PDP members are welcome to APC – Odigie-Oyegun

 BY LEKE BAIYEWU 

Odigie-Oyegun

Third Republic governor of Edo State and leader of the All Progressives Congress, John Odigie-Oyegun, in this interview with LEKE BAIYEWU, highlight what the newly-registered party has in stock to win the hearts of the electorate

Now that the Independent National Electoral Commission has finally registered the All Progressives Congress as a party, what is the next step?

First, I’m not a member of the APC interim executive. I’ll be speaking from the backdrop of what we’ve been saying and my personal perspective of what the future holds. For me, we have completed phase one; the critical phase. It is like building a vehicle with which to undertake a journey. We have completed the vehicle; we have tested it and it is roadworthy. Now, we are going to move into the phase two, which include building the structure and institution that will support this vehicle. This means that we are going to set up the structure of the party in all the states. We are going to design our message and move to the state, local government and ward congresses to set up the structures of this new, progressive party. And of course, we are going to organise a convention that will elect national officers.

Some people keep on talking about ideology. It is very simplistic to be shouting for ideology. The days of communism, capitalism and socialism have all gone. What is important today is who best serves the interests of the people; who best heeds to the yearnings of the people; who is best placed to restore hope to the people; by what mix of policies can we return smiles to the faces of our people? These are the issues. It is not whether it is communism or capitalism. This means that we are taking very seriously the burden of meeting the yearnings of the Nigerian people. We are going to come out at the proper time with a mission statement and it will address all the questions of the ordinary Nigerians. Things they have been crying over for many years; thing we all have been agitating for; things that have seem insoluble for many years; these are the things this party will address. And we are going to act within a time frame; we are not just going to make promises. We are going to say ‘hold us responsible, if by this time we have not addressed your issues.’ We are going to be that specific.

Phase three is to plan for elections. Fortunately, we are going to drive the vehicle soon in Anambra State and in Delta State before then, because there’s a senatorial vacancy there. What is important is that we are going to tell the people of this country what we have in stock for them.

Has APC’s registration changed your perception of the Independent National Electoral Commission?

On matters like this, I have a conservative state of mind. We are very sentimental in this country. For example, when we get a judgment from a court that favours us, we blow trumpets, praising the judiciary to high heavens. But when we get contrary judgments, we also condemn judges to high heavens. I don’t want to fall into that kind of situation. Yes, INEC has done well. It has shown that it has some backbone; it has shown that it can resist pressure. But let me make a point clear, it was because we too made it easy for INEC because we dotted all i’s and across all t’s. As we were negotiating, we had in front of us the constitution of the Federal Republic and the Electoral Act. Whatever was prescribed by these two documents, we made sure we over-fulfilled. It is also good to say that INEC did well by admitting that we fulfilled all the conditions. Obviously, we were not going to bend to any pressure. After all, there are cases in court over the acronym ‘APC.’ If INEC was very weak, they could have used that as an excuse. But they were bold and forthright. My prayer is that they should carry these courage and forthrightness into the future electoral processes.

It is going to be a very stressful undertaking, giving the kind of drums that are being beating in the polity now, but I’m confident, with what they have done, that they are going to do much better in the future.

Leaders of the APC have always described the party as a better alternative to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party. What are the qualities the APC has that the PDP lacks?

We are not really an alternative because we are espousing different philosophies and different ways of doing things. We don’t want to see ourselves as an alternative; all we are doing is that we are presenting the Nigerian public with a real, credible choice. And we are going to tell them why they should prefer us to the PDP, based on records. These things are clear; the performance of the PDP in office and the performance of our governors in office. If we just pick a state like Lagos and the achievements recorded there, and translate it into the Federal Government, you can imagine the dramatic change this nation will go through. There’s a choice now. Yes, if you want to call it an alternative, let’s not argue over it. But the Nigerian public now has credible choice. Without choice, there’s no democracy.

What precisely is the credibility you’re talking about? Can you identify the difference between the two parties?

I singled out Lagos State, let me broaden it. I’m from Benin in Edo State. What has happened in almost five years in Edo State was inconceivable in the last 10 years. We had 10 years of PDP non-stop governance. Under the APC – it’s no more ACN – administration of Governor Adams Oshiomhole, we have been able to achieve in four years what we were not able to achieve in 10 years of PDP administration. There’s no comparison. What we want to say is that welfare of the people is going to be the core of governance under the APC. That is a significant, major difference. Our slogan says ‘change.’ We cannot continue business as usual; we are offering the people a change for the better. We are offering a new way of doing things. We are offering governance that will produce results in line with what is the aspiration of the people. That is the difference.

Some people are of the opinion that the APC may not be better after all because some ex-members of the PDP, which the APC often condemn, are in the new party and more of them are still coming to eventually make the two parties look alike. Do you agree?

It a bit of a puerile argument; it is a very simplistic one. What matters is not where the individual is coming from, it is the atmosphere of where he is going; guiding principles, strength and commitment of where he is going. We can only come in when he agrees to be governed by the standards of the new institution. We don’t want people at all cost, no. It is not about the individuals in the PDP, it is the political atmosphere of governance in the party that has enthroned impunity and corruption. And that has become the core of governance. That is not what will operate in the APC. The chance is clear. The atmosphere in the PDP is already corrupted with impunity and cannot change. Any PDP man, who wants to join us in efforts to reposition this nation, must be ready to live by the standards of the APC. If you cannot, then of course, you shouldn’t even bother to come. The atmosphere, standards and principles in political parties are different. If you’re coming into our party, you must be ready to live and abide by the standards for good governance that the APC is meant to establish.

Analysts have also said selfish interests of APC leaders and regional interests would not allow APC last long. Have you ever envisaged this?

All I can say is that it is laughable. Those issues will always be there; conflict of interests will always be there. But, we are bound together by one iron-cast objective, and that is the welfare of our people. The greatness of this nation is what binds us together. The conflicts you’re talking about came up during the process of negotiating the merger and they were all addressed. It was one of the greatest happenings in my life to see Nigerians making sacrifices that you never thought they were capable of making. That is historic of the APC. There’ll always be clash of interests, no doubt about that. The key issue will always be ‘what is in the best interest of Nigerians; what is the best interest of the nation; what is the right thing to do.’ We cannot be divided by clashes of interests, no, we can’t. We have already established a benchmark for resolving all these conflicts because everybody has accepted that this nation has suffered enough and that it is the time for change. That is the driving force of the new movement called the APC.

Punch

Oil Theft and Criminal Cartels

The Verdict By Olusegun Adeniyi.

At the public presentation of the 2009-2011 audit report of our oil and gas industry on Monday, the National Extractive Industries Transparency Initiatives (NEITI) governing board Chairman, Mr. Ledum Mitee, disclosed that Nigeria lost over $10.9 billion worth of crude oil to thieves within the period. Unfortunately, it would seem that the sustained pillaging of our national resources is a problem that will not go away. I make this point knowing that the NEITI current submission reflects the repeated positions of all actors in the sector for more than a decade now. Today, I reproduce for the readers’ attention and evaluation a column written some nine years ago on this page and on this same matter, complete with the dire implications for our economy and national security. What is worrisome about the recollection is that it might as well have been written after the last NEITI report:

23 September, 2004: The United States-based Human Rights Watch, in a recent report, stated that oil theft accounts for 10 percent of Nigeria's daily production. Describing illegal oil bunkering as Nigeria's most profitable private business since it is estimated to yield between $750 million to $3.5 billion annually (depending on the season), the report also stated that the violence being witnessed in the Niger Delta has a direct link to the illegal business: "Oil has become literally the fuel for the violence-despite the fact that in theory it should be easy to stop its theft (it is hard to hide a tanker and easy to trace its owner)". The Human Rights Watch is wrong here. In a nation where big vessels "disappear", bunkers are not that hard to hide! But the report gets interesting when it talks about the modus operandi and those believed to be involved and I want to quote more extensively:

“Illegal oil bunkering-long prevalent in the Delta-has become a sophisticated operation that no longer requires the cooperation of oil company staff to operate equipment at wellheads or allow access-though there are still reports that they are involved. The bunkerers tap directly into pipelines away from oil company facilities, and connect from the pipes to barges that are hidden in small creeks with mangrove forest cover. Frequently, both in the riverine areas and on dry land, the police and military are involved in the process or are paid off to take no action against those tapping into pipelines. In November 2001, the Nigerian federal government set up a Special Security Committee on Oil Producing Areas, ‘to address the prevailing situation in the oil producing areas which have, in recent past, witnessed unprecedented vandalisation of oil pipelines, disruptions, kidnappings, extortion and a general state of insecurity.’ Reporting to President Obasanjo in February 2002 (in a report that has not been published), the committee noted that a ‘major threat to the oil industry ... arises from the activities of a 'cartel or mafia', composed of highly placed and powerful individuals within the society, who run a network of agents to steal crude oil and finished product from pipelines in the Niger Delta region.’ The committee indicated that many of the militant youth groups responsible for halting or diverting oil production and preventing free traffic on the waterways ‘could be enjoying the patronage of some retired or serving military and security personnel.’ Despite this high-level recognition of the seriousness of the problem, there appears to be no proactive government strategy for investigating the organized illegal oil bunkering rackets. There have been some seizures of the vessels involved. More than nineteen vessels used in the illegal bunkering business are reported to have been seized by the army and navy in the year to July-though it is often not clear what happens to their cargoes thereafter...”

According to media reports, now confirmed by the authority, MT African Pride, one of the 15 vessels arrested for alleged bunkering in August last year (2003), and carrying 15,000 barrels of crude, is missing. Testifying before a House of Representatives Committee, the Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Sunday Afolayan, said his men were helpless to arrest what he called "practice of topping", obviously the Naval euphemism for oil theft. He blamed the Police for this sudden disappearance of a vessel on the high sea, arguing: "It is my responsibility to arrest the ship and another to prosecute. I have made arrests and handed over and it is not my duty to do anything beyond my constitutional duties."

Probed further, Afolayan said there was a directive in January this year (2004) from President Olusegun Obasanjo to the effect that the vessel should be handed over to the police for prosecution after the cargo had been taken away by the NNPC. Those who attended the said meeting were Nuhu Ribadu, Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC); Funso Kupolokun, Group Managing Director, NNPC; and the Police IG, Tafa Balogun. Afolayan, in the course of his testimony at the House (where we got to know another vessel, M.T. Jimoh, has also disappeared) said the Navy had begun an in-house probe into the matter resulting in the court-martial of some officers and ratings over their alleged roles after pushing the blame on the Police. But the Naval Chief did not have the last say on the matter.

Balogun, in his testimony, said that consequent upon the directive of the President, he set up a panel led by DIG Ogbonna Onovo (who would later become IGP) to take custody of the vessel and suspects but the Flag Officer Commanding Western Naval Command, Rear Admiral Bob Manuel, refused to oblige them on the grounds that he was yet to be briefed by Afolayan. However, when the investigating team returned to Abuja to express their complaints, a copy of a signal from one Agbiti with number NHQ/MS0/00/05/02/04 was handed to them by the Naval Headquarters. At about the same time, according to Balogun, another letter was issued to the police stating that the Navy would take custody of the ship but would release the suspects.

Said Balogun: "MT African Pride, reported missing by the Navy was never, and I repeat, never in the custody of the police. At no time were any of the ships taken over by the police. It is not even a question of MT African Pride, all the vessels have always been with the Navy. If anybody says he handed over a ship to me, let him produce the handing over note because there is no way the handover of such magnitude can take place without a handover note. The vessels in question were at the high seas where the police have no access to them. The Navy deployed helicopters and ships to trace the MT African Pride and it was on the pages of newspapers that I read it. If the ship had not been in their custody, why did they deploy ships and helicopters to search for it?"

Without prejudice to the work of the House Committee, it must be noted that we are not just talking about a missing ship here. We are actually talking about the theft, corruption and mismanagement of our oil wealth, aided and abetted by officialdom and the implication for our economic well-being and national security. I repeat, nobody should confuse the issue here, this matter is about oil, not ship. And in another country where leaders are actually accountable to the people, several public officials would have lost their jobs by now, assuming they are not already in jail. But because this is Nigeria, we have a situation in which arrested vessels carrying stolen oil just 'disappear' into thin air and the Naval Chief can only tell us some cock-and-bull story!

Since the ugly development broke, I have had time to speak to several people in the oil sector as well as in the Navy and I am privy to some damning reports. I also have it on good authority that the Navy has on several occasions in the last one decade arrested vessels carrying stolen crude but up till now, there has not been one single prosecution of these criminals. The oil majors have also written several reports to the government on the activities of these illegal bunkerers sometimes mentioning names and pointing out the danger of their activities since a large chunk of their 'returns on investment' go into the purchase of arms. But nothing happened. And we should get the fact right: what we call illegal bunkering is simply armed robbery in that arms, sophisticated ones for that matter, are used to dispossess Nigerians of our commonwealth by some unscrupulous, but obviously highly placed, elements. And now that some vessels are in custody of the Navy and should help in the investigations, assuming anybody is really interested in investigations, they are now conveniently "missing".

Whichever way one looks at the Nigerian condition today, one cannot but agree with the conclusion reached in the July 2003 IMF Working Paper titled “Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria”. It reveals that over a 35-year period Nigeria's cumulative revenues from oil (after deducting the payments to foreign companies) have amounted to $350 billion at 1965 prices yet only few people feel the impact of this huge wealth.

The authors, Xaxier Sala-i-Martin, a professor of Economics at Columbia University and Arvind Subramanian, an Advisor, Research Department, IMF argued that on just about every conceivable metric, Nigeria's performance since independence has been abysmal essentially because of oil. Check out the statistics: While Nigeria's Per Capita GDP was US$1,113 in 1970, it had declined to US$1,084 in 2000 which places the country among the 15 poorest nations in the world. The poverty rate, measured as the share of the population subsisting on less than $1 per day, increased from 36 percent to 70 percent which in practical terms means the number of the poor has moved from 19 million in 1970 to 90 million today. "In 1965, when oil revenues per capita were about US$33, Per Capita GDP was US$245. In 2000, when oil revenues were US$325 Per Capita, the Per Capital GDP remained at the 1965 level. In other words, all the oil revenues did not seem to add to the standard of living at all. Worse, however, it could actually have contributed to a decline in the standard of living."

The objective of the 44-page report, according to the authors, was to demonstrate that corruption, weak governance, rent seeking and plunder are problems intrinsic to most countries that own mineral resources, especially oil. In the light of recent developments, I think the authors may have to review their report because they have only scratched the surface where the Nigerian oil asset is concerned. The rot is much deeper than they, or anybody, can ever imagine. But it is unacceptable.

POSTSCRIPT: The above column, titled “MT Abracadabra”, and published some nine years ago, highlighted the challenge of oil theft in our country which seems to have defied solutions.Yet it is instructive that as at the time I wrote the piece in September 2004, Nigeria was said to be losing about ten percent of its oil revenues to thieves. Today, the figure has jumped to between 20 and 30 percent. The essence of this recollection therefore is to ginger the authorities on the need to find solution to a problem that is fast getting out of hands, especially given recent revelations, including from Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, that Nigeria today loses about 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day to these same criminal gangs.

Unfortunately, rather than confront this challenge frontally, the relevant authorities are playing politics with it. Just recently, the Director General of NIMASA, Mr. Patrick Akpobolokemi said: “There are some big vessels under my custody belonging to organised piracy and crude oil thieves. Very soon, I will release all the big names in the syndicate. Once I do that, people should not come and say it is ethnic cleansing or that it is 2015.” While Nigerians wait for Akpobolokemi to make god his threat by revealing the names of the people helping themselves to our oil wealth, nobody is putting him to task on the issue that impinges not only on our economy but indeed, our national security. Any wonder then that these criminal gangs have been so emboldened as to now corner to themselves almost a quarter of our national oil production, on a daily basis? Yet, as I stated nine years ago, this is clearly unacceptable.

ThisDay

As APC Finally Berths

Pendulum By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, let me start by congratulating the leaders and members of the newly registered political party, All Progressives Congress (APC) of Nigeria, on their well-deserved victory. You will agree with me that it was never a smooth ride for them, and they were forced to fight like wounded lions, every step of the way, against all manner of forces that attempted to frustrate their efforts and derail their mission. Even at a time many of us wondered what was so special about a name, and an acronym, that at best stood for a popular pain-killer, the leaders of the merging political parties stuck adamantly to their guns and refused to be intimidated by the powers that control life and death in Abuja. It speaks volumes about the uncommon bravery of those the PDP, the ruling party at the centre, are poised to duel with sooner or later.

Now that APC has crossed the Rubicon, believe me, the big game is just about to start. Already the rhetoric is changing.  The tone and tempo of politics is set to be modified and returned to the good old interesting days of NRC versus SDP pre-1993. There is nothing that makes politics more exciting than having two giants in the ring. What we’ve had all along was a mismatch where a heavyweight champion was flexing its muscles in front of several flyweights whose combined strength did not even amount to a proper lightweight! Compared to PDP, the other parties in opposition were like pests, or minor irritants, that could easily be swatted and squashed! With this miraculous registration, the days of a lone King Kong punching the wind in the arena are over. The two major warriors can now stand shoulder to shoulder, eyeball to eyeball and square up to each other.

It would certainly be naïve of the PDP to underrate the potential of APC and the combination of General Muhammadu Buhari, now a Grand Admiral in contesting elections, and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a civilian General in his own right and a veteran of many political wars, marshalling the affairs of APC from the rear. Those two men, with their politically savvy and die-hard troops in tow, have what it takes to give the PDP apparatchik and foot soldiers a run for their money. What gives me the confidence is the assurance I’m getting from the inner caucus of APC that General Buhari and Asiwaju Tinubu have chosen to play backend roles this time around as kingmakers. This sacrifice on their part will certainly yield better fruits and bountiful harvests. It is bound to upturn the permutations of those who are hoping, willing and ready to use the perceived weaknesses of both great men against them if ever they present themselves as candidates. But with the decision to make the big sacrifice, they would be able to concentrate their attention, energy and resources at mobilising voters all over the country.  The APC can only stand to gain more converts and instant ovation as a result.

Those who want APC as replacement to PDP are of the opinion that by 2015, PDP would have spent a total of 16 years in power. It is their belief that in those years, Nigeria frittered away enough resources that could have brought true transformation to our nation because of the profligate nature of the PDP leaders. They argue that the time has come to try some other people and certainly a new and different political party. But the antagonists of APC consider that line of thought as preposterous and untenable. They wonder how a party that is likely to poach and field a candidate, and possibly a running-mate, from PDP can reasonably claim to be a new party. Their supporters are pleading with Nigerians to stick with the devil they know and not risk a new government that might make matters worse for the country. They are taunting APC as a coalition of frustrated and disgruntled politicians.  It is for APC to rise above such base mocking and focus solely on the gargantuan task ahead.  Nigerians want to see a Party that discusses issues and solutions not one that spews forth bitterness and hate.

The war of words is expected to escalate in the coming days and weeks as the gladiators warm up for the battle royale. It is not clear yet how the game would play itself out or how PDP would respond to this affront on its supremacy and erstwhile invincibility. For sure, President Jonathan would have to take some urgent and drastic steps to shore up what is regarded by many people as his lethargic style of governance. He may be forced to sack and sacrifice some of the controversial and or lacklustre members of his kitchen cabinet. He would have to jazz up his team with more accomplished and competent people. The anticipated shakeup is expected to be as powerful as an earthquake if and when the President decides that he has the liver to do it. He would have to close his eyes and ears to close family members and friends with vested interests in who should or should not come in. According to close insiders, this reshuffling is long overdue and the time has come for decisive action in order to steal the thunder from APC.

In the calculations, the President is said to be considering new realignments based on the current realities. The South West is aggrieved that it has not fared well in the present equation. No Yoruba man is known to occupy any of the top ten positions in a country where ethnic considerations and jingoism reign supreme. And the South West is too strategic and very enlightened to ignore because of its huge votes and educated voters. The region is very similar to the swing States of America.

I’ve no doubt in my mind that it would have been almost impossible for Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to win the last Presidential election had he not secured the tacit support of Bola Tinubu & Co. in the South West. The breakdown of talks and negotiations between the CPC and ACN was all Dr Jonathan needed to coast home to victory and the PDP flag-bearer wasted no time in relocating to Lagos to caress and cajole the South West power-brokers into supporting his dream. The rest is history.

But somehow, it seems the PDP has mismanaged the goodwill that gave it the victory it recorded in 2011 almost on a platter of gold. As I write this, PDP appears to be in utter disarray fighting within and without on all fronts. Not since the First Republic have we seen a party fighting such a war of attrition and self-immolation as if under a demonic spell. It appears that the leaders of the PDP and in particular the President and his cronies have not imbibed the lessons of history.

For all you care, and hate him or love him, Bola Tinubu is currently the most significant politician in Yorubaland today, while General OlusegunObasanjo is the biggest national figure from the South West. Truth is Tinubu is a one man riot squad who controls the biggest army of old and young members of the electorate in his region. He’s very intelligent and skilful. He understands how to meander his way in the forest of a thousand daemons. As tough and irreconcilable as President Obasanjo was in his days as civilian President, one man he could not cow was Tinubu. Lagos was starved of its statutory allocations yet Tinubu ran the State on auto-pilot. He even cruised at an altitude that would have many Captains green with envy.

Tinubu did not stop there. He deployed humongous energy and resources to wrestle the states taken by the PDP in the South West and took them back one after the other. Like the legendary Ijesa warrior, Ogedengbe Agbogungboro, Tinubu has carried his political exploits across borders and certainly beyond the South West with a most formidable ally in Edo State, Governor Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole and Kwara State has always been just a fingertip away from being captured by his Party. Unless something happens soon, Governor Rotimi Amaechi may be thrown willy-nilly, or inadvertently, to the APC free of charge by a rabidly vengeful PDP.

The President and his strategists would really have to wake up from the day-dream that the 2015 Presidential election would be easy to win. With the birth of APC, the forces against them are now bigger and stronger than ever. The PDP has enough enemies to contend with in the South South where the President comes from. The problem is not just about personal squabbles but the lack of visible development in the region despite the fact that they have the President, Petroleum Minister, Minister and Ministry of Niger Delta, Niger Delta Development Commission, Presidential Amnesty Programme, and so on. The physical appearance and infrastructure remain as rickety as they were three years ago and no miracle can improve them in the next two years.

The South East that gave total support to the President at the last elections may yield some ground to APC this time, especially with the influence of Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State. No one is sure if the full weight of APGA would be thrown behind President Jonathan now that Governor Peter Obi of Anambra State has reconciled with Chief Victor Umeh, Chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance.

The confusion in the polity extends to the North Central, especially in Kwara State, where the position of its kingpin Senator Bukola Saraki and his successor in office, Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed is not clear. The Governor is one of the pro-Amaechi supporters in the crisis rocking the Nigeria Governors Forum. Not too far away, Jos has been a notorious trouble spot with sporadic attacks and counter attacks in the area. The unrealistic insistence of Governor David Jang of Plateau State that he won the Nigeria Governors Forum election may also weaken the fortunes and chances of President Jonathan in this Zone.

Many parts of the North West are groaning under incessant terror attacks. Kano, Kaduna and Bauchi have been ravaged and savaged by terrorists. President Jonathan may have to rule out and write off that zone in his calculations of States to win in the next election, especially if the Opposition fields a Northerner as it is certain they will.

Let’s move across to North East. The situation here is even more volatile as the hotbed of radical terrorism. Borno, Adamawa and Yobe where the President has declared Emergency rule are too shaky for him to win. Out of the six geo-political zones of Nigeria, the President would be lucky to win two of them comfortably today. But even those two zones can’t match the votes that may pour in for a Northern candidate from the North West, North East and South West.

This is why the APC is in an upbeat mood. You can’t blame them; a house divided against itself like that of PDP is a wandering avenue for lizards and rodents. But APC should not be over-confident. What binds PDP together is very strong, access to power and money, a surfeit of it for that matter. When the time comes, you can expect PDP to open the taps of wealth at its disposal and wave the whiff of cash as usual to catch a largely impoverished populace. The APC would have to wage an unprecedented campaign using mass communication and the preponderance of information technology to counter the humongous financial arsenal that PDP will ultimately deploy. APC must ignite a passion in the youths and first time voters. It must appeal to women as never before, not just as voters but as candidates, even as high as Governorship level. If a country as small as Liberia could produce the first female President in Africa, APC should be more gender-sensitive and positive.

The candidates it chooses will determine the shape of things to come. I pray the two parties will engage in campaigns of issues and not that of calumny.

Nigerians and Nigeria will be better for it in the long run. May God bless our nation.

ThisDay

Now that APC Has Been Registered

Simon Kolawole

You needed to feel my joy, last Wednesday, when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced the registration of the All Progressives Congress (APC). For me, it was a dream come true. No, I’m not a member of the APC. In fact, I am not a member of any political party. I am one Nigerian with no party affiliation - and I know there are millions of us in this category. At election times, I evaluate candidates and decide who to support. Sure, I have sympathy for small parties, but I am not one to believe that one party is better than the other. Nigerian politicians are essentially the same. Swap the name of one party for the other and you get the same characters. That is why politicians easily defect from party to party without battling with any ideological contradictions.

Why was I so happy then? The birth of the APC, in my opinion, is another giant step in the democratisation project. Democracy is nothing without genuine competition, and one of the undue advantages the People Democratic Party (PDP) has been enjoying since 1999 is a weak opposition. We need a virile and viable opposition to make this democracy more exciting. The PDP goes into every general election knowing that it would win the majority of seats in the National Assembly and control most states, in addition to the small matter of producing the president. There is a popular view that the PDP has been winning through rigging, but even without rigging, can we sincerely say the opposition has ever been primed to dislodge the party?

Now that the APC has been registered, the real journey is just about to begin. Getting registered is the smallest part of the deal; strategising to take over power is the most difficult aspect. For those who are very enthusiastic that the APC is about to take over power, I would like to temper their expectations a bit: the party is still not big enough. With the fusion of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the emergent APC is still less than half of PDP. As things stand today, PDP has 23 governors, compared to APC’s 11. In the Senate, PDP has 75, more than twice APC’s 30. In the House of Representatives, there are 204 PDP members, compared to APC’s 135. In fact, the PDP is stronger now than it was in 1999 when it won only 21 states.

The good news, though, is that things can only get better. The first signal from the emergence of the APC is that the PDP now knows the opposition is no longer as fragmented as it used to be. The APC, which enjoys an amazing media advantage, has the whole world at its feet now. It can take the PDP to the cleaners with a superior manifesto. The PDP has the disadvantage of being the party in power, and therefore the party that has to answer all the questions about Nigeria’s underdevelopment. Nigerians need jobs, constant power supply, good transportation system, and a flourishing economy, among other things. The popular notion is that under the PDP since 1999, Nigeria has not journeyed very far into development. But the new party still has to market itself to Nigerians beyond the mantra of “anyone but PDP”.

For the APC, there are still internal issues to settle. The ACN stands for certain things that the ANPP and CPC are not known to stand for. The ACN preaches fiscal federalism and restructuring of Nigeria along the lines of “true federalism”. It is believed, rightly or wrongly, that the North stands to lose more if the so-called true federalism becomes a reality. Do the ANPP and CPC governors, who are now in the APC, believe in ACN’s concept of “true federalism” and “state police”? Is Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (who, in my opinion, is still the best opposition presidential material despite all his shortcomings) comfortable with “fiscal federalism”? These are ideological issues. The APC also have to deftly tackle the divisive issue of internal democracy in picking candidates for elections. They should go a step ahead of the PDP, else it would be a charade. In fact, they shouldn’t assume the PDP is dead and buried yet - they have to really mobilise support and aggressively build up membership.

Then there are questions about manifesto. How does the APC hope to generate the electricity we badly need? Will the APC privatise power or allocate more resources to the sector? Will tariffs go up or down? The downstream sector has stunted, perhaps because of issues surrounding deregulation, most notably the delicate matter of subsidy. Will the APC retain or remove subsidy? If it won’t remove subsidy, how does it hope to encourage investment in the downstream sector and unleash millions of jobs currently in bondage? As an enlightened young man, I won’t vote for any party because of bags of rice. I want ideas to battle against ideas so that I can make up my mind. There are millions of Nigerians like me. We may not be in the majority but we exist, nonetheless.

Meanwhile, I would like to warn the APC to beware of the group I call the Five Flying PDP Governors. They may have promised to defect to the APC ahead of the 2015 elections, but I don’t trust them. Their agenda may be different from APC’s. Of the Five Flying PDP Governors, only one delivered his state (Adamawa) to Jonathan in the 2011 presidential election. Buhari easily won in Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa and Niger States. This means, essentially, that these governors need Buhari more than Buhari needs them. I am not in a position to advise the APC on how to manage its politics (what do I know about politics, anyway?) but I don’t want to gloat and say “I told you so” when these PDP guys show their true colour in 2015. Nevertheless, neutrals like me are eagerly waiting for the real game to commence...

And Four Other Things...

DEPORTATION SAGA
The Lagos State government policy of relocating rehabilitated destitute persons to their states of origin is generating intense heat. Fourteen of them were recently sent back to Anambra State. Lagos said the rehabilitated persons had sought to be reunited with their families and the state had duly informed the Anambra State government without getting a conclusive response. The rationale behind the policy, if I’m correct, is to decongest Lagos of destitute persons and slums. However, the Nigerian federation is delicately poised and such a policy has more political implications than socio-economic benefits. I just hope things don’t get out of hand, with Anambra threatening to “retaliate”.

TOTAL BLACKOUT
One of my happiest seasons in Nigeria, economically speaking, is July to September. That is when I enjoy constant electricity and spend less on fuelling my generator. I’m able to direct my resources to better use. However, this year has been different: I have never spent so much on diesel. The rainy season bonanza is gone. I hardly get two hours of electricity per day now. If we can’t have power in August, when then can we have it? During dry season? I still believe the Federal Government made a big mistake allowing powerful forces to hound Professor Bart Nnaji out of the power ministry. But who cares?

TURAKI’S TIRADE
Minister of Special Duties and Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Dialogue and Peaceful Resolutions of Security Challenges in the North, Alhaji Kabiru Turaki, got irritated on Thursday when reporters asked him if his committee had made contact with Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. He blurted out: “We can’t go on and be speaking on the same issue everyday now. Much as I want to be speaking with press, you yourselves must be mature in the way you do things. I speak on something today, I speak on it tomorrow and next tomorrow...” Calm down, Turaki, it comes with the terrain. 

WHAT A BLESSING
Just when we thought the glory had departed from our athletics with the exit of the golden generation of Mary Onyali, Chioma Ajunwa, Falilat Ogunkoya and Gloria Alozie, a new queen was born. Her name is Blessing Okagbare. Last week, at the London anniversary games, Okagbare set a new African record of 10.79 seconds in the 100m race in a contest that featured current 100m Olympic gold medallist Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce. With the World Athletics Championship holding in Moscow, Russia, this month, Okagbare may finally wipe the tears off our eyes. For 13 years, we have not picked a single medal from the elite championship. Bless you, girl. 

Thisday

Terror Alert: US Shuts 21 Embassies

President Barrack Obama

By Festus Akanbi

Amid warnings over a fresh planned attack on Western targets, United States officials in Washington and diplomats in US postings around the world were on high alert at the weekend, leading to the closure of 22 embassies and travel alert to American citizens in the Arabian Peninsula.

The British Broadcasting Corporation reported Saturday that the United States is not the only one worried by the latest threat to peace. The United Kingdom, French, and German embassies in Yemen will also be shut Sunday and Monday.

The uneasiness was coming on the heels of warnings that fresh intelligence points to Yemen-based al-Qaida being on the final stages of planning an attack on Western targets.

The warning is specifically tied to Yemen.

According to a report by Associated Press, President Barack Obama’s counterterrorism adviser updated him on the potential al-Qaida threat before he left Saturday for a round of golf in Maryland to kick off his 52nd birthday celebration last weekend, officials said.

An attack last year on a US diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya, on September 11 killed the ambassador and three other Americans.

“There is a significant threat stream, and we’re reacting to it,” said Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He told ABC in an interview to be aired today that the threat was “more specific” than previous ones and the “intent is to attack Western, not just US interests.”

The warning said al-Qaida or its allies might target either US government or private American interests. The alert expires on August 31.

The New York Times reported Friday night that American officials said the US had intercepted electronic communications among senior operatives of al-Qaida.

The State Department said the potential for terrorism was particularly acute in the Middle East and North Africa, with a possible attack occurring on or coming from the Arabian Peninsula.

US officials pointed specifically to Yemen, the home of al-Qaida’s most dangerous offshoot and the network blamed for several notable terrorist plots on the United States.

“Current information suggests that al-Qaida and affiliated organisations continue to plan terrorist attacks both in the region and beyond, and that they may focus efforts to conduct attacks in the period between now and the end of August,” a department statement said.

Britain, Germany and France also announced their embassies in Yemen would be closed Sunday and Monday. British authorities said some embassy staff in Yemen had been withdrawn “due to security concerns.”

Canada’s Foreign Minister John Baird said on Friday there were no plans to close any Canadian missions in the region. But he did urge diplomats and Canadian travellers in the region to exercise added caution.

Interpol, meanwhile, issued a global security alert Saturday in connection with suspected al-Qaida involvement in several recent prison escapes including those in Iraq, Libya and Pakistan. The alert calls on Interpol’s 190 member countries to help determine whether these events are co-ordinated or linked. The Lyon, France-based international police agency said it issues such alerts fairly regularly.

The State Department urged U.S. travellers to take extra precautions overseas, citing potential dangers involved with public transportation systems and other prime sites for tourists. It noted that previous terrorist attacks have centred on subway and rail networks as well as airplanes and boats.

The alert was posted a day after the U.S. announced it would shut many diplomatic facilities Sunday.

Spokeswoman Marie Harf said some missions may stay closed for longer than a day.

Sunday is a business day in Muslim countries, and the diplomatic offices affected stretch from Mauritania in northwest Africa to Afghanistan.

Although the warning coincided with “Al-Quds Day,” the last Friday of the Islamic month of Ramadan when people in Iran and some Arab countries express their solidarity with the Palestinians and their opposition to Israel, U.S. officials played down any connection.

They said the threat wasn’t directed toward a specific U.S. diplomatic facility.

The concern by American officials over the Yemen-based al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula is not new, given the terror branch’s gains in territory and reach during Yemen’s prolonged Arab Spring-related instability.

The group made significant territorial gains last year, capturing towns and cities in the south amid a power struggle in the capital that ended with the resignation of Yemen’s long-time leader, Ali Abdullah Saleh. A U.S.-aided counteroffensive by the government has since pushed the militants back.

Yemen’s current president, Abdo Rabby Mansour Hadi, met with Obama at the White House on Thursday, where both leaders cited strong counterterrorism co-operation.

Earlier this week, Yemen’s military reported a U.S. drone strike killed six alleged al-Qaida militants in the group’s southern strongholds.

ThisDay

APC Registration: PDP Rethinks 2015 Permutation

The Northern governors meeting with  former Vice President, Dr Alex Ekwueme

.

•  Banks on S'South, S'East, N'Central • Kwankwaso, Nyako, Wamakko meet Ekwueme

By Chuks Okocha

The registration of All Progressives Congress may have altered the political calculation of the Peoples Democratic Party ahead of the 2015 presidential election, forcing the ruling party and the Presidency to rethink their strategy and chances.

The Independent National Electoral Commission announced on Wednesday that it had registered APC as a political party following its fulfilment of the statutory requirements.

THISDAY gathers that as a direct consequence of APC’s registration, PDP is re-evaluating its chances within the zones and considering new plans to tackle emerging challenges in its strongholds and weak spots.

Also as part of arrangements towards the 2015 election, the governors of Kano, Sokoto, Jigawa, and Adamawa states met with former Vice President Alex Ekwueme in Abuja.

According to a source who spoke with THISDAY, the re-evaluations by PDP became necessary in view of the “one leg in, one leg out” posture of some PDP governors, especially, from the North-west and North-east since the coming of APC. The source, a chieftain in PDP who preferred anonymity because he was not authorised to speak on the issue, said both the Presidency and the ruling party were banking on the South-south, South-east, and North central for victory in 2015.

Other sources within PDP and the Presidency said that with the look of things, the stronghold of APC would likely be the South-west states of Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti and Oyo, while Ondo State may likely back the second term aspiration of President Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 general election. They said by their calculation, PDP would at least score the mandatory 25 percent of votes in the South-west states and get more than 60 percent of votes in Ondo State.

In the same vein, the sources maintained, PDP would be at home in all the South-south states, including Edo State. This is based on the relationship between Edo State Governor Adams Oshiomhole and Jonathan.

THISDAY learnt that a cordial relationship between the president and the Edo State governor accounted for Oshiomhole’s victory at the last governorship election in the state. There will be no governorship election in Edo State in 2015 – the state will go to the polls to elect a new governor in 2016.

The permutations within PDP and the Presidency include a belief that the party would win in Akwa Ibom, Delta, Cross River, Bayelsa, Edo, and Rivers states with more than 80 percent of the votes cast in each of the states. They also believe the party will coast home in all the South-east states of Enugu, Abia, Imo, Anambra, and Ebonyi.

A source in the Presidency said, “We will carry the day in Anambra and Imo states, despite the fact that it is under the governorship control of APGA. Majority of the voting electorate are in the PDP. The party in Anambra has a majority in the House of Assembly and two out of three senators are members of the PDP. The state governor, Peter Obi, cannot conduct the local government election in the state because of the fear that the PDP will win all the seats.

“Apart from this, Governor Peter Obi is very sympathetic to the PDP. He is a member of the PDP at night and also a member of the President Jonathan economic team. So the state is for the PDP anytime.

“The party is in perfect control in the states of Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia and even Imo. We are aware that Rochas Okorocha became governor because of the crisis in the state, where some members of the PDP worked for his governorship.  The Imo State governor is playing a game. He wants to contest as a presidential candidate. As we talk, his party is in crisis of leadership between Peter Obi, who is seen as a PDP sympathiser, and Governor Okorocha. All these are to the advantage of the PDP both in the governorship and the presidential election.”

THISDAY gathered that if the Anambra State PDP stakeholders fail to agree among themselves on who would be the party’s governorship candidate in the November 16 governorship election in the state, the party and the Presidency may join forces with Obi’s APGA to win the state and later the governor would defect to PDP. The Anambra governorship election is seen as an important test case for PDP ahead of the 2015 presidential campaign.

The source said the North-west was where PDP expected to encounter some problems, but not to the extent that the ruling party will not get the minimum 25 of votes in each of the states.

“PDP will get more than 30 percent in Jigawa State, if Sule Lamido defects to the APC, but if he remains in the party, the state remains a PDP state. The same will happen in Kaduna State. The vice president, Namadi Sambo, will deliver his state for the PDP and President Jonathan.

“We may encounter some problems in Adamawa and Taraba, but other states like Bauchi, Gombe, Borno and Yobe will vote the PDP, or at least, the party will get more than 50 percent,” the source said.

PDP is also expected to win easily in the North-central states of Benue, Plateau, Kogi, and Kwara, according to the source. Its only problem in the zone would be in Niger and Nasarawa states.  Nasarawa State is under the control of Congress for Progressive Change, but the majority of the state House of Assembly members are from PDP.

“Like Jigawa State, if the Niger State governor, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, stays in PDP, the state will vote for the PDP, but if he dumps the PDP and joins the APC, PDP will get more than 30 percent in the state.  The governors of Kwara, Kogi, and Plateau states will ensure that PDP carries the day,” the source said, concluding that by and large, PDP will still carry the day, but “all these plans depend on President Jonathan contesting for a second term.”

Meanwhile, as part of their consultation with prominent elders and political leaders across the country, the governors of Kano, Sokoto, Jigawa, and Adamawa states, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Aliyu Wamakko, Sule Lamido, and Murtala Nyako, respectively, Saturday met with Ekwueme at his Abuja residence.

The governor of Niger State was absent because he was said to have travelled to Mecca for the lesser hajj.

THISDAY learnt that the four governors first met to harmonise their position before the meeting with Ekwueme.

The meeting with the former vice president followed hard on the heels of similar meetings between the five governors and former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former military leaders Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar, former President Shehu shagari, and Jonathan. The five governors were also scheduled to meet former military Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon Saturday. They were similarly expected to meet the former Minister of Defence, General Theophilus Danjuma.

The outcome of the meeting with Ekwueme was not immediately known, but it was gathered that the parley was in connection with the crisis in PDP and the alleged marginalisation of some of the governors in the scheme of things within the party.

THISDAY also gathered that the governors discussed the crisis in Rivers State and other issues affecting the country.
Ekwueme’s response was not known.

A larger meeting of the PDP governors with Jonathan is scheduled for August 12.

ThisDay

APC: It’s the Candidate, Stupid!

Major-General Muhammadu Buhari

SPECIAL REPORT

Cast your mind back to former United States President Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid” was a phrase Clinton campaign managers used to keep the focus on the troubled U.S. economy. Americans love a robust economy; they care a lot about their economic wellbeing. By keeping the debate focused on economic issues, Clinton was able to defeat then President George Bush. Today in Nigeria, that phrase can be adapted for the newly registered All Progressives Congress thus: For APC, it’s the candidate, stupid. The choice of candidate, many believe, is what will make or mar the opposition coalition party. Will APC adopt an open presidential primary election model like the former NRC and SDP or resort to the culture of imposition of candidates, which was a hallmark of the politics of the now defunct Action Congress of Nigeria and Congress for Progressives Change, two of the three coalition parties? Vincent Obia and Chuks Okocha examine the candidate challenge facing the APC…

Buhari is the Issue

The elephant in the room of the opposition merger All Progressives Congress is former Head of State, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari. Will he run in 2015? Buhari has not categorically addressed this issue, though he has not ruled himself out of the race. He had contested for the presidency and lost on three occasions previously (2003, 2007 and 2011). But Buhari, running or not running in 2015, like double-edged sword. There are serious implications both ways. The former head of state is adored by the Northern masses, held with suspicion by the Northern elites but reviled by Christians across the country because of his strong views on issues, for which some doubt if he can truly be called a statesman. These views have raked in widespread condemnation and sometimes scorn for him in some parts of the country. At the height of the post-2011 election riots in some cities in the North, the former head of state who lost the poll declined to condemn the violence outright. In a statement at the time on the post-election violence by his spokesman Yinka Odumakin, Buhari had said: “In the last 24 hours, there has been a spate of violence across certain parts of the country. What started mainly as a political protest reportedly included the burning of worship places. This is sad, unfortunate and totally unwarranted development.

“I must say that this dastardly act is not initiated by any of our supporters and therefore cannot be supported by our party.
“I would therefore like to seize this opportunity to disassociate myself and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) from any such act. I must emphasise that this is purely a political matter, and it should not in any way be turned into an ethnic, religious or regional one”. Even his views on the Boko Haram insurgency and the military crackdown on them are widely perceived as unstatesmanly.
Speaking in Kaduna on June 2 during a Liberty FM Hausa Service Programme, Guest of the Week, Buhari said Boko Haram members were being killed and their houses demolished unlike the “special treatment” given to the Niger Delta militants by the Federal Government. He also blamed President Goodluck Jonathan for failing to tackle the security problems in the country, and argued that the challenges started in the Niger Delta. He had said: “What is responsible for the security situation in the country is caused by the activities of Niger Delta militants. Every Nigerian that is familiar with happenings knows this.

“The Niger Delta militants started it all. What happened is that the governors of the Niger Delta at that time wanted to win their elections, so they recruited youths and gave guns and bullets to them to use against their opponents to win elections by force.
“After the elections, they asked the boys to return the guns, and the boys refused to do so. Because of that the allowance that was being given to them by the governors was stopped.”

Yet, notwithstanding his seeming jingoistic views, the seeming pro-North positions, the APC cannot discountenance his cult following particularly in the North. In the 2011 election, Buhari won 12 states mostly in the North, particularly in the high votes yielding North-west, where support for President Goodluck Jonathan is at best tenuous. On the other side of the divide, the PDP prefers that APC settles for Buhari. It would be celebration in the ruling party’s camp if APC eventually pitches its tenth with Buhari. So how will APC handle this Buhari challenge? With him as its presidential standard bearer, the APC may win massive votes in the North but damned in some other parts of the country; left out of the ticket, the party may lose the much-needed popular votes in the North.

Speaking recently on the 2015 Presidency, the former head of state said his joining the APC was not all about securing the party’s presidential ticket. He said the formation of APC and his joining the group was to help effect the needed change in the polity and not just about his presidential ambition. “If APC fails to give me the ticket, I will remain in partisan politics and in the party. Anyone the party picks as its candidate, I will support him because I will remain in the APC,” he said.

He, however, qualified that position when he told journalists in Minna, that he would forgo his ambition to run for a record fourth time if a better candidate emerged in APC. He was in Minna for the maiden edition of the Sam Nda-Isaiah Annual Lecture Series. “I am willing to step down if there is a formidable and better candidate than me. It is not about me but for the survival of the party. APC is about ensuring internal democracy, whoever emerges is the person I will support. Yes I will be ready to step down,” he said.
But his associates believe Buhari remains the candidate to beat in APC. One of them, Osita Okechukwu, an ardent follower of Buhari from the South-east spoke with THISDAY on the Buhari challenge.

He said: “General Muhammadu Buhari, as the man to beat in the 2015 presidential race, has the greatest assets of integrity, candour and uncommon resolve against corruption. His greatest problem is from those who benefit from the monumental corruption going on in our country. They are so scared of his emergence that they resort to all manner of blackmail and brinkmanship to smear his image.
“GMB, as we fondly call him, is a victim of spurious campaign of blackmail to the extent that they pushed the government to set up the Lemu panel, thinking that he engineered the unfortunate post- 2011 electoral violence.
“When the Lemu report came out they were disappointed.

The report said he was not the culprit of the mayhem. The outcome is that up to date, the President Jonathan regime has refused to issue a White Paper on the report. GMB traducers have not rested, even when he openly declared that he would support any one that wins the presidential primary of the APC. They still throw barbs at him, calling a man who spent 32 months in the presidential electoral tribunal an anti-democrat.
“GMB, to sum it up, is loathed because he is the darling of the masses and can sacrifice his life for the masses. Because he rarely replies his traducers and is by nature a quite type, his traducers have a field day. But in all, it can be said that he has the tool to cure our indisposed polity, the transparency to revamp our decayed infrastructure and the patriotism to reposition our dilapidated social services.”

…And the Swing Votes

Call them renegade governors if you like, these PDP governors may ultimately be the ones to swing the votes in the election. One analyst calls them the ultimate game changers in the build-up to the 2015 election, writes Olawale Olaleye

The eventual registration of the APC on Wednesday by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) may have formerly kicked off the political chess game, with eyes set on the presidential election. While there are a number of factors that may work both in favour and against the two major parties, PDP and APC, based on their relative strength and support base, there is yet another factor that may swing the votes in the end: the nine aggrieved PDP governors and their sympathisers.

9 Aggrieved PDP Governors Plus Obasanjo
With the embattled chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) and Governor of Rivers State, Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, as the point man at present, are governors, who are not just big players in their respective states but also in their regions. They are the ones who may eventually swing the election.
Apart from Amaechi, the other governors are Sule Lamido (Jigawa), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Saidu Dakingari (Kebbi), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara) and Ibrahim Dankwambo (Gombe).

Interestingly, while the nine governors are the ones that have openly shown where they stand, there are two other governors who, though have filed behind President Jonathan at present, are feared not to be with him in the real sense of it. One of them is from the North-east while the other is believed to come from the South-south region.

To say, therefore, that these governors, given their influence as PDP leaders, and their political networking, can determine who becomes the next president is simply pronouncing the obvious. These governors have fallen out with President Jonathan and the PDP leadership, though there are recent moves to reconcile with them and put the PDP house in order. The governors are believed to have the total support of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, who in turn has also fallen out with President Jonathan and the PDP leadership, and now claims he wants to correct his legacy.

These PDP governors had all but reached an agreement to work with the APC leadership and indicated they would be willing to defect to the party, but with a caveat that they must be part of the decision-making process in determining the APC presidential candidate and that Buhari would not be the candidate, which unfortunately the APC could not guarantee at the moment.

They had held several meetings with the APC leadership where they made it clear they would not support President Jonathan for re-election but based their support for the opposition APC on the choice of a candidate that would be acceptable to both parties.
The nine governors have been meeting; they have resolved to stick together. Their first plan is to field a candidate against Jonathan in the PDP presidential primary, if it ever holds. Note that the PDP leadership is also pondering options to give the president a soft-landing, including the one of first refusal.

However, if they lose to the president, they would not waste time to turn to their Plan B, which is to leave the party en mass and work with APC or float a third force.
But the governors have also not completely ruled out reconciliation within PDP, as they had indicated they would stay within the party and fight. If Jonathan is able to reconcile PDP and bring them back into the fold, they would strengthen the party. But against this backdrop, it is believed that whichever side the governors and their sympathisers swing may determine victory at the end of the day.
Though they are considered renegade governors, one analyst describe them as the real game changer in the 2015 general election.

Merger of Opposites
In terms of past leanings and antecedents, a majority of those who have come together to form the All Progressives Congress are no less than strange bedfellows. But they have a rare opportunity to make history, writes Olawale Olaleye

Expectedly, there was an uncommon elation on Wednesday when the news of the APC registration filtered in, though it had become palpable over a period of time that there was no stopping the registration.
A quick run down on the major characters in APC, from the stalwarts of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), would show that what binds them is not ideology or political philosophy but a resolve to grab power from the PDP.

From General Buhari to former ACN National Leader Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, all those who have come together to form APC are people with different political backgrounds and tendencies, strange bedfellows more or less. They must, however, pull together their individual strengths, work towards building unity and forging a common bond to work together.
Therefore, with a free and fair primary election to determine the candidates of the party, APC could rewrite its profile and those of its leaders in the artery of the nation’s body polity. But if it sticks to its old culture of imposition of candidate, this may sound the death knell of the opposition challenge and all the dreams and hopes of their supporters. Now, the leading lights in APC…

Muhammadu Buhari
Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) is the Chairman Board of Trustees (BoT) of the party. He has been contesting the presidential election since 2003 consistently.  He challenged former President Obasanjo and late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua in 2003 and 2007 respectively. In March 2010, he dumped the ANPP for the CPC, a party he founded.  He was the CPC presidential candidate in the April 16, 2011 general election and ran against President Jonathan of PDP, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of ACN and Ibrahim Shekarau of ANPP.

Buhari cuts a picture of the incorruptible and this is believed to have earned him respect and admiration from Nigerians, especially the grassroots who seek an end to the endless sleaze in government. In addition, he also enjoys cult-like following, particularly in the Northern part of the country. He headed the Petroleum Trust Fund (Special), an interventionist agency to rebuild the nation’s decaying infrastructure, set up by the late military President, General Sani Abacha regime. He was said to have discharged himself creditably, but allegations that some of the roads built by the agency were concentrated in the North abound till today. But with his seeming anti-corruption credentials, many doubt if he can genuinely work with some in the APC.

Bola Tinubu
The former Lagos State governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is one of the National Leaders of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).  Tinubu, who was elected Senator for the Lagos West constituency in Lagos State in the 1992 election on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), was elected governor in 1999 on the platform of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). He was the only governor that survived the 2003 political whirlwind that brought other AD states in the South-west under the control of PDP.
An active player in the process that culminated in the registration of APC, Tinubu has been leveraging his contacts to reach out to key political figures from various parts of the country to ensure the success of the APC in future elections. He is a major voice of the opposition in Nigeria. But with his background, many doubts if a Tinubu can trust the military, whether or not in uniform.

Bisi Akande
Chief Bisi Akande was governor of Osun State between 1999 and 2003 on the platform of the AD. He was ACN Chairman and now the Interim Chairman of APC.  Although by virtue of his office he commands huge influence, he may have bought into the merger initiative by circumstance.

Ali Modu Sheriff
Chairman, Board of Trustees (BoT) of the ANPP, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff, was elected governor of Borno State in 2003. He was the first governor in Borno State to win reelection. Subsequently, Sheriff was elected Senator for Borno Central on the platform of the United Nigeria Congress Party (UNCP) during the late General Sani Abacha regime. His tenure as governor ended in 2011 and was succeeded by the incumbent Borno State Governor Kashim Shettima. He has been a force to reckon with in the formation of the APC. Unfortunately, not many see him in the same camp with Tinubu, Buhari and the likes.

Ogbonnaya Onu
The first Executive Governor of Abia State between February 1992 and December 1993, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, was the ANPP National Chairman before the merger came full circle. He is no doubt committed to the merger deal. And for a man who had built a reputation for himself over the years, he may find it difficult to work with some in the APC.

Tony Momoh
Prince Tony Momoh was Minister of Information and Culture between 1986 and 1990, during the military regime of General Ibrahim Babangida. He was also Director of Dr. Alex Ekwueme Presidential Campaign Organization in 1999. He was equally the Chairman, Media and Publicity of the ANPP Campaign Organisation in the 2003 and 2007 general elections. Also as Chairman of the Political Committee of the Muhammadu Buhari Organisation, Momoh was appointed Chairman of CPC in January 2011 ahead of the April 2011 general election of that year.

Malam Ibrahim Shekarau
Two-term governor of Kano State on the platform of ANPP, Ibrahim Shekarau was the ANPP presidential candidate in April 2011 general election. He believes in APC and has been leading the ANPP team in the merger deal until he was replaced by the ANPP Chairman Ogbonnaya Onu.

Ahmed Sani Yarima
Controversial Senator Ahmed Sani Yerima was governor of Zamfara State from May 1999 to May 2007 on the platform of the ANPP. He represents Zamfara West in the Senate and is also Deputy Minority Leader in the Senate. Although he had wanted to be ANPP’s presidential candidate for the 2007 presidential election, he later withdrew from the contest at the party’s national convention to pave the way for Buhari.

He was active in the APC formation. In fact, he was arrested and later released on March 9, 2013 in Kaduna after taking part in a live Hausa radio programme broadcast by the Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria (FRCN) for saying if INEC failed to register the newly-formed APC, the party would embark on a peaceful protest to the Eagle Square, Abuja. He remains a major force in his state of Zamfara but has penchant for courting needless controversies.

Rochas Okorocha
Another controversial figure in APC is Governor Rochas Anayo Okorocha of Imo State, who led a faction of APGA into the merger. Okorocha has been around for some time too. In 1999, he competed in the PDP primaries for Imo governorship. He also contested to be ANPP presidential candidate in 2003 but lost. He, however, formed the Action Alliance (AA) party in 2005 and planned to become as a presidential candidate on the AA platform in the 2007 elections. Ambitious Okorocha also gave the PDP national chairmanship a shot in September 2007.

Tom Ikimi
Chief Tom Omoghegbe Ikimi is an Edo State-born politician and former Foreign Affairs Minister between 1995 and 1998 in the military government of General Abacha.
He is one of the representatives of ACN in the merger and was chairman of the ACN Merger Committee. All the strategic meetings that culminated in the formation and registration of APC were held at his residence. The name of the new party was announced at his residence in Abuja on February 6, 2013. But he lost out in the bid to emerge as the national chairman of the emergent party.

Chief Audu Ogbeh
A former National Chairman of PDP, Chief Audu Innocent Ogbeh, contested election into the Benue State House of Assembly on the Platform of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in 1979 and became deputy speaker of the assembly. A former Federal Minister of Communications and Steel Development, Ogbeh was forced to resign as PDP National Chairman due to his criticism of Obasanjo’s handling of the crisis in Anambra State.  He was the chairman of the 20-member APC Manifesto Committee (Motto, Slogan and Message), and his name has been touted as also a possible presidential candidate.

Olusegun Osoba
Two-time governor of Ogun State, Chief Olusegun Osoba, had been involved in the merger process from day one and was in virtually all the committees that matter in the run-up to the APC registration. He is reputed to have a wide network of contacts; the journalist-turned politician understands the political terrain well.

The 11 APC Governors
Other than those listed above, there is a major power bloc in the APC and that is the group of its 11 governors. They are Kashim Shettima (Borno); Adams Oshiomhole (Edo); Ibrahim Geidam (Yobe); Tanko Al-Makura (Nasarawa); Abdulaziz Yari (Zamfara); Rochas Okorocha (Imo); (Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti); Babatunde Fashola, SAN (Lagos); Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun); Abiola Ajimobi (Oyo); and Rauf Aregbesola (Osun).

The governors have been part of critical meetings with opposition party leaders, involving Buhari, Tinubu, Sheriff and national chairmen of the three merging parties.
They have also held meetings in Lagos, Abuja, Borno and Owerri over the formation of APC. The governors set up zonal contact and mobilisation committees across the six geopolitical zones to facilitate the party’s birth.

The Tortuous Journey to Registration
Onyebuchi Ezigbo examines the challenges that promoters of the All Progressives Congress overcame to achieve registration and what lies ahead for the party

It was not meant to be an easy venture but through share determination, dogged approach and sacrifices, the coalescing political parties of Action Congress of Nigeria ( ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) took the step to form a merger and to everyone’s surprise got the new merger platform registered. The road towards the merger was indeed a rough one and the actors themselves were apparently aware of this having gone a similar route before and faltered.  Some political  parties first attempted an alliance in the 1999 Presidential election and tried to field a common candidate then in person of Chief Olu Falae on the platform of All Peoples Party (APP) but things did  not work out. Another attempt was also made in 2011, just before the general election by ACN and CPC and for weeks, the dramatist persona held the nation spellbound to the extent that even the ruling PDP became jittery on the likely threat posed by the move. In the end, the  alliance also failed to realise its objectives and it’s promoters became almost frustrated and abandoned the talks. 

However rather than get disillusioned over their past failures, the leadership of the three opposition political parties, Action Congress of Nigeria ( ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) summoned  courage and re-opened talks again, but this time they went for outright merger instead of mere loose alliance as was the case in the past.  Although the merger talks were kick-started by the top leadership of the parties, who brought their individual charisma and experiences to bear on the negotiations, it was not until the merging parties took the unique step to set up merger committees that the foundation for formalised relationship began. 

The history of the emergence of the new mega party will probably not be complete without the mention of the efforts and sacrifices made by the membership of the joint merger committees representing all the parties and interest groups involved in the political movement.  Part of the initial pessimism that  heralded the merger plan was that based on past experiences, there were fears that the parties and other interest groups promoting the venture were probably not compatible and as such may not be able to  agree  on a  common  platform.  Critics  were also skeptical  about  the  ability of the  parties to resolve  the  issues  of  ideologies,  manifesto,  logo  and  constitution for  the would-be  new party. 

Perhaps who looked like the first sign of a major break-through in the new coalition was when the merging successfully  floated a common constitution, manifesto, logo, slogan and flag for APC with a  subsequent concurrent approvals at individual party conventions. The choice of the name APC sparked off a row between the three coalition parties and another group, the African Peoples Congress leading to serious altercations between the geoups on one hand and INEC.  While African Peoples Congress was claiming tomhave filed its registration before the three opposition parries in March, the later said its choice of APC was made public since Feburuary this year. It took the quick intervention  of the commission to disapprove the application filed by African Peoples Congress, to douse the brewing tension in the polity. The second and perhaps the most challenging stage of the merger negotiation process came when the parties were to choose interim national officers as required by INEC guidelines.  Political gladiators and their parties could not resist the temptation to flex muslces with each other as they  deployed all manner of intrigues and manipulations in a bid  to secure an edge in the emerging party structure.  It took the ingenuity and perseverance of the Leadership of the parties and their governors who met day and night until truce was finally reached on how to distribute the APC interim leadership structure.

After crossing the party leadership hurdle and making final submission  of application to INEC, then began the waiting game. At first, it was as if the merger process will crumble at the table of INEC, following a court case hovering over the heads of the merging parties and which a rival political group had threatened to use it in frustrating the registration of APC. The weekend that followed the approval of the registration application of the merging parties was full of anxiety and apprehension with leaders of the opposition coalition alleging a possible sabotage by officials of INEC.
It was ACN that blew the first lead,  asking  INEC to be fair and unbiased in handling the  registration  of the merging registration application.

The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, said since the  promoters of APC has met all the requirements to consummate their merger,  INEC has no defensible reason not to approve the merger.

However, Lai Mohsmmed tried to avoid direct accusation of INEC by insisting that inspite of media reports concerning the antics of some negative forces within INEC over APC’s registration, the emerging party’s leadership had no doubt that in the end, the electoral body will do what is right in accordance with the law.  “We urge INEC not to compromise its neutrality and integrity by acting contrary to the law. We remind the commission that Nigerians are keenly watching how it will handle this merger issue, and whatever it does will determine whether or not Nigerians can count on it to organize a free, fair and credible elections in 2015.

‘’We believe we are on the same page with INEC as far as this trail-brazing merger is concerned, and that has been confirmed by the INEC spokesman, and we therefore call on the commission to do the proper thing right now - which is the registration of APC.
‘’There is no doubt that INEC is under tremendous pressure, from both the card-carrying PDP members of the commission and their collaborators who are mortally afraid of the merger, and who will want the electoral body to commence, right now, the process of rigging the 2015 election in their favour.
‘’Given the already over-heated polity ahead of the 2015 elections, we believe INEC will not do anything that will aggravate the situation,”

‘’We are convinced that INEC has no discernible reason to write such a letter to us. In the first instance, there exists no court injunction anywhere restraining the commission from registering APC. There could be many court cases, but until there is a court order, no one can preempt what a court will do and act on that basis. In the meantime, ACN went on to appeal to all the supporters of the emerging APC across the country to remain calm over the registration issue. ‘’We know that many of our teeming supporters are upset by the report of the shenanigans in INEC over this issue. But it is important for them to remain law-abiding as we await the decision of INEC. We are confident, going by the words of INEC itself, that the court case instituted by those laying claim to the APC acronym has no bearing on what is going on”.  It was not only the ACN that was caught up in the tension and anxiety that gripped the parties.  ANPP through its National Publicity Secretary of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Chief Emma Eneukwu urged the commission not to succumb to pressures from agents of the the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to frustrate the registration of the new opposition coalition party. Eneukwu said although it will be a shock to the merging parties if INEC rejects registration application for APC, they have the capacity to forge ahead.  All the worries and permutations eventually took flight when on Wednesday INEC made a surprise announcement in a statement signed by the secretary of the commission, Alhaji Abduallhi Kaugama, that the merging parties’s application for the registration of APC was successful

INEC letter to the merging parties said: “The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has approved the application by three political parties – the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) – to merge into one, to be known as the All Progressives Congress.  On considering the application, the commission found that the applicant-parties have met all statutory requirements for the merger, and has accordingly granted their request.

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