Diaspora, By Ekerete Udoh
Tuesday, November 26, the worst kept secret in Nigerian politics was finally revealed: the long expected defection of the group of dissatisfied governors originally elected on the platform of PDP, to the opposition party-the All Nigerian People’s Congress (APC.)
Tuesday, November 26, the worst kept secret in Nigerian politics was finally revealed: the long expected defection of the group of dissatisfied governors originally elected on the platform of PDP, to the opposition party-the All Nigerian People’s Congress (APC.)
For months, their issues and concerns with the ruling party, PDP- their
erstwhile party had dominated the media and the political space- from
their staged walk-out at the August 2013 PDP Convention at the Eagle’s
Square , to the formation of the now defunct New Peoples Democratic
Party, to several rapprochement meetings with the president and other
stakeholders aimed at finding some resolution to what it was that
ailed and choked them- all such efforts ended in stalemate culminating
in their defection November, 26 to the APC.
Several analysts and pundits have come out with their prognostications
since the defection was made public. Some have called it ‘political
earthquake’ while others have likened it to a ‘new realignment’ that is
bound to significantly alter the political dynamics in the country.
Their conclusions have all pointed to what they believe will be a
difficult road to travel by the ruling party and President Jonathan
were he to offer himself again for reelection in 2015.
But the questions I wish to ask and throw open for further inquiries
are: will the defection of the aggrieved governors to the opposition
capable of altering the political dynamics in the country? Is the ruling
party PDP truly in electoral trouble or are we making too much out of
the merger? What electoral value do the aggrieved governors bring to
their new party? What happens to those who had toiled in the vineyard of
the opposition party all these years, and had positioned themselves to
reap whatever electoral fortunes that may come their way, now that the
aggrieved governors have joined their ranks, and as state executives,
may not be willing to play second fiddle to these stakeholders? Will
they hand over the structure they have long nurtured, watered and made
ferment for electoral success to individuals who until this week were
their mortal political enemies? Who would the APC present as its
presidential and vice presidential candidates? If the rumor of the
likely candidacy of Kano state Governor-Rabiu Kwankwaso and his Lagos
state counterpart-Babatunde Fashola becomes manifest, will Nigerians in
2013, given the heightened sense of ethnic and religious passions in the
country be willing to vote for an all Muslim ticket, even though we did
such in less heightened times in 1993, with the late abiola and
Kingibe? Can President Jonathan given the seeming hurdles thrown his
path with the new realities, win in 2015 were he to put himself forward?
These are some of the issues that will engage the punditry class as the
2015 presidential election game plan begins to take shape.
There is no doubt that the defection of the five governors from PDP to
APC may on paper, appear to have altered the political dynamics in the
country. Any time a group of elected leaders cross-carpet, there is
always a seismic shift however tenuous such may be. The optics the
photo ops generates and the public relations mileage the news cycle on
the story engenders may create such a buzz as to make things appear as
if there is a real change, but the hard question remains: do the
governors truly bring electoral value to their new party, such that PDP
will be totally obliterated in those states? Will the PDP still manage
in spite of the defection to score at least 25 percent of the votes in
the affected states? Will the APC presidential ticket win in a state
like Rivers? Taken together, does the number add up to negatively
affect the electoral fortunes of the PDP? Now let’s look at some of
these angles: The states where the majority of the five governors that
defected to APC in 2011, hold sway did not vote for Jonathan even though
PDP managed to score the mandatory 25 percent of the votes in those
areas. So the electoral fortunes of APC in those states, Niger, Sokoto,
and Kano in my opinion may not be enhanced. It’s like a Republican
governor in a red state like Kansas or Oklahoma defecting to the
Democratic Party. Such defection will ring hollow politically because
even if the Republican Party were to dress up a goat and present such as
a candidate for election, the people of Kansas will rather vote for
that goat, rather than gamble with an Ivy League educated Democrat,
because the Democrat will not be seen to share the values of the Kansas
people. So, with or without the defected governors, the APC is expected
to win those states regardless, because President Jonathan is seen as a
polarizing figure in those states.
Let’s look at Rivers state- will the people of Rivers, jettison their
next door son, and embrace a northern candidate simply because their
Governor-Amaechi defected to the opposition party? Even though one is
not cheer-leading for identity politics, I declare here that the people
of Rivers will not abandon Jonathan in 2015, if he chose to run, so what
electoral value will Amaechi add to the APC? Kwara state may be a
little dicey given the near stranglehold hold of the Saraki political
dynasty in the state, but even at that, the PDP may still garner the
required 25 percent of the popular votes.
Now let’s look at the South West, as I said on this page two weeks ago,
the 2011 presidential elections revealed a new strain in our political
culture: the capacity of the geopolitical zones to vote local issues at
local elections and to vote their conscience at the national level. I
make bold to predict that though APC will do very well in the zone,
given the stranglehold that ex-Governor Bolas Tinubu wields, PDP will
give the APC a run for its money. The rumored ticket of the beloved
Logos state governor Babatunde Fashola and its Kano Counterparty Rabiu
Kwankwaso may come across as an intriguing proposition, but the people
of Lagos state will vote an APC candidate for governor, but will sneer
at a Muslim- Muslim ticket and vote to disappoint their beloved Governor
Fashola at the presidential level. APC will lose in Ondo, and will have
an uphill task wining in Oyo. APC may win in Ogun, Ekiti, Osun, but
will have a huge challenge in Lagos and Oyo. The South East is certain
to vote en-mass for Jonathan as with the South-South. The Middle Belt
and the northern states of Kaduna, Katsina, Taraba, Bauchi, Nassarawa,
will vote for Jonathan thus leaving the APC to fight for the rest of the
northern states.
Another problem the newly merged governors will face in their
respective states will be a political turf war. The APC stakeholders who
had worked hard all along to create political structures upon which
they had hope to utilize to advance their political fortunes will now
have to hand over such to the newly arrived members who may not be
willing to cede their preeminent position to those who had nurtured the
party. The resultant rancor may lead to open fights, blackmail, and
subterfuge and thus have a house that is divided against itself, which
the PDP may exploit to weaken the APC.
But if PDP thinks it will coast to victory easily without coming out
with a convincing blue print of development and concrete platform that
they hope to utilize to address the numerous challenges that this
country is facing, then they may be in for a rude awakening. It is true
that millions of Nigerians are beginning to be tired of the dreams they
have been sold over the years, and would like to see changes in their
circumstance. Nigerians are groaning under darkness, of unemployment, of
inadequate health care delivery system, of crony capitalism and
unbridled corruption, of a leadership that has lost the abiding sense of
the social contract, they desire a government that will galvanize the
nation and move it along sustained path of development. Even though
there are bright stars within the ruling party, the general verdict has
not been too encouraging, so if President Jonathan were to run, he would
be faced with a reinvigorated opposition that is determined to dislodge
him from Aso Rock with every tool at its disposal. The president would
have to convince Nigerians why they should continue with him and not
with APC, even though the odds of the APC candidate winning the 2015
presidential elections appear long shot, given the analysis I have
provided above.
President Goodluck Jonathan and Bola Tinubu
Congratulations, Honourable Bassey Dan Abia
Early this week, President Jonathan forwarded some names of candidates
to fill some important federal government agencies to the Senate for
confirmation. One of such was the Honourable Bassey Dan Abia, the
immediate past Commissioner for Transport in Akwa Ibom State, who was
named the Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Corporation.
Mr. Dan Abia, an erudite attorney brings a unique sense of understating
of the corporation’s terrain, having been the agency’s acting chairman
some years back. He will bring his managerial acumen and deep people’s
skills to pilot the affairs of the corporation that has played a key
role over the years in bringing development to the people of Niger Delta
after decades of environmental degradation and systemic neglect. Here’s
wishing the honourable, who also happens to be an ex-student of the
beloved secondary school that helped nurture our intellectual
curiosity-Salvation Army Secondary School, Akai-Ubium, -Akwa Ibom
State, mighty congratulations!
ThisDay