Why Incumbents Often Win

By: Aniebo Nwamu 

Conducting elections is one huge irritant that has been overheating the nation’s polity. I can’t remember any time since 1999 we’ve enjoyed a respite. Yet, each round of elections has been a fraud. Why do we keep wasting our scarce resources on meaningless elections that cause us to lose even more funds? If that is democracy, then, democracy is the worst form of government.

In the run-up to the 2011 polls, I begged INEC chairman Attahiru Jega to return the N84billion or so he had been given to the treasury. An accurate audit of the polls is near-impossible, but I guess over N200billion was wasted that year on “elections”. And what they produced? Almost a thousand people killed in post-election violence, heightened insecurity across the country and more Nigerians slipping into the poverty cesspool. The nation has not recovered; it is sinking deeper as 2015 approaches.

Let us therefore reason together. Rather than waste perhaps N500billion more on elections that can only create more instability, more rancour, and more deaths, let’s find a better way of selecting our leaders.  I can state authoritatively that the 2015 “elections” have been concluded already: the votes have been counted and we are only waiting for INEC to announce the results. The politicians’ influence is telling on the news media too. Every day, headlines are donated to divisive characters that have never contributed anything to this country – except pain. See how our national politics has been reduced to what one Ijaw leader said and Arewa’s reply.

The other day, it was a group of “south-south and middle-belt leaders” led by Chief EK Clark joining forces to endorse President Jonathan’s candidacy in 2015. The group comprising “northerners” like Gen. Lawrence Onoja and Senator Wash Pam went to the villa to “persuade” the president to run, prompting the northern socio-political group, Arewa Consultative Forum, to allege that it’s the president’s plan to divide the north.

I believe the 2015 election is over because INEC is not prepared to conduct free and fair polls; it is never ready. Today, there is no authentic voter register and there won’t be one up until the eleventh hour, as usual. And, in a non-credible poll, the incumbent always stands to win, or else… The Nigeria Governors’ Forum election held on May 24 should serve as a reminder. Asking an incumbent government to supervise free and fair polls in this country is like asking it to wage war on itself. So why are we deceiving ourselves?

The “war” may be shifting to the floor of the National Assembly where some spoilers are hoping to adopt a new constitution that will prevent the incumbent president and governors from benefiting from a six-year single tenure. Again, I expect President Jonathan to win this “war”, and, should he lose, nothing stops his kinsman DSP Alamieyeseigha from stepping in! This is a great country indeed. 

If angels were sent from heaven to conduct free and fair elections here, few of the current politicians would be elected. But they would get substantial votes because they have more money to share, too many voters are impoverished and most of those that could make right choices do not even have voter cards. So, the opposition parties or politicians seeking to dethrone the incumbents should tackle the election process and reawaken apathetic voters.

They can’t accomplish either, without first raising enough money to match the funds controlled by guardians of the public treasuries. Where will such money come from?  Even if a benevolent foreign power sent it to the opposition, would greed and clannishness allow them to deploy it wisely? When chieftains of the ruling PDP say that the emerging APC will break in one year, that’s what they mean. The struggle over sharing of party positions and candidates would be a child’s play. Knowing all these, then, I suggest that we spend the next two years at a (sovereign) national conference writing a new constitution. Let INEC be dismantled.

The money that would have been wasted on elections can fix the country’s electricity problem. And let nobody tell me that any such step would be in conflict with the law. Have we been observing the law all along? Creativity pays.

A More Realistic War On Terror

Many cynics see the current inflated budget for defence (upwards of N1.5trillion per year) as the outcome of a conspiracy of gangsters that created the terrorism industry in Nigeria. After all, security-vote managers thrive most in times of crisis! Until I listened to the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) on Friday, I didn’t really consider such viewpoint foolish.

I have wondered whether anybody in the presidential villa has a workable plan for ending terrorism in the country. Is it just a matter of fishing for Boko Haram, clamping kidnap suspects in jail and shooting Niger Delta militants? Are the security forces ready to kill more than 20 million street children and young adults or, as the latest statistic suggests, 10.5 million out-of-school kids in Nigeria? With the nation’s economy closing up, with more than 80 per cent of youths unemployed or underemployed, and with over 120 million Nigerians living in penury, the rate of crime and hopelessness can only grow higher.

It appears some people have been thinking in the right direction. However, I won’t praise them until I see the plan presented by Dr Fatima Akilu, director, behavioural analysis and strategic communication in the ONSA, put into action. Based on the strength of the blueprint, the national security adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (rtd), deserves high marks. At least, it’s very realistic.

Fighting terror, as the America-trained psychologist (Dr Akilu) explained, is not all about hunting for Boko Haram but about understanding the psychology of the group, rehabilitating former insurgents and preventing future insurgents. De-radicalising them will, of course, require education and good programmes that can put food on the table. I have stated several times that stomach security is the ultimate security. To this could be added: good governance that entails eradicating corruption, creating jobs and ensuring social justice.

I also agree with Dr Akilu and her boss NSA Dasuki that the best deterrent for terrorism is to not let it take root in the country. I’m not sure we’ve not missed the mark already: how long will it take to rehabilitate 20 million hungry, unschooled, unemployable young adults who have been indoctrinated into believing that crime pays better than hard work? No doubt, we’re in for the long haul. It may take five or even 10 years before we start seeing the results of the ONSA’s efforts; that is, if the blueprint is ever implemented.

Leadership

PDP faces imminent collapse, says ex-VP Atiku

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has called on concerned founding fathers of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to speak up and come together to save the party from imminent troubles capable of leading to avoidable implosion and mortal crisis.

In a statement by his Media Office in Abuja, Atiku said he was particularly disturbed by the worsening polarization of the party and internal divisions which might weaken the party structures at the states and deepen the crisis between Governors and the President.

The former Vice President explained that as one of the founding fathers of the party, he had a duty to call on other founding members to rise to the occasion and caution the forces that are bent on tearing the party apart and providing the ammo for self-destruction.

He lamented the failure of the National Executive Council (NEC) to meet in line with the provisions of the party’s constitution and the inability of the Board of Trustees to rise to the occasion of arresting this ugly development.

According to him, the bitter internal divisions within the PDP, has led to crisis in the party leadership in some states, division in the Nigeria Governors’ Forum and   the suspension of a sitting Governor over disagreements on principle could have been avoided if the founders of the party had added their voices of caution and moderation.

With the challenges of providing good governance and the bid for re-election in 2015, Atiku noted that the PDP could not afford the current acrimony as it is undermining democratic structures at all levels.

He warned that if the crisis was left to get out of hand or not properly managed, the PDP might find itself weaker and politically vulnerable.

According to Atiku, a house divided against itself could not stand, adding that silence by concerned PDP stakeholders was a dangerous option at this point when the party faces the challenges of retaining its leadership in 2015.

PremiumTimes

Article of Faith: The Problem With Paul (1), By Femi Aribisala

Femi Aribisala

“Of this band of dupes and imposters, Paul was the great Coryphaeus, and the first corrupter of the doctrines of Jesus.” (Thomas Jefferson)

Jesus says his sheep know his voice and follow him: “They will by no means follow a stranger, but will flee from him, for they do not know the voice of strangers.” (John 10:5).  Paul’s voice is the voice of a stranger.  When you point this out to Pauline Christians, they lose all rationality and become abusive.  Jesus says: “By the mouth of two or three witnesses every word may be established.” (Matthew 18:16).  Listen to these eminent bible scholars.  Surely, they are not all as ignorant and unspiritual as I am.
False disciple
William Wrede, famous German Lutheran theologist, observes in his book “Paul:” “The moral majesty of Jesus, his purity and piety, his ministry among his people, his manner as a prophet, the whole concrete ethical-religious content of his earthly life, signifies for Paul’s Christology nothing whatever.  The name ‘disciple of Jesus’ has little applicability to Paul.  Jesus or Paul: this alternative characterizes, at least in part, the religious and theological warfare of the present day.”
In the book “Christ or Paul?” the Reverend V.A. Holmes-Gore writes: “Let the reader contrast the true Christian standard with that of Paul and he will see the terrible betrayal of all that the Master taught.  For the surest way to betray a great Teacher is to misrepresent his message.  That is what Paul and his followers did, and because the Church has followed Paul in his error it has failed lamentably to redeem the world.  If we apply to Paul the test ‘by their fruits ye shall know them’ it is abundantly clear that he was a false prophet.”
Soren Kierkegaard, Danish Christian philosopher and theologian, observes in “The Journals:” “What Martin Luther, in his reformation, failed to realize is that even before Catholicism, Christianity had become degenerate at the hands of Paul. Paul made Christianity the religion of Paul, not of Christ. Paul threw the Christianity of Christ away, completely turning it upside down; making it just the opposite of the original proclamation of Christ.”  Miguel de Unamuno, Spanish essayist, novelist and playwright, writes in “The Agony of Christianity:” “During Christ’s lifetime, Paul would never have followed (Jesus).”
Dubious gospel
Frederick Engels, German philosopher and father of Marxist theory, writes in “On the History of Early Christianity:” “Attempts have been made to conceive all the messages of John’s Revelation/Apocalypse as directed against Paul, the false Apostle. The so-called Epistles of Paul are not only extremely doubtful but also totally contradictory.”
Mahatma Gandhi, the renowned Indian prophet of nonviolence, in an essay titled “Discussion on Fellowship”, writes: “I draw a great distinction between the Sermon on the Mount of Jesus and the Letters of Paul.  Paul’s Letters are a graft on Christ’s teachings, Paul’s own gloss apart from Christ’s own experience.”
Bishop John S. Spong, Episcopal Bishop of Newark, New Jersey, USA, writes in his book, “Rescuing the Bible from Fundamentalism:” “Paul’s words are not the Words of God. They are the words of Paul- a vast difference.”  Rudolf Bultman, a theologian, writes in his “Significance of the Historical Jesus for the Theology of Paul:” “It is most obvious that Paul does not appeal to the words of the Lord in support of his views.  When the essentially Pauline conceptions are considered, it is clear that Paul is not dependent on Jesus.  Jesus’ teaching is- to all intents and purposes- irrelevant for Paul.”
Impostor
Thomas Jefferson, third president of the United States and author of the Declaration of Independence; writes in his “Letter to William Short:” “Of this band of dupes and imposters, Paul was the great Coryphaeus, and the first corrupter of the doctrines of Jesus.”
H.G. Wells, famous English science-fiction writer, observes in “The Outline of History:” “It is equally a fact in history that St. Paul and his successors added to or completed or imposed upon or substituted another doctrine for- as you may prefer to think-  the plain and profoundly revolutionary teachings of Jesus by expounding a subtle and complex theory of salvation, a salvation which could be attained very largely by belief and formalities, without any serious disturbance of the believer’s ordinary habits and occupations.”
Gene Savoy, American theologian and clergyman, declares in his “The Essaei Document:” “Paul’s Christianity is another matter. He taught a different kind of theology than that shared by the original disciples who were schooled under Jesus.  Paul was the father of Pagan Christianity; a movement based on a concept completely foreign to Jesus.  The teachings of Jesus the Messiah were overshadowed by the teachings of Paul.”
Thomas Cosette, a Christian scholar, writes in “Hebrew Prophecies of the Coming of Paul:” “This man Paul hijacked what is called the church. But he can only keep those who do not love the truth. Those who still have conscience and will compare his teaching and his testimony to Y’shva’s and the prophets without granting Paul’s testimony (is) the Word of God but (is) just another man’s testimony in light of Jesus’ teachings. Then they will discover that Paul usurps the truth.”
Patrick Henry writes in “New Directions in New Testament Study:” “There remains in the popular mind a strong suspicion that Paul corrupted Christianity (or even founded a different religion). Paul imported into the Christian community a form of religion characteristic of the ‘mysteries’ religious movements of initiation into secret rites and esoteric knowledge.”
Heretic
Walter Bauer, an eminent German theologian and scholar of the development of the early Christian churches, writes in his “Orthodoxy and Heresy in Earliest Christianity:” “If one may be allowed to speak rather pointedly the Apostle Paul was the only Arch-Heretic known to the apostolic age.”
Michael Baigent, author and speculative theorist declares in “The Dead Sea Scrolls Deception:” “Paul is in effect the first Christian heretic. Paul had never had such personal acquaintance with the figure he’d begun to regard as his ‘Savior.’ He had only his quasi-mystical experience in the desert and the sound of a disembodied voice. For him to arrogate authority to himself on this basis is, to say the least, presumptuous. It also leads him to distort Jesus’ teachings beyond recognition, to formulate, in fact, his own highly individual and idiosyncratic theology, and then to legitimize it by spuriously ascribing it to Jesus.”
Paul Johnson, English journalist, historian and author, writes in “A History of Christianity:” “Writings by Christian Jews of the decade of the 50′s AD present Paul as the Antichrist and the prime heretic. The Christology of Paul, which later became the substance of the universal Christian faith, was predicated by an external personage whom many members of the Jerusalem Church absolutely did not recognize as an Apostle.”
The last word belongs to Thomas Paine, one of the founding fathers of the United States.  He writes in “The Age of Reason:” “Paul’s writing is no better than the jargon of a conjurer who picks up phrases he does not understand to confound the credulous people who come to have their fortune told.”
Don’t just take Paul’s authenticity for granted because he happens to be in the bible.  Don’t just accept something because it is preached by your pastor in your church.  Find out the truth for yourself.  Your salvation depends on it.
To be Continued…
PremiumTimes

23 PDP govs plot to take over APC

A new challenge appears to be looming in the horizon for the fledgling All Peoples Congress (APC) as there are fears within the yet-to-be-registered party that the expected decampment of serving governors elected under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) could lead to a new power struggle in APC.

The APC hierarchy is expecting 23 governors from the ruling party to join its rank as soon as its registration as a political party by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is achieved.

However, an APC source who spoke to Sunday Tribune in Abuja on the condition of anonymity, feared that if this happens, the decamping PDP governors would outnumber the founding governors of the APC and were likely to have greater influence in the running of its affairs.

The source said that coming from the PDP, the incoming governors were also likely to stick together which could lead them to think along a line different from the original members of the APC.

“That is why we believe that great care must be taken in accepting the PDP governors whose mission is yet to be clearly defined,” the source volunteered.

Another source who was apprehensive that the APC would face numerous challenges on its way to becoming a political party, said: “let me add to it that even if they scale through the difficulties they currently face, they will have to deal with a couple of other issues.”

This, according to the source, includes how to change the constituent parties including the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) from there regional mentality to a national outlook like the PDP.

The source also observed that while the governors from the regional parties would always be willing to negotiate, the breakaway PDP governors might not be amenable to negotiation.

Meanwhile, the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) is hoping to cash in on the expected exodus of governors from the PDP to reposition itself within what they see as “the new PDP.”

A top member of the PDM confided in Sunday Tribune in Abuja on Saturday that it was quietly working on a new direction for the movement formed by the late Major General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua.

According to the PDM source, “there is an internal debate on whether PDM should become a party or remain a movement spurred on by their strength and number but the general consensus seems to point towards a further consolidation of the movement and an affinity with the new PDP, unless it rejects them.”

The source remarked that PDM, which it said boasts of the membership of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the Chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees (BoT), Chief Tony Anenih, had already turned itself into a third force in the political scheme of things as its members were scattered among the major political parties in the country.

“The only reason why it has been reactivated is because the members, though inside the PDP, feel isolated, at least, at the state level. This links directly with the governors and here is where PDP under Jonathan and the new PDM can find synergy. They both need weaker governors.

“Wherever they decide to go, their impact will be felt. Apart from PDP, nobody has a national structure in every ward and LGA in the country except PDM. Atiku (Abubakar) would be better off working with PDP than APC because the Northern governors will not be trustworthy and (Bola) Tinubu who was said to have done a deal in 2007 and 20111 may do one in 2015.”

In what appeared to be an approval of the ongoing effort to instill discipline in the PDP, the PDM source was of the view that the present crisis in the party might eventually work out in favour of President Goodluck Jonathan.

It posited: “PDP needs to define its friends and identify its enemies. The Governor’s Forum debacle may not have been bad for Jonathan after all. Now he knows who he can trust, who can deliver and who will fight him till the end.

Source: Tribune

APC: Facing a Critical Test

Promoters of the opposition merger face a critical test as they try to agree on the sharing of party positions, reports Vincent Obia

With promoters of the opposition merger party, All Progressives Congress, under pressure to constitute its executive committee, a basic condition for registration as a political party, their will to form Nigeria’s first successful opposition merger faces a big test. The Independent National Electoral Commission had, reportedly, demanded that the new party must have elected executives in place at the national, state and local government levels before it could be registered. But the hard part for the coalition parties – Action Congress of Nigeria, All Nigeria Peoples Party, Congress for Progressive Change, as well as factions of All Progressives Grand Alliance and Democratic Peoples Party – seems to be the formation of a national executive.

Difficult Talks
Sponsors of the merger have long been aware that a formal leadership structure is the key to APC’s registration as a political party. But the negotiations to form a national executive have just commenced in earnest, following their formal application for the registration of APC on June 7. Reports in the last fortnight said that the parties had agreed to share the core positions in an interim national executive committee in the following order: ACN, national chairman; CPC, national secretary; and ANPP, national treasurer.
But a meeting last week, which was part of a series of negotiations since almost two weeks, apparently, intended to herald the announcement of the interim national officers could not reach an agreement.  Chairman of the ACN Merger Committee and spokesman of the Joint Merger Committees, Chief Tom Ikimi, acknowledged their inability to strike a compromise. But he said the negotiations would continue at the caucuses of the merger partners, which will be relied on to hammer out an agreement.
“We have worked out various options which we want to take to the caucuses. We will meet with the leadership in our caucuses and finalise these matters.

“We have put in various structures to ensure that all the merging parties are taken along, and this we will discuss tonight. Every party has its own operandi. There is no time left now to unveil the national officers,” Ikimi told reporters on Tuesday.   
But national publicity secretary of CPC, Mr. Rotimi Fashakin, was reported as saying that the national officers of APC could not be announced after the meeting in Abuja on Tuesday because INEC had insisted on the expansion of the offices presented to it by the merger promoters in line with the APC constitution. 
He said efforts were being made to broaden the new party’s offices. “So we are working out the positions of deputy national chairman, secretary, treasurer, also national publicity secretary in collaboration with the merger committees and the working committees of the parties.”

The truth seems somewhere in-between.
INEC has made certain demands on the merger regarding its national leadership and headship at the other tiers of government. But agreeing on the occupants of the various offices, especially at the national level, appears to pose a challenge that sponsors of the merger party are struggling to overcome.

Intraparty Squabbles
The signs of disagreement became evident when leaders of ANPP reportedly began to protest what they called allocation of an inconsequential office to the party, despite being the second biggest party in the alliance, after ACN.
ANPP controls three states, namely, Borno, Yobe, and Zamfara; ACN, controls six states, namely, Oyo, Ogun, Lagos, Edo, Ekiti, and Osun; while CPC controls only Nasarawa State. But with the most visible promoters of the APC idea being the ACN national leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, and former CPC presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, (rtd.) there seems to be an attempt to place CPC above ANPP in the order of recognition within APC.

ANPP was said to have rejected a prior arrangement under which it was to be given the position of deputy national chairman in the APC interim leadership structure. Chairman of the ANPP Board of Trustees, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff, had argued that the party should be allowed to produce the interim national chairman of APC pending the conduct of elections into the various national offices.
But there seems to be an agreement that ACN should produce the APC national chairman, while CPC and ANPP produce the national secretary and national treasurer, respectively.

Yet, problems remain within the parties, despite attempts to conceal them. In ACN, Ikimi is said to be battling with the party’s national chairman, Chief Bisi Akande, over the occupation of the APC national chairmanship post. In CPC, which has the post of APC national secretary, former Minister of Federal Capital Territory, Mallam Nasir, el-Rufai, and the party’s national secretary, Mr. Buba Galadima, are fighting it out between them.
The APC leaders said the disagreements would be resolved before the end of last week. But the resolution appears to drag.

Acronym Hurdle
The opposition merger is also saddled with the unresolved problem of acronym, which a rival group, African Peoples Congress, is contesting. The group, which claimed to have applied to INEC for registration as a political party, on February 28, became the focus of national attention recently when the commission acknowledged receipt of its application. Amid the controversy raised by the rival APC, it emerged that yet another group with the same acronym, All Patriotic Citizens, had applied to INEC on March 8 for registration. While promoters of All Patriotic Citizens withdrew their application onMarch 22, citing “the ongoing controversy on the acronym APC,” INEC in a letter dated March 21, 2013 rejected the application of African Peoples Congress, saying the group did not include the names and addresses of its national officers as required by the constitution.

But chairman of African Peoples Congress, Chief Onyinye Ikeagwuonu, swiftly announced his group’s rejection of the commission’s decision. The group went to court to contest the refusal of its application by INEC. It asked the court to restrain INEC from entertaining any application by any group or person seeking registration of any political party bearing the name or acronym of the African Peoples Congress until the determination of the suit by the court.

African Peoples Congress said the court action was instituted on the strength of the provisions of Section 79 of the Electoral Act, which empowers any association denied registration as a political party by INEC to seek judicial review within 30 days of being notified by INEC.
Justice Gabriel Kolawole of the Federal High Court, Abuja, on April 30 endorsed the application of the African Peoples Congress to proceed with hearing on its suit seeking judicial review of the rejection of its application for registration as a political party by INEC.

INEC’s Slipperiness
Generally, the opposition merger’s hope of becoming a political party seems to be in a slippery situation and things could go either way. Besides the pending suit, INEC appears to maintain an unstable attitude towards the merger.
On March 11, chief press secretary to the chairman of Independent National Electoral Commission, Professor Attahiru Jega, Mr. Kayode Idowu, revealed that another group had applied to be registered as APC, an indication that the popular opposition merger with the acronym APC may have to look for another name. INEC later denied foreclosing the registration of the merger on the platform of APC.

But on March 23, Jega said in Kaduna that promoters of the opposition merger had delayed in declaring their intention to form a political party under the name of APC and must, therefore, choose another name. This, he said, was because another group had approached the commission with a plan to register a party under a similar name.

“The truth is that no political party has written to notify us that it is planning to merge with some other political parties until the past five days or so. Therefore, it is not true that we have been notified. The issue became serious when one group came out to seek registration. I guess that was what made them to write and notify us,” the INEC chairman said on the Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria, Kaduna, Hausa phone-in programme, Hanu Dayawa.

He said, “For registered political parties, who want to merge, they must have agreed to merge and each of the political parties in the merger must hold a convention and agree to withdraw their registration as a political party, to become part of the new party to be formed through the merger. After their conventions, they are expected to write and request INEC to withdraw their former registration and say they want to join a new party.”

At the moment, the merging parties have done all that and INEC has acknowledged it. But a combination of internal and external factors appears to still dog APC’s registration hopes. Leaders of the merger say they would soon overcome the difficulties. How soon this would be, only time can tell.   

ThisDay

Delta CPC affirms Chairman, others’suspension

By FESTUS AHON

DELTA State chapter of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, has re-affirmed the suspension of its Acting State Chairman, State Secretary, State Assistant Secretary, Mr. Precious Enuenweayol, Mr. Patrick  Emuobuvie and Mr. Aghogho Igini, respectively. Mr. Vincent Efeakpo was also suspended.

The stakeholders, who had earlier in a suspension letter to the National Secretariat of the party dated 7th of June, 2013, accused the state chairman and the three others of “engaging in anti-party activities and failure to hold meetings.”

Rising from a meeting held at Agbarho, Ughelli North Local Government Area, the party stakeholders said the suspension was aimed at salvaging the party from drifting.

The CPC,  in a communiqué signed by Engr. Raphael Oghene- Tobore, state Publicity Secretary, Mr. Ovoh Phillips, State Coordinator and Delta South Vice Chairman, Mr. Rex Okwa and 24 others, said: “We affirm that the suspension of the four officers was in order.”

Vanguard

2015: Who Will Defeat Jonathan? By Chido Onumah

Chido Onumah

Let me say from the outset that it would be scandalous and a grave mistake for the opposition – and by this, I refer to the All Progressives Congress (APC) – to look toward any of the gladiators in the current war of attrition in the People’s Democratic Party, Aminu Tambuwal, Babangida Aliyu, Sule Lamido, etc., as a candidate for the presidency in 2015. With all due respect to these men, and not minding the fact that there are PDP elements in the APC, it would not only smack of unseriousness, but would leave voters no choice in 2015.
Having exorcised the incubus of a PDP takeover of the opposition, let’s pose the fundamental question: who will defeat President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015? We need to pose this question frontally and be sincere in our answers. That is the only way the opposition can assess its strength and chances as we head into the battle of 2015.
Too often, we hear the beer parlour assertion that, “President Jonathan is incompetent; he has to go in 2015”. Clearly, President Jonathan has performed woefully; but when was the last time incompetence cost anybody reelection in Nigeria? It didn’t happen with Shehu Shagari in 1983; certainly, not with Olusegun Obasanjo in 2007.
What is needed, therefore, is a comprehensive strategy to defeat PDP in 2015. And top on the agenda would be the urgent need to market a national candidate who provides a clear and credible alternative to President Jonathan. If free and fair elections were held today (even though the PDP would never permit free and fair elections), chances are that President Jonathan will emerge victorious. I say this with all sense of responsibility.
This is not Nigeria of June 12, 1993, even though Bashir Tofa, the defeated presidential candidate of the National Republican Convention (NRC) in that election and now a chieftain of APC would want us to forget the election and its significance.
Of course, I sympathize with Tofa. I would bury any thoughts of that election if I had been in his position. It is not easy on one’s reputation and psyche running a presidential election and getting trounced in your home constituency. That must go down as one inglorious record for the Guinness World Records.
Back to reality. The country is fractured today as never before. There are still many out there who will vote on the basis of religion; many who will vote because of money, ethnicity and other mundane considerations. Of course, we have to grant them their right to poor judgment. That is the nature of democracy.
There are those who have argued, from their limited understanding of the issue, that one way of addressing the minorities’ question in Nigeria is for President Jonathan to go for a second term whether he deserves it or not. These are the issues that will come to play whether we accept them or not. It is this fracture – add money and rigging – that will determine the outcome of the 2015 election.
So, is the opposition ready to compete in 2015? The answer, of course, will depend on who you ask. Even though the PDP appears like a party that faces imminent implosion, the campaign for 2015 has started in earnest, the glib talk by the president and his handlers notwithstanding.
Nigerians are yearning for an alternative to Goodluck Jonathan; not just an alternative, but a credible alternative. Talking about the presidency in 2015, the APC, undoubtedly, is a party of immense potentials. But if elections were held today, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd) is perhaps the only person with the pedigree, name recognition and national appeal who can give President Jonathan and the PDP a run for their money.
However, Gen. Buhari has not shown enough statesmanship to make him a winning candidate across the country. By his actions and inaction, the former head of state seems to be saying, “I don’t need the vote of majority of Nigerians to be elected president”. Lately, Gen. Buhari has been assailed by those who accuse him of making “unguarded and insensitive” statements. His handlers have repeatedly affirmed that he is a victim; one who is misunderstood and often misquoted. It may well be true. Leaving aside the issue of his comments, the expectation is that for a man who has run for president thrice and plans a fourth attempt, Gen. Buhari ought to be much more visible and active across the country.
He ought to be out on the street either comforting victims of various acts of terror across the country and offering them hope and a new vision for Nigeria or dousing the perception that he is a provincial leader. He has earned that right. Perhaps he ought to take a cue from Uzor Orji Kalu, a man who should be on trial for his ruination of Abia State.
We may not like it, but the truth is that after 14 years in power the PDP has managed to reach every nook and cranny of the country. The opposition needs do much to ingrain in the mass of our people the need for a better and workable alternative.
Time is certainly running out.
Saharareportes

Globalising Media & Information Literacy
Next week (June 26-28), the global media and information literacy (MIL) movement will converge on Nigeria for the Global Forum for Partnerships on MIL (GFPMIL), incorporating the International Conference on MIL and Intercultural Dialogue.
With the theme “Promoting Media and Information Literacy as a Means to Cultural Diversity”, the conference which draws upon over 40 years of UNESCO’s experience in MIL, is a joint initiative of UNESCO, the Federal Ministry of Information, the Government of Saudi Arabia, the Swedish International Development Agency, the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations, and other key stakeholders around the world.
The GFPMIL will be a permanent mechanism and seeks to globally reposition MIL around the core objectives of: articulating key strategic partnerships to drive MIL development and impact globally focusing on seven development areas: 1) governance and citizenship; 2) education, teaching and learning; 3) linguistic and diversity intercultural dialogue; 4) women, disabled and other disadvantaged; 5) health and wellness; 6) business, industry, employment and economic development; 7) agriculture, farming, wildlife protection, forestry and natural resources conservation.
With Africa as a Global Priority for UNESCO, the International MIL and Intercultural Dialogue Conference will focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa and will be the first global partnership project in this domain. It will set the way forward for future partnerships, enabling the MIL community to speak as one voice on certain critical matters, particularly as it relates to policies.
Let’s hope that Nigeria’s participation will go beyond the conference to embrace this global phenomenon that seeks to provide the vital life skill for students and youth to become critical thinkers and consumers of information and media messages and, therefore, active participants in their societies.