushing poverty line. Yet, Nigerians are not a sadistic lot. They know
what they want and the kind of good governance such as we have in the
six states controlled by the Action Congress of Nigeria they can deliver
good governance. Nigerians will vote wisely but fear that an
Independent Electoral Commission where card carrying members of the
ruling party are appointed Resident Electoral Commissioners, (REC), will
manipulate their votes.
I have no delusions. The task of developing
Nigeria will be hard. The task of unseating the current party in power
may even be harder. Yet, for the good of Nigeria, the opposition must
persevere, the international community must support Nigeria in the
renewed struggle to ensure the sanctity of the ballot box, foster
respect for the rule of law and to build democratic and economic
institutions that will endure. I thank you for listening.
pmnews.
