Scrap JAMB, UBEC now –Don

 BY MOTUNRAYO JOEL 

Prof. Olakunle Lawal

Former Commissioner of Education in Lagos State, Prof. Olakunle Lawal, tells MOTUNRAYO JOEL that many private universities employ lecturers that fall below standard

 With Nigerian universities locked for the past five weeks because of the Academic Staff Union of Universities’ strike, how can such action be prevented in the future?

The first issue that has to be addressed is the issue of commitment on the part of every party involved. ASUU is very committed to improving education in Nigeria. At the same time, it should be noted that some of the approaches taken by the union are discomforting.

The commitment of ASUU is not in doubt; it’s the commitment of the bureaucrats that handle routine educational matters in government that is in question. Once the issue of commitment is sorted out, we can be sure that everything else will fall in line. This leads to the issue of the challenge which public universities face-the growing tendency for top level administration officials to establish private universities. For that reason, one would have expected that there should be a response by the government to improve on the funding of our public universities but unfortunately, the reverse is the case. The Federal Government should be able to sign an agreement and implement it. It all boils down to commitment on the part of the government.

Can we blame the nation’s education structure for the frequent strike in the sector?

We cannot solely blame the structure because it has never changed from the time when it produced great results. It’s now that people are trying to introduce practicality into education. But we should know that university education is not about practicality. It’s about the development of high level manpower for the economy. What we now have is slight modification which does not affect the input of education at the higher institution level. In fact the danger is that we have too many private universities for Nigeria’s level of development. We have so many of these private universities having teachers who are far below standard. The structure is not to blame; the teachers and non-teaching infrastructure trigger strike actions.

Do you think the government has too many roles to handle in the education sector?

Yes the government is munching, trying to force everything down its throat. Look at what is happening in secondary education; the Federal Government has no business with secondary education. The best that can be done is to give out Federal Government colleges to the states to manage. The challenge that the Federal Government has is the divisional policies that infiltrate government policies. For example, former President Olusegun Obasanjo tried to hands off the management of secondary schools and teachers were against his move because it was assumed that they will be fired. In my view, when the Federal Government hands over its colleges, there should be the relocation of human assets in which all these teachers will be absorbed into the state government and those with additional qualification will be posted back to the ministry. Once the government does this, it has enough time to handle core issues. Its role should be limited to curricula development at the secondary school level. Those are two areas that the Federal Government should concentrate on. Bodies such as the  Universal Basic Education should be scrapped. It is a very big pipeline for fraud. In 2004/2005, UBEC was awarding contracts to supply plastic chairs to all primary schools. That was a ridiculous action when it should have concentrated on research and development in education. This goes to show that there are too many bureaucracies. Once the interest of the Federal Government is whittled down from primary school and secondary school level, then it can naturally concentrate on tertiary education.

Apart from UBEC, which other educational agencies do you consider irrelevant to the system?

UBEC has no business existing, it is a big bureaucracy. Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board is another one to be scrapped. All these bodies are not performing. National Universities Commission was established as a yardstick for measuring standard in other universities. But now, the NUC has expanded its goals beyond its borders. There are just too many bureaucracies. And the idea of restructuring has to do with role defining. There should be definition of roles, goals and missions for each of these agencies. If we can properly settle this area, then we can talk of the appropriately skilled manpower to be put in place. There are too many dead wood organisations that should be scrapped in the sector.

Do you think that the nation’s falling education standard should be addressed at the primary level or between the secondary and tertiary level?

I don’t know what people mean when they say that our education standard has fallen. The standard is still there but the quality of the people that are in charge of auditing our education appears to be weak. I read a lot of essays from my students and I’m so surprised at the kind of grammar they write. It’s unbelievable. So it has to do with the developmental process and how they entered the university which obviously was through the examination conducted by JAMB. Once these students pass JAMB, the problem escalates.

The truth is that we should return the university system back to the days of concessional exams. Let us scrap JAMB, once this is done, universities can then manage their own internal examinations. Individual interests should not matter once national interest is at stake.

What did you do differently during your tenure as Lagos State commissioner for education?

The first thing I did was to organise the rebuilding of all public schools in the state, which was my idea. Then, there was the problem of school buildings collapsing, killing children and spreading across the state. In one of the meetings, I decided we should do something about it. This then led to the establishment of the Special Committee on the Rehabilitation of Public Schools in Lagos.  I also implemented the Teaching Service Reform law. This was because teachers who had spent over 30 years in service could only be appointed as directors, I found this unfair. So it was a tug of war between the commissioner and bureaucrats. Former Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu then set up a committee made up of myself, the special adviser of education, attorney general and head of service to look into the issue. At the end, I presented a memo which contained the enactment of the Teaching Service Reform law.  Lagos State was then restructured into six educational districts and what we did was to appoint an experienced teacher as the tutor general/permanent secretary. The idea was to set up a body that would reward teachers who were putting in their best. By the time I left the Ministry of Education, at least six states had come to understudy how I did it and they introduced the idea in their states.

We also made frantic efforts to return discipline to our schools through the code of conduct which was signed by teachers, students and parents. For example, if a student was late for a number of hours, there is a punishment which the principal can institute immediately. Before the code of conduct was designed, the principal could not do anything. We also established new schools across the state. There was also an improvement in the funding of Lagos State University. I was the commissioner who recommended and got the approval to divide the money that we normally accrued to LASU on a monthly basis from the money we accrued to the Lagos State College of Medicine.

What were the challenges that you faced?

I tried to deal with unlicensed private schools and what I got in return was court cases. These schools took me to court. Another challenge was the introduction of lifelong sex education. We had several cases of pupils getting pregnant. So I partnered with a non-governmental organisation to introduce sex education in public schools. Then, the Catholic churches, Ansar-Ud-Deen Society and so many religious organisations took offence.  I also battled with in-house corruption.

Is education in Lagos State where it should be now?

Education in Lagos is far better than most states in the country, but the challenge of increasing population is affecting the state. The population is expanding, but facilities are not expanding. The state is badly congested.

People complain that education in Lagos is expensive compared to other states. Is this true?

Then, they should move back to their states of origin. People should be ready to pay. If you want to come to Lagos go ahead, but you must be ready to pay.

Shouldn’t education be completely free up to tertiary level?

It should be free; the debate has always been on as to what should be the actual cost of education. But as you know, it’s a very sensitive matter that I don’t wish to dwell on.  I didn’t pay any fee in the university. However, I think the government should review the cost of tertiary education.

It seems the scholarship that helped many Nigerians get quality education abroad no longer exists. Why is this so?

The truth is that the scholarship matter is based on who you know. I have no apology for that. But those who are very good can get scholarship. However, the challenge of scholarship is the result of dwindling resources caused by corruption, and it has affected the award of scholarships today.

Punch

PDP members are welcome to APC – Odigie-Oyegun

 BY LEKE BAIYEWU 

Odigie-Oyegun

Third Republic governor of Edo State and leader of the All Progressives Congress, John Odigie-Oyegun, in this interview with LEKE BAIYEWU, highlight what the newly-registered party has in stock to win the hearts of the electorate

Now that the Independent National Electoral Commission has finally registered the All Progressives Congress as a party, what is the next step?

First, I’m not a member of the APC interim executive. I’ll be speaking from the backdrop of what we’ve been saying and my personal perspective of what the future holds. For me, we have completed phase one; the critical phase. It is like building a vehicle with which to undertake a journey. We have completed the vehicle; we have tested it and it is roadworthy. Now, we are going to move into the phase two, which include building the structure and institution that will support this vehicle. This means that we are going to set up the structure of the party in all the states. We are going to design our message and move to the state, local government and ward congresses to set up the structures of this new, progressive party. And of course, we are going to organise a convention that will elect national officers.

Some people keep on talking about ideology. It is very simplistic to be shouting for ideology. The days of communism, capitalism and socialism have all gone. What is important today is who best serves the interests of the people; who best heeds to the yearnings of the people; who is best placed to restore hope to the people; by what mix of policies can we return smiles to the faces of our people? These are the issues. It is not whether it is communism or capitalism. This means that we are taking very seriously the burden of meeting the yearnings of the Nigerian people. We are going to come out at the proper time with a mission statement and it will address all the questions of the ordinary Nigerians. Things they have been crying over for many years; thing we all have been agitating for; things that have seem insoluble for many years; these are the things this party will address. And we are going to act within a time frame; we are not just going to make promises. We are going to say ‘hold us responsible, if by this time we have not addressed your issues.’ We are going to be that specific.

Phase three is to plan for elections. Fortunately, we are going to drive the vehicle soon in Anambra State and in Delta State before then, because there’s a senatorial vacancy there. What is important is that we are going to tell the people of this country what we have in stock for them.

Has APC’s registration changed your perception of the Independent National Electoral Commission?

On matters like this, I have a conservative state of mind. We are very sentimental in this country. For example, when we get a judgment from a court that favours us, we blow trumpets, praising the judiciary to high heavens. But when we get contrary judgments, we also condemn judges to high heavens. I don’t want to fall into that kind of situation. Yes, INEC has done well. It has shown that it has some backbone; it has shown that it can resist pressure. But let me make a point clear, it was because we too made it easy for INEC because we dotted all i’s and across all t’s. As we were negotiating, we had in front of us the constitution of the Federal Republic and the Electoral Act. Whatever was prescribed by these two documents, we made sure we over-fulfilled. It is also good to say that INEC did well by admitting that we fulfilled all the conditions. Obviously, we were not going to bend to any pressure. After all, there are cases in court over the acronym ‘APC.’ If INEC was very weak, they could have used that as an excuse. But they were bold and forthright. My prayer is that they should carry these courage and forthrightness into the future electoral processes.

It is going to be a very stressful undertaking, giving the kind of drums that are being beating in the polity now, but I’m confident, with what they have done, that they are going to do much better in the future.

Leaders of the APC have always described the party as a better alternative to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party. What are the qualities the APC has that the PDP lacks?

We are not really an alternative because we are espousing different philosophies and different ways of doing things. We don’t want to see ourselves as an alternative; all we are doing is that we are presenting the Nigerian public with a real, credible choice. And we are going to tell them why they should prefer us to the PDP, based on records. These things are clear; the performance of the PDP in office and the performance of our governors in office. If we just pick a state like Lagos and the achievements recorded there, and translate it into the Federal Government, you can imagine the dramatic change this nation will go through. There’s a choice now. Yes, if you want to call it an alternative, let’s not argue over it. But the Nigerian public now has credible choice. Without choice, there’s no democracy.

What precisely is the credibility you’re talking about? Can you identify the difference between the two parties?

I singled out Lagos State, let me broaden it. I’m from Benin in Edo State. What has happened in almost five years in Edo State was inconceivable in the last 10 years. We had 10 years of PDP non-stop governance. Under the APC – it’s no more ACN – administration of Governor Adams Oshiomhole, we have been able to achieve in four years what we were not able to achieve in 10 years of PDP administration. There’s no comparison. What we want to say is that welfare of the people is going to be the core of governance under the APC. That is a significant, major difference. Our slogan says ‘change.’ We cannot continue business as usual; we are offering the people a change for the better. We are offering a new way of doing things. We are offering governance that will produce results in line with what is the aspiration of the people. That is the difference.

Some people are of the opinion that the APC may not be better after all because some ex-members of the PDP, which the APC often condemn, are in the new party and more of them are still coming to eventually make the two parties look alike. Do you agree?

It a bit of a puerile argument; it is a very simplistic one. What matters is not where the individual is coming from, it is the atmosphere of where he is going; guiding principles, strength and commitment of where he is going. We can only come in when he agrees to be governed by the standards of the new institution. We don’t want people at all cost, no. It is not about the individuals in the PDP, it is the political atmosphere of governance in the party that has enthroned impunity and corruption. And that has become the core of governance. That is not what will operate in the APC. The chance is clear. The atmosphere in the PDP is already corrupted with impunity and cannot change. Any PDP man, who wants to join us in efforts to reposition this nation, must be ready to live by the standards of the APC. If you cannot, then of course, you shouldn’t even bother to come. The atmosphere, standards and principles in political parties are different. If you’re coming into our party, you must be ready to live and abide by the standards for good governance that the APC is meant to establish.

Analysts have also said selfish interests of APC leaders and regional interests would not allow APC last long. Have you ever envisaged this?

All I can say is that it is laughable. Those issues will always be there; conflict of interests will always be there. But, we are bound together by one iron-cast objective, and that is the welfare of our people. The greatness of this nation is what binds us together. The conflicts you’re talking about came up during the process of negotiating the merger and they were all addressed. It was one of the greatest happenings in my life to see Nigerians making sacrifices that you never thought they were capable of making. That is historic of the APC. There’ll always be clash of interests, no doubt about that. The key issue will always be ‘what is in the best interest of Nigerians; what is the best interest of the nation; what is the right thing to do.’ We cannot be divided by clashes of interests, no, we can’t. We have already established a benchmark for resolving all these conflicts because everybody has accepted that this nation has suffered enough and that it is the time for change. That is the driving force of the new movement called the APC.

Punch

Oil Theft and Criminal Cartels

The Verdict By Olusegun Adeniyi.

At the public presentation of the 2009-2011 audit report of our oil and gas industry on Monday, the National Extractive Industries Transparency Initiatives (NEITI) governing board Chairman, Mr. Ledum Mitee, disclosed that Nigeria lost over $10.9 billion worth of crude oil to thieves within the period. Unfortunately, it would seem that the sustained pillaging of our national resources is a problem that will not go away. I make this point knowing that the NEITI current submission reflects the repeated positions of all actors in the sector for more than a decade now. Today, I reproduce for the readers’ attention and evaluation a column written some nine years ago on this page and on this same matter, complete with the dire implications for our economy and national security. What is worrisome about the recollection is that it might as well have been written after the last NEITI report:

23 September, 2004: The United States-based Human Rights Watch, in a recent report, stated that oil theft accounts for 10 percent of Nigeria's daily production. Describing illegal oil bunkering as Nigeria's most profitable private business since it is estimated to yield between $750 million to $3.5 billion annually (depending on the season), the report also stated that the violence being witnessed in the Niger Delta has a direct link to the illegal business: "Oil has become literally the fuel for the violence-despite the fact that in theory it should be easy to stop its theft (it is hard to hide a tanker and easy to trace its owner)". The Human Rights Watch is wrong here. In a nation where big vessels "disappear", bunkers are not that hard to hide! But the report gets interesting when it talks about the modus operandi and those believed to be involved and I want to quote more extensively:

“Illegal oil bunkering-long prevalent in the Delta-has become a sophisticated operation that no longer requires the cooperation of oil company staff to operate equipment at wellheads or allow access-though there are still reports that they are involved. The bunkerers tap directly into pipelines away from oil company facilities, and connect from the pipes to barges that are hidden in small creeks with mangrove forest cover. Frequently, both in the riverine areas and on dry land, the police and military are involved in the process or are paid off to take no action against those tapping into pipelines. In November 2001, the Nigerian federal government set up a Special Security Committee on Oil Producing Areas, ‘to address the prevailing situation in the oil producing areas which have, in recent past, witnessed unprecedented vandalisation of oil pipelines, disruptions, kidnappings, extortion and a general state of insecurity.’ Reporting to President Obasanjo in February 2002 (in a report that has not been published), the committee noted that a ‘major threat to the oil industry ... arises from the activities of a 'cartel or mafia', composed of highly placed and powerful individuals within the society, who run a network of agents to steal crude oil and finished product from pipelines in the Niger Delta region.’ The committee indicated that many of the militant youth groups responsible for halting or diverting oil production and preventing free traffic on the waterways ‘could be enjoying the patronage of some retired or serving military and security personnel.’ Despite this high-level recognition of the seriousness of the problem, there appears to be no proactive government strategy for investigating the organized illegal oil bunkering rackets. There have been some seizures of the vessels involved. More than nineteen vessels used in the illegal bunkering business are reported to have been seized by the army and navy in the year to July-though it is often not clear what happens to their cargoes thereafter...”

According to media reports, now confirmed by the authority, MT African Pride, one of the 15 vessels arrested for alleged bunkering in August last year (2003), and carrying 15,000 barrels of crude, is missing. Testifying before a House of Representatives Committee, the Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Sunday Afolayan, said his men were helpless to arrest what he called "practice of topping", obviously the Naval euphemism for oil theft. He blamed the Police for this sudden disappearance of a vessel on the high sea, arguing: "It is my responsibility to arrest the ship and another to prosecute. I have made arrests and handed over and it is not my duty to do anything beyond my constitutional duties."

Probed further, Afolayan said there was a directive in January this year (2004) from President Olusegun Obasanjo to the effect that the vessel should be handed over to the police for prosecution after the cargo had been taken away by the NNPC. Those who attended the said meeting were Nuhu Ribadu, Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC); Funso Kupolokun, Group Managing Director, NNPC; and the Police IG, Tafa Balogun. Afolayan, in the course of his testimony at the House (where we got to know another vessel, M.T. Jimoh, has also disappeared) said the Navy had begun an in-house probe into the matter resulting in the court-martial of some officers and ratings over their alleged roles after pushing the blame on the Police. But the Naval Chief did not have the last say on the matter.

Balogun, in his testimony, said that consequent upon the directive of the President, he set up a panel led by DIG Ogbonna Onovo (who would later become IGP) to take custody of the vessel and suspects but the Flag Officer Commanding Western Naval Command, Rear Admiral Bob Manuel, refused to oblige them on the grounds that he was yet to be briefed by Afolayan. However, when the investigating team returned to Abuja to express their complaints, a copy of a signal from one Agbiti with number NHQ/MS0/00/05/02/04 was handed to them by the Naval Headquarters. At about the same time, according to Balogun, another letter was issued to the police stating that the Navy would take custody of the ship but would release the suspects.

Said Balogun: "MT African Pride, reported missing by the Navy was never, and I repeat, never in the custody of the police. At no time were any of the ships taken over by the police. It is not even a question of MT African Pride, all the vessels have always been with the Navy. If anybody says he handed over a ship to me, let him produce the handing over note because there is no way the handover of such magnitude can take place without a handover note. The vessels in question were at the high seas where the police have no access to them. The Navy deployed helicopters and ships to trace the MT African Pride and it was on the pages of newspapers that I read it. If the ship had not been in their custody, why did they deploy ships and helicopters to search for it?"

Without prejudice to the work of the House Committee, it must be noted that we are not just talking about a missing ship here. We are actually talking about the theft, corruption and mismanagement of our oil wealth, aided and abetted by officialdom and the implication for our economic well-being and national security. I repeat, nobody should confuse the issue here, this matter is about oil, not ship. And in another country where leaders are actually accountable to the people, several public officials would have lost their jobs by now, assuming they are not already in jail. But because this is Nigeria, we have a situation in which arrested vessels carrying stolen oil just 'disappear' into thin air and the Naval Chief can only tell us some cock-and-bull story!

Since the ugly development broke, I have had time to speak to several people in the oil sector as well as in the Navy and I am privy to some damning reports. I also have it on good authority that the Navy has on several occasions in the last one decade arrested vessels carrying stolen crude but up till now, there has not been one single prosecution of these criminals. The oil majors have also written several reports to the government on the activities of these illegal bunkerers sometimes mentioning names and pointing out the danger of their activities since a large chunk of their 'returns on investment' go into the purchase of arms. But nothing happened. And we should get the fact right: what we call illegal bunkering is simply armed robbery in that arms, sophisticated ones for that matter, are used to dispossess Nigerians of our commonwealth by some unscrupulous, but obviously highly placed, elements. And now that some vessels are in custody of the Navy and should help in the investigations, assuming anybody is really interested in investigations, they are now conveniently "missing".

Whichever way one looks at the Nigerian condition today, one cannot but agree with the conclusion reached in the July 2003 IMF Working Paper titled “Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria”. It reveals that over a 35-year period Nigeria's cumulative revenues from oil (after deducting the payments to foreign companies) have amounted to $350 billion at 1965 prices yet only few people feel the impact of this huge wealth.

The authors, Xaxier Sala-i-Martin, a professor of Economics at Columbia University and Arvind Subramanian, an Advisor, Research Department, IMF argued that on just about every conceivable metric, Nigeria's performance since independence has been abysmal essentially because of oil. Check out the statistics: While Nigeria's Per Capita GDP was US$1,113 in 1970, it had declined to US$1,084 in 2000 which places the country among the 15 poorest nations in the world. The poverty rate, measured as the share of the population subsisting on less than $1 per day, increased from 36 percent to 70 percent which in practical terms means the number of the poor has moved from 19 million in 1970 to 90 million today. "In 1965, when oil revenues per capita were about US$33, Per Capita GDP was US$245. In 2000, when oil revenues were US$325 Per Capita, the Per Capital GDP remained at the 1965 level. In other words, all the oil revenues did not seem to add to the standard of living at all. Worse, however, it could actually have contributed to a decline in the standard of living."

The objective of the 44-page report, according to the authors, was to demonstrate that corruption, weak governance, rent seeking and plunder are problems intrinsic to most countries that own mineral resources, especially oil. In the light of recent developments, I think the authors may have to review their report because they have only scratched the surface where the Nigerian oil asset is concerned. The rot is much deeper than they, or anybody, can ever imagine. But it is unacceptable.

POSTSCRIPT: The above column, titled “MT Abracadabra”, and published some nine years ago, highlighted the challenge of oil theft in our country which seems to have defied solutions.Yet it is instructive that as at the time I wrote the piece in September 2004, Nigeria was said to be losing about ten percent of its oil revenues to thieves. Today, the figure has jumped to between 20 and 30 percent. The essence of this recollection therefore is to ginger the authorities on the need to find solution to a problem that is fast getting out of hands, especially given recent revelations, including from Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, that Nigeria today loses about 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day to these same criminal gangs.

Unfortunately, rather than confront this challenge frontally, the relevant authorities are playing politics with it. Just recently, the Director General of NIMASA, Mr. Patrick Akpobolokemi said: “There are some big vessels under my custody belonging to organised piracy and crude oil thieves. Very soon, I will release all the big names in the syndicate. Once I do that, people should not come and say it is ethnic cleansing or that it is 2015.” While Nigerians wait for Akpobolokemi to make god his threat by revealing the names of the people helping themselves to our oil wealth, nobody is putting him to task on the issue that impinges not only on our economy but indeed, our national security. Any wonder then that these criminal gangs have been so emboldened as to now corner to themselves almost a quarter of our national oil production, on a daily basis? Yet, as I stated nine years ago, this is clearly unacceptable.

ThisDay

As APC Finally Berths

Pendulum By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, let me start by congratulating the leaders and members of the newly registered political party, All Progressives Congress (APC) of Nigeria, on their well-deserved victory. You will agree with me that it was never a smooth ride for them, and they were forced to fight like wounded lions, every step of the way, against all manner of forces that attempted to frustrate their efforts and derail their mission. Even at a time many of us wondered what was so special about a name, and an acronym, that at best stood for a popular pain-killer, the leaders of the merging political parties stuck adamantly to their guns and refused to be intimidated by the powers that control life and death in Abuja. It speaks volumes about the uncommon bravery of those the PDP, the ruling party at the centre, are poised to duel with sooner or later.

Now that APC has crossed the Rubicon, believe me, the big game is just about to start. Already the rhetoric is changing.  The tone and tempo of politics is set to be modified and returned to the good old interesting days of NRC versus SDP pre-1993. There is nothing that makes politics more exciting than having two giants in the ring. What we’ve had all along was a mismatch where a heavyweight champion was flexing its muscles in front of several flyweights whose combined strength did not even amount to a proper lightweight! Compared to PDP, the other parties in opposition were like pests, or minor irritants, that could easily be swatted and squashed! With this miraculous registration, the days of a lone King Kong punching the wind in the arena are over. The two major warriors can now stand shoulder to shoulder, eyeball to eyeball and square up to each other.

It would certainly be naïve of the PDP to underrate the potential of APC and the combination of General Muhammadu Buhari, now a Grand Admiral in contesting elections, and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a civilian General in his own right and a veteran of many political wars, marshalling the affairs of APC from the rear. Those two men, with their politically savvy and die-hard troops in tow, have what it takes to give the PDP apparatchik and foot soldiers a run for their money. What gives me the confidence is the assurance I’m getting from the inner caucus of APC that General Buhari and Asiwaju Tinubu have chosen to play backend roles this time around as kingmakers. This sacrifice on their part will certainly yield better fruits and bountiful harvests. It is bound to upturn the permutations of those who are hoping, willing and ready to use the perceived weaknesses of both great men against them if ever they present themselves as candidates. But with the decision to make the big sacrifice, they would be able to concentrate their attention, energy and resources at mobilising voters all over the country.  The APC can only stand to gain more converts and instant ovation as a result.

Those who want APC as replacement to PDP are of the opinion that by 2015, PDP would have spent a total of 16 years in power. It is their belief that in those years, Nigeria frittered away enough resources that could have brought true transformation to our nation because of the profligate nature of the PDP leaders. They argue that the time has come to try some other people and certainly a new and different political party. But the antagonists of APC consider that line of thought as preposterous and untenable. They wonder how a party that is likely to poach and field a candidate, and possibly a running-mate, from PDP can reasonably claim to be a new party. Their supporters are pleading with Nigerians to stick with the devil they know and not risk a new government that might make matters worse for the country. They are taunting APC as a coalition of frustrated and disgruntled politicians.  It is for APC to rise above such base mocking and focus solely on the gargantuan task ahead.  Nigerians want to see a Party that discusses issues and solutions not one that spews forth bitterness and hate.

The war of words is expected to escalate in the coming days and weeks as the gladiators warm up for the battle royale. It is not clear yet how the game would play itself out or how PDP would respond to this affront on its supremacy and erstwhile invincibility. For sure, President Jonathan would have to take some urgent and drastic steps to shore up what is regarded by many people as his lethargic style of governance. He may be forced to sack and sacrifice some of the controversial and or lacklustre members of his kitchen cabinet. He would have to jazz up his team with more accomplished and competent people. The anticipated shakeup is expected to be as powerful as an earthquake if and when the President decides that he has the liver to do it. He would have to close his eyes and ears to close family members and friends with vested interests in who should or should not come in. According to close insiders, this reshuffling is long overdue and the time has come for decisive action in order to steal the thunder from APC.

In the calculations, the President is said to be considering new realignments based on the current realities. The South West is aggrieved that it has not fared well in the present equation. No Yoruba man is known to occupy any of the top ten positions in a country where ethnic considerations and jingoism reign supreme. And the South West is too strategic and very enlightened to ignore because of its huge votes and educated voters. The region is very similar to the swing States of America.

I’ve no doubt in my mind that it would have been almost impossible for Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to win the last Presidential election had he not secured the tacit support of Bola Tinubu & Co. in the South West. The breakdown of talks and negotiations between the CPC and ACN was all Dr Jonathan needed to coast home to victory and the PDP flag-bearer wasted no time in relocating to Lagos to caress and cajole the South West power-brokers into supporting his dream. The rest is history.

But somehow, it seems the PDP has mismanaged the goodwill that gave it the victory it recorded in 2011 almost on a platter of gold. As I write this, PDP appears to be in utter disarray fighting within and without on all fronts. Not since the First Republic have we seen a party fighting such a war of attrition and self-immolation as if under a demonic spell. It appears that the leaders of the PDP and in particular the President and his cronies have not imbibed the lessons of history.

For all you care, and hate him or love him, Bola Tinubu is currently the most significant politician in Yorubaland today, while General OlusegunObasanjo is the biggest national figure from the South West. Truth is Tinubu is a one man riot squad who controls the biggest army of old and young members of the electorate in his region. He’s very intelligent and skilful. He understands how to meander his way in the forest of a thousand daemons. As tough and irreconcilable as President Obasanjo was in his days as civilian President, one man he could not cow was Tinubu. Lagos was starved of its statutory allocations yet Tinubu ran the State on auto-pilot. He even cruised at an altitude that would have many Captains green with envy.

Tinubu did not stop there. He deployed humongous energy and resources to wrestle the states taken by the PDP in the South West and took them back one after the other. Like the legendary Ijesa warrior, Ogedengbe Agbogungboro, Tinubu has carried his political exploits across borders and certainly beyond the South West with a most formidable ally in Edo State, Governor Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole and Kwara State has always been just a fingertip away from being captured by his Party. Unless something happens soon, Governor Rotimi Amaechi may be thrown willy-nilly, or inadvertently, to the APC free of charge by a rabidly vengeful PDP.

The President and his strategists would really have to wake up from the day-dream that the 2015 Presidential election would be easy to win. With the birth of APC, the forces against them are now bigger and stronger than ever. The PDP has enough enemies to contend with in the South South where the President comes from. The problem is not just about personal squabbles but the lack of visible development in the region despite the fact that they have the President, Petroleum Minister, Minister and Ministry of Niger Delta, Niger Delta Development Commission, Presidential Amnesty Programme, and so on. The physical appearance and infrastructure remain as rickety as they were three years ago and no miracle can improve them in the next two years.

The South East that gave total support to the President at the last elections may yield some ground to APC this time, especially with the influence of Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State. No one is sure if the full weight of APGA would be thrown behind President Jonathan now that Governor Peter Obi of Anambra State has reconciled with Chief Victor Umeh, Chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance.

The confusion in the polity extends to the North Central, especially in Kwara State, where the position of its kingpin Senator Bukola Saraki and his successor in office, Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed is not clear. The Governor is one of the pro-Amaechi supporters in the crisis rocking the Nigeria Governors Forum. Not too far away, Jos has been a notorious trouble spot with sporadic attacks and counter attacks in the area. The unrealistic insistence of Governor David Jang of Plateau State that he won the Nigeria Governors Forum election may also weaken the fortunes and chances of President Jonathan in this Zone.

Many parts of the North West are groaning under incessant terror attacks. Kano, Kaduna and Bauchi have been ravaged and savaged by terrorists. President Jonathan may have to rule out and write off that zone in his calculations of States to win in the next election, especially if the Opposition fields a Northerner as it is certain they will.

Let’s move across to North East. The situation here is even more volatile as the hotbed of radical terrorism. Borno, Adamawa and Yobe where the President has declared Emergency rule are too shaky for him to win. Out of the six geo-political zones of Nigeria, the President would be lucky to win two of them comfortably today. But even those two zones can’t match the votes that may pour in for a Northern candidate from the North West, North East and South West.

This is why the APC is in an upbeat mood. You can’t blame them; a house divided against itself like that of PDP is a wandering avenue for lizards and rodents. But APC should not be over-confident. What binds PDP together is very strong, access to power and money, a surfeit of it for that matter. When the time comes, you can expect PDP to open the taps of wealth at its disposal and wave the whiff of cash as usual to catch a largely impoverished populace. The APC would have to wage an unprecedented campaign using mass communication and the preponderance of information technology to counter the humongous financial arsenal that PDP will ultimately deploy. APC must ignite a passion in the youths and first time voters. It must appeal to women as never before, not just as voters but as candidates, even as high as Governorship level. If a country as small as Liberia could produce the first female President in Africa, APC should be more gender-sensitive and positive.

The candidates it chooses will determine the shape of things to come. I pray the two parties will engage in campaigns of issues and not that of calumny.

Nigerians and Nigeria will be better for it in the long run. May God bless our nation.

ThisDay

Now that APC Has Been Registered

Simon Kolawole

You needed to feel my joy, last Wednesday, when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced the registration of the All Progressives Congress (APC). For me, it was a dream come true. No, I’m not a member of the APC. In fact, I am not a member of any political party. I am one Nigerian with no party affiliation - and I know there are millions of us in this category. At election times, I evaluate candidates and decide who to support. Sure, I have sympathy for small parties, but I am not one to believe that one party is better than the other. Nigerian politicians are essentially the same. Swap the name of one party for the other and you get the same characters. That is why politicians easily defect from party to party without battling with any ideological contradictions.

Why was I so happy then? The birth of the APC, in my opinion, is another giant step in the democratisation project. Democracy is nothing without genuine competition, and one of the undue advantages the People Democratic Party (PDP) has been enjoying since 1999 is a weak opposition. We need a virile and viable opposition to make this democracy more exciting. The PDP goes into every general election knowing that it would win the majority of seats in the National Assembly and control most states, in addition to the small matter of producing the president. There is a popular view that the PDP has been winning through rigging, but even without rigging, can we sincerely say the opposition has ever been primed to dislodge the party?

Now that the APC has been registered, the real journey is just about to begin. Getting registered is the smallest part of the deal; strategising to take over power is the most difficult aspect. For those who are very enthusiastic that the APC is about to take over power, I would like to temper their expectations a bit: the party is still not big enough. With the fusion of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the emergent APC is still less than half of PDP. As things stand today, PDP has 23 governors, compared to APC’s 11. In the Senate, PDP has 75, more than twice APC’s 30. In the House of Representatives, there are 204 PDP members, compared to APC’s 135. In fact, the PDP is stronger now than it was in 1999 when it won only 21 states.

The good news, though, is that things can only get better. The first signal from the emergence of the APC is that the PDP now knows the opposition is no longer as fragmented as it used to be. The APC, which enjoys an amazing media advantage, has the whole world at its feet now. It can take the PDP to the cleaners with a superior manifesto. The PDP has the disadvantage of being the party in power, and therefore the party that has to answer all the questions about Nigeria’s underdevelopment. Nigerians need jobs, constant power supply, good transportation system, and a flourishing economy, among other things. The popular notion is that under the PDP since 1999, Nigeria has not journeyed very far into development. But the new party still has to market itself to Nigerians beyond the mantra of “anyone but PDP”.

For the APC, there are still internal issues to settle. The ACN stands for certain things that the ANPP and CPC are not known to stand for. The ACN preaches fiscal federalism and restructuring of Nigeria along the lines of “true federalism”. It is believed, rightly or wrongly, that the North stands to lose more if the so-called true federalism becomes a reality. Do the ANPP and CPC governors, who are now in the APC, believe in ACN’s concept of “true federalism” and “state police”? Is Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (who, in my opinion, is still the best opposition presidential material despite all his shortcomings) comfortable with “fiscal federalism”? These are ideological issues. The APC also have to deftly tackle the divisive issue of internal democracy in picking candidates for elections. They should go a step ahead of the PDP, else it would be a charade. In fact, they shouldn’t assume the PDP is dead and buried yet - they have to really mobilise support and aggressively build up membership.

Then there are questions about manifesto. How does the APC hope to generate the electricity we badly need? Will the APC privatise power or allocate more resources to the sector? Will tariffs go up or down? The downstream sector has stunted, perhaps because of issues surrounding deregulation, most notably the delicate matter of subsidy. Will the APC retain or remove subsidy? If it won’t remove subsidy, how does it hope to encourage investment in the downstream sector and unleash millions of jobs currently in bondage? As an enlightened young man, I won’t vote for any party because of bags of rice. I want ideas to battle against ideas so that I can make up my mind. There are millions of Nigerians like me. We may not be in the majority but we exist, nonetheless.

Meanwhile, I would like to warn the APC to beware of the group I call the Five Flying PDP Governors. They may have promised to defect to the APC ahead of the 2015 elections, but I don’t trust them. Their agenda may be different from APC’s. Of the Five Flying PDP Governors, only one delivered his state (Adamawa) to Jonathan in the 2011 presidential election. Buhari easily won in Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa and Niger States. This means, essentially, that these governors need Buhari more than Buhari needs them. I am not in a position to advise the APC on how to manage its politics (what do I know about politics, anyway?) but I don’t want to gloat and say “I told you so” when these PDP guys show their true colour in 2015. Nevertheless, neutrals like me are eagerly waiting for the real game to commence...

And Four Other Things...

DEPORTATION SAGA
The Lagos State government policy of relocating rehabilitated destitute persons to their states of origin is generating intense heat. Fourteen of them were recently sent back to Anambra State. Lagos said the rehabilitated persons had sought to be reunited with their families and the state had duly informed the Anambra State government without getting a conclusive response. The rationale behind the policy, if I’m correct, is to decongest Lagos of destitute persons and slums. However, the Nigerian federation is delicately poised and such a policy has more political implications than socio-economic benefits. I just hope things don’t get out of hand, with Anambra threatening to “retaliate”.

TOTAL BLACKOUT
One of my happiest seasons in Nigeria, economically speaking, is July to September. That is when I enjoy constant electricity and spend less on fuelling my generator. I’m able to direct my resources to better use. However, this year has been different: I have never spent so much on diesel. The rainy season bonanza is gone. I hardly get two hours of electricity per day now. If we can’t have power in August, when then can we have it? During dry season? I still believe the Federal Government made a big mistake allowing powerful forces to hound Professor Bart Nnaji out of the power ministry. But who cares?

TURAKI’S TIRADE
Minister of Special Duties and Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Dialogue and Peaceful Resolutions of Security Challenges in the North, Alhaji Kabiru Turaki, got irritated on Thursday when reporters asked him if his committee had made contact with Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. He blurted out: “We can’t go on and be speaking on the same issue everyday now. Much as I want to be speaking with press, you yourselves must be mature in the way you do things. I speak on something today, I speak on it tomorrow and next tomorrow...” Calm down, Turaki, it comes with the terrain. 

WHAT A BLESSING
Just when we thought the glory had departed from our athletics with the exit of the golden generation of Mary Onyali, Chioma Ajunwa, Falilat Ogunkoya and Gloria Alozie, a new queen was born. Her name is Blessing Okagbare. Last week, at the London anniversary games, Okagbare set a new African record of 10.79 seconds in the 100m race in a contest that featured current 100m Olympic gold medallist Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce. With the World Athletics Championship holding in Moscow, Russia, this month, Okagbare may finally wipe the tears off our eyes. For 13 years, we have not picked a single medal from the elite championship. Bless you, girl. 

Thisday

Terror Alert: US Shuts 21 Embassies

President Barrack Obama

By Festus Akanbi

Amid warnings over a fresh planned attack on Western targets, United States officials in Washington and diplomats in US postings around the world were on high alert at the weekend, leading to the closure of 22 embassies and travel alert to American citizens in the Arabian Peninsula.

The British Broadcasting Corporation reported Saturday that the United States is not the only one worried by the latest threat to peace. The United Kingdom, French, and German embassies in Yemen will also be shut Sunday and Monday.

The uneasiness was coming on the heels of warnings that fresh intelligence points to Yemen-based al-Qaida being on the final stages of planning an attack on Western targets.

The warning is specifically tied to Yemen.

According to a report by Associated Press, President Barack Obama’s counterterrorism adviser updated him on the potential al-Qaida threat before he left Saturday for a round of golf in Maryland to kick off his 52nd birthday celebration last weekend, officials said.

An attack last year on a US diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya, on September 11 killed the ambassador and three other Americans.

“There is a significant threat stream, and we’re reacting to it,” said Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He told ABC in an interview to be aired today that the threat was “more specific” than previous ones and the “intent is to attack Western, not just US interests.”

The warning said al-Qaida or its allies might target either US government or private American interests. The alert expires on August 31.

The New York Times reported Friday night that American officials said the US had intercepted electronic communications among senior operatives of al-Qaida.

The State Department said the potential for terrorism was particularly acute in the Middle East and North Africa, with a possible attack occurring on or coming from the Arabian Peninsula.

US officials pointed specifically to Yemen, the home of al-Qaida’s most dangerous offshoot and the network blamed for several notable terrorist plots on the United States.

“Current information suggests that al-Qaida and affiliated organisations continue to plan terrorist attacks both in the region and beyond, and that they may focus efforts to conduct attacks in the period between now and the end of August,” a department statement said.

Britain, Germany and France also announced their embassies in Yemen would be closed Sunday and Monday. British authorities said some embassy staff in Yemen had been withdrawn “due to security concerns.”

Canada’s Foreign Minister John Baird said on Friday there were no plans to close any Canadian missions in the region. But he did urge diplomats and Canadian travellers in the region to exercise added caution.

Interpol, meanwhile, issued a global security alert Saturday in connection with suspected al-Qaida involvement in several recent prison escapes including those in Iraq, Libya and Pakistan. The alert calls on Interpol’s 190 member countries to help determine whether these events are co-ordinated or linked. The Lyon, France-based international police agency said it issues such alerts fairly regularly.

The State Department urged U.S. travellers to take extra precautions overseas, citing potential dangers involved with public transportation systems and other prime sites for tourists. It noted that previous terrorist attacks have centred on subway and rail networks as well as airplanes and boats.

The alert was posted a day after the U.S. announced it would shut many diplomatic facilities Sunday.

Spokeswoman Marie Harf said some missions may stay closed for longer than a day.

Sunday is a business day in Muslim countries, and the diplomatic offices affected stretch from Mauritania in northwest Africa to Afghanistan.

Although the warning coincided with “Al-Quds Day,” the last Friday of the Islamic month of Ramadan when people in Iran and some Arab countries express their solidarity with the Palestinians and their opposition to Israel, U.S. officials played down any connection.

They said the threat wasn’t directed toward a specific U.S. diplomatic facility.

The concern by American officials over the Yemen-based al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula is not new, given the terror branch’s gains in territory and reach during Yemen’s prolonged Arab Spring-related instability.

The group made significant territorial gains last year, capturing towns and cities in the south amid a power struggle in the capital that ended with the resignation of Yemen’s long-time leader, Ali Abdullah Saleh. A U.S.-aided counteroffensive by the government has since pushed the militants back.

Yemen’s current president, Abdo Rabby Mansour Hadi, met with Obama at the White House on Thursday, where both leaders cited strong counterterrorism co-operation.

Earlier this week, Yemen’s military reported a U.S. drone strike killed six alleged al-Qaida militants in the group’s southern strongholds.

ThisDay

APC Registration: PDP Rethinks 2015 Permutation

The Northern governors meeting with  former Vice President, Dr Alex Ekwueme

.

•  Banks on S'South, S'East, N'Central • Kwankwaso, Nyako, Wamakko meet Ekwueme

By Chuks Okocha

The registration of All Progressives Congress may have altered the political calculation of the Peoples Democratic Party ahead of the 2015 presidential election, forcing the ruling party and the Presidency to rethink their strategy and chances.

The Independent National Electoral Commission announced on Wednesday that it had registered APC as a political party following its fulfilment of the statutory requirements.

THISDAY gathers that as a direct consequence of APC’s registration, PDP is re-evaluating its chances within the zones and considering new plans to tackle emerging challenges in its strongholds and weak spots.

Also as part of arrangements towards the 2015 election, the governors of Kano, Sokoto, Jigawa, and Adamawa states met with former Vice President Alex Ekwueme in Abuja.

According to a source who spoke with THISDAY, the re-evaluations by PDP became necessary in view of the “one leg in, one leg out” posture of some PDP governors, especially, from the North-west and North-east since the coming of APC. The source, a chieftain in PDP who preferred anonymity because he was not authorised to speak on the issue, said both the Presidency and the ruling party were banking on the South-south, South-east, and North central for victory in 2015.

Other sources within PDP and the Presidency said that with the look of things, the stronghold of APC would likely be the South-west states of Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti and Oyo, while Ondo State may likely back the second term aspiration of President Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 general election. They said by their calculation, PDP would at least score the mandatory 25 percent of votes in the South-west states and get more than 60 percent of votes in Ondo State.

In the same vein, the sources maintained, PDP would be at home in all the South-south states, including Edo State. This is based on the relationship between Edo State Governor Adams Oshiomhole and Jonathan.

THISDAY learnt that a cordial relationship between the president and the Edo State governor accounted for Oshiomhole’s victory at the last governorship election in the state. There will be no governorship election in Edo State in 2015 – the state will go to the polls to elect a new governor in 2016.

The permutations within PDP and the Presidency include a belief that the party would win in Akwa Ibom, Delta, Cross River, Bayelsa, Edo, and Rivers states with more than 80 percent of the votes cast in each of the states. They also believe the party will coast home in all the South-east states of Enugu, Abia, Imo, Anambra, and Ebonyi.

A source in the Presidency said, “We will carry the day in Anambra and Imo states, despite the fact that it is under the governorship control of APGA. Majority of the voting electorate are in the PDP. The party in Anambra has a majority in the House of Assembly and two out of three senators are members of the PDP. The state governor, Peter Obi, cannot conduct the local government election in the state because of the fear that the PDP will win all the seats.

“Apart from this, Governor Peter Obi is very sympathetic to the PDP. He is a member of the PDP at night and also a member of the President Jonathan economic team. So the state is for the PDP anytime.

“The party is in perfect control in the states of Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia and even Imo. We are aware that Rochas Okorocha became governor because of the crisis in the state, where some members of the PDP worked for his governorship.  The Imo State governor is playing a game. He wants to contest as a presidential candidate. As we talk, his party is in crisis of leadership between Peter Obi, who is seen as a PDP sympathiser, and Governor Okorocha. All these are to the advantage of the PDP both in the governorship and the presidential election.”

THISDAY gathered that if the Anambra State PDP stakeholders fail to agree among themselves on who would be the party’s governorship candidate in the November 16 governorship election in the state, the party and the Presidency may join forces with Obi’s APGA to win the state and later the governor would defect to PDP. The Anambra governorship election is seen as an important test case for PDP ahead of the 2015 presidential campaign.

The source said the North-west was where PDP expected to encounter some problems, but not to the extent that the ruling party will not get the minimum 25 of votes in each of the states.

“PDP will get more than 30 percent in Jigawa State, if Sule Lamido defects to the APC, but if he remains in the party, the state remains a PDP state. The same will happen in Kaduna State. The vice president, Namadi Sambo, will deliver his state for the PDP and President Jonathan.

“We may encounter some problems in Adamawa and Taraba, but other states like Bauchi, Gombe, Borno and Yobe will vote the PDP, or at least, the party will get more than 50 percent,” the source said.

PDP is also expected to win easily in the North-central states of Benue, Plateau, Kogi, and Kwara, according to the source. Its only problem in the zone would be in Niger and Nasarawa states.  Nasarawa State is under the control of Congress for Progressive Change, but the majority of the state House of Assembly members are from PDP.

“Like Jigawa State, if the Niger State governor, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, stays in PDP, the state will vote for the PDP, but if he dumps the PDP and joins the APC, PDP will get more than 30 percent in the state.  The governors of Kwara, Kogi, and Plateau states will ensure that PDP carries the day,” the source said, concluding that by and large, PDP will still carry the day, but “all these plans depend on President Jonathan contesting for a second term.”

Meanwhile, as part of their consultation with prominent elders and political leaders across the country, the governors of Kano, Sokoto, Jigawa, and Adamawa states, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Aliyu Wamakko, Sule Lamido, and Murtala Nyako, respectively, Saturday met with Ekwueme at his Abuja residence.

The governor of Niger State was absent because he was said to have travelled to Mecca for the lesser hajj.

THISDAY learnt that the four governors first met to harmonise their position before the meeting with Ekwueme.

The meeting with the former vice president followed hard on the heels of similar meetings between the five governors and former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former military leaders Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar, former President Shehu shagari, and Jonathan. The five governors were also scheduled to meet former military Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon Saturday. They were similarly expected to meet the former Minister of Defence, General Theophilus Danjuma.

The outcome of the meeting with Ekwueme was not immediately known, but it was gathered that the parley was in connection with the crisis in PDP and the alleged marginalisation of some of the governors in the scheme of things within the party.

THISDAY also gathered that the governors discussed the crisis in Rivers State and other issues affecting the country.
Ekwueme’s response was not known.

A larger meeting of the PDP governors with Jonathan is scheduled for August 12.

ThisDay