The
cost of a measure or 'mudu’ of beans reached a never-before-seen price
of N500 (five hundred naira) a week ago. For most Nigerians families,
beans and its derivatives like 'akara' and 'moi-moi' are the richest
source of nutrients and very often the only source of proteins – meat,
fish, milk and eggs having disappeared from their
menus long ago.
The new price of
beans means that if a small family on minimum wage buys two 'mudus' or
measures per week, they would spend N4,000 per month, or a staggering
20% of family income on a single food item.
Being locally grown and readily
available, beans is known in virtually all Nigerian homes and is
consumed by most. But with such a high price, this important staple may
also vanish from the list of affordable food items for many families.
What makes the situation doubly alarming is the fact that the beans
stock currently in the market was harvested last year, when by most
accounts, farmers had a comparatively rich harvest. This year, tens of
thousands of Nigeria’s farmlands are under water, having been inundated
by floods from heavy rainfall and releases of water from some dams.
Beans is only a metaphor for the
impending food shortages across Nigeria, worsened by the floods which
devastated large swathes of farmland from Adamawa to Jigawa, Bauchi,
Plateau, Benue, Kaduna, Kogi to Cross Rivers, Imo, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi,
Edo, Delta and Taraba states. Apart from the loss of lives and
disruptions of travel and commercial activity, thousands of Nigerians
have suddenly become internally displaced and cut from their
livelihoods. With little or nothing to harvest, the price of practically
all food crops eaten by Nigerians would double or quadruple.
Another implication of the damaged
infrastructure caused by the flooding is that what little produce and
livestock that survived the flooding may not be able to reach their
traditional markets, thus resulting in higher costs to the consumer.
Reports indicate that one of Nigeria’s most important food producing
areas - the Hadejia Basin has been substantially washed away by the
floods. Large parts of Benue State, ‘the food basket of the nation’ also
experienced flooding and loss of produce and farmlands. While we count
the visible losses in terms of lives, property, farmlands, livestock and
critical infrastructure, the worst effects of the flooding may only
manifest next year and beyond because this year’s harvest is effectively
lost, and the fact that flooded communities and farmlands take years
and even longer to recover, if at all.
Prolonged rains have done a lot of
damage to substitute crops that in lean periods might mitigate the
situation. These are largely millets, sorghum and maize. All the three
missed out sunlight at critical times as the rains kept pouring in high
intensity and without respite. Again, the rains persisted when the crops
needed to be dried for storage. Both incidences have upped post harvest
losses, further reducing supply of carbohydrates to make up for the
anticipatory shortage of beans. Worse still the poor would compete with
the breweries, livestock feeds and food processing companies, as well as
our neighboring countries, for the scarce supplies that would be
released to the markets.
Another aspect that government seems
unwilling to confront is the number of farmers that have abandoned
their farms in the North East and parts of North West. The case is
particularly desperate in Yobe and parts of Borno, Bauchi and Gombe
States. It is also important to ask why government chose to ignore flood
warnings issued by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) until the
situation got out of hand. At the moment, NIMET has forecast another
round of flooding in 16 states of the federation. What is the FG doing
and how would all these factors impact on food security?
The agricultural sector had
consistently been above 7% in terms of growth for the previous decade,
but it collapsed in 2011 and is not forecasted to grow by more than 4%
this year as a result of the floods and the failure of the Jonathan's
voucher system of fertilizer subsidization. Agricultural production is
unfortunately but likely to suffer a double whammy this year and next
for these reasons unless we get luckier.
A serious government should not only
be concerned, but should by now be taking proactive measures to
ameliorate the now inevitable food shortages, as well as help farmers to
resettle, while seeking more lasting solutions to flooding. Already,
the price of bread has gone up by about a quarter this year. With major
cassava producing states under flood, even President Jonathan’s joke
about cassava bread may turn out to be another bite of empty air for
many Nigerians.
Before this year’s devastating
floods, Nigeria’s agricultural value was worth about N15 trillion, as
against its true potential of N40 trillion. There was already a gap of
about N25 trillion. What makes the situation saddening is that we have
about 50 million farmers and abundant land and water resources, but out
of an estimated 3 million hectares of land that can be irrigated, only
about 60,000 hectares is currently irrigated. Out of about 323 dams on
the country, only a few are used for irrigation purposes. No figures
exist yet for the true costs this year’s floods, but it would be in the
trillions of naira.
Last year, Nigeria spent N635
billion to import wheat; N356 billion on rice, N217 billion on sugar and
N97 billion on fish, but it may not be that easy to solve our food
shortages by simply resorting to importing food; several parts of the
world’s most fertile food producing regions’ have also been inundated,
or in the case of the United States, suffering from the worst drought in
decades. Niger Republic – from where Nigeria imports large amounts of
the beans we consume has also suffered flooding; Russia had to suspend
wheat exports for a while. Globally, the price of food has gone up by
about 10%, with experts predicting more increases.
Niger Republic avoided hunger in the
last two years through intensive use of irrigation. The strategy not
only reduced the country’s reliance on imports but it also created a new
industry as well as significantly raised income levels in the affected
areas. Despite our country’s vast irrigation infrastructure and
irrigable farmlands, the food imports mafia is likely going to coerce
President Jonathan into expensive food imports that millions of
Nigerians in both rural and urban areas will not be able to afford. This
strategy, by refusing to put to work assets owned by the poor in form
of irrigable farms and wetlands all over Nigeria would be the same
strategy that while increasing poverty in rural Nigeria, would
concurrently increase income levels of the few local moguls and their
Asian collaborators in the rice, wheat, stock fish, and tomato paste
import businesses.
For the over 112 million Nigerians
living in poverty, what would the situation be like next year when rural
residents and farmers would have eaten what little of their stored
foods which were not destroyed by the flood? How many Nigerian families
would face starvation simply because they cannot afford even the most
basic food stuff? Currently, Nigeria is ranked a very poor 80 out of
about 200 countries in terms of food security. Which government can talk
of safety of lives and property when tens of millions of citizens are
hungry?
Government should not wait until Nigerians start dropping dead
from hunger before acting. Efforts must be made to avoid the chaos that
would follow any government backed massive importation of food because
the process will be abused like the fuel subsidy regime. Indeed, one
cannot rule out the emergence of a food subsidy cabal that will
replicate the corruption that still trails the fuel subsidy cabal.
(Incidentally, everybody seems to have forgotten the 2.6 trillion that
was stolen by that cabal).
Nigeria must take urgent action to
manage the impending national food shortages, inflated food prices and
possible malnutrition for millions of families. One would expect
government to consider these critical posers: what is the extent of
damage to farmlands and agriculture? What is the quantity of livestock
lost? How many Nigerian families are at risk of hunger and malnutrition?
What is the quantity of grains left in our Strategic Grain Reserve and
functional silos nationwide? What quantity of food do we need to import,
from where and at what cost.
A government with vision would take
immediate measures to protect millions of vulnerable Nigerians from the
effects of rising food costs, hunger and malnutrition, while considering
long term measures to rebuild damage infrastructure, incentivize
farmers and improve the agricultural sector. In the 2013 budget
proposal, agriculture has been allocated only N80bn against the
background of the challenges the sector faces. What is the thinking of
government? Obviously, it is yet to appreciate the enormity of the
looming food security problems. With a meager 35% for infrastructure and
other capital investments, we have not even started.
If millions of Nigerian families are
already facing hunger because of government inactivity and misplaced
spending priorities, imagine what it would be like at the turn of this
century – when all our oil would have dried up, or when technology would
have made fossil fuels redundant? By that time, Nigeria would have a
population of over 700 million. We hope that the governments of those
days will be better and more proactive than the ones we see today.
Elombah.com
Consultant
Psychiatrist at the Federal Medical Central (FMC), Bida, Dr. Oladipo
Adepoju, has expressed regrets over astronomical increase in mental
cases across the country in recent time when compared to the years past.
