Debunked: The Harold Smith Nigeria Census Lies

Harold Smith

By Peregrino Brimah

It is perhaps one of the most famously quoted references on the Nigerian blogosphere, particularly in ethnic squabbles. You probably heard or read it before if you are active on the Nigerian online community. Equivalent to the Holy Grail of anti-north Nigeria population dominance is a statement attributed to late controversial colonialist Harold Smith that goes something like this:
By Tunde Adekoya, as an alleged narrative by O. A. Olagbaiye, MBBS. FRCS; in theVanguard of, Feb. 28, 2011:
‘Brothers and sisters; on Ben TV last Thursday, Harold Smith was on a program to reveal what went behind the scene before the independence. … Harold Smith confessed that the Census results were announced before they were counted. Despite seeing vast land with no human but cattle in the north, we still gave the north 55 millioninstead of 32 Million.’
The same account is also given on the Harold Smith memorial website.
Even late distinguished author Chinua Achebe referenced the Harold Smith ‘Holy Grail,’ in “There Was A Country” (Pg.  50), asserting that Harold was sent by Sir James Robertson ‘to oversee the rigging of Nigeria’s first election ‘so that its compliant friends in (Northern Nigeria) would win power, dominate the country, and serve British interests after independence.’
I proceed to debunk this claim on three premises.
Firstly, the population figures:
According to Harold’s Grail, in most sources, ‘he gave the north 55 million instead of 32 million.’ This is clearly incoherent information because the entire population of Nigeria at the time was 31.6 million, so there is absolutely no way a census could have given the north 55 million. So the Grail is debunked easily based on figures late Harold allegedly put forth. If he indeed quoted these figures, his old age state of mind may have been questionable. {populstat.info/Africa/nigeria}
Secondly, the timing of the event:
The census in question was the 1952-53 census. Nigeria conducted decennial censuses. It appears the 1953 census was about a year late, but this is the census referred to by Harold Smith. The problem with his account however was the fact that he said he was part of falsifying the census figures. But according to the Harold Smith memorial website, Genesis Nigeria and all other sources, Harold Smith was in school and then being a new father in London up until 1954 when he saw an advertisement for a Labour Officer position and applied and then travelled down to Nigeria with his lovely wife Carol, in 1955. He was 26 years old at the time.  If he literally did not even know of Nigeria till 1954, how could he have possibly been ‘sent by Sir James Robertson to falsify our 1952-53 census figures?’ Here again, we easily debunk the popular tale attributed to Harold Smith. Perhaps young Harold heard something. Perhaps he saw massive land and imagined something—the north landscape is more than double the size of the South. It is also possible that some people had a drink with old Harold and convinced or bribed him to sell a tale; but for certain, he was definitely not part of anything related to the 1952/3 census based on the record of when he entered Nigeria a full three years after.
Thirdly, the fact of coincident earlier censuses:
Research into Nigeria’s earlier censuses actually substantiates the 55-45% North-South ratio in the 1953 census that Harold claimed to have falsified. According toAllAfrica, Nigeria’s most credible census was that held in 1921. I quote:
‘The first attempt to know the Nigerian population was in 1921, which could be regarded as the best and the properly-controlled census in Nigeria. The most successful censuses after the first were those of 1931 and 1952/1953. These three censuses were conducted under and by the colonial administration.’
The 1921 census gave the Northern Province 10.26 million and the south, 8.37 million.
The 1931 census gave the north a total of 11.44 million and the south, 8.49 million.
If we check the ratio’s of these results of earlier censuses, it is approximately 55-45% for both. This is the same as the results of the 1953 census to which Harold’s Grail referred. Now, we do have reasons to distrust the British, but the claim that the falsification of ‘Harold and team’ was in preparation for a handover does not apply to the earlier censuses since these were well before a handover. It is however possible that the British always counted-up the north. But this thought is not supported by Harold’s allegations since for one, he was not there and two, he got the numbers all completely wrong as he is quoted.
This completes my submission on this all important issue. It is possible Harold Smith has been quoted out of date, context and reference; but if so, it is a shame that dignified Nigerians have blindly used such an obviously erroneous and preposterous tale to unfairly promote agenda and ethnic strife. The truth is a better and stronger tool to get all we want and desire.
Nigeria has many reasons for beef and grief, however in the national conversation, as we decide if and how to exist, coexist or not coexist, it is important we separate facts from malicious and ill intended fabrications and conspiracies which do not speak well of our national intelligence.
Population density can never be estimated by the brain or imagination and can only be verified by a true count. There are concentrated large mega cities and trade hobs in deserts as there are in tropics. If someone imagined that little Lagos today has a population of 30 million, looking at the map, many will refuse to believe. 30 million was the population of the entire Nigeria in 1953. Concentrations could have been possible in any of many major trade hobs and large cities.
We hope for a census we all can believe sometime in the future; and that it be a census for measuring and planning opportunity for the regions or nation(s), and not for promoting and propelling xenophobia.
Dr. Peregrino Brimah

Saharareporters

Patience Jonathan Blasts Akpabio: Stop Deceiving My Husband, You Have Secret Agenda

Governor Godswill Akpabio is one of the governors believed to be close to President Goodluck Jonathan in the political calculation of 2015, but those who know what is really going on are saying that Akpabio is also one of those on Jonathan's 1,000 political watch list that ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo exposed.

As you read this, the crisis rocking the Peoples Democratic Party as a result of President Jonathan’s second term ambition may have claimed another casualty. The latest, according to an inside source, is the Akwa Ibom State Governor, Godswill Akpabio, as his secret ambition has finally come out open.

Inside sources within the nation’s seat of power informed THE INK newspaper that Nigeria’s first lady and wife of the President, Dame Patience Jonathan descended ferociously on Akpabio at the Presidential Villa in Abuja recently, accusing him of being a cog in the wheel of the process to resolve the crisis in the PDP.

According to the source, a visibly angry Patience Jonathan shouted at the Governor and asked him why he is busy deceiving her husband, President Jonathan.

She was said to have told Governor Akpabio point blank that he should stop masquerading himself before her husband as a peacemaker and concentrate on his now revealed Vice Presidential ambition.

Reports reaching the First Lady, the source continued, have confirmed that Governor Akpabio’s treachery and pursuit of his Vice Presidential ambition is responsible for the failure of the reconciliation process in the party and one of the reasons the G7 Governors have ditched the party.

It was further revealed that the First Lady accused the Governor of being on a mission to destroy Jonathan for his selfish interest. She is said to have cited Akpabio’s recent spate of private visits to leading traditional rulers and politicians in the North and other parts of Nigeria.

The President’s wife is said to have told the Governor that she was aware that Akpabio is working for his own ambition while pretending to be working for the re-election of the President. The source who spoke on strict confidentiality said that a visibly embarrassed Akpabio was dumbfounded and broke down in tears.

Nigeriaonpoint News

End game for Jonathan presidency

 BY LEKAN SOTE

Lekan Sote

For the moment, please look away from the “Mummy Dearest” letter that Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello purportedly wrote to her father, former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Even though it was a classic case of personality profiling that only Sigmund Freud can unravel, it should not be allowed to distract from the profound submissions of Obasanjo himself, on the state of the nation, and the jam that he thinks President Goodluck Jonathan has put himself. After weightier matters of state have been resolved, domestic matters of “Citizen Obasanjo House of Commotion” can be looked into. Right now, if the hand of the President is stuck in a cookie jar, all care must be taken to extricate it without breaking the jar. In his letter, Obasanjo observes that Jonathan, as President, occupies five strategic positions in Nigeria: As leader of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party; political leader of the nation; Headship of the Federal Government; Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces; and Chief Security Officer of the nation. These are positions, whose duties may be delegated, but  the responsibilities remain with the President.

The letter, “Before It Is Too Late,” reminds one of those seminal salvos that the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo used to send to disconcert military Head of State, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo. The concerns of the letter are fivefold: First, Obasanjo is personally disappointed that after God, as he claims, had used him to install Jonathan as President, he is being systematically relegated from the sphere of influence. He laments that fawning sycophants, unpatriotic compatriots and latter-day friends (or “frenemies”) now hold sway in the Presidency. He says that he wants nothing from Jonathan, but that he should run the polity well, and boasts: “I have passed the stage of being flattered, intimidated, threatened, frightened, induced or bought.” But he must be sufficiently worried if his relatives and friends are harassed, and for his personal safety. After all, there are reports, he says, that the Presidency is keeping political watch over some 1,000 Nigerians. He admonishes the President not to misuse the military and security apparatus, as he recalls his prison experience under the watch of the most fiendish dictator Nigeria ever had.

Secondly, Obasanjo is peeved at reports of allegations that the President engaged in anti-party activities, and worked against the interests of members of the Peoples’ Democratic Party who contested, in recent gubernatorial elections in Lagos, Ondo, Edo and Anambra States. He warns that if the party collapses now, it will be the first time that a ruling party collapses while in office, apart from an external cause of a military coup. He therefore counsels the President to move to the centre of the party, carry everyone along, and not allow PDP fall into the hands of criminals, jobbers and discredited touts. This, he, warns, may cause men and women of honesty, honour, principles, morality and integrity to step aside and rethink. Already five sitting PDP Governors and 37 sitting members of PDP have decamped to APC, and many more are expected to follow.

Third, Obasanjo fears that the President’s actions may jeopardise the national interest. He alerts that danger may be lurking in the corner, and points out the need to deemphasise geographical and religious differences. He observes that foreign investors are worried, and are holding on to their investment purses. Some, like the International Oil Companies are transferring oil and gas investments and are moving away from Nigeria to invest in second choice Angola. Foreign direct investors worry about the security situation, especially the Boko Haram terrorists, high level of corruption, and the breach in the integrity of the security of Nigeria’s coastal waters. Obasanjo warns that Nigeria must not degenerate to economic dormancy, but take advantage of current favourable international interest in Africa. He sternly warns that the President must not be seen to be assisting murderers to evade the law, or thought to be promoting or fraternising with known drug barons (who are obviously seek legitimate avenues to launder their ill-gotten wealth, or) even obtain political power. That is a grave concern. And though he is wary of Jonathan’s new love for the proposed National Conference, he will have to wait and see how it unfolds.

Fourth, Obasanjo thinks Jonathan must deliver on his personal integrity. He should not be saying one thing while his body language is saying the opposite. Obasanjo discloses that he decided to campaign for Jonathan in 2011 because the latter had assured him that he would not seek re-election in 2015; he would have ruled for six years, as his completion of the remaining two years of the Yar ‘Adua Presidency would have dovetailed into his own four-year term. That would have been sufficient for him, he had told Obasanjo. To now renege on that, and seek cover under some imprecise aspects of the constitution, may be legally correct, but morally wrong. Finally, Obasanjo thinks that the President’s seeming intention to breach a pledge, and the insults and threats thrown at other Nigerians by his Ijaw kinsmen, may not be the best way to making friends across the nation. But worse of all, it may foreclose the chances of another Ijaw, or minority, becoming President.

Now look at these: Five of the seven “New Peoples Democratic Party Governors”, 37 PDP members of the House of Representatives from Kano, Kwara, Sokoto and Rivers states, have defected to the All Progressives Congress, and there is speculation that another 40 may join. The leadership of the APC met with former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who is now  reportedly consulting with his political associates before deciding whether to join the party or not. You may recall that, in 2007, Atiku was the presidential candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria, which merged with other political parties to form theAPC. The APC leadership has also met Obasanjo, who says that though he remains a card-carrying member of the PDP, he thinks the APC is necessary for deepening democracy in Nigeria. He admonished its members to play politics devoid of rancour and bitterness, but with decency. He vows that nothing will detract him from his commitment to Nigeria. Considering Obasanjo’s military career and political antecedents, this is not surprising.

But by accommodating the opposition, reporting Jonathan to Nigeria’s equivalent of Grandees or City Fathers, Generals Ibrahim Babangida, Abubakar Abdulsalami and Theophilus Danjuma, and former Vice-President Alex Ekwueme, and receiving the leaders of the APC, Obasanjo may have moved the pieces on the chess board against the President. If more PDP members of the House of Representatives join the APC, the party would have almost two-third majority in the House, whose PDP Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, is perceived a sympathiser of the APC.

When your King is compromised in a game of chess, and there is no way to save it, wise players bravely call for an end to the game. The President may have done this in his rather sentimental reply to Obasanjo on Sunday. After denying some of the allegations, disclosing some positive actions he has taken, and spattered some of his own mud, he tells Obasanjo: “… You have done me grave injustice in your public letter in which you wrongfully accused me of deceit… dishonesty, incompetence, clannishness, divisiveness and insincerity.” But anyway you look at it, the democratic animal that Obasanjo describes as “game of numbers” will prevent Jonathan from succeeding himself in 2015.

Punch

The Unfolding Tragedy in South Sudan holds lessons for Nigeria - "South Sudan: the state que fell apart in a week" - by David Howden

The first Western journalist into South Sudan from Juba reports on the brutal and sudden descent into civil war Juba Daniel Howden in The Guardian, Monday 23 December 2013 2) A week ago, Simon K, a 20-year-old student living in the capital of South Sudan, was arrested by men in military uniforms. He was asked the question que has taken on deadly Importance in the world's newest country in the past seven days: incholdi - "What is your name?" in Dinka, the language of the country's president and its largest ethnic group. Those who, like Simon, were unable to answer, risked being Identified the Nuer, the ethnic group of the former vice president now leading the armed opposition and facing the brunt of what the insiders are describing the world's newest civil war. Simon K was taken to a police station in the Gudele market district of Juba, where he was marched past several dead bodies and locked in a room with other young men, all Nuer. "We counted ourselves and found we were 252," he told the Guardian."Then They put guns in through the windows and started to shoot us." The massacre continued for two days with soldiers returning at intervals to shoot again If They saw any sign of life. Simon was one of 12 men to survive the assault by covering Themselves in the bodies of the dead and dying. Simon spoke from inside the UN compound que has become an emergency sanctuary to the remaining Nuer in the capital. Sitting on a filthy mattress by the side of a dirt road, with bandages covering bullet wounds in his stomach and legs, he Recalled: "It was horrible, because to survive I had to cover myself with the bodies of dead people, and During the two days, the bodies started to smell really bad. " In the space of seven desperate days, the UN base has been transformed from a logistics hub for an aid operation into the squalid sanctuary for more than 10,000 people. Amid the confusion of bodies and belongings, a handmade sign hangs from the rolls of razor wire. "The Lord is our best defense," it reads. But there is no sign here of the lord's defense, the the country que Gained independence in 2011 with huge international fanfare and support has come apart in the space of a week. The latest violence Began after a fight between Dinka and Nuer soldiers in the presidential guard on 15 December, igniting the simmering political power struggle in South Sudan's ruling party and sparking Widespread ethnic killings. Juba resident Gatluak Kual, who has bullet wounds in both arms and a prosthetic foot from the 20-year battle que Sudan split and created an independent south two years ago under President Salva Kiir, says the country is at war once more. United Nations Mission in Sudan personnel guard South Sudanese people displaced by fighting in Jabel, on the outskirts of Juba, the South Sudan capital. Photograph: James Akena / Reuters "Everyone here has lost someone [in the last week]," he said, gesturing in October over the multitude with the finger he broke five days ago disarming the Dinka militiaman who was trying to kill him. "We have seen our daughters, our brothers, our mothers killed simply because They are Nuer. To me this is already a civil war." The reverberations of the wave of targeted killings que Began in the fledgling capital are being felt throughout the country, Where They have sparked copycat revenge attacks and atrocities. Generals who have mutinied have seized the capital of South Sudan's largest state, Jonglei, and its main oil-producing area, Unity State. Former vice-president Riek Machar threw his support behind the armed opposition and is now its de facto leader. On Sunday a full-scale tank battle was being fought between opposing factions in the South's army in the far western Reaches of oil-rich, swampy Upper Nile. "It would have been Difficult one week ago to imagine que things would unravel to this extent , "said the UN's head of humanitarian affairs in South Sudan, Toby Lanzer. The fighting has already Claimed Thousands, if not Thousands of you, of civilian lives. Hundreds of Thousands of South Sudanese have fled into the bush or returned to home villages, According to the UN. The official death toll of 500, Which Corresponds with the number of dead in a single Juba hospital six days ago, is being dismissed by experts. The veteran aid worker, who has been Assessing the scale and nature of the killings from sources nationwide, said the real figure was "in the hast of thousands". On Monday, Machar Claimed Gained his forces had control of all the major oil fields in Unity and Upper Nile states. The information minister, Michael Makuei, told Reuters this was "wishful thinking." In Juba, Gatwech T remembers how, last Tuesday, he ran for his life When soldiers attacked his home area of Hai Referendum. Some of the men outran the younger ones, who were caught by men in uniform. "They caught the boys and I stopped to watch. Them They counted and there were 21 boys, the young the him," he said, pointing at a 15-year-old."They Their hands tied behind backs and killed Their Them." Yien K, 28, was at home last Monday evening at around 10pm in the area on the Jabarona outskirts of the capital When he heard shooting. As it came closer he Decided to hide at his brother's home. There were five of Them inside the simple structure: his brother, his brother's wife, one-year-old niece and another six-year-old girl, a cousin. Yien recalls the moment just after midnight When the tracks of a tank ripped through the walls and crushed the one-year-old. "The tanks came and ran over the house," he said. "The men escaped but the woman and girls were killed." Unlike some of Juba's Neighbourhoods, Which have divided along ethnic lines, Jabarona is a mixed area and Believes Yien the tank operators had guides showing Them where Nuer people were living. In Neighbourhoods such the Mangaten, Hai Referendum, Area 107 and Eden City, it is now easy to tell where the Nuer community lived. Halfway down the main market street of Mangaten, the dust-blown complex of tin-shack shops and rickety stalls, the bustle and activity stops. Most businesses have been ransacked, Their rough shelves stripped of everything; stalls have been burned to the ground. Crossing Into Referendum Hai, one of the highest density settlements in Juba, is now a ghost town of abandoned houses. On Saturday, a few laid-back looters Could be seen loading a meager haul of plastic chairs, pots and foam mattresses on to three -wheelers. In some houses nearby plates of food were left behind, clothes have been scattered where people fled. Only broken plastic chairs, empty tubs of milk powder and smashed fans lie in the dirt. Crossing the boundary into Eden City, the atmosphere changed. Plainclothes soldiers, one of Them with a plastic-handled kitchen knife in the pocket of his shorts and a machete visible under his football shirt stopped and questioned any outsiders. Only 20 meters away was the charred corpse of a man lying with his legs splayed outside the looted Eden Sports bar. Nearby, a nervous family had returned to Their mud hut home, known as the tukul, to visit Moses' aged mother who is too ill to make the journey to the UN base less than a mile away. He was determined to leave before nightfall, When the dusk-to-dawn curfew imposed by the government begins. "The army is coming at night," he said. . "You hear the guns going tuk-tuk-tuk" Rose, who emerged from the tukul where Moses' mother is bed-ridden, said: "Everybody has been running because of war We're Also running.." South Sudan's government , Which has received billions of dollars in foreign aid and is home to the largest UN peacekeeping operation in the world outside the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to insist que massacres in Juba have not happened.The president, Whose guards sparked the first fighting on 15 December, has assured the South Sudanese que his forces will protect civilians. Philip Aguer, the spokesman for the Sudan People's Liberation Army, the civil war guerrilla force that is now the national army, denied any orchestrated attacks had taken place. He said he was unaware of the slaughter at Mangaten police station and blamed any deaths on "criminal elements" who had exploited the chance to loot and kill afforded by the crisis. "Even though some of these criminals are wearing army uniforms Does Not Necessarily Mean They are part of the army," he said. He denied any national army soldiers were Involved: "The SPLA soldiers are Involved in this criminal activity." With regard to Those carrying out the atrocities, he added: "We are ready to arrest and take Them Them to court." But this description of rogue elements does not tally with the account of W Riek, who until Saturday was a serving member of the presidential guard, known to the Jubans the "Tigers". A three-year veteran of the multi-ethnic unit que was meant to bind the diverse communities of what had been southern Sudan, he was not openly known as the Nuer to many of his colleagues and does not bear the traditional "Gaar" scarring que many Nuer men have on Their faces. Now in hiding in the UN base, he described how fighting between Dinka and Nuer members of the Tigers last Sunday night had spilled over into attacks on civilian Nuer all over the city."They took people who were not soldiers and Their hands tied and shot Them. I saw this with my own eyes, I was there wearing the same uniform the Them. "Young men from the Dinka community, many of Them with no military training, were Given uniforms and guns from various armories around the capital, including one located at President Kiir's own compound, known the J1, he says. "It is soldiers who are doing this and militia from Dinka boys who have been Given guns from the Tigers," he said. Riek W que said his colleagues Dinka Could Not act without the authority of Their commander and que They were "the same soldiers que are killing people at night." Riek W, who Decided to abandon his post in the president's compound at the weekend the he feared for his life and was horrified at the murder of civilians, said que the scale of the killings was being covered up."They ... are using the curfew to remove the bodies," he said. He described how he had seen "large trucks" full of bodies, some of Which were taken to sites with bulldozers dug grave, while others had been dumped in the river Nile at two points: one near the barracks and one Bilpam at Juba bridge. These reports have been corroborated by fishermen who have seen the bodies up on the river bank."They are saying The numbers are completely wrong, people everywhere have been killed," said Riek W. The Nuer who have survived in Juba, numbering 20,000, are now crammed into the city's two UN bases. Their fate is matched by another 14,000 civilians from other ethnic groups sheltering with the UN in South Sudan's other main towns. Many of the Nuer into crowded the main UN mission based in Juba said They Were sure the peacekeepers would protect Them Despite the evacuation over the weekend of all non-critical UN staff. Not everyone feels safe, though. Wearing a pinstriped suit jacket and dusty Apologising for not having showered in six days, 51-year-old Peter Bey was unsure. He has watched in recent days the evacuation flight one after another has taken foreign nationals to safety from the airport on the other side of the fence. "We see from history que the UN has left people behind in Rwanda before," he said. "They put on helicopters Their Own people and left the people who died."

via: nasirl el'Rufai's fb

DO THEY KNOW THAT "HE DOES NOT GIVE A DAMN"?

 Ishiyaku GangJidda


Financial Times of London has advised President Goodluck Jonathan to order a forensic audit of oil and gas earnings in the country to Enhance transparency and Ensure That the country is not unnecessarily susceptible to oil price shocks. The FT said, " Jonathan Should a forensic order, external audit of the oil accounts  
to clear up the confusion. This could go two ways. It could expose the real extent of losses owing to gross mismanagement and knock a further dent in public confidence. "However, It Could Also que show the government is serious about plugging the holes, while adding urgency to the passage of legislation meant to restore the industry back to health. " This came on the heels of the controversy trailing the Alleged $ 49.8bn missing oil revenue. The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Lamido Sanusi, had in a letter to the President Alleged que the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation had failed to remit into the Federation Account the sum of $ 49.8bn between January 2012 and July 2013. Though reconciliation meetings between the CBN and the NNPC, Department of Petroleum Resources and Federal Inland Revenue Service had pruned the unremitted revenue to $ 10.8bn, FT That was not enough said, adding que the forensic audit would reveal the extent of oil revenue losses in the country. It said, "As it turns out, the central bank's calculations contained big omissions. After poring over the data, officals have whittled the figure is related shortfalls down to more like $ 11bn. There are still big questions left to answer, however. "The first is how the state oil company justifies withholding the $ 11bn Identified. This, in turn, is part of a bigger puzzle over falling oil Revenues que drove the central bank governor to raise the alarm in the first place. " According to FT, part of the answer lies in industrial-scale direct theft from the pipelines; adding another que might lie in regulatory uncertainty. lamented medium que The far-reaching legislation designed to clean up the mess in the sector had been languishing for five years."As a result, there has been a marked drop in investment in production by fresh the international oil companies, "it said. further FT said the shortfalls on the books were not fully explained by production losses and fluctuations in price. It said, "Oil earnings this year are down by about a third in dollar terms Compared with 2011 while the fall in exports is on average 10 per cent. Swap contracts, When crude oil allocated for domestic consumption is Exchanged for refined product imports without money changing hands may be hiding Substantial further losses. "To fill gaps in the budget this year, the Finance Ministry has had to draw down on the rainy-day savings fund that is Financed by windfall earnings above the budgeted price of oil. This has left Nigeria unnecessarily vulnerable to shocks. "

Obasanjo’s letter, 30 years after Awo’s

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo eventually collected the rejoinder to his fifth letter he wrote to President Goodluck Jonathan. Even though Jonathan publicly assured that response, nobody bargained for the tough tone. Obasanjo had earlier justified making his fifth letter public because, as he claimed, all his previous letters to Jonathan were somehow rebuffed.

In his response, Jonathan explained he never thought Obasanjo needed rejoinders to the earlier four letters because the two of them after each letter had, in face-to-face discussions, ironed out all matters of concern which Obasanjo raised. There ended the formal explanatory aspects of Jonathan’s letter.

Thereafter, everything was punchy, contemptuous, daring, accusatory, unrestrictedly bellicose and downright challenging. Could this be the Goodluck Jonathan everybody portrayed as a weakling, completely clueless to Nigeria’s myriad of problems? Well, Jonathan has removed the gloves. If former German Chancellor, Otto Von Bismark decided to solve all issues of his time with blood and iron, Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan has opted for bare knuckles. And that, against his two-time very powerful predecessor, Olusegun Obasanjo, a retired Army General.
It is frightening how a bloody civilian can thump a retired Army General on the nose.

Nigerian soldiers generally look down on fellow citizens as “bloody civilians” never expected to dare defiance or dissidence. It should therefore be understood as Obasanjo said he would not give any further response to Jonathan’s counter aggression.
Who anyway, expected a fight back?

At least, not Jonathan who deliberately went all out to silence the enemy, as he marshaled dangerous innuendoes that only a man enjoying total immunity, like the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria could unleash. (a) Suspected official plot to burn down national headquarters of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to render the 2007 elections impossible. (b) Alleged plot to assassinate the then Bayelsa State governor and vice presidential candidate, Goodluck Jonathan at his country-home, Otuoke, before the 2007 elections, a tragedy Jonathan escaped because he did not eventually travel home.

If any of these alleged plots had materialized, a state of national emergency would have been declared and the presidential elections might have been postponed indefinitely. To remove any doubt about his allegation, Jonathan added a clincher. “I got calls expressing the concern of Abuja. But despite the apparent concern, no single arrest was ever made… The security people ordinarily should have unraveled the assassination attempt on me.”
By far, the most acerbic of Jonathan’s innuendoes were the following two in matters of corruption under past regimes dating back to 1975 as compared to his (Jonathan’s) current administration. Recalling that the late Fela Anikulapo-Kuti released an album on corruption under General Obasanjo’s military regime, Jonathan chested out that “… a number of Army Generals were to be retired because of corruption before the Dimka coup. Also, the late General Murtala Mohammed himself wanted to retire some top people in his cabinet on corruption-related issues before he was assassinated.”

Whether these innuendoes are valid or not is not the issue. But to dare challenging or disputing them might have propelled hitherto unknown and officially undisclosed facts to solidify the innuendoes.

However, Obasanjo’s decision to keep quiet for now must not be taken as a sign of defeat or self-guilt. What is more, when a boxer (with odds on to win) takes a heavy blow or such a blow ordinarily looms, it is only sensible for the boxer to retreat or dodge. Neither is Obasanjo the first in this letter writing or “siddon look” business in the national interest. Despite Obasanjo’s well-known political animosity against Obafemi Awolowo (still evident in Obasanjo’s letter to Jonathan) he, Obasanjo, copied the show from Awolowo.

Chief Awolowo, then leader of the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) was the strongest rival of former President Shehu Shagari in the presidential elections of 1979 and 1983. Sometime in 1982, Awolowo assessed Nigeria’s economic prospects and foresaw imminent collapse. Accordingly, he wrote an open letter to President Shagari advising urgent actions.

Clearly because of Awolowo’s political antecedents as the strongest candidate the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN) had to defeat, President Shagari read politics into Awolowo’s letter and dismissed his fears. Nigerian political history thereafter proclaimed Awolowo as the winner of the debate who laughed last.

Nobody should count Obasanjo out in his “no comment” reaction to President Jonathan’s letter. Like Obafemi Awolowo last time, Obasanjo is only waiting to laugh last. This should be noted even if, on a Sunday in the coming months leading to the 2015 presidential elections, the same Obasanjo shows up at Aso Rock chapel to join President Jonathan in some kind of thanksgiving service. At this level of open hostility between the two men, any delusion of reconciliation carries the risk between the crafty old fox and the naive cock. Defeat is not in Obasanjo’s dictionary.
In his rejoinder, President Jonathan dismissed, as a matter of righteous indignation, large portions of Obasanjo’s observations/allegations as beer parlour gossips without saying so in many words and in fact directed relevant agencies like Human Rights Commission and security agencies to investigate. One advice on this score for President Jonathan is that he must closely monitor the investigating agencies concerned so that should the need arise for Obasanjo to be interrogated, he, as an ex-President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, must not be humiliated or summoned. Instead, he must be accorded all the courtesy attributable to that exalted position. Possible interrogators should meet ex-President Obasanjo in his preferred residence at Ota or Abeokuta.
While responding to Obasanjo’s letter, President Jonathan could have done better without whingeing or exhibiting himself as being persecuted. Jonathan accused Obasanjo of doing him “…grave injustice with your public letter in which you wrongfully accused me of deceit, deception, dishonesty, incompetence, clannishness, divisiveness, and insincerity among other ills.” In this wise, Jonathan was not a peculiar victim.

At one time or the other, Obasanjo had in the past similarly labeled Shehu Shagari, General Muhammadu Buhari, General Ibrahim Babangida, General Sani Abacha, even MKO Abiola (he wrote off as not the messiah Nigeria needed) and the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. In the latter case, the same Obasanjo while appearing on a BBC television slot “HARD TALK” initially refused to comment on Yar’Adua but still went on to concede that Yar’Adua “is a nice man.”

If that appeared complimentary, Obasanjo made his view clear as he immediately told the world on the same program that “but being a nice man is not the same as being competent.” Would ex-American presidents Bill Clinton and George Bush come on Nigerian television to dismiss the competence of President Barack Obama? Would former British prime ministers John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown go on American or Nigerian television to dismiss current Prime Minister David Cameron as incompetent?

The same Obasanjo once accused former President Ibrahim Babangida of turning Minna, capital of Niger State, into a typical London. What could be more inciting? Jonathan must have visited Minna many times. What is so special about that city to make it extra-ordinary over other capital cities in Nigeria except perhaps Abeokuta, capital of Ogun State? Thanks to the state’s present governor Ibikunle Amosun who has been acknowledged by even former president Obasanjo of developing five cities in the state – Abeokuta, Ijebu-Ode, Ilaro, Ota and Sagamu with infrastructure on an unprecedented scale all within two years of his (Governor Amosun’s) tenure.

Jonathan was, therefore, wrong to create the impression that Obasanjo singled him out for criticisms.
Some other submissions of President Jonathan in his letter to Obasanjo are just laughable. In fact, Jonathan should either discharge his functions to the Nigerian nation or allow the accusation against him to stick that he condones or fails to tackle corruption. Read Jonathan in his letter, supposed to be a repudiation of Obasanjo’s allegation of corruption in Nigeria. “Even in this Fourth Republic, the Siemens and Halliburton scandals are well-known.”
So what, President Jonathan? If these two scandals are well known, especially to Jonathan and he fails to put those involved on trial, is that Obasanjo’s fault? Or should Jonathan’s failure to prosecute the suspects be an answer to Obasanjo’s allegation against Jonathan for aiding corruption? Instead, the fact that Jonathan concedes the Siemens and Halliburton corruption scandal justifies Obasanjo’s criticisms of corruption against Jonathan’s administration. The ball is therefore in Jonathan’s court to commence prosecution against the suspects.

Jonathan cites the election of Nigeria into the United Nations Security Council two times since the inception of his administration in 2010. And we should consider that as a major achievement? My friend, has Nigeria’s temporary membership of the UN Security Council improved power supply in Nigeria? Has Nigeria’s membership of the same council enhanced water supply in Nigeria?

Has Nigeria’s membership of UN Security Council curbed or even halted crude oil theft? To worsen matters, from 2010 to date, the number of private jets in Nigeria rose from just over 30 to almost 200, a disgusting status symbol attained by those manipulating Nigeria’s financial regulations to fleece the national purse. If, as once conceded by President Jonathan in an interview with the TELL Magazine that a huge sum of over one trillion naira was paid by NNPC without the approval of National Assembly as mandatory under Nigerian constitution and without the involvement of the Federal Ministry of Finance, of what value to ordinary Nigerians is even a permanent membership of United Nations Security Council?

President Jonathan must return from the foreign scene to understand the anger and criticisms of Nigerians. If centered on him, only to the extent that the buck stops on his table. Nobody is accusing or has accused Jonathan of stealing Nigeria’s one kobo. But we have the right to criticize him for failing to deliver on his promise that those involved in the criminal expenditure of over one trillion naira without authority would have to explain. Have they explained? Has Jonathan reported back to the nation?

This issue typifies the widespread public anger against seeming uncontrollable theft of public funds with impunity by whoever cares to steal. Is Jonathan not bothered about reports (some of them careless reports like that of Central Bank) of missing billions of naira and billions of dollars almost everyday? And these are public funds. Even on the allegation of the Central Bank governor, it was concluded even by Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala that at least ten billion dollars, which should have been paid to the Federation Account, was still to be located. What is going on? As time goes on, nothing more will be said about this particular issue.

Under Jonathan’s administration, Nigeria has been reportedly ranked as the preferred destination in Africa for foreign investors.

TheSun

Liberian president’s guard arrested for drug trafficking

MONROVIA- The head of Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s presidential motorcade has been arrested for attempting to smuggle drugs in an official vehicle,police said on Monday.

Perry Dolo was arrested after crossing the border from Sierra Leone with 297 kg (655 pounds) of marijuana, Deputy Police Director for Administration Rose Stryker told journalists. Also arrested were another Liberian, a Guinean national and a Sierra Leonean military officer.

The arrest was an embarrassment for Johnson Sirleaf, whose government has been trying to crack down on the widespread use of marijuana, particularly among younger people.

“He was not on official duty when this happened,” Stryker said.

 (Reuters)