Buhari and the future of our country

 BY SABELLA ABIDDE 

As bleak and grim and uncertain as Nigeria is, there is a glimmer of hope in the horizon. There is hope because, increasingly Nigerians are getting fed up with the fetidities and cracks that have come to characterise the economic and political space — and with the hopelessness that the country is fast becoming.  More than ever, a sizeable number of Nigerians are yearning for a revolution.

And by revolution, I do not necessarily mean the Jerry Rawlings “housecleaning exercise” that began in 1979, or the type that occurred in Russia in 1917 or the French Revolution of 1789. I was thinking of a peaceful revolution – the type that will peacefully bring about a significant improvement in the economic, political, social and cultural landscape of our country i.e. the 1974 Carnation Revolution in Portugal; the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines; the 1989 Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia; or the 2004-2005 Orange Revolution in Ukraine.

However, whether peaceful or bloody, many Nigerians do not care. They simply want a change. They want a discontinuity of what’s been happening since October 1, 1960. They want food. They want uncontaminated water. They want a clean and sanitary environment. They want easy access to quality education and health care services. They want full and gainful employment. They want a secure society free of unnecessary danger and violence. They want the rule of law. In essence, they want a country where they and their children can prosper, and aspire to a meaningful life – and to bequeath these and more to future generations.

We have men and women who can grow this country. We have great minds that are capable of building and rebuilding our institutions and infrastructure. However, as our recent history has shown, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and his proxy, Sani Abacha, were never the right men for the job.  And Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo was not any better. As for Mr. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, well, he was never ready for the job – much the same way President Goodluck Jonathan is unready and incapable.

But when you think of and take Gen. Muhammadu Buhari into consideration, you cannot – and in fact, no reasonable and rational person will think of him as unready, incapable and unqualified the way one thinks of the current office holder. Richard E. Neustadt once said,  “The presidency is not a place for amateurs. The sort of expertise can hardly be acquired without deep experience in political office. The presidency is a place for men of politics, but by no means is it a place for every politician” – especially those without political sagacity, first rate intellect, wisdom, and a very good understanding of human nature and global affairs.

I now segue. On August 11, 2013, The Sunday PUNCH reported that “despite the anti-Buhari lobby in the All Progressives Congress, the General would contest the primary.” Good! That the General would contest his party’s primary was not exactly a surprise to observers of Nigeria’s political scene.

The Sunday PUNCH went on to tell us that “the anti-Buhari lobby in the APC is made up of two groups. The first group consists of senior Northern politicians who want the General to bury his ambition in order for a younger northerner to contest the presidential primaries… The other group consists of members of the party who feel that the former Head of State is not popular in the South-East, South-South and some parts of North-Central.” What!

Advanced age is not a factor when it comes to winning elections and the ability to govern effectively. After all, all those who took Nigeria to the abyss were all younger men i.e. Jonathan, Yar’Adua, Obasanjo, Abacha and Babangida.  Also, to say that Buhari is not popular is bizarre. Free and fair elections are not a beauty or popularity contest. They are about vision and programmes and the ability to not only articulate those visions, but to translate those visions into reality.

And while it is true that Buhari lost against Obasanjo and Yar’Adua, no sensible person would consider those elections free and fair. Consider this: As popular as the great Fela Anikulapo-Kuti was, he did not win elections. And neither did the venerable Gani Fawehinmi. And as globally known as Wole Soyinka is, I doubt if he could ever win a Senate seat in his state of origin. So, to say that Buhari is not popular in some parts of the country is hogwash! Who do you want: Buhari or Jonathan? Growth or stagnation? Progress or ruin and perdition?

Muhammadu Buhari has “the power to persuade, the professional reputation and the public prestige” to put Nigeria back on the path to greatness.  Everyone – including the “senior Northern politicians” that the newspaper referred to in its report– must understand that 2015 will be the defining year for Nigeria: Do we want to mingle with and be respected by the great nations of the world, or do we prefer rolling in the gutter? Do we want the Nigerian masses to continue wallowing in want and misery, or do we desire a great society where everyone has equal chance at peace and prosperity? The choice is ours! The future of our country is at stake, here.

Do you remember what Mr. Osita Okechukwu said of Buhari? “If he could pull 12 million votes during the 2011 presidential election with a “small party like the CPC,” then he could do better under a bigger party in 2015.” Indeed! Buhari will contest the APC primary. But should he lose fair and square, he will support his party’s candidate. That he was a military officer does not mean he is not a team-player. He is today a democrat with a reputation for everything decent and noble about humanity.  Unlike the current President, his detractors and political opponents will have nothing to blackmail him with. Buhari has nothing to hide, he owes no one!

Now, let me say this: the problem with the “elders and elites” in the North, South, East and West is that they are scared — terrified that a President Muhammadu Buhari will put a stop to their stealing and wasteful ways. Many are frightened of the coming dawn. They are afraid of the process and institutional transformation that will take place.

Nigerians want change, real change; they want progress, real progress. They want a truly Federal Republic with enduring law and order and an abundance of hope and prosperity. As miserable and uncertain as Nigeria is, our collective hope and national destiny lie with transformative and visionary leaders.

Punch

2015: The Arithmetic of Bad Luck

By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde

The ongoing crisis in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is deepening by the day. I was among the sceptics that dismissed the crisis as one of those that the ruling party would weather. However, there are many indications that this one is proving to be different.

Comparison

We have seen the disenchanted founding fathers of the PDP leave the party or politics entirely, one after another. Few, like Audu Obgbe, its former chairman, joined other parties and remained there. However, many, like Atiku, Rimi, Na’abba, etc, returned to the witch-mother, quickly or eventually. The overall picture that we have of such decampments is that for reasons of power and wealth, PDP members can hardly survive outside the party as long as it continues to occupy the presidency.

In previous conflicts, it was easy for the party and the president to use the material resources at their disposal and the power invested in his position to buy disgruntled elements back or force them to return. More important than the two is the fact that since they are hardly popular, PDP politicians cannot stand on their own outside the party and survive in the harsh weather of opposition politics. This was highlighted by Senior Special Assistant (on Media) to the President said just a month ago when he said that the rebelling governors must eventually return to PDP because they cannot afford to abandon the winning party. Subsequent developments show that he may be wrong.

What makes this crisis different is a combination of many things. One, the new PDP faction is engineered by a good number of governors from states that cannot be ignored by the President in his election arithmetic. To lose seven will be substantial. They are outgoing, not in need of the party to give them a second chance, and from states that have substantial amount of votes. There are many first tenure governors belonging to their camp, claimed the rebelling governors, but who are advised to keep their heads low in view of the complications they may face now.

Never in the history of the PDP was it faced with a gang of seven governors. Atiku might have had many governors behind him but since he was central in the revolt against Obasanjo, persuading him and threatening the governors with EFCC was enough to close that chapter. And when he left the PDP and joined hands with the AD to form AC, he did not go with any governor behind him.

The situation outside the PDP has also contributed immensely. The formation of the APC has provided the rebelling governors with an alternative to join or align with in order to give the obstinate President a good run for his money. PDP no longer enjoys the monopoly of winning an election. It is not the winning party, as Okupe would like us to believe. Abandoning it is no longer a class suicide. Okupe himself has realised this and is tuning down his rhetoric of dismissing the tamarrud governors.

Also, the crises have hit the President when he is weakest especially with his breakup with the architect of his presidency, the former dictator president, Obasanjo. Essentially, the President has miscalculated that he could dispense with Obasanjo and get away with it, seeing, among other setbacks that the latter suffered recently, that he could not even get his daughter win a senatorial seat, that he could not install a speaker or Chairman of PDP Board of Trustees and, after all, he no longer enjoys an incumbent control over state resources as he used to do when he plotted the ascendency of the present President. Jonathan is misled by Mr. Fix and his position-happy assistants, forgetting that Mr. Fix too could not even fix his Edo constituency which he lost to ACN.

More than the Obasanjo factor, Jonathan is not assisted by his lack of popularity among Nigerians, arising mainly from his widely believed incompetence, which he did everything to prove right, willingly. If he had worked hard to earn the trust and support of Nigerians through good governance, he would have been in a position to pitch the masses against the tamarrud governors. Instead, his tenure has proved to be a disaster and as corrupt as any Third World leader could be.

Then the conflict between the President and the rebelling governors is of the insoluble genre: they are asking him to “forget” standing for another election in 2015 based on a promise he made in the run up to 2011. Here, carried by his power of incumbency, the President thought he could, as Obasanjo did, break the promise without attracting any harm. It is proving difficult. This time, the governors are not letting it go without a fierce fight. But few presidents can willingly yield to threats even in the face of American might or mass protest. The Presidency, especially to people like Jonathan, is a position of do or die.

On the other hand, the New PDP governors are equally stubborn, if not more than the President. Moreover, the conflict has been allowed to ossify so much so that it is impossible for them to back out. On their side are people like Atiku who are already warning them of the dangers of contemplation: “Do not make the mistake of contemplation, which I made in 2003. Once you do so, rest assured that the tiger of Jonathan will return to devour you mercilessly. Remain on cause.” Add to this advice the characteristic vengeance of Obasanjo that is adding oxygen to the fire in the background. With these voices and those fears, the governors could only become more dogged by the day.

We can go on and on in our comparison of past and present conflicts in the ruling PDP. Let us break that now and focus on the implication of the President’s position. Effectively, the crisis shuts the gates of 2015 before the President. The scenarios are obvious and they all point to a President in his decline and fall: Goodluck is faced with bad luck in all directions. Let us look the arithmetic.

Arithmetic

Starting from the APC governors, the President should not expect a support from their eleven states. For ethnic reasons, one may allow him the majority votes of Edo state. That takes away the support of eleven governors and the majority votes of ten states.

Then Jonathan is certain to lose the majority votes in six of the seven New PDP governors – that is granting him Rivers State who may decide to support him for ethnic reasons. This brings the number of states that the President may lose their majority votes to sixteen.

Then come the five states of Bauchi, Gombe, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi and Kaduna in which the President will also lose their majority votes though the governors are yet to abandon him. He lost them in 2011, some woefully. This brings the number of states against the President to a staggering figure of twenty-one.

Taraba state is uncertain, the votes being likely to be shared equally between the APC candidate and the President. That leaves the President with the majority of the votes of only Benue and Plateau States in the North for obvious reasons, plus, of course, the majority votes in the southeast, South-South and, possibly, non-APC states of Ondo and neighbouring Ekiti in the southwest. Even here, the states and zones are not big enough on the voters register to make any significant impact, with some having as low as 472,00 votes (Bayelsa) when compared to Lagos (6million) and Kano (5million) votes, both of which are not supporting the President.

I will come to another possibility where the opposition can win the overwhelming majority votes in all states of southwest without exception. But before then, let us see what the above arithmetic means in terms of voter-opportunity for the President – a complete bad luck: 22.9million against 45.7million or one-third against two thirds!

I have presented below the total number of voters in each state belonging to the President and the opposition APC. (I am afraid that the formats of my blog and Facebook page may not keep the table intact.)

Jonathan States
1Bayelsa472,389
2Ekiti 750,753
3Ebonyi876,249
4C/River1,018,550
5Enugu1,301,185
6Benue1,415,162
7Abia 1,481,191
8Ondo1,558,975
9Imo 1,611,715
10A/Ibom1,714,781
11Anambra1,758,220
12Delta 1,900,055
13Plateau1,983,453
14Rivers2,419,057
15Edo 1,412,225
16Taraba1,308,106
TOTAL =22,982,066

APC Candidate States
1Fct 886,323
2Kwara1,115,665
3Yobe 1,182,230
4Kogi 1,215,405
5Nasarawa1,224,206
6Gombe1,266,993
7Osun 1,293,967
8Kebbi1,603,468
9Adamawa1,714,860
10Niger1,721,478
11Zamfara1,746,024
12Bauchi1,835,562
13Jigawa1,852,698
14Sokoto2,065,508
15Oyo 2,577,490
16Borno2,730,368
17Katsina2,931,668
18Kaduna3,565,762
19Kano 5,135,415
20Lagos6,247,845
21Ogun1,869,326
TOTAL =45,782,261

Depending on who the APC fields as its presidential candidate, the President may not even get the votes of Ekiti and Ondo states. That makes his chances bleaker: 20.6million against 48million votes.

This picture is a complete bad luck for the President in two ways. If the opposition is able to join hands with the New PDP, pick a winning candidate, mobilise its voters and fight fiercely to protect the votes, then it is certain to defeat the President at the polls in 2015, hands down. There is simply no way the President can bridge the gap between 14 states that he would have and the 22, plus the FCT, against him. I cannot see how he can leap from a majority of N22million votes to position himself above the majority of 48 million.

Stepping Down

What may make the depiction even darker is the possibility that once the ship of the President starts sinking, the remaining governors may abandon it and he may not be sure of anything anymore. At that point, I have no doubt that the party will be wise enough to prevail on him to step down and stay as a lame duck for the rest of his tenure, defeated, deflated and disgraced by bad luck.

That is the path he has chosen and he has himself to blame for it. The nation, including this writer, rallied around him when he was fighting to be recognized as Acting President. After becoming the President, he blew the opportunity of becoming a statesman and, instead chose to become a gangster that is bent on installing his loyalists and members of his ethnic group in every position of influence. He swallowed the poison of greed alone. He will die alone.

Conclusion

The days ahead will definitely be interesting to watch. Will the President be able to weather the storm and turn the table against his opponents in the PDP to enable him clinch the ticket and face the APC and its allies in the next election? Will the opposition itself forget its regional differences and personal ambitions and oblige itself the indisputable winning candidate that will enable it give a devastating blow to the President in 2015? Will the PDP see the writing on the wall and ask the President to honourably step down from his 2015 ambition such that it can at least have the energy to stand up to the opposition and possibly defeat it at the polls? What are the possible cards that each side will use as we approach 2015?

Bamanga, the chairman of the old PDP faction, for example, is already threatening the use state institutions to sanction legislators who joined the New PDP. This is stupid. The PDP has set the precedence already that once a party is factionalized, its elected members can decamp to other parties. That judgement is returning to harm it severely. The law enforcement agents, the judiciary and INEC will also be calculating in their response to Bamanga’s threat: they have their self-interests to protect in a post Jonathan Nigeria. Once they calibrate that the position of the president is unpromising, they will be unwilling to harass anyone on his instigation.

Our assessment above is limited to the sight that today can afford us. Regardless of the how wide that band is, tomorrow could give us a different possibility altogether that may favour the President or it could further collaborate against him and corroborate the testimony of its immediate predecessor, thus relieving us of the calamity of having a president that is destructive, corrupt and incompetent.

Why Jonathan May Miss Second Term

By ANAYOCHUKWU AGBO
“To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And by opposing end them.”
– Shakespeare in Hamlet

Last week ended for President Goodluck Jonathan and his 2015 re-election ambition on a note of uncertainty as the war in his Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, went viral. Like Shakespeare’s Hamlet, it was a week he may have considered whether it was better to suffer “the slings and arrows of outrageous” politics “or to take up arms against a sea of troubles.” At first it looked as if the President would acquiesce but by last Thursday he appeared to have recovered enough to leave for three days official visit to Kenya. Like the Shakespearean stag, sources close to him say he cannot be frightened out of the race; rather he would fight his ‘enemies’ head-on, and either win, or go down fighting like a man.

The Kenya trip would offer Jonathan the window to consider, clearly, his best moves and options when the critical meeting of the feuding parties in PDP holds on Tuesday this week, say the Presidency sources. The meeting was to have held last week but the raging angst over the ill-fated August 31 special national convention in Abuja made the postponement imperative as the aggrieved splinter group was in no mood for a meeting. Efforts to stall the fatal fission in the party through a quick reconciliation of the warring factions failed due to the conflicting signals from the different camps.

Party insiders said the walkout of the splinter group came as a shock. Some were further shocked that a plot of such magnitude could be planned and executed without Jonathan getting a whiff of it even with all the intelligence agencies at his disposal. As that initial shock subsided last week, the utterances of the Jonathan group became more militant and less reconciliatory. The initial reaction by Tony Anenih, chairman of the party’s Board of Trustees, BoT, was sober and diplomatic. After the first scheduled meeting failed, he stated: “I believe some of them have genuine grievances, but I have hope that once the grievances are addressed they will come back. I am happy that the PDP has an internal mechanism for effective conflict resolution, and, at the end of the day, the problems will be addressed and the PDP will come out of the crisis stronger.”

Coming from Anenih, known as ‘Mr. Fix It’, for his practical and unemotional approach to politics, this suggested a significant departure from what had become an in-house brawling standard of the ruling party and an olive branch. A member of one of the splinter groups, however, said that knowing the antecedents of the octogenarian, they suspected he was up to some tricks and so did not take his reaction on face value.

The next action of the New PDP, as members call themselves, was to approach a federal high court in Lagos to declare Tukur’s special convention null and void. They further asked the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, not to recognise Bamanga Tukur as chairman of the party. The Jonathan camp was further alarmed when it dawned on them that they had unwittingly provided their opponents with the ideal conditions for a true fractionalisation of the party as provided by the Electoral Act. The division occurred during a party convention as a protest against their exclusion from the convention. The party denied those said to be ‘genuine’ delegates from Adamawa State accreditation. They announced that delegates from Anambra and Adamawa would not vote, except statutory delegates. Even at that, the statutory delegates were not accredited, making a protest legitimate. Anambra delegates exchanged blows to register their dissatisfaction with the party, announcing the Tony Nwoye faction as the one acceptable to the party. Officially, INEC recognised the chairman of the Andy Ubah faction as the authentic faction.

To cap what was clearly seen as the height of impunity, the Electoral Committee screened out some candidates which paved the way for their preferred candidates to emerge unopposed. The splinter group was particularly angered by the deliberate exclusion of Sam Sam Jaja, former deputy national chairman of the party, who along with 17 others were sacked by INEC because the primary contest that produced them was not consistent with the Electoral Act. Jaja was a victim of the conflict between Governor Chibuike Amaechi of Rivers State and the Presidency. He was to slug it out with Uche Secondus, a former national organising secretary and former Rivers State chairman during the Peter Odili regime, who was the party’s preferred candidate.

The position of the deputy national chairman was seen as too strategic to leave in the hands of Jaja, an Amaechi associate. With the persistent demand of some governors that one of the conditions for peace must include the removal of Tukur, the thinking is that in the event that the President is forced to trade off Tukur, the vice chairman who will step in as acting chairman should not be Jaja, who is not known to be a friend of the President’s camp. This is because he may then be saddled with the task of presiding over the presidential primary of the party. That will run against the scheme spearheaded by Anenih for an automatic ticket for Jonathan. This has caused a stir, with northern aspirants, including Atiku Abubakar, arguing that the party’s constitution does not provide for automatic ticket.

Babangida Aliyu, governor of Niger State, revealed that they had made efforts to save the party but the Presidency made it impossible. He said that the President was informed that if the Adamawa delegates were not allowed to enter the convention venue, “it could lead to a problem.” He said he and some other governors went to the state box to again inform Jonathan that the delegates were still locked out. After another one hour, it then dawned on them that it was official and they decided to walk out.

Last Thursday, the mudslinging worsened when Rivers State government alleged a plot to assassinate Governor Chibuike Amaechi. In a statement signed by Ibim Semenitari, commissioner of information, the government revealed that Joseph Mbu, the state commissioner of police, is acting in a manner that compromises the governor’s security. He redeployed Amaechi’s escort commander who could not comply with an alleged directive to “furnish (the CP) with prior information of the movement of the Governor.” After redeploying the escort commander, Mbu also requested the camp commandant of Government House, Port Harcourt, to give him prior briefing of the Governor’s daily movement. “This sudden interest of Mbu regarding the daily movement of Governor Amaechi cannot be borne out of love. If his intentions were noble and above board, CP Mbu has Governor Amaechi’s telephone number and could have reached him directly to make the request of prior briefing of his movements. Alternatively, he could have written officially to the Secretary to State Government to make the same request,” argued the Rivers State government.

Perhaps in order to not be tagged a troublemaker, Amaechi stayed away from the special convention in Abuja, because he had earlier been suspended from the party. However, Rivers State PDP executive led by Felix Obuah later blamed Amaechi for the split at the convention.

Obuah’s camp and others sympathetic to the course of Jonathan are not looking inwards to realise that most of the actions taken by the Jonathan camp have reduced what was initially seen as a probability to an increasingly difficult possibility. As former president, Olusegun Obasanjo, who was drafted into the peace initiative was busy troubleshooting, some associates of Jonathan concluded that the crisis had gone beyond the point of reconciliation and that it was better to fight to the finish. “It dawned on us that some people were scheming to ease off Jonathan exercising his right to re-election in 2015; to them, that is reconciliation. That is clearly unacceptable to us,” a member of Jonathan’s inner circle confided in TELL last week. These hawks see Obasanjo’s efforts as the equivalent of mercy killing. To them, it may have provided the wily general, known for cold revenge of ills done to him, an opportunity to take his pound of flesh on Jonathan. “He looks like the innocent flower now but is more of the serpent under it; it might hurt Jonathan badly to trust Obasanjo,” said one of his aides last week.

Eighty-six-year-old Ijaw strong man, Edwin Clark, appears to belong to this school, as instead of talking peace or being circumspect like Anenih, he went for Obasanjo’s jugular, accusing him of fuelling the feud in PDP. “He was the one who said that he wanted Lamido the governor of Jigawa State and Rotimi Amaechi the governor of Rivers State to contest the 2015 election as presidential candidates…sometime ago, he said in Switzerland that this administration does not have the courage to eradicate corruption in the country,” Clark pointed out.

An enraged Clark further accused the former president who single-handedly appointed Jonathan as the presidential running mate to the late Umar Yar’Adua in 2007 of being the cause of the crisis of PDP in the South-west. Clark argued that it was too late for Obasanjo to become a peace envoy. “All I am saying is that for him creating these problems and belatedly jumping into the bandwagon of reconciliation without being invited by the party because new zonal congress has to be held in the (South)-west, and because he will like to have his favoured candidate to win the gubernatorial election in Anambra State, and also because he has now seen that the party has not fallen apart after his resignation from the chairmanship of the party’s Board of Trustees, is improper.”

Clark found affinity in Tukur. The 78-year-old chairman went on the full offensive and called the bluff of the splinter group. He declared them ‘imposters’ and threatened to declare the seats of the National Assembly members in the splinter group empty. “We shall ensure that any person who is not duly elected into any leadership position in our great party and has not been duly assigned any role but goes ahead to arrogate such to himself will be made to face the full wrath of the law. Similarly, all persons elected on the platform of our great party at all levels who identify with these enemies of the oneness and greatness of our party shall have their seats declared vacant as required by law. We shall leave no stone unturned to ensure that such persons and indeed any other individual who attempts to subvert the leadership of the PDP shall reap in full the consequences of such actions.”

Likewise, The Media Network for Transformation, an NGO led by Ebelo Goodluck which supports Jonathan, blamed Obasanjo for the impasse. “We call on former President Olusegun Obasanjo to call his associates to order. Apart from being their sponsor, the rebel governors draw their inspiration from him. Apart from numerous clandestine meetings, President Obasanjo started his public romance with the rebel flank when he became unavoidably absent at this year’s Democracy Day celebration in Abuja, but vigorously participated in the day’s activities in Dutse, Jigawa State. That was followed by the rebel governors’ visit to his Abeokuta home. Then came last Saturday, and Chief Obasanjo’s mischief literarily flew over the Eagle Square venue of the Special Convention. Unavoidably absent, again, he was to turn up the next day in Church, at the Presidential Villa. Made a few platitudinous remarks on the need for a peaceful resolution of the crisis and thereafter called a meeting. His meeting failed and will continue to fail.”

Abubakar Baraje, a former national secretary of the party, now the national chairman of the splinter PDP, said Tukur’s outburst confirmed their assessment of him. “With what he said, it shows that Tukur is unfit, incapable and totalitarian. The earlier they take him out, the better for Nigeria and PDP. As far as we are concerned, there is no person or thing like Bamanga Tukur again in PDP. By saying that they want to use the security agencies to deal with us, Tukur has also confirmed the level of impunity, lawlessness, recklessness and ignorance in PDP. With his declaration, it means the police have become puppets in the hands of his group. Let them come and deal with us; we are waiting for them. As far as we are concerned, the court has recognized us and directed that the status quo be maintained.”

Tukur’s leadership style, to some insiders, is believed to have pitched him against the governors, who hitherto called the shots in the party. Indeed, some Jonathan hawks are wondering if Tukur is an insider working for the North in their bid to deny Jonathan a second term. His persecution of other party stakeholders in Adamawa has reunited three former political foes – Abubakar, Nyako and Jubril Aminu – against him and Jonathan. TELL’s investigation showed Tukur cannot win Adamawa for Jonathan against the united force of these three politicians. That is if he survives the storm. Because the four conditions given for peace by the splinter group include the removal of Tukur as chairman of the national working committee, NWC; resolution of the stalemate in the Nigeria Governors Forum, NGF; and the Rivers State crisis. Being fully aware of this, according to insiders, Tukur appears set to fight a scorched battle. Aside from Adamawa, few serving governors in the North will have the confidence to canvass for vote for Jonathan in 2015. Many of those who supported him in 2010 feel disappointed that he has allowed his people to reduce his presidency to an Ijaw presidency, thereby missing the opportunity to unite the country. They also feel his performance is not eloquent enough.

Where do all these leave Jonathan? They leave his 2015 re-election bid in the lurch. Concerned stakeholders in PDP appear to feel that it was time he was eased out of the 2015 race if the party will retain the presidency in 2015. They feel the party is not only at a crossroads, it is perhaps at its lowest ebb since its formation. Something has to give and they appear to feel that has to be the President. Another group seen as national stakeholders, it was gathered, is also of the view that Jonathan could have handled the insecurity in the country more competently. They feel that the country needs a new president to save it from disintegration. Some foreign allies of the country also appear to be unhappy with how Jonathan has handled the Boko Haram insurgency, with what they described near casualness, until it spun out of control. The story is told of how one of Nigeria’s foreign allies on its own carried out intelligence on the insurgents and then the President, sent an envoy to Nigeria with an offer on how to end the insurgency. The visitor was said to have been shocked when he was referred to a female minister who was introduced as a ‘confidant’, and not a competent security professional, or even the defence minister. As a result, he politely returned to his country with whatever solution was in his briefcase.

Again, Nigerians are not happy that Jonathan is not ready to fight corruption, beyond using the anti-graft agencies as tools of political deals. Under his watch, the worst looting of the national treasury occurred in the subsidy scam. Some of the suspects are children of party officials and fundraisers and this has made justice for the country an uphill climb. Similarly, the worst case of crude oil theft in the history of Nigeria is ongoing in the Niger Delta under his watch without an effective solution. An estimated 400,000 barrels daily are being lost to theft and shut-ins due to crude oil theft. This is happening when Nigeria is spending a sizeable budget on an elastic amnesty programme, which was supposed to secure the oil production belt. It is also happening when some of the ex-militants are given mouth-watering pipeline protection contracts. All these have made some people feel that officials of government may be behind the massive oil theft currently said to be nearing 50 per cent of national earnings. This has impacted badly on the image of the ruling party, widely maligned as “PDP: share the money!”

So some of the questions of many critics are: how long can Jonathan hold on to the party? And if he wins in the bourgeoning crisis through the strong-arm tactics being canvassed by Tukur and Clark, how much of the party will be left? Will he be able to win the presidential election in 2015 on the platform of the rump of the PDP?

As at last week, the emerging political map of the country appeared gloomy for the ruling party and Jonathan. With seven out of the 23 states under its control forming the ‘New PDP’, the party’s electoral assets have shrunk to 16 states. And many of the 16 are said to be biding their time before they decamp. In the National Assembly, the voting pattern will no doubt change when both chambers resume from their annual vacation. Twenty-two senators have pledged allegiance to the splinter group in a chamber of 109 where opposition parties have 39. If the New PDP votes alongside the opposition in the passage of bills and motions, they will have a joint strength of at least 61 against old PDP’s 48. This will turn the ruling party into the new minority in the red chamber. In the House of Representatives, 57 members have pledged allegiance to the splinter group. This is in a House that has all along acted as an opposition even when the ruling party has a two-third majority, will constitute a greater nightmare for the Presidency.

In the arena, this also tilts the voting demography against PDP. With the most populous states out of its control, it would be difficult for PDP to win the presidential election in 2015. Lagos is under All Progressive Congress, APC; Kano and Rivers are under the New PDP. There is increasing doubt if Vice President Namadi Sambo can deliver Kaduna State. Though Katsina State under Ibrahim Shema is with Jonathan, it will be impossible for Jonathan to beat Muhammadu Buhari in the presidential election in his home state if he becomes the candidate of the APC. In Borno State, 15 state executives of the PDP have defected to the APC. In Taraba, a PDP faction led by Abudulmumuni Vaki, former state chairman, last week declared support for the New PDP. According to him, “It was unfair to deny Sam Sam Jaja opportunity to contest for the position he previously held.”

Of the 11 states in Jonathan’s home base – South-south and South-east – he is not sure of the votes in the four states of Edo, Rivers, Anambra and Imo. Edo and Imo are now APC. Rivers is New PDP, and as they move towards the November 16 governorship election, Anambra is torn between APGA, PDP and APC.

Faced with this grim scenario, how can the PDP be salvaged to win the 2015 election? Some party members strongly feel that Jonathan may see the writing on the wall and decline to run. Some also think that the party might advise him not to run to save the party from a possible defeat. Ben Nwabueze, Senior Advocate of Nigeria and leader of the Patriots, who led the group to visit Jonathan about three weeks ago, to urge for a national conference to discuss how the country’s peoples can live together in peace and harmony, has advised Jonathan not to run in 2015. He acknowledged the President’s constitutional right to a second term, but urged him to waive it and concentrate on implementing the Transformation Agenda and other constitutional reforms to sustain democracy.

The signs really weigh against sticking to the actualisation of an ambition. It is like a repeat of the scenario in 2010 when this magazine, in an editorial then, pleaded with President Jonathan to consider trading his ambition for the general good of the country. As it turned out, the President was not persuaded by the appeal [see box], but events that followed his election vindicated the stand of the magazine. Soon after he took office, again his aides started to campaign for 2015, thereby creating problems for him. The consequence, according to Ango Abdullahi, former vice chancellor of Ahmadu Bello University, ABU, Zaria, is that “virtually everything is collapsing under him.” Yet some of his associates see this as completely out of consideration. A presidential aide maintained most fervently last week that the President would run, come what may. Abu King Shuluwa, a founding member of PDP from Benue State, blamed the quartet of Obasanjo, Anenih, Clark and Tukur for taking advantage of Jonathan’s “political naivety to mislead him and pursue persona agenda.”

Last week, supporters of former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, started putting up billboards in Abuja in support of his 2015 presidential ambition. Abubakar’s media office has denied his having any connection with the billboards, one, which has the picture of the sponsor boldly embossed on it. He had walked out with the group at the convention and noted that the party lacked transparency and internal democracy, and that there were issues that had to be addressed. If Jonathan insists on running, it is inevitable that Abubakar will have to pursue his ambition under another party, may be PDM. However, the splinter group may likely hang on to PDP till the platform is considerably incapacitated.

Elsewhere, some other people feel that Nigeria should be aware of United States, US, doomsday prediction that Nigeria may break up in 2015. Despite the widespread condemnation of the prediction by the US State Department analysts, some critics still feel that the country should be carefully guided out of that possibility with the drums of political war currently gathering momentum. Last week, US Council on Foreign Relations sustained the previous prediction with its analysis of the split in PDP. According to them, it “highlights Nigeria’s North-South dichotomy; most of its members are northern and Muslims.” They noted, “PDP is not a political party in the western school because it has neither a distinctive political platform, nor ideology.”

However, one of the people who believe that there is hope for the country is David Mark, president of the Senate. He has therefore urged Nigerians to stop the drums of war: “The strength of Nigeria is in our unity, not in our division. Let us all work for the unity of this country rather than beating the drums of war.”

THE TELL MAGAZINE

OBASANJO: Farida Waziri was a disaster to Nigeria’s anti-corruption fight

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has described the appointment of Farida Waziri, the former Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, as a wrong step in Nigeria’s fight against corruption.

Mr. Obasanjo said this in an exclusive interview he granted Zero Tolerance, a magazine produced by the EFCC.

The former president, whose administration established Nigeria’s two main anti-corruption agencies, the EFCC and the ICPC, said he was aware that former Delta State Governor and convicted money launderer, James Ibori, played a major role in Mrs. Waziri’s appointment.

“I know that the woman they brought in to replace Ribadu (Farida Waziri) was not the right person for that job, because I understood that one of those who head-hunted her was James Ibori.”

“If James Ibori, who is now in a U.K. prison for fraud, head-hunt somebody who will fight corruption in Nigeria, then you can understand what happened,” he added.

When questioned further on his stance on the former anti-graft chief, Mr. Obasanjo said Mrs. Waziri was not adequately qualified to head the EFCC.

“Well, go and look at her track record,” he said. “Go and look at the condition or the qualification; go and look at the type of interaction that anybody holding that job will have with a similar organisation elsewhere; did Waziri have that type.”

“What connection did she have with FBI, what relationship did she have with Metropolitan Police in London. It’s not a picnic,” he added.

Ms. Waziri, a retired senior police officer, was appointed head of the EFCC in 2008 after the controversial exit of the pioneer chairman of the commission, Nuhu Ribadu, also a former police officer.

Her tenure, right from the beginning, was dogged by various controversies including her alleged romance with indicted state governors like James Ibori of Delta, Bukola Saraki of Kwara, and George Akume of Benue.

There were also several investigations including by the now rested NEXT Newspapers that revealed how the EFCC, under Ms. Waziri, wrote controversial letters clearing some of the former governors of corruption charges.

Even the international community was so suspicious of the former EFCC boss that former American Ambassador to Nigeria, Robin Sanders, threatened to walk out of a meeting with Nigeria’s then Foreign Affairs Minister, Ojo Madueke, if Mrs. Waziri was allowed to be at the meeting.

The former EFCC boss was eventually walked out of the meeting.

“I was investigated”

While making further comments on the EFCC, Mr. Obasanjo also said that in order to clear himself of corruption, he asked the commission, then under Mr. Ribadu, to investigate him.

I was investigated. I told EFCC to investigate me. I told EFCC to carry out clinical investigation and they did,” he said.

“They also did same with all people on my farm. One of them was telling me the other day how Lamorde called him three times and took statements from him. The EFCC even made sure they did not submit that report to me; they waited until I left and updated their report after going round the world and saying look this is the report.

“Nobody should be below board in the fight against corruption,” he added.

Commends Ribadu

Mr. Obasanjo also commended Mr. Ribadu, saying his performance as EFCC boss helped reduce corruption in Nigeria and improve her rating by Transparency International.

“When I was there, the EFCC and ICPC worked tirelessly and we moved this country from the corruption perception index being number 2 from the lowest to being number 45 from the lowest,” he said.

He queried the manner Mr. Ribadu was removed from office saying he cautioned late President Umaru Yar’Adua against the removal.

Mr. Obasanjo said if given the opportunity again, “I will reappoint Mallam Ribadu and I will not dismiss him the way he was dismissed from the EFCC.”

He, however, accused the former anti-graft boss and former presidential candidate of hobnobbing “with people he had declared as corrupt.”

PREMIUM TIMES

Senators begin lobby for Mark’s seat

BY JOHNBOSCO AGBAKWURU, Abuja, IKECHUKWU NNOCHIRI & DAPO AKINREFON
CRISIS rocking the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, seems to be taking a different dimension following the allegation that some Senators who have identified with the Alhaji Kawu Baraje have commenced consultations and lobby to unseat the Senate president, David Mark.

Also to go with the senate president if the plot succeeds when Senate reconvenes after the vacation on September 17, 2013 was the Deputy Senate President, Chief Ike Ekweremadu who was accused of working with the Tukur faction and had tried to ensure that senators from the South East remained with the faction.

Meantime, the PDP Senators may have emergency session on Tuesday to deliberate on the crisis in the party and take a position.

Informed sources told Saturday Vanguard that Senators who have identified with the new PDP who are said to be the arrowheads of the plot to remove all Tukur’s loyalists in the National Assembly may not have problems with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Aminu Tambuwal, the Deputy Speaker, Emeka Ihedioha may be affected if he refuses to identify with the Alhaji Kawu Baraje-led faction.

David Mark

Saturday Vanguard investigations revealed that about three Senators from the North Central zone have embarked on intensive lobby to take over Senate President’s position in the event the Baraje-led faction of the PDP decides to move against him for not recognizing the new factional National Chairman of the party.

According to the investigation, the three Senators had occupied sensitive positions in their states, in PDP and in union activities and are highly reckoned with in the upper legislative chambers.

Already about 30 senators are said to have backed the Baraje-led faction while a good number of members of the House of Representatives have also expressed their support and loyalty to the new PDP factional helmsman.

A source privy to the alleged plot told Saturday Vanguard that if Mark and his principal officers elected on the platform of PDP did not recognize Baraje-led group, there would be alliance of the members of the nPDP with the opposition members of the senate to effect the change.

A senator who is in the Baraje-led faction that spoke to Saturday Vanguard on condition of anonymity said that the senate would be meeting on Tuesday to take decision on the threat made by Alhaji Bamanga Tukur to declare vacant seats of senators opposed to him.

The senator who said that they had been advised not to join issues with Alhaji Tukur while reacting to the threat said, “the senators said that they won’t say anything until they meet. Let him (Tukur) do it now, why is he saying it, if he has the power he should do it.

“Bamanga Tukur is irrelevant right now to be very honest with you. What he is saying doesn’t mean anything. The country has moved beyond him, the issues are beyond Bamanga, he is totally irrelevant.

“The only thing that he has done is just to pour fuel on a raging fire it does not affect anything except to make the flame burn brighter, but when the senate group meets, they will take a decision. We are not in his faction any way, he should read the constitution. I know they (senate) will be meeting on Tuesday.”

Attempts made to confirm the meeting of the PDP senators from the Senate Committee Chairman on Media and Public Affairs, Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe could not yield any result as his mobile phone was switched off while the text message sent to him was not replied as at press time.

However, a Chieftain and convener of the nPDP Stakeholders Forum, Ikenga Imo Ugochinyere told Vanguard that “The first victim of intra-party squabble will be David Mark because he has been sitting on the fence and hobnobbing with Bamanga Tukur at night.

“You can’t be hiding for ever, if he does not recognize Baraje, he will lose his position. In the new PDP, we have confirmed senators that have pledged loyalty to Baraje. With the support of the APC (All Progressives Congress) Senators, we will form the majority to impeach Mark.”

Ikenga Ugochinyere further said that the Senate President and his Deputy, Ike Ekweremadu would be removed the same time, if Ekweremadu refuses to pledge loyalty to the Baraje-led faction adding, “in the new PDP, there is discipline. But I can assure you that there are many PDP Senators that want to be Senate President.”

He, however, said that despite the lobby for Senate President Position, “We have respect for Mark, but he has to be careful if not, the respect will be withdrawn.”

He said that the nPDP has no problem with the Speaker of House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal but pointing out that “if the Deputy Speaker Hon. Emeka Ihedioha does not support Baraje he will go.”

Ugochinyere said that what the senate needed to effect a change was about 56 senators and that with 30 of them that had expressed their support for Baraje, it was not going to be difficult to get the support of senators elected on the platform of opposition political parties.

On Tukur, he said, “Tukur is already blocking the chances of resolving this matter, this declaration of war is basically a smokescreen to hang on to office because he wants to draw a war, he is scared of peace negotiation which the outcome will be the termination of his deplored unlawful regime and again a fresh unity convention that will create enabling environment.

“So he will prefer to sink the party  to allow peace to prevail but yesterday’s comment (threat to declare vacant seats of senators opposed to him), I must tell you my brother is one of the things I keep saying that shows that Tukur is not in tune with what is on the ground.

“If Tukur is intelligent, he would have read the provisions of the 1999 constitution before boasting that he would declare any body’s seat vacant, under section 68 (1) of the 1999 Constitution as amended, the constitution stipulated grounds under which someone’s seat should be declared vacant,” he stated.

Tukur’s faction moves to restrain Atiku, Baraje, others

The internal crisis currently tearing the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, apart, worsened yesterday, as a faction of the party loyal to its embattled chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, applied for a restraining order against the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and chairman of the “New PDP”, Kawu Baraje.

In an ex-parte application they filed before the Abuja Division of the Federal High Court yesterday, the plaintiffs, urged the court to also restrain the national secretary of the “New PDP”, Prince Olagunsoye Onyinola and its deputy national chairman, Dr Sam Jaja, from parading themselves as national executives of the PDP.

Equally joined as a respondent in the application which was moved before Justice E. Chukwu, yesterday, was the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.

Nevertheless, the judge refused to grant the ex-parte application yesterday, even as he directed counsel to the plaintiffs, Chief Tochukwu Onwugbufor, SAN, to go back and put all the respondents on notice, saying they should be served the court processes via substituted means.

Before adjourning till September 12 to hear the motion on notice, Justice Chukwu, ordered that parties should maintain status quo ante bellum pending the determination of the suit.

According to the Judge, “Although I am not afraid of granting an ex-parte application especially when it is obvious of causing anarchy, however, I owe a duty to maintain a balance. In the instant matter, what I want to do is order that the respondents are put on notice.”

It will be recalled that the Tukur led faction of the party had earlier prayed the same high court to hand Baraje, Onyinola and Jaja, one year jail term each, over their complicity in alleged criminal contempt of a subsisting court order.

Placing reliance on Order 35 of the Federal High Court Rules 2009, the party, insisted that the three respondents deserved to be committed to prison for allegedly violating a judgment of the high court delivered on January 11, 2013.

The said judgment had nullified Oyinlola’s candidacy as a nominee of the South-west zonal chapter of the PDP.

Consequently, the court ,  declared Oyinlola’s subsequent election to the office of national secretary at the national convention of the party held in March last year, as invalid, null and void by reason of another court order which nullified the South-west zonal congress from which Oyinlola emerged.

We cannot afford a Nigerian Spring—Bode George

FORMER Deputy National Chairman, South, of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, Chief Olabode George has advised the warring parties in the PDP to resolve the lingering crisis within the PDP in the interest of the country saying “we cannot afford a Nigeria Spring”.

Addressing party leaders, in Lagos yesterday, the party chieftain, who appealed for calm among the warring factions, said the elders of the party are in the process of resolving PDP crisis.

George also admonished the party in Lagos state to pass a vote of confidence on President Goodluck Jonathan and endorse the party’s mini convention held recently in Abuja.

He said “I want to request here and now that our leaders should pass an emphatic vote of confidence on President Goodluck Jonathan who is the national leader of our party and the symbol of our nation’s unity and great possibilities. Equally, I am requesting that our leaders should also endorse the last mini convention of 2013 as the best that our party has ever had in the history of our great party.”

The party chieftain said resolving the crisis would be the interest of the party.

He said : “let us move away from tension and acrimony. Let us disagree with tempered and peaceful resolve. Let us debate every contentious issue with maturity, with discipline, with friendship and patriotic idealism. And most importantly, even  as we disagree and patch up our differences, as we tussle and shout in genuine debate, we must in the end be united in one solid reality that the government at the centre is a product of all our collective efforts. The government at the centre belongs to us all as PDP members and as citizens of this nation”.

In addition, he said, “let us support and strengthen our party and our government, that is the way of survival. Hat is the way of progress and it shall be well with Nigeria”

Also, the Lagos state chapter of the PDP,  threw its weight behind the Alhaji Bamanga Tukur- led  party.

Vanguard

For once, PDP, old and new, in battle for survival

It was a revolt by a section of the hierarchy of the ruling political party with the hallmarks of a palace coup in a military regime spiced with slight modifications. The element of surprise quite all right, but no early morning broadcast nor secrecy.

When the zero hour came, it was in the glare of the public, comprising delegated members from all branches in Nigeria attending a supposed special national convention. How special indeed, so special to deflate the erstwhile seeming invincibility of those, in the leadership, who, all along had been within and outside the rules, calling the shots.

That was the shock that rocked the People’s Democratic Party, perhaps, to eventually fast-forward the regularly predicted parting of ways for the political incompatibles. It is two years to 2015 and the row over Goodluck Jonathan’s constitutional right to contest for second term is the bone of contention. As they go, at least, in Nigerian political history, civil wars within political parties are not necessarily strange. Indeed, the first recorded major crisis was in 1953 with the “Sit-tight ministers” episode in Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe’s National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC). This was followed in 1958 by the “Zik Must Go” challenge in the same party while Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s Action Group was disrupted with its own crisis in 1962.

From the beginning to the end, both Zik and Awo came forward as masters of their respective destiny, either by emerging tops or eventually surviving the adversary. It must of course be conceded that there is no basis for comparing the NCNC and Action Group to this PDP or raising Goodluck Jonathan to the leadership level of Zik and Awo who were natural and widely accepted leaders. For example, since the emergence of the new PDP, leaders of the old PDP have not only been left gasping for breath but also forced to be suing for peace, a sign of being dazed. Also, there has been no outpouring of support by the often-touted ordinary sympathizers of the party for President Goodluck Jonathan, PDP national chairman Bamanga Tukur or the party’s Board of Trustees Chairman, Anthony Anenih.

Instead, so damaged is the remnant PDP that even overtures made by the leaders for reconciliation are contemptuously shunned with conditions stipulated to be met. In 1953, when NCNC federal ministers defied party’s directive to resign in protest against the colonial government’s proposed constitution for Nigeria, they (the ministers) were openly supported by Professor Eyo Ita who was leader of Government Business in eastern region on the platform of NCNC. The party and floor members made Eyo Ita to face a “no confidence” motion (equivalent of impeachment) which he lost in eastern house of assembly. That ended Eyo Ita’s political career as he was defeated on the platform of his newly formed political party in the consequent general elections.

Nnamdi Azikiwe’s acquisition of powers to pick the party’s national officers after he might have been elected national president in 1957 reverberated a year later in the “Zik Must Go” challenge led by K.O. Mbadiwe. That was eve of pre-independence elections. Other party members supported Zik as they went to the country for the campaigns. Mbadiwe and his supporters failed to win a single seat on the platform of his newly formed party, Democratic Party of Nigeria and the Cameroon (DPNC) in the 1959 federal elections. Zik was at least lucky to be around on both occasions to fight off his challengers.

For Awolowo, the challenge to his leadership was more daunting. When he was leaving as premier of western region for federal house of representatives in 1959, the question of his successor in the west was one of the causes of the crisis in Action Group in 1962. As Awo himself later confirmed, he preferred Tony Enahoro who served under him as minister of information and home affairs. But once party members voted for Chief S.L. Akintola, that choice was accepted by Awolowo. Somehow, the recrimination and other issues like the correct direction for the Action Group on the national scene further separated Awo and Akintola, leading to declaration of emergency to ease the violence on the floor of western house of assembly in the failed bid to impeach Akintola as premier on the platform of Action Group.

Other events followed to handicap Awolowo, not the least of which was the treason trial. The subsequent imprisonment completely put him out of the way. But instead of losing the challenge to his leadership, ordinary masses, in unsolicited support, kept the fight going for him with violent protests all over western region for some four years until he was released by General Yakubu Gowon in August 1966.  His challenger, Chief Akintola, at the end of six months emergency rule, was returned to office as premier of western region in January, 1963. SLA, as he was fondly acclaimed, formed a new political party, United People’s Party and instantly formed a coalition with the west opposition of NCNC led by Remi Fani-Kayode. That turned out to be a ruse to attract many of Awolowo’s supposed supporters to defect to Akintola’s party.

That done, Remi Fani-Kayode overnight, collapsed the NCNC and all the party’s members in western house of assembly (except one who stood on principle) into a single new party, Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP), led by Chief Akintola. The only NCNC member who remained in opposition was Chief Richard Akinyemi (Idoani, Owo consituency). Chief Akintola remained premier, Remi Fani-Kayode was compensated with the newly-created post of deputy premier. The government survived till October 1965 when elections were held. The results were hotly challenged by voters who rioted until the army coup of January 15, 1966. Unfortunately, Chief Akintola was one of the civilian victims.

Today, Goodluck Jonathan is not in such strong position like Zik and Awo. Neither is the PDP, especially the old one, stripped of its weapon of state coercion, as strongly entrenched among the people as the defunct NCNC and Action Group. That should explain why, since the eruption of the PDP crisis, Goodluck Jonathan and all those around him have been on the defensive. Obasanjo, for example is suddenly a peacemaker, although suspected to be sympathetic to the New PDP. He must also have found Jonathan to be vulnerable in the present crisis. Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, the preferred choice of Obasanjo for post of the party’s national secretary before he (Obasanjo) was rubbished by Jonathan in south west zone, is the national secretary of the new PDP. Obasanjo’s absence from the convention was also noticeable. Too much of a co-incidence!

The normally crafty Tony Anenih in crisis situations is today virtually conceding everything, if only he can be believed. Easily, he confirmed that some of the governors have genuine grievances. Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi? And then the offer to reconcile with the erstwhile irreconcilables? Is it not the fact today, that solely because of this crisis, the only qualification for the party’s newly emerging elders is to have been alienated and possibly humiliated in the past? Olusegun Obasanjo? Ibrahim Babangida? Bernabas Gemade? Solomon Lar? Ahmadu Alli? Vincent Ogbulafor? Okwesilieze Nwodo?

Goodluck Jonathan is clearly hanging on the ropes as a result of series of surprise blows. First, his countenance does not show that he ever knew in advance of the plot to splinter the party or the timing. Third, what message does he get from the large gathering at the launching of the New PDP, only a few hours (or minutes) after the walk-out from his own convention? What challenge does he think he faces from the large number of senators and House of Representatives members who have already declared for the New PDP? The greater worry for Goodluck Jonathan should be members of national assembly sympathetic to the new group but yet, for strategic reasons, remain at their posts. The momentum so far is such that Jonathan must not slip, banana peel or not. Or he will easily be impeached. After all, for now, he may not be able to claim total support of all Bayesla State members of national assembly.

For both the new and the old PDP, the picture towards 2015 is that of a do or die battle. For Jonathan, he portrays 2015 as the oxygen of life while the New PDP’s challenge to stop Jonathan from contesting in 2015 is portrayed as a mission from God. In return for Jonathan’s offer of reconciliation even through Obasanjo and Tony Anenih, the response is contemptuous rebuff, a feeling of commanding strength. Why not? The new PDP succeeded in stopping the announcement of Goodluck Jonathan as the party’s consensus automatic presidential candidate for the 2015 elections, the main purpose known to only Jonathan and his strategists.

Hence, the New PDP stipulated four conditions which are as good as meeting him only to wish him farewell. First, national chairman of the old PDP, Bamanga Tukur must go. Second, Goodluck Jonathan cannot contest in 2015. Third, Jonathan must keep away from the authentic Governors’ Forum and thereby stop harassing Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi. Fourth, Jonathan should stop harassing state governors and their supporters with interrogations by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. Except for self-serving purposes, Jonathan and the state governors in particular should find no problem with the last two conditions. As long as no state governor feels guilty of committing any financial crime, what does it matter if Jonathan intimidates with EFCC? The chances are that serving state commissioners or civil servants like permanent secretary or accountant-general would have been complicit in the alleged commission of financial crime by the state governors. These are the aides of the state governors intimidated by the EFCC on behalf of Jonathan. Nigeria’s peculiar situation is that on suspected financial crimes by public office holders at all levels, who can be immune to such allegations? It is therefore naive and indolent of state governors if, till now, they don’t have their own list of financial criminals at federal level. Every immunity lapses after public office. Aides of state governors picked up by EFCC on suspected financial crimes should make such information their main statement to the EFCC and refuse to co-operate further as well as offer to be tried strictly on that statement.

On his part, President Jonathan must ask himself why, either by accident or by design, only those state governors opposed to his second term are being harassed impliedly or directly by the EFCC. Why should the authentic Nigerian Governors’ Forum be so important to Goodluck Jonathan? For his 2015 ambition? Maybe his PDP’s Governors’ Forum? Is Jonathan aware that APC (comprising ACN, ANPP, CPC and APGA) also has members among the Governors’ Forum? Is he going to compel them to deliver votes in their states for him, provided he contests in 2015 in view of the ever changing political situation in Nigeria?

The demand by the New PDP that Jonathan should forget 2015 may not be tenable. If Jonathan decides to contest, that is his right under the constitution. We must allow the law and constitution to operate. If Jonathan, despite overwhelming contrary opinion in his party, decides to contest, there is a proper procedure to stop him, in the absence of a court decision. The way out is to ensure he loses the primaries elections. By splintering the party, the New PDP already shows its strength, which before now, Jonathan probably underestimated.

Obafemi Awolowo was on record that without the support of the electorate, in this case, angry party leaders in the constituencies concerned, no rigging can be successful. The defunct Social Democratic Party in 1991 recorded such protest votes against the party’s candidate in Lagos State, Yomi Edu. Governor Michael Otedola won the election on the platform of National Republican Convention. There is no way Jonathan can win in 2015 without the support of the New PDP.

On his part, Jonathan must also desist from antagonizing any potential challenger within his party. Both Nigerian constitution and the constitution of any of the registered political parties uphold the right of any citizen to vie, within the party of his choice for any elective office. Power changes human beings. Why suddenly has Jonathan developed the arrogance that only he and nobody else must challenge him for his party’s candidacy in 2015? He is engaged in do or die battle not to be stopped in 2015. Yet, in a simultaneous do or die battle, the same Jonathan not only wants to stop, but goes after anybody challenging him. That is self-centred.

One of the causes of the splintering of the party into the New PDP and Old PDP was the allegation that President Jonathan is violating an undertaking he gave in 2011 to contest for only one term. It is up to Jonathan to relax into private moment and decide to keep or violate the undertaking, if he ever gave such. Otherwise, given the history of the PDP as founded in1998, Goodluck Jonathan, if he reneged on the undertaking to serve only one term, would only be following the established pattern. Obasanjo gave a similar undertaking in 1999 to his northern sponsors to serve for only one term ending in 2003. When the moment came, he pleaded to contest for a second term. If only he stopped there. The same Obasanjo even tried to start a new two-term tenure of eight years in 2007 but for nation-wide opposition. If they allowed Obasanjo to renege on his undertaking, Jonathan should also beg, instead of bludgeoning potential rivals.

The New PDP demands that Bamnga Tukur must go. How? Can Jonathan sack him? That will be against the party’s constitution. But the same Goodluck Jonathan deliberately, on each occasion, created compelling circumstances for the successive resignation of Vincent Ogbulafor and Okwesilieze Nwodo to resign as national chairmen of PDP when the party was intact.

In this crisis, two men are unenviable for the fight on their hands. President Goodluck Jonathan and party chairman Bamanga Tukur. Meanwhile, Nigerians must watch out for kingpins of the New PDP, who will soon fall for money and return to fold.

TheSun