Tuesday, 3 December 2013

The G’5 Governors APC merger: Matters Arising


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Diaspora, By Ekerete Udoh

Tuesday, November 26, the worst kept secret in Nigerian politics was finally revealed: the long expected defection of the group of dissatisfied governors originally elected on the platform of PDP, to the opposition party-the All Nigerian People’s Congress (APC.)
For months, their issues and concerns with the ruling party, PDP- their erstwhile party had dominated the media and the political space- from their staged walk-out at the August 2013 PDP Convention at the Eagle’s Square  , to the formation of the now defunct New Peoples Democratic Party, to several rapprochement meetings with the president and other stakeholders  aimed at finding  some resolution to what it was that ailed and choked them- all such efforts ended in stalemate culminating in their defection November, 26 to the APC.
Several analysts and pundits have come out with their prognostications since the defection was made public. Some have called it ‘political earthquake’ while others have likened it to a ‘new realignment’ that is bound to significantly alter the political dynamics in the country. Their conclusions have all pointed to what they believe will be a difficult road to travel by the ruling party and  President Jonathan were he to offer himself again for reelection in 2015.
But the questions I wish to ask and throw open for further inquiries are: will the defection of the aggrieved governors to the opposition capable of altering the political dynamics in the country? Is the ruling party PDP truly in electoral trouble or are we making too much out of the merger? What electoral value do the aggrieved governors bring to their new party? What happens to those who had toiled in the vineyard of the opposition party all these years, and had positioned themselves to reap whatever electoral fortunes that may come their way, now that the aggrieved governors have joined their ranks, and as state executives, may not be willing to play second fiddle to these stakeholders?  Will they hand over the structure they have long nurtured, watered and made ferment for electoral success to individuals who until this week were their mortal political enemies? Who would the APC present as its presidential and vice presidential candidates? If the rumor of the likely candidacy of Kano state Governor-Rabiu Kwankwaso and his Lagos state counterpart-Babatunde Fashola becomes manifest, will Nigerians in 2013, given the heightened sense of ethnic and religious passions in the country be willing to vote for an all Muslim ticket, even though we did such in less heightened times in 1993, with the late abiola and Kingibe? Can President Jonathan given the seeming hurdles thrown his path with the new realities, win in 2015 were he to put himself forward? These are some of the issues that will engage the punditry class as the 2015 presidential election game plan begins to take shape.
There is no doubt that the defection of the five governors from PDP to APC may on paper, appear to have altered the political dynamics in the country. Any time a group of elected leaders cross-carpet, there is always a seismic shift however tenuous such may be.  The optics the photo ops generates and the public relations mileage the news cycle on the story engenders may create such a buzz as to make things appear as if there is a real change, but the hard question remains: do the governors truly bring electoral value to their new party, such that PDP will be totally obliterated in those states? Will the PDP still manage in spite of the defection to score at least 25 percent of the votes in the affected states? Will the APC presidential ticket win in a state like Rivers?  Taken together, does the number add up to negatively affect the electoral fortunes of the PDP? Now let’s look at some of these angles: The states where the majority of the five governors that defected to APC in 2011, hold sway did not vote for Jonathan even though PDP managed to score the mandatory 25 percent of the votes in those areas. So the electoral fortunes of APC in those states, Niger, Sokoto, and Kano in my opinion may not be enhanced. It’s like a Republican governor in a red state like Kansas or Oklahoma defecting to the Democratic Party. Such defection will ring hollow politically because even if the Republican Party were to dress up a goat and present such as a candidate for election, the people of Kansas will rather vote for that goat, rather than gamble with an Ivy League educated Democrat, because the Democrat will not be seen to share the values of the Kansas people. So, with or without the defected governors, the APC is expected to win those states regardless, because President Jonathan is seen as a polarizing figure in those states.
Let’s look at Rivers state- will the people of Rivers, jettison their next door son, and embrace a northern candidate simply because their Governor-Amaechi defected to the opposition party? Even though one is not cheer-leading for identity politics, I declare here that the people of Rivers will not abandon Jonathan in 2015, if he chose to run, so what electoral value will Amaechi add to the APC? Kwara state may be a little dicey given the near stranglehold hold of the Saraki political dynasty in the state, but even at that, the PDP may still garner the required 25 percent of the popular votes.
Now let’s look at the South West, as I said on this page two weeks ago, the 2011 presidential elections revealed a new strain in our political culture: the capacity of the geopolitical zones to vote local issues at local elections and to vote their conscience at the national level. I make bold to predict that though APC will do very well in the zone, given the stranglehold that ex-Governor Bolas Tinubu wields, PDP will give the APC a run for its money. The rumored ticket of the beloved Logos state governor Babatunde Fashola and its Kano Counterparty Rabiu Kwankwaso may come across as an intriguing proposition, but the people of Lagos state will vote an APC candidate for governor, but will sneer at a Muslim- Muslim ticket and vote to disappoint their beloved Governor Fashola at the presidential level. APC will lose in Ondo, and will have an uphill task wining in Oyo. APC may win in Ogun, Ekiti, Osun, but will have a huge challenge in Lagos and Oyo. The South East is certain to vote en-mass for Jonathan as with the South-South. The Middle Belt and the northern states of Kaduna, Katsina, Taraba, Bauchi, Nassarawa, will vote for Jonathan thus leaving the APC to fight for the rest of the northern states.
Another problem the newly merged governors will face in their respective states will be a political turf war. The APC stakeholders who had worked hard all along to create political structures upon which they had hope to utilize to advance their political fortunes will now have to hand over such to the newly arrived members who may not be willing to cede their preeminent position to those who had nurtured the party. The resultant rancor may lead to open fights, blackmail, and subterfuge and thus have a house that is divided against itself, which the PDP may exploit to weaken the APC.
But if PDP thinks it will coast to victory easily without coming out with a convincing blue print of development and concrete platform that they hope to utilize to address the numerous challenges that this country is facing, then they may be in for a rude awakening. It is true that millions of Nigerians are beginning to be tired of the dreams they have been sold over the years, and would like to see changes in their circumstance. Nigerians are groaning under darkness, of unemployment, of inadequate health care delivery system, of crony capitalism and unbridled corruption, of a leadership that has lost the abiding sense of the social contract, they desire a government that will galvanize the nation and move it along sustained path of development. Even though there are bright stars within the ruling party, the general verdict has not been too encouraging, so if President Jonathan were to run, he would be faced with a reinvigorated opposition that is determined to dislodge him from Aso Rock with every tool at its disposal. The president would have to convince Nigerians why they should continue with him and not with APC, even though the odds of the APC candidate winning the 2015 presidential elections appear long shot, given the analysis I have provided above.
President Goodluck Jonathan and Bola Tinubu

Congratulations, Honourable Bassey Dan Abia

Early this week, President Jonathan forwarded some names of candidates to fill some important federal government agencies to the Senate for confirmation. One of such was the Honourable Bassey Dan Abia, the immediate past Commissioner for Transport in Akwa Ibom State, who was named the Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Corporation.
Mr. Dan Abia, an erudite attorney brings a unique sense of understating of the corporation’s terrain, having been the agency’s acting chairman some years back. He will bring his managerial acumen and deep people’s skills to pilot the affairs of the corporation that has played a key role over the years in bringing development to the people of Niger Delta after decades of environmental degradation and systemic neglect. Here’s wishing the honourable, who also happens to be an ex-student of the beloved secondary school that helped nurture our intellectual curiosity-Salvation Army Secondary School,  Akai-Ubium, -Akwa Ibom State, mighty congratulations!

ThisDay

Gov. Lamido likens Pres. Jonathan to a “mad man in a fuel station with a lighter in his hand”


Sule-Lamido
By Segun Odeleye
The interview took place before last night’s meeting with Pres. Jonathan, but in a chat with Muh’d Zangina Kura of Leadership newspaper, the Jigawa governor, Sule Lamido, was critical and undiplomatic in his appraisal of the president.
At a point during the interview, the governor who recently described PDP chairman Bamanga Tukur as a virus, had this to say about the president’s leadership.
“To us we are on a rescue mission, because what we are seeing today is a mad man inside petrol filling station with lighter in his hand, the threat he poses is very lethal and would not spare anyone,” he said.
He alleged during the interview that the arrest of his two sons was politically motivated.
“This arrest of my children on alleged corruption or stealing or whatever they call it, is nothing short of political miscalculation and an attempt to jolt me to change my political philosophy and succumb to the selfish interest of an ordinary human being as against the wish of my God and betterment of Nigeria.
“Let me inform my detractors, in the last 30 years of my political struggle, I was harassed, arrested persecuted by those who saw my struggle as a threat to their interest, but I endured and refused to cow down. So at my age now with all my past experience it is a big mistake for anybody to think of using any form of threat against my family, or my life or anything else to taunt me.
“I am not proud or conceited, but I can unequivocally say, in terms of good governance, justice, fairness, and judicious use of public funds; what we are doing in Jigawa state is exceptional in contemporary Nigeria. Many people including President Jonathan, past and present political and traditional leaders had testified to that.
“But today in what appeared to be a political knife, some body called Jonathan from Bayelsa state with another person called Lamorde and some police officers tried to tell the world that they love Jigawa people and also they are concerned and keen in protecting state treasury better than me. This is very ridiculous.”
The governor took it a step further by taking a swipe at Bayelsans, insinuating that the culture in the Niger Delta state permits stealing and corruption.
According to him, “It is true every people have their own culture and traditions and wherever they found themselves, they must exhibit it. It is known to the whole world how a United Kingdom court arrested and tried former Bayelsa Governor Mr Diepreye Alamiesiegha on stealing of his state money. After the court found him guilty, the people of the state came out in defence of their child by protesting against the court action, they said the money he stole was Bayelsa state money, therefore they have forgiven him, and also warned against any attempt to arrest him by any national or international institution, this accentuated how some people behave.
“So imagine somebody with this background, now has guts to come down to Jigawa state where we have the belie and culture in which every form of stealing is absolutely repugnant and punishable, claiming he came to help us in protecting and securing our money from thieves, you know from onset the man lacks moral value for such job.
“Besides, of all the 36 state governors in the country and the federal government, it is only Sule Lamido that EFCC found corrupt, who connived with his children and looted his state money,” he said.
In a further attempt to exonerate himself and his sons from wrongdoing, the governor said that even President Jonathan had testified in the past that there is judicious use of public funds in Jigawa state.
“During Jonathan’s visit to my state in which he commissioned various projects in the state, he said the Birnin Kudu local government secretariat which we built at the cost of N400million, if it were in his state such project would not cost less than N2 billion, also the new Dutse NYSC permanent orientation camp built at the cost of N800million would cost over N2billion. However when he commissioned the new state secretariat he called all Nigerians to come to Jigawa and learn the judicious use of peoples’ money;” he said.
It should also be pointed out that the governor himself paid similar glowing tributes to the president at those times as well, but now criticises him, a testament to how transient political relationships can be.
Gov. Lamido also talked about the politics of 2015.
He said: “On the issue of contesting for any seat I never ever said somebody should not contest, what I insisted is that, there is legal and moral way to get any seat, and anybody who wants to contest election must follow due process, must be transparent way with full obedience to party and Nigeria constitution.
“It is totally wrong and reprehensible for anybody to think of using police, judiciary or other illegal way to get power, we fought against such idea in the past and we would vehemently continue to oppose it.
“So, if fighting against injustice, breach of trust and flagrant abuse to the party and Nigerian constitution, and also preaching to adhere to the rule of law is corruption, I would continue to live on this.”
He claimed that he had been expecting this kind of reaction from Aso Rock ever since they “started this struggle against President Jonathan’s move to perpetuate himself in power through illegal ways.”
According to the governor, he told his fellow governors in the movement that, “this man at the corridor of power who is so blind on his selfish interest would use any avenue to fight back, including threat to our lives, power, political interest, wealth and even our family would not be spared in his move to crush us.
“But to us the struggle is not about party or personality, it is a struggle to save the peace and unity of Nigeria, by preaching and insisting to entrench justice, fairness, fair -play and rule of law in our democracy and leadership system. This is essential for the survival of this country as a single entity.”

TheScoop

Threats Won’t End ASUU Strike – IBB offers Jonathan an elderly advice


IBB-2The Federal Government’s threat to sack striking university lecturers unless they resume work by Wednesday will not solve the crisis, former Military President Ibrahim Babangida told Daily Trust yesterday.
Education Minister Nyesom Wike last week issued a seven-day ultimatum to members of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) to end their four-month strike or lose their jobs.
ASUU leaders angrily responded, saying they would not be intimated into resuming work.
Babangida, who spoke exclusively to Daily Trust in Minna, said issuing threats was not an effective way of solving issues.
“Basically, I’ll say both Federal Government and ASUU should apply knowledge and tactfulness in resolving this issue. Issues are never settled by threat and you need to settle quarrel in a tactful way,” he said.
“For those of us who believing Islam, Allah (SWA) instructed his Prophet (PBUH) that if he wants to bring people into his religion, he should use his knowledge and tactics in talking to people.
“And I think this is what is supposed to happen between the Federal Government and ASUU. I am sure the members of ASUU are patriots; they have the interest of the students at heart because they too are parents.
“I am sure both of them can sit down together, talk as Nigerians, talk as patriots and as people who are concerned. Because at the end of the day, if that is not done, quarrelling and threat will not solve this problem. Apply knowledge and tactics in handling this problem.”
The Federal Government’s ultimatum came in the wake of a marathon meeting President Goodluck Jonathan held with ASUU leader early last month.
Following this, local ASUU chapters voted to end the strike, but the national executive of the union wrote a letter to the president setting out certain conditions for resuming work.
Those conditions include immediate provision of N200 billion grant for federal universities, payment of four-month salary arrears to lecturers, and review of the 2009 agreement in 2014.
Government said these demands were outrageous, and therefore issued the ultimatum for lectures to resume or lose their jobs.
‘PDP defections normal’
Babangida also spoke on the crisis in the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) which led to the defection of five of its governors, saying this was normal in a democracy.
“What is happening is not the first time such a thing is happening to this country,” he said.
“If we go back to 1959 to 60s political parties were in turmoil, some were breaking away and others were forming another political parties. And as recent as during the second republic, political parties have broken.
“I think this is one of the good things about democracy. The constitution allows us to form our opinion, to have an opinion and to spread such opinion. I think to me these things are normal.”
He added: “We should learn to accept that this is the basic guaranteed right to accept the status quo or to decide. Once you accept that, it reduces the area of tension. It is my right to say no I don’t like this; it is also your right to say OK. You are entitled to your own opinion; I am entitled to my own opinion. He’s entitled to his own belief; I am entitled to my own belief. Once this common understanding is brought to the bear, then you have no problem.”
Reminded that the PDP crisis led to the defection of five of its governors, Babangida insisted that this was still normal in a democracy.
“I told you this is not new. Awolowo, Azikiwe, Waziri Ibrahim, it all happened to them and for that it is good for democracy. In our part we are building a democracy in which at the end of the day, sanity and common sense will prevail and Nigeria becomes the beneficiary.”

OsunDefender

2015 Presidency: Tambuwal To Run Under APC, Sets Up TPP

Baring any last minutes change of plans, the Speaker, House of
Representatives Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal will contest the 2015
Presidential elections under the banner of the All Progressive Congress,
APC, an informed source told Pointblanknews.com.
Sources told Pointblanknews.com that Tambuwal has been secretly meeting
with top Politicians from the North and has set up the Tambuwal
Presidential Project, TPP.
TPP’s membership is drawn from top Politicians in the North, members of
the National Assembly as well as APC chieftains who are not disposed to
General Mohammadu Buhari’s presidential ambition.
Tambuwal, regarded as the “new face of Northern politics” is seen as the
most acceptable among Northern politicians who desperately yearn for power
to return to the North in 2015.
The Speaker’s Governor, Aliyu Wammako of Sokoto State recently decamped to
the APC. But the Speaker cannot leave the PDP now, as he would forfeit his
seat in the National Assembly under the new electoral law.
Tambuwal’s choice as a presidential material according to inside sources
is to represent the much call for the return of Power to the North in
2015.
Sources in the North who are following the emerging politics are of the
opinion that Hon. Tambuwal, coming from Sokoto State; a key north western
state of the country would be in better position to slug it out with
President Goodluck Jonathan in the event that the President emerged the
PDP presidential candidate.
Already top echelons of the APC who are not particularly comfortable with
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari running for the Presidency on the party’s platform
are currently said to be holding clandestine meetings to convince the
Speaker to join the Party and contest the Presidential ticket of the
party.
The Speaker, although has not acceded to the overtures but his close
associates said his body language is encouraging.
“The Speaker is a politician and so he has to calculate well before
deciding. He has not said yes to the request but from his body language,
we know he is not opposed to it,” a source who has been part of the
political calculation told Pointbalnknews.com.
Some APC chieftains are also said to have commence mounting pressure on
Gen. Buhari, urging him to drop any idea of contesting the 2015
Presidential
An APC member of the House of Representatives who pleaded anonymity said
majority of the members of the House are in support of Tambuwal’s
presidential ambition and are already working round the clock to sell the
idea to other Nigerians
“We have gone far with the Tambuwal Presidential Project (TPP) we have
reached virtually all nooks and cranny of this country to seek support of
major stake holders within and outside the APC, we are very comfortable
with the response we have received so far. Nigeria and Nigerians would get
a better deal if and when we translate the TPP into reality In-Sha-Allah
“Nigerians must also recall that that the emergence of Tambuwal as Speaker
of the House of Representatives was not the making of the PDP, rather, we
the now APC made it happen and ever since, the Speaker is  carrying
everybody along irrespective of ethnicity, tribe or religion some rare
quality a good leader must possess, the Federal Lawmaker who hails from
the north revealed.

PointblankNews

Saturday, 30 November 2013

4 Ways You May Be Hurting Your Man’s Feelings and Didn’t Even Know It!


blame_gamePSA: MEN ARE SENSITIVE! “Everything a man does in this world is to please a woman!” From childhood, little boys gravitate towards their mothers and seek to please them. Disappointing mom would hurt a boy to his core.
Well, the same things holds true in adulthood. As men, we seek to please our wives. And as masculine as we might be and as tough as we come off, our weak spots lie within our women. And because of that, you may be hurting your man’s feelings and don’t even realize it.
Here are 4 scenarios to consider:
Scenario 1
Remember that time when he took some initiative and did some things he doesn’t normally do? Remember when he cleaned the house, washed all the clothes, did the dishes and fixed those things around the house? Well, do you also remember when instead of saying thank you…the first thing you did was criticize him for missing those few spots, for not folding the clothes the way you like them folded or some other knit-picky thing?. You see, he was proud of what he had done and he did it all to satisfy you. But then you crushed that enthusiasm with your negativity. You hurt his feelings and didn’t even know it because he probably expressed it in a more masculine and defensive way like “well forget it then, next time do it your d**n self!”
Scenario 2
Remember when he took the kids off your hands for the day just to give you a break and instead of you trusting that he knew what he was doing you called 100 times? Remember when you came back home and criticized how he had dressed the kids, what he made for them to eat, and fussed about the mess he let them make? You treated him like one of the kids instead and overlooked the whole fact that he did it all for you. You hurt his feelings and didn’t even know it because you were to self-absorbed to even realize it. He didn’t let you know you hurt his feelings, instead he just allows you to handle the kids for now on because obviously he isn’t capable.
Scenario 3
Remember when he planned that special outing for you? He took to you a place he thought was nice, bought you a gift he thought you would like and he took you to the restaurant he thought you would enjoy. Do you also remember that you complained the whole weekend about the weather, you gave his gift the “what is this?” scrunched up face look, and you hated the food at the restaurant. Suddenly all of the effort he put into everything seemed in vain. Again he had disappointed you and your disappointment hurt his feelings and you didn’t even realize it. He didn’t say much about it though. But for now on he just asks you what you want to do because when he plans it you don’t like it.
Scenario 4
Remember when he made a s*xual advance at you on a Monday and you acted uninterested? Then he tried again on Tuesday and you had a headache. He tried Wednesday and you were “tired.” Thursday nights Scandal is on and he “knows better” than to “try” you during that time. Well now it’s 2 weeks later and he hasn’t tried at all and now you are getting suspicious. Well the truth is that you consistently turning down his advances hurt his feelings and his confidence. The same way you want to feel desirable he does too, but you were so used to controlling when the s*x happens that you didn’t realize that. Now he just waits on you initiate because his ego can’t take being turned down anymore.
Should He Man Up?
I see you now thinking that he should just “Man Up” right? The truth is that it’s not a matter of masculinity, it’s more about the fact that your man wants to do nothing more than please you and he wants nothing more than for you to appreciate his efforts. He might not always get it right, but if he knows you appreciate it he will keep trying until he does.

InformationNigeria

7 Secrets Of Sexually Satisfied Couples


46277_OriginalHere are the top secrets of sexually satisfied couples.
1. They Schedule s*x
Scheduling s*x tends to “take away all the very real excuses I could otherwise use, like that I’m exhausted after working and getting the kids to bed,” says Holly Jenkins*. For couples in long-term relationships, planning a romantic interlude leads to a higher-quality, more enjoyable s*xual experience.
2. They’re Quick
Couples who maintain a good s*x life during challenging times—particularly when they’re new parents—have learned to perfect the quickie. If you can figure out how to use 20 minutes to your advantage, then you can avoid dry spells in your s*x life. Think of a place or time when the s*x was amazing, and use it like a meditation.
3. They Communicate
There’s no other way to understand what your partner wants, needs or enjoys other than talking. “Save those conversations for when you’re not having s*x,” says Gilchrest O’Neill. “Though, in the actual moment, speak up about small adjustments your partner can make to increase enjoyment.”
4. They Have a Lock
Even if you don’t have a physical lock, creating a sense of boundaries is key, says Sacha Mohammed—married 14 years, with 7 children. “I always made sure the children were put to bed on time when they were little so my husband and I could have our time together; the kids were also taught to always knock to announce their presence.” According to Zdrok Wilson, “each couple needs to evaluate their environment and determine the optimal conditions for great s*x.”
5. They Experiment
“Be open to different ways of expressing yourself sexually,” says Jenkins. You have to find the right balance: Don’t be so conventional that it’s boring, but don’t be so adventurous that you lose your intimacy—or level of comfort. Maybe just get out of the house. “Many couples report that they have the best s*x when they’re not at home,” says Zdrok Wilson.
6. They Avoid Excuses
Don’t let excuses take on a life of their own. To use one example, the kids aren’t needy babies forever, and before you know it, s*x is so far on the back burner that it’s fallen completely off the stove. “Brainstorm solutions to the things that get in the way of having s*x,” suggests Gilchrest O’Neill. However, if the root of your excuses isn’t fixable—and there are underlying problems or resentments—then consider seeing a therapist.
7. They Look Good
It’s not just about pleasing your partner’s eye. Taking care of yourself makes you feel good about yourself. Not only that, but your libido is dependent on your overall health. “When you feel unhealthy, tired, ill or lacking in energy, you’re not likely to be motivated to engage in regular s*xual activity,” says Zdrok Wilson. So, do whatever makes you feel sexy, and he’s guaranteed to notice.

InformationNigeria

Eugene Robinson | The Benefits of Obama's Diplomatic Triumph on Iran


EUGENE ROBINSON ON BUZZFLASH AT TRUTHOUT
IranThe U.S.-led deal to freeze Iran's nuclear program is a great accomplishment on many levels. Begin with the most basic: What if the talks in Geneva had failed?
If Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had gone home empty-handed, we would likely be drifting toward war. Iran's uranium-enrichment centrifuges would continue whirling until it became unambiguously clear that the nation, if it chose, could make a "breakout" dash to build a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks -- something President Obama has said he will not allow.
The president could decide to attack Iran's nuclear facilities or he could wait until Israeli military action forced his hand. Either way, we'd be engaged in another Middle East war -- one whose economic, political and human consequences could be dire.
So what did Kerry do in Geneva? He won an agreement that not only freezes Iran's nuclear-enrichment program for six months but actually rolls it back; that prevents new nuclear facilities from coming online; and that provides for unprecedented daily inspections to ensure that Iran is living up to it commitments.
Let me restate that to make it clearer: In May of next year, Iran will be further away from being able to build a bomb than it is today.
And this achievement is being attacked with the word "appeasement" and references to Munich? Give me a break.
In return, the United States and other leading nations have agreed to suspend some minor sanctions that mean a paltry $7 billion to the Iranian economy. Even if negotiations for a permanent agreement ultimately fail, this is a bargain price for six months of peace -- six months, mind you, during which the Iranian nuclear program goes backward, not forward.
Critics complain that the agreement recognizes Iran's right to enrich uranium, if only in low concentrations that are useless for bomb-making. In fact, the Geneva accord is deliberately ambiguous on this issue. But it should be clear by now that sanctions, however draconian, will never halt Iran's enrichment program. In 2006, when the first U.N. sanctions were applied, Iran had at most 3,000 functioning centrifuges that produced enriched uranium at a concentration of just 3.5 percent. Now Iran has at least 18,000 centrifuges and is able to enrich uranium to the level of 20 percent -- which is nine-tenths of the way toward making fuel for a bomb.
Under the Geneva pact, half of Iran's 20 percent uranium will be diluted and no more will be produced. A military strike that eliminated half of the potential fuel for a "breakout" bomb -- and wiped out the capability to make more -- would surely be reckoned a success. It is just plain dumb to attack Kerry and Obama for achieving the same thing without firing a shot.
Critics can't plausibly oppose the agreement on practical grounds. The real reason they are freaking out is that the agreement was made possible by the most extensive high-level bilateral contacts between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 Iranian revolution. This has the potential to reshape the whole region -- to the detriment of those vested in the status quo.
With vast reserves of oil and a population of 80 million, Iran has the dimensions, and the ambitions, of a regional superpower. The election of President Hassan Rouhani -- a "moderate" in the context of the radical Islamic regime -- suggests Iran may be ready to change its relationship with the West from confrontation to coexistence. Obama has signaled a willingness to test this proposition.
Just as Richard Nixon's opening to China unsettled U.S. allies in Asia, so has Obama's phone call with Rouhani unnerved our allies in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who should be cautiously pleased that the threat from Iran is at least temporarily diminished, has reacted with irrational outrage. Saudi Arabia's autocratic leaders are sulking and grumbling.
It may be that Iran is incapable of becoming a responsible actor on the world stage as long as it is led by the mullahs. But there was a time when it was hard to imagine China being anything but a pariah as long as it was led by the Maoists -- yet now, Beijing is the capital of one of the world's economic superpowers, with Mao's picture still watching over Tiananmen Square.
Regimes do evolve, sometimes in ways that make the world a safer place. Obama is boldly asking this question: Can it happen in Iran?

BuzzFlash