Saturday, 20 July 2013

FG in cash trouble

 BY IFEANYI ONUBA AND GBENRO ADEOYE 


Coordinating Minister for the economy and Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
There are concerns in government circles that the country’s revenue projection for the 2013 fiscal year may not be realised.
Saturday PUNCH learnt that the gross oil revenue accruing to the Federation Account had dwindled seriously in recent times.
The drop in revenue has raised fears that the Federal Government may not be able to implement the 2013 budget. Sources in government attributed the drop to massive oil theft, illegal bunkering and pipeline vandalism.
Figures obtained by this newspaper, showing the monthly allocations to the three tiers of government by the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee, revealed that the country only realised N3.893tn as gross federally collected revenue in the first six months of 2013.
This sum, according to an analysis of the document, showed a shortfall of N321.73bn against the projected revenue of N4.215tn that was projected for the country for the six months period.
According to the FAAC document, the monthly budgeted gross federally collected revenue for the country is put at N702.54bn. This is expected to be realised from three revenue sources – mineral revenue, N465.057bn; non-mineral revenue, N158.711bn and Value Added Tax, N78.77bn.
However, further investigations revealed that the N3.893tn revenue for the first half of this year was earned as follows: January, N651.26bn; February, N571.7bn; and March, N595.71bn. In the months of April, May and June, revenue receipts by the country were N621.07bn,
N590.77bn and N863.02bn respectively.
In the same vein, the country recorded significant revenue drop between January and May.
The shortfalls were recorded as follows; January N51.28bn; February N130.84bn; March N106.84bn, April N81.47bn and May N111.77bn. Curiously, there was a surplus of N160.48bn in June as the country’s revenue receipts of N863.02bn exceeded the budgeted sum of N702.54bn owing to completion of pipeline repairs in some terminals.
It was gathered that unless the revenue generating agencies step up their efforts and leakages in the oil sector were taken care off, the country might only realise about N7.78tn for the 2013 fiscal year instead of the projected N8.43tn going by the first-half revenue trend.
During the week, the Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said that the country was losing 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day to illegal bunkering and vandalism of oil pipelines.
Okonjo-Iweala, who appeared before the House of Representatives Joint Committee on Appropriation/Finance in Abuja last Tuesday, had said, “We are losing revenue; 400,000 barrels of crude oil are lost on a daily basis due to illegal bunkering, vandalism and production shut-in.
“I have to clarify that it is not as if the entire 400,000 barrels is stolen, no. What happens is that whenever the pipelines are attacked and oil is taken, there   is a total shut down. All the quantity of oil produced for that day will be lost because it means government cannot sell it and it means a drop in revenue.”
The minister explained that this was the reason President Goodluck Jonathan sought to amend the 2013 Appropriation Act as against sending a supplementary budget to the National Assembly.
She pointed out that with the revenue shortfalls currently facing the country, there was no way the government could afford a supplementary budget.
Okonjo-Iweala told the committee, “You cannot talk of supplementary budget when your revenue is going down. That is why we are asking for an amendment to restore the money that was removed.”
Worried by the shortfall in revenue, the Federal Government had constituted a committee headed by the Governor of Bauchi State, Alhaji Isa Yuguda, to address the oil theft problem.
Other members of the committee are the Governors of Delta, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan; Anambra, Mr. Peter Obi; and Gombe,
Alhaji Ibrahim Dankwambo.
The rest are the Minister of Finance, Director General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Dr. Bright Okogu; and the Accountant General of the Federation, Mr. Jonah Otunla.
Okonjo-Iweala said the committee had also resolved to address the root cause of the revenue challenges facing the country.
Reacting to this development, the Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, warned that a revenue drop could hurt the nation’s economy.
Rewane said, “If indeed about 400,000 barrels of crude oil are lost every day, that’s about 20 per cent of daily oil production. Remember crude oil is the mainstay of Nigeria’s economy. If they take away 20 per cent of your salary, you know how that will affect you. Nigeria cannot survive on what will be left if that amount of revenue is lost every day.”
But a public intellectual and economist, Henry Boyo, expressed surprise that Nigeria had lost so much to oil bunkering despite the huge sums government had spent to secure oil facilities and pipelines.
“It is quite surprising that despite the huge amount that has been spent by the Federal Government to put in place security patrols on the coasts of the Niger Delta, oil bunkering has reached this stage. ,” he said.
Also, political economist, Pat Utomi, said the diversification of the nation’s revenue streams, and not worries about a drop in revenue, should be government’s immediate concern.
He said, “I have always belonged to the school of thought that suggests that only a small percentage of the oil revenue should be shared between the tiers of government
“I have even suggested, even though with tongue in cheek, that Nigeria should cap its oil wells so that we
can make a conscious effort at developing other sectors. All kinds of individuals who should not have been anywhere near governance are running to become public servants because of oil revenue.
“We have been killing other sectors of our economy. Maybe we need to be broke to return to our senses and dedicate more time to other sector such as agriculture, and manufacturing,” the economist said.
Punch

When Generals Clash


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A new book written by Brig-Gen Godwin Alabi-Isama (rtd) has dispelled tales of personal heroics recounted in former president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo’s civil war memoir, My Command.  Alabi-Isama, a former Principal General Staff Officer of the Nigerian Army in his book, The Tragedy of Victory: On-the-spot account of the Nigeria-Biafra war, launched Thursday at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Lagos, said he was spurred to write the book “to put the records straight and to give honour to whom honour is due”.

The author who served as chief of staff at the 3rd Marine Commando, a division commanded by General Benjamin “Black Scorpion” Adekunle and credited with several military successes during the 30-month civil war, refuted the notion that Obasanjo (then a colonel in the Nigerian Army) was the mastermind of the final tactical manoeuvre culminating in the ultimate defeat and surrender of Biafran forces.

“The Biafrans had already surrendered to Tomoye and Akinrinade when George Innih finally arrived with 13 Brigade, the fourth day after the battle and the war was over,” said the author in the 671-page book written in unvarnished language. “This is how it (the surrender) all happened and Obasanjo, the new commander, was not there. Biafran emissary, Col. J. Achuzia, waving a white flag approached 3 MCDO front line that they (all Biafran troops) have come to surrender to the commander of the federal troops. Then Major S. Tomoye of 17 Brigade and Lt. Col. Akinrinade, the GSO1 together went to meet with Effiong, the acting Head of State of Biafra at Amichi, with Ola Oni standing by for battle. “Naturally, Akinrinade called his commander, Col. Obasanjo, and notified him that Biafran officers and men had surrendered to him at Amichi. Obasanjo got lost as he did not know how to get to Amichi. He could not find Akinrinade and Tomoye but joined them, hours later through an escort at Amichi, to meet Effiong and later posed (alone) for a photgraph on the Uli airstrip with soldiers in the background.”
Below are excerpts from the book...
The Death Note
Adekunle arrived once again from Lagos to Port Harcourt. Owerri situation, as noted, was already a disaster and Adekunle sent for Akinrinade and I, to report at Port Harcourt at 7.00a.m. That was most difficult indeed, as I had to leave Uyo not later than midnight to arrive Port Harcourt at 7.00a.m. We did not have even a full day’s notice. Otherwise, we would have gone to stay the night at Port Harcourt or at Akinrinade’s place at Asa, which was about three to four hours drive to Port Harcourt. My situation was worse, as I had to drive at night without headlights for fear of vehicular movements being detected by Biafran troops or stragglers or an ambush party on the way. So, I left at midnight and passed through areas where I had troops and their commanders from Uyo through Etinan,, Ekeffe, and Akwette to Obigbo and to Asa to pick up Akinrinade.
I got to Asa at about 4.a.m. All the commanders en route had sent their passwords to Akinrinade and me to be able to pass through their road blocks at night, as any mistake was death by bullet. Adekunle did not think at all about the implications of ordering us to arrive at 7.00am in the morning or so I thought. Otherwise, it was premeditated for us to have an accident. Akinrinade and I had two Land Rovers full of escorts each, all battle-ready. I had an Old Mercedes Benz car which I bought at Uyo from one of Justice Ntia’s friends which I drove to pick up Akinrinade. The man needed the money to pay his daughter’s school fees in Ibadan at the university.

We set off at about 4.15a.m. and headed for Port Harcourt without the headlights on. However, as we drove, the Mercedes car’s bonnet snapped open and almost shattered the windscreen. We stopped and put it right. It did the same thing after about another kilometer drive. We stopped again, and put it right, and in order not to get into any of the Land Rover vehicles. Akinrinade was in the front vehicle and I was in the fourth at the back. We got to Port Harcourt at exactly five minutes to 7.00a.m. Adekunle was by the operational RS 301 radio. With him was a Lagos musician called Roy Chicago. When we showed up at his office, he was shocked and sat up. He asked how we got to Port Harcourt. I wondered what type of question that was, since he was the one that ordered us to arrive Port Harcourt at 7.00a.m. which he knew was difficult as we had to drive through enemy areas at night without our headlights on. Also, because there were no airports at Aba or Uyo, we had to come by road. We both thought that he had changed his mind, and that we were going to discuss Operations Pincer 1,2 and 3 and since it was a weekend, we had civil dresses in our box. Roy Chicago kept saying, “Please, do not quarrel;” I was not sure what he was talking about.

However, Adekunle became restless and was chain-smoking. Within minutes, he had lit about three or four cigarettes. Then he gathered himself together and said, “Well fine, I will talk to you one by one,” and then ordered that Akinrinade should stay outside while he talked to me first. So, Akinrinade went out and stood by the door. Barely a minute after, Adekunle was yet to say a word when Akinrinade kicked the door open and said we should get out of there fast. He showed me a note written by Capt. Richard, the Military Police Commander who was at the Head of an ambush party. He had been ordered to ambush our vehicles with a view of killing both of us. Apparently, it was just about 140 metres away from the corner where the ambush was laid that my car was abandoned. The ambush party was waiting to attack the Mercedes Benz car which they were sure we would be traveling in. the motorcyclist that Richard sent with the note to me at Uyo missed me because I left at midnight and he got there at 4.00a.m., at which time I had reached Akinrinade’s HQ at Asa. Then the ambush party missed us because they were expecting a Mercedes Benz to pass by. That was why, in retrospect, Adekunle asked how we got to Port Harcourt. He was probably waiting by the RS 301 radio for reports of our deaths.

The note from Capt. Richard simply said that we should not pass by Asa railway line on our way to Port Harcourt because an ambush had been laid to kill both of us. Adekunle had guessed right that we would both be in the car to Port Harcourt. When Akinrinade showed me the note, I was just short of shooting Adekunle dead. Akinrinade then asked him why he wanted to kill us after all we had done. We both just walked out with our maps and the many books we had carried for discussions with him.
Finding Adekunle’s Replacement
General Gowon’s marriage ceremony had ended. Army Headquarters then focused on the problem created by our escape to Lagos from the 3MCDO war front. We had been armed with the failed ambush warning note from Capt. Richard, on the strength of which Akinrinade and I had requested to be posted out of 3MCDO. Both of us had been in the war front non-stop from October 1967 until the failed ambush incident in April 1969, almost stretched to the limit by war effort activities on a daily basis. Of all my experiences at the war front the most heart-rending was talking to a dying soldier. To be hooked with the emotions of the man as life drained from him and as he enquired about his mother, wife, children and other loved ones, were to feel the pain of death and suffering along with the dying soldier. It sapped one’s energy, but that was hardly any reason for us to deserve death by ambush either, especially from what we would call friendly fire from the bullet of the tax payers of my country, and not from enemy fire: the country that I had served to the best of my ability.

When we met the following day, General Gowon wanted us to suggest which senior Yoruba officer we thought should replace Adekunle. Akinrinade once more mentioned Obasanjo’s name instead of Sotomi, Olutoye or Oluleye, who were also staff college-trained senior Yoruba officers. Akinrinade would not have suggested Oluleye anyway, because although infantry, he had sent barbed wire to Akinrinade in Bonny in place of reinforcements that had been requested. Olutoye, in the Education Corps, was not a combatant. Gen. Gowon was skeptical about Obasanjo accepting the appointment as he was an army sapper. I drew the Head of State’s attention to the fact that the position Obasanjo occupied at their time at Ibadan as the garrison commander was an infantry post. Gowon then said that we should contact him.

Akinrinade suggested that we sent our wives to book appointment with Obasanjo in Ibadan for 10.00a.m. the next day. We arrived his doorstep at 9.24a.m. and were ushered in. We told him our mission, and gave him a comprehensive briefing of the war front situation, and why the change of Adekunle was necessary. In this process, we had spread out our maps and I gave a comprehensive briefing about Operations Pincer 1, 2, and 3. We told him what problems there were with Adekunle’s plan to attack Ibo heartland without proper reorganization and refitting of troops that had been involved in the 30-day advance from Calabar to Port Harcourt. I also reminded him that when, in July 1968, he had visited 3MCDO with General Hassan Katsina, and we already had the problem of Adekunle’s decision to attack Ibo heartland on our hands, as Operation OAU.

If Pincer 2 was adopted, we told Obasanjo, we were sure to end the war in 30 days. By that time, we had been speaking for over three hours without food or drink. The man simply listened as we did the talking. And when he spoke, he asked, “How do you know that Uli-Ihiala is the centre of gravity of Biafra?”

That question put me off completely, and I had to ask Akinrinade if he would like to repeat the explanations. He was at it again until 2.00p.m when Obasanjo then toldus that he was an engineer, and that he was not going to the war front! I was livid. We had been with this man for four hours without food or water as he offered us none and in spite of all we said, here was this officers saying he won’t come to the war front! I told Akinrinade that we had to get out of Obasanjo’s house fast, but not before I had given him a dressing down. I reminded him of a similar behaviour he had shown when the Biafrans entered the Midwest, and we asked the army in Ibadan to blow up the Ore bridge to further delay the Biafran advance to Lagos. Obasanjo’s corps or an engineer was nowhere to be found. But for the courage of one Mr. Akande, a civilian from the Public Works Department at Ibadan, who blew up the bridge with the assistance of his men from the Ministry of Works, even without the supervision of the military, the advancing Biafran troops would have probably marched on to Lagos, though they too were poorly led and lily-livered.

I was so annoyed that I went on pouring venom on this officer, asking what engineering university he did attend anyway! We were out there in the war front carrying our dead and wounded comrades daily and he just sat there in Ibadan talking of being an engineer – so what! In anger, I reminded him also that we had engineers like Bayo Onadeko, Oladejobi and Duke who were university graduates and capt. Olajire at the war front who were building roads, bridges and pontoons to facilitate our advance and at that point Akinrinade and I stormed out of his house.
By the time we returned to Lagos, General Gowon had given the orders through the Army HQ that all divisional commanders at the war front who had been there for upwards of two years or more should be changed. Col. Bisalla would replace Col. Shuwa, while Col. Jalo took over from Col. Haruna, and Col. Obasanjo was named as replacement for Adekunle. Many people received the news of Adekunle’s replacement with shock and sadness. They couldn’t understand why and one of them was Col. Father Pedro Martins. Together with Commodore Akinwale Wey, Pedro Martins visited me on our return to Lagos to find out what exactly went wrong for Adekunle to be removed at a time when the entire country thought that 3MCDO was doing well under his leadership.
I then narrated the story of how Adekunle had changed completely, how he had underrated the Biafrans as spineless with no fire power in their belly, which led him into taking wrong decisions and muting ideas that resulted in the kind of casualties hitherto unknown to 3MCDO. Against all advice to the contrary, Adekunle advanced into Ibo heartland without adequate preparation. His military tactics and strategy were wrong. Besides, it appeared as if Col. Adekunle became drunk with success. Like Col. Murtala Mohammed, when he ignored the warnings of Akinrinade over the Asaba River Niger crossing, the results were tragic. Then I turned to Father Pedro Martins and asked, “Did the Holy Book not say in 2Timmothy 4 v 4 that for their destruction, they will turn their ears away from the truth and turn aside the myths?” Col. Fr. Pedro Martins laughed, and I told him that I also know the Bible fairly well, to which he said that he was impressed.
Obasanjo’s First Battle Experience – a fiasco
Briefing over, Col. Obasanjo was ready to go as commander of 3MCDO, but his very first move was a disaster. In complete disregard of our advice, he planned an attack from the same problematic Sector 1 under Lt. Col. Godwin Ally. The target was again Ohoba, a town of about 40 kilometres south of Owerri where Adekunle’s conventional war tactics had resulted in heavy casualties earlier on. Obasanjo did exactly what Adekunle had done by reinforcing failure. The pity of this failure, however, was that Obasanjo himself was not there at the war front to experience the tragedy. He ordered Lt. Col. Godwin Ally to counter-attack. He saw them advance, but turned back and traveled to his HQ in Port Harcourt, a distance of about 240 kilometres away.
Murtala’s tragic death
Since Gen. Mohammed had been killed, we started looking for who was next. This was the greatest mistake of my life. Instead of allowing those loyal officers who crushed the coup to handle the affairs of the nation to which they were loyal, Akinrinade and I insisted that it must be the next in seniority; and that meant Obasanjo as the most senior in the army then. We started looking for him to take over command but he was nowhere to be found. However, discussions between Ibrahim Babangida and Danjuma on the one hand, and Alabi-Isama and Akinrinade on the other were changing, becoming confrontational. Akinrinade and I warned that no one would hijack the coup without a fight; the next senior officer must be the next Head of State, and that was Obasanjo. But how could the senior officer who ran away during a coup against the government in which he was number two come back to lead those who put the coup down? Akinrinade ad I sat down to think for a minute. We reasoned that this man, Obasanjo, might not like us, whatever we might do. Then Akinrinade said that we should just do the right thing, and that the army operates by seniority. Fine, I was ready.

I decided to stay with the others trying to put down the coup, while Akinrinade searched for Obasanjo. Just as we were thinking, we had a tip-off from Lt. Col. Roland Omowa who was then Obasanjo’s ADC, had sent me a message about the whereabouts of his boss, that he was at the house of a chief. The chief was S.B. Bakare, a well known Lagos businessman. When Omowa was a major, he was my Public Relations Officer (PRO), when I was the Commander of 9 Brigade in Benin City after the war in 1973.
He was also with me at 3MCDO. He is a very loyal and dependable officer. He knew me very well and what I was capable of doing in all respects including sports, military tactics and strategy. Omowa had been promoted to the rank of Lt. Col. And appointed Obasanjo’s ADC. With that tip-off from Omowa, Akinrinade and I made a plan on what to do and how to achieve results by ensuring that the next senior officer would be safe from whoever might be planning to bump him off. Then we decided that Akinrinade would lay ambush around Chief S.B. Bakare’s house to ensure Obasanjo’s safety while I would handle the rest since I could speak Hausa and could take armoured vehicles and marry with the infantry under Maiyaki and get Dimka at the radio station in Ikoyi where he was announcing his curfew messages.

Babangida got there, saw Dimka, got his weapon, and advised Dimka to run away instead of arresting him. I was furious and started being suspicious of the situation, as that action alone was a court-martial offence. I sent a message to Akinrinade through Cpl. Isa, my orderly, on a motorcycle to be prepared for war if the coup was to be hijacked by anyone or by any group for that matte. Most of the coup plotters were well-known officers to me like Rabo, Jow Kasai and Clement Dabang who were NMS students while I was tactics instructor there in 1962/63. As a matter of fact, I recruited Rabo into the army in 1962. He was thirteen years old when he entered NMS. They spoke with me nicely and allowed me to take control of the situation in Bonny Camp, while in the meantime, Akinrinade was patrolling Chief S.B. Bakare’s house should anyone attempt to kill Obasanjo with a view to hijacking the coup. Finally, we all tooks control, and the coup failed. So, Obasanjo went back home to the government house. Well, here is an excerpt from a book titled, Not My Will, authored by Olusegun Obasanjo at page 29.

What did he think Akinrinade was there for? Was Akinrinade his orderly or ADC? He (Obasanjo) did not appreciate what we went through to get him there. I became Dabjuma’s enemy ever since; Danjuma was right, afterall.
The Conspiracy: Tide Turns against Me after Dimka’s Coup
With the coup over, Obasanjo became the Head of State. Danjuma who was my classmate and friend, who was to be ambushed on his way to work, but was missed because he rode in my boat suddenly became my enemy, and we never say eye to eye again after the Dimka coup. So did Adelanwa. Only Domkat Bali still remained on talking terms with me. I was wondering what went wrong or what I did wrong. Ah ah, it was because we did not allow the coup to be hijacked. We regretted that though later on, because we realized that Danjuma would have been a better Head of State. Nigeria has been drifting ever since with so many activities but no results. “Motion Without Movement.” Anyway, I was too busy, to appreciate how deep the enmity was. Obasanjo, in his wisdom, needed Danjuma as a northern officer to enable him to rally northern support for him. He had to tell Danjuma a story about Alabi-Isama and Akinrinade with reference to what happened during the war at the 3MCDO with Adekunle.

So Danjuma started behaving differently to me. Akinrinade they could tolerate to some extent. Once again, like at the war front, my enemy, of course, became his friend. So, Danjuma and Innih became my enemies and automatically became Obasanjo’s friends. When I realized that, I got myself busier building a ‘Qualitative Army,’ while they got on with politics and oil wells.
ThisDay

We’d Soon Start Drinking Our Oil

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Simon Kolawole
Did you watch the thugs in the Rivers State House of Assembly last Tuesday? I later learnt that they were, in fact, legislators. A group of five, led by Babakaya Bipialaka, had ridiculously tried to remove the Speaker, Otelemaba Amachree, with a fake mace. Bipialaka is an opponent of the state governor, Chibuike Amaechi, while Amachree is pro-Amaechi. Shortly after Bipialaka was “elected” Speaker, a group of 27 pro-Amaechi lawmakers entered the chamber. In the videoed fracas, Amaechi’s loyalist, Chidi Lloyd, grabbed the fake mace and began to use it as a weapon of mass destruction. He later narrated how he was eventually given the beating of his life. In the “movie”, Amaechi’s security aides also contributed some useful punches and whiplashes to the show of shame. And so on and so forth.
Well, fellow Nigerians, you don’t have to panic. Our salvation is nearer than we thought! If everything goes according to plan, crude oil could soon be selling for $10 per barrel and there would be little or nothing for the politicians to kill themselves over. These clowns have eaten too much and are belching recklessly into our faces. While the Rivers State branch of the thugs misruling Nigeria were busy with boxing, wrestling and judo, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was raising the alarm over the looming oil doom. The discovery and production of shale oil by the United States - and the United Kingdom - will begin to considerably hurt oil-exporting countries from next year.
Oil revenue accounts for roughly 80 per cent of what the three tiers of government spend in Nigeria. Of course, most of it ends up in the pockets of the politicians, their fronts, top civil servants and other high-profile bandits. All those private jets, all those mansions in Banana Island and Abuja, all the militancy and assassinations and political thuggery fuelled by oil boom… just wait and see what will happen when the price of crude oil mightily tumbles. I am hoping, against hope, that this looming scenario will bring these pot-bellied gangsters in power to their senses so that we can begin to tackle the real development issues facing Nigeria. The Nigerian condition is so critical that you would expect these trigger-happy politicians to spend their energies on something more productive.
Oil boom has pulled the wool over our eyes since 1973. But the threat to crude oil has always been there. More countries are discovering oil, which means our exports will begin to drop at some stage. In addition, all the talk about fossil fuels and climate change is leading to the development of alternative fuels - and that has always been bad news for crude oil producers. The Nigerian case is even worsening because of frequent production outages and unprecedented oil theft despite the billion-naira contracts awarded to militants to safeguard the pipelines. We are already in trouble. That is why we are taking loans every day. The debts are piling up again. And the Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, keeps educating us that we have a robust debt-to-GDP ratio!
As if all these are not enough trouble, the world’s biggest consumer of crude, the US, has now found a formidable alternative in shale oil. I wouldn’t mind if the alternative would take 30 years to develop. We could brace up for it. But it is developed already! So, the demand for our oil has fallen and will only continue to fall. In two to four years, the picture will be very clear to us. The new reality is that crude oil is no longer a monopoly! We are losing our swagger. Demand is falling and will continue to fall. As demand falls, the price will fall. As the price falls, production will fall. Many oil fields will become unprofitable to operate. They are likely to close down. You see, we may soon start drinking our oil for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Yes, you heard me right.
In the event of an oil doom, expect these: One, the naira would crash. Oil brings in most of our forex. A fall in forex inflow will hurt us since we are rapaciously import-dependent. Two, we would deplete our external reserves trying in vain to protect the naira. Three, a falling naira would impact negatively on the general prices of goods and services. Four, there would be less money to build infrastructure. Five, there would be less money for government overheads, leading to retrenchment and salary cuts. Six, there would no more money to fund fuel subsidy and petrol price will be increased. If petrol price goes up, there would be mass unrest as cost of living rises. I can go on and on.
Indeed, if crude oil revenue were to dry up today (July 14, 2013), only Lagos State would be able to pay workers’ salaries from its internally generated revenue. The other 35 states do not generate enough non-oil revenue to pay wages, much less meet other basic obligations. Most states are in debt, in any case, as they have taken loans or bonds. They will begin to default on the repayment and penalties will set in. The immediate option for the government would be to take more foreign loans to meet mounting obligations. Our children would inherit such a debt burden that they will curse us for enslaving them. And Okonjo-Iweala would not be around to explain to them our fantastic debt-to-GDP ratio.
It is not all bad news, though. We have shale oil too, somewhere in Ebonyi State, and we should concentrate efforts on finding more wherever it is buried. We can also choose to develop alternative energy sources as a matter of urgency. The best bet, however, is to invest heavily in infrastructure to grow industry, spur real economic growth and get off the fake petrodollar life support. We urgently need roads, power and railways. States need to fast-track the development of solid minerals and agriculture. We have to industrialise. These are what we should be spending our energy and time on. That is what will promote us out of underdevelopment, create jobs and sustainable wealth.
I repeat: I am not interested in who is the chairman of governors’ forum or Speaker of Rivers House of Assembly. That will not reduce the price of garri. In my list of priorities, I am more worried about the looting and incompetence going on at all levels of government. I am worried about the future of my children and grandchildren and great grandchildren. Is this the country they are going to live in? None of these political thugs seems worried about that. They are just playing politics at our expense, manipulating the highly vulnerable media for their selfish agenda.
Nevertheless, let the thugs continue to break one another’s head. I’m sure they have stolen enough petrodollars to treat their wounds in Germany or Dubai. That, fortunately, is not my headache.

Jonathan Must Reform NDDC Now

What should President Goodluck Jonathan do with the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC)? In my view, the commission has been less than effective since it was established by former President Olusegun Obasanjo 13 years ago, primarily for infrastructural intervention in the Niger Delta. If NDDC had been a success story all along, the Niger Delta would have become a better place by now – especially as the state governments also have their own mandates to deliver.
However, the huge financial resources available to NDDC might have been the source of its problem as politicians have often swooped on it to the detriment of the region. Curiously, key positions in the commission are always filled by political appointees. The chairman, managing director and executive directors are brought in from outside the commission – and this may be affecting the commission more than we know. I can understand if the chairman is a political appointee – after all, it is not an executive position.
But appointing the MD from outside may be a stumbling block that we have often ignored in the whole analysis. Minus the high turnover of MDs, obviously for political reasons, most of them have also lacked administrative experience. They spend too much time trying to understand the inside dynamics of the organisation and by the time they get a hold on it, their focus shifts to how they can use the position to get funds to pursue their political ambition, since they are politicians in any case.
For a change, maybe we should start looking inward. It does not make sense to me that people will be working in an organisation without any possibility of rising to the top since the chief executives would always be brought in from outside. It not only damages morale, but it also discourages people from putting in their best in the hope of attaining the most senior position in the organisation. It’s a weird tradition that political appointees always get the top positions.
In my opinion, too, I think President Jonathan should get rid of the Ministry of Niger Delta. I don’t know what that is all about. I am aware that it was set up by President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua as part of his development initiative for the oil-producing region but I still don’t know what the ministry does that cannot be done by the NDDC. For me, efforts should be focused on getting the best out of the NDDC. President Jonathan must seek to do things differently if he wants to achieve a different result. That is my candid advice.
ThisDay

Democracy In Search of Democrats

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Pendulum By Dele Momodu


Fellow Nigerians, there is no place where democracy is desperately seeking and pleading for attention than our dear country. I will explain and demonstrate what I mean in a jiffy. Nigerians love the good things of life but oftentimes hate the process needed to attain them. We are a nation of miracle-seekers; the reason religion is very attractive here without commensurate piety and Godliness. A man who has just stolen his latest billions is not ashamed to run to his church and Pastor to offer a tithe on his loot. You recognise the important folks in your church as they scramble to take direct positions in front of the pew. Nowhere is ever too sacred for these guys. Their security goons with fully loaded guns often block the front, back and side views of the hapless congregation. This show of pump and power has become a veritable part of the Nigerian man’s appurtenances of office.

That supposedly meek Alhaji who has just slaughtered the treasury of the State is a regular visitor to the Holy Land. He never misses his spiritual obligations of praying five times a day with full ablutions to boot. The same man sits at ungodly hours with members of the Mafioso planning and plotting how to throw his country into a senseless orgy of violence and total mayhem. At that convenient moment, he forgets that Islam is supposed to be a religion of love and peace. A true Muslim is expected to be simple, humble and humane. Like his Christian counterpart, he’s not supposed to lay treasures on earth. His manner of death and unpretentious burial presupposes that he brought nothing to the world and he shall take nothing when he departs. Why then do we make all this fuss about power when we always act like we own God more than the Pope? The reason is simple. An average Nigerian loves God but his thoughts and deeds are far from His words.

If you’re a Christian, you must be familiar with the Biblical injunctions. The toughest and commonest of them all are: Love your neighbour as yourself; thou shall not steal; thou shall not kill; thou must forgive your enemy seventy times seven times; thou shall not lie, and so on and so forth. How many of us ever make any effort, much more strenuous attempts, to obey these commandments. Yet we all wish to enter the kingdom of God. We live like ostriches and still wish to walk tall like peacocks. In fact, one of the admonitions I find most confusing is the one that says: “Judge not lest you be judged…” Matthew 7:1. How’s that possible in our modern world, where everyman is a judge in his own cause? That’s why I chose to advise the people in authority rather than dismiss them totally. Let it be on record that I did my best to offer legitimate even if unsolicited counsel.

Unfortunately, we’ve chosen to turn many dictionary words and their meanings upside down. I think many years of military rule have finally taken their toll on us. Love has fled our land to other climes and most of us are doing nothing to woo her back. Brothers are turning against brothers. Sisters are bitching against each other. We sulk like babies over everything. Our nerves have become so raw and tender that we snarl over primordial issues. We have allowed money, ethnicity and religion, in that order, to tear us asunder. The immediate cause of my lamentation is the recent release from death row of former General Sani Abacha’s Man Friday, Major Hamza Al-Mustapha. 

Some young friends had complained within 24 hours of Al Mustapha’s release that I had not commented on the judgment which most of them considered a miscarriage of justice. But it was not exactly true that I had not commented. I did but not in the elaborate manner they expected. My comment on Twitter was simply that God was the ultimate Judge. My reasons for this simple observation are even simpler.  One, whatever may be hidden from man is very clear to God.
Two, I had not availed myself of a copy of the judgment and it would be foolhardy of anyone to arrive at conclusions based on hearsay. Three, no sensible leader of thought and moulder of public opinion would ever disparage a judgment of a Court law and those who occupy esteemed positions in the Judiciary even if he feels they have erred in the duty and responsibilities. The courts remain the bastion and the last hope of the people. We should not demolish a house because of the presence of a few irritants.
If we do, all the good people inside would perish. I cannot even say that these particular Justices can be referred to  as irritants, simply because they have delivered a judgment that we may find unpalatable. Four, I personally feel the case had dragged on for too long and had become politicised and ethnicised like everything Nigerian. Five, if the judges feel the prosecution did not make enough effort to present a cast-iron case; I’m humble enough to acknowledge my limitations in matters and principles of law, and must therefore defer to their inexorable reasoning. Six, I will never support a kangaroo court treatment for anyone even if that person killed my mother and father. Seven, and lastly, we should know that legal matters are often tricky and if we doubt the decision we have the choice of challenging cases to their final destination but then we must accept the verdict at that final stage.

The tenets of democracy are tough and sometimes painful. There are too many dos and don’ts. Your freedom stops where mine begins. We’ve never really enjoyed the dividends of democracy in Nigeria. The same old warriors are still in charge manipulating all of us like the roulette wheel. It is the oldest casino game and we are their veritable instruments. Until the day something major happens, by whatever miracle or stroke of all, we shall continue this circus show of musical chairs. There is nothing to suggest that we’ve learnt anything tangible from our past. It is the same old song and chorus. It is as if there is a special liquid they inject into Nigerians that makes us lose our sanity the moment we lose power. I’m totally paranoid about that injection. I ask if one day I will become a stark raving lunatic animal like those before if ever I find my way to government and power. There are not too many good examples to suggest otherwise.
Even those on the periphery of power seem worse. No one talks about developing the nation. All we see are people tearing at each other’s throats. If we dismiss some as suffering from illiteracy, we cannot say the same of full-fledged Professors who threaten our corporate existence in the name of power shift. Let me be very direct. I was very disappointed when I read comments credited to Professor Ango Abdullahi that power must return to the North in 2015 at all costs and by any means necessary. He even boasted that the North has the numerical strength to win elections permanently.  I do not know where he got his figures from but that is a matter for another day.
What quickly came to mind were the following.  One, was how’s this man any different from those soldiers of fortune threatening that Nigeria must die if President Goodluck Jonathan does not win in 2015? Two, has Professor Abdullahi not given fillip to the argument of the militants and also enough notice for them to assemble their weapons of mass destruction? Three, which North is he referring to, North West, North East, North Central? What gives him the confidence that all of them would now vote as one, if they ever did before? Four, even if the North deserves to have another shot at the presidency, must it be put it so crudely and arrogantly as to provoke the South? Five, I don’t care where our next President comes from. Whosoever wishes to govern must be prepared to go through the electoral process. There is nothing in our Constitution that says power must rotate from North to South and vice versa. Every Nigerian has the legitimate right to aspire to the highest office in the land. The zoning agreement he claimed they had with former President Olusegun Obasanjo is not binding on the country. That was a private concoction between the convoluted Generals and their civilian allies in the People’s Democratic Party.  That Party is not, and can never, equate to Nigeria.

Democracy can never thrive in Nigeria with bullies screaming their heads off all over the place. The first thing we must kill before it kills our country totally is this tribal nonsense.  Even those in national positions are not able to think beyond the village they’ve done nothing to turn into a Dubai or Hong Kong. They speak with forked tongues, beating the drums of war yet talking about false peace.  Tribalism is their only qualification for appointments and election. The irredentists know for sure that having power in their zone will never translate to much gain for their community in general. They only live on the perpetual hope that they will have some access to the national cake with their kinsmen in power. That is the tragic reality. The religious malaise is just as bad.  Both tribal, parochial sentiments and religious opinions must be exorcised from our national consciousness.

As Nigerians, we must make up our minds that we are ready to put an end to the anomalies that have kept us backward and downtrodden. We must decide if this present shade of democracy is what we want or something else. Our intolerance of each other has reached atrocious levels. If Obama was a Nigerian, he would never have been able to contest Local Government elections let alone the Presidency. Yet were we not the ones that partied the loudest on his election as the first African American President. What have we learnt from that miracle to lead us to a desire to perform ours?

We are all celebrating the great Madiba, Nelson Mandela, today but is any of our leaders ready to pay such a personal sacrifice even at just the lower level of reducing the profligacy that has consumed us all? Are we ready to forgive our political enemies and march forward in a new season of true and total reconciliation? We obviously love the good things we see elsewhere but are never able to replicate same at home.  It is high time that we made the necessary personal choices and sacrifices.  Our nation will remain comatose and eventually die if we continue on this lethargic, apathetic path.  The prediction of the doomsday merchants will have come to pass, not because it was meant to be but because we let it be.
Our journey is definitely longer than we know.
ThisDay

Arewa Youths Oppose Elders Over 2015

Say Jonathan Is Qualified To Contest As A Nigerian 
A SERIOUS crack appeared in the North Friday, over the plans by the Arewa elders to produce a Northern Presidential candidate to challenge President Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 presidential contest, as the Northern Youths Forum (NYF) said that its members will only support any candidate for the leadership of the nation on the basis of merit irrespective of ethnic or religious background.
  Besides, the Arewa youths specifically criticized the recent joint statement by the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and other elders groups which condemned President Jonathan over the crisis in Rivers state, other political upheavals and the sorry state of the economy, saying that the current negative situation in Nigeria was a result of the maladministration by some of the Northern leaders who are now criticising the government of the day.
  They lampooned the Chairman of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), Prof Ango Abdullahi and the ex-while Minister of Agriculture, Alhaji Sani Zango Daura and other groups of elders in the North for exhibiting hypocratical tendencies concerning the present state of the nation, “pretending  to have forgotten that their acts of commission and omission while in government brought this nation and indeed the north to its present difficulties”.
  In a statement signed by the Director, Media and Publicity of NYF, Mallam Bello Gambo Bichi, the Northern Youths said: “  it may not  to long before Nigerians and particularly Northerners begin to question whether the present lawlessness is not a direct result of their poor leadership legacies”.
  Abdullahi, last Tuesday, led a joint press conference of Arewa Elders to criticised Jonathan on his role in the crisis in Rivers state and also unveiled the readiness of the north to ensure that the Presidency comes back to the region in 2015.
  However, the Youths Spokesman, Mallam Bichi remarked: “ the crisis in the Governors Forum or the crisis in the ruling party are all a case of their past misdeeds hunting the present generation. And sensing the consequences of their misadventure while in government, they are now quickly shying away from the truth and diverting public attention from a disease to the symptom of the disease”.
  “They thought Nigerians and indeed Northerners might have forgotten the link between their past failures as leaders in contemporary Nigerian political history and the current lawlessness. 
  “They suddenly want to play the superman, who just came out of the blues to save Nigeria through Press Conference. In fact what they could not do to make Nigeria better when they served in various capacities as Presidential Advisers and Ministers, they are now doing so through Press Conferences”.
  “The Zango Dauras and Angos of this world want to blindfold Nigerians and indeed Northerners to beleiving that a President they accuse of seeking self-perpectuation is wrecking havoc on his immediate constituency of Niger Delta, particularly Rivers state”.
“ How would anyone in his right senses beleive this? The crisis in Rivers State is a constitutional matter which the leaders of that state  be allowed to resolve amicably; and not just someone from afar fueling the crisis in the name of imaginary ambition of some leaders”.
  Bichi argued that “ we challenge the duo of Ango and Daura to tell Nigerians and the north what they did to add value to the lives of Nigerians. Professor was Presidential Adviser on food security, what did he do to impact positively on the lives of Nigerinas while in office? Alhaji Daura was Minister of Agriculture, he should tell Nigerians and indeed the North at he is pretending to be fighting for, what impact he made as Minister of Agriculture”.
  The Arewa youths continued: “While we condemn in strong terms the negative utterances of the elders from any section of this country, we take exception to the press conferences designed to promote selfish interest at the expense of all Nigerians. 
  “And in terms of national leadership, we advocate for a good leader and not just a Northern leader. Nigeria would be greater without ethnic champions, who cry over spilt milk. The future of the north will not and cannot be compromised to serve individual interest”.
  Meanwhile, the ACF National Publicity Secretary, Mr. Anthony Sani, who  spoke with The Guardian on whether the North was disposed to producing Nigeria President in 2015, said: “But we understand that zoning has been killed and meritocracy has taken the center stage in producing the nation’s president in 2015.
  “So, everybody is free to contest and the North is not an exemption. We shall contest base on merit...there is nothing stopping the Ibos from also contesting the election. The presidency should be opened to all sides of Nigeria,” he added.     Guardian

2015: Nyako, supporters in moves to join APC

By Umar Yusuf Yola
Facts  have emerged  in Yola, Adamawa State that governors of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, controlled states in the north have asked their supporters to join the opposition All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, ahead of the registration of the  All Progressive Congress, APC.
This was discovered at a PDP stakeholders forum held in Yola, yesterday by supporters of Governor Murtala Nyako.
According to sources, top members of the party loyal to Alhaji Umaru Mijjinyawa Kugama’s faction were said to have taken the decision to ditch their party in a meeting held in Yola yesterday. Governor Nyako and Senator Ahmed Barata are among those expected to dump the party.
Those who attended the meeting included state commissioners, local government chairmen, PDP ward chairmen and secretaries, special advisers and assistants as well as other principal officers of government in the PDP controlled states.
Governor Nyako is known to be engaged in a bitter struggle for who would control the party structure with the National Chairman of the party and indigene of the state, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur.  At the Nyako factional meeting, the stakeholders were said to have concluded arrangements to dump the PDP for the All Nigeria People’s Party, ANPP from where they would be registered in the APC.
They were also reportedly briefed by some of their leaders on the plan  by other governors of PDP controlled states, especially in the north to move out en-mass for the new opposition party.
According to sources, the reason for their leaving the party was to ensure that President Goodluck Jonathan would not win the 2015 general election.
However, in order to avoid being branded as committing anti-party activities by the PDP national leadership, governors on the party’s platform would remain in the party until 2015, before decamping to the APC.
Sources told Saturday Vanguard that apart from aggrieved party members in Kano, others in PDP controlled states in the north would also decamp to the ANPP, preparatory to joining the APC, now undergoing INEC’s scrutiny for registration.
Frustrated northern PDP members are said to be calculating that, altogether, all members of the party in 21crisis ridden chapters of the party would decamp to the APC, to form a formidable opposition against President Jonathan’s emergence in 2015.
At the Yola meeting, the PDP faction was said to have apart from directing their members to register with the APC also requested for additional 30,000 ANPP membership cards for them, even as they would eventually join the APC.
The registration in the ANPP  before the 2015 election was to ensure that the new members were not denied their rights in the new APC, in case of those nursing various political ambition.
Some of the governors, Saturday Vanguard was reliably told have already shown their opposition to Jonathan’s emergence through, the Northern States Governors Forum, NSGF.
According to sources at the venue of the meeting, in Yola, most members chose to join the ANPP which had fused into the APC because of fears that INEC could frustrate the registration of the new party.
The Director of Press and Public Affairs to Governor Murtala Nyako of Admawa State, Alhaji Ahmad Sajoh, confirmed that the PDP stakeholders loyal to his principal met and asked Nyako’s first son and Sarkin Matasa Adamawa,  Commander Abdulaziz Nyako, rtd, to dump the crisis- ridden PDP in Adamawa, but declined to confirm if his principal would also dump the party.
Vanguard

PDP crisis: Sheath your swords, Jonathan tells Tukur, Gana, others

By Henry Umoru, Abuja
MOVED by the lingering crisis between the National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur and the Professor Jerry Gana led Special National Convention Planning Committee, President Goodluck Jonathan has pleaded with them to sheath their swords and embrace peace  in  the interest of the party.
The President  has also urged Tukur, members of the National Working Committee, NWC  and members of the Convention Planning Committee to go and perfect  arrangements  on the forthcoming national convention of the party slated for August 31st.
Saturday Vanguard gathered that these were part of the resolutions reached at a meeting President Jonathan and Bamanga Tukur had on Thursday night at the  Presidential Villa.
From Right, President Goodluck Jonathan and PDP National Chairman Bamanga Tukur at 61th National Executive Committee of PDP held in Abuja. Photo by Gbemiga Olamikan.
FILE PHOTO: From Right, President Goodluck Jonathan and PDP National Chairman Bamanga Tukur at 61th National Executive Committee of PDP held in Abuja. Photo by Gbemiga Olamikan.
At the Thursday meeting,  President Jonathan was said to have  directed Tukur to have a meeting with members of the NWC  on how to have a hitch- free convention.
The Thursday night  meeting was a follow-up to the one the President had with both Tukur and Gana on Tuesday as part of ways to nip in the bud,  disagreements between them  on arrangements  for the mini convention where national officers of the party will  be elected to replace those who resigned following observations by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC that the 2012 national Convention was held amidst some irregularities.
Saturday Vanguard also gathered that at the Thursday meeting,  the sharing formula on who to produce Chairmen for the subcommittees of the Convention Committee was also discussed.
Following the tall order from the President,  Tukur immediately  met with the NWC members in Abuja yesterday  afternoon on how to present their demands for chairmanship of the subcommittees to the Gana-led Convention Committee.
The  meeting  discussed those to be nominated for the positions being demanded by the NWC members, even as Tukur and the NWC members are demanding that they be allowed to produce those who will head subcommittees like Publicity, Organising, Welfare, Protocol, Screening and Election.
It will be recalled that Gana’s committee had fixed the convention for August 31 and Tukur met with his members three days after and instructed that all plans concerning the convention be put on hold.
Vanguard