Blessed is the All Progressives Congress
(APC) member who reads this piece, and keeps those things that are
written in it; for the time is near.
Yes, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has
released the timetable for the long-awaited (and dreaded) 2015 general
elections. On the day the world celebrates love next year, February 14,
Saint Valentine’s Day, Nigerians will be filing out to declare their
love for a new president, and members of the National Assembly. And two
weeks later, they will be on the march again to choose new governors,
and lawmakers into the state assemblies.
Since we returned to democratic ways in 1999, this is perhaps going
to be the most keenly contested, the most pulsating election in the
country. The rampaging Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has won
every election at the centre, and in majority of the states, now has to
contend with a rainbow coalition, an amalgam of opposition parties that
has formed a confederacy to wrest power in 2015. I tell you, this may
be our keenest election ever.
John the Divine, one of the apostles of Jesus Christ, was banished to
the island called Patmos, “for the word of God and for the testimony of
Jesus Christ.” From there, he received revelations that are still
unravelling about 2,000 years later today.
Well, ‘Prophet’ Adesina was also in the spirit earlier this week, and
he received messages for the All Progressives Congress (APC), which if
they heed properly, they will have cause to smile after the elections
next year.
Destabilisation, sabotage, subversion and treachery are legitimate
weapons in politics. The APC will have plenty of it from people already
planted in the fold by the PDP. The party has been fishing in all
kinds of waters, landing big fishes, small fishes, all disgruntled
members of the PDP, who have joined the ranks of the APC. Because
“there is no art to find the mind’s construction in the face,” agents of
destabilisation are also already in the fold. Their duty is simple:
rock the party to its foundations, sow discord, and set the members in
disarray. How the APC copes with these fifth columnists will determine
how far it goes in next year’s elections.
Again, wrangling by founders and joiners may be a mighty centrifugal
force. See the scenario in many states. Attahiru Bafarawa was a key
figure in the merger process from the Action Congress of Nigeria end.
He also had influence in All Nigeria Peoples Party and Democratic
Peoples Party. He was even a presidential aspirant in the 2011
elections on the platform of the ACN. Now Gov Aliyu Magatakarda Wamako
of Sokoto State, a sworn political enemy of Bafarawa, has joined the
APC. Like a wild horse, the latter kicked, saying over his dead body
would his former deputy governor, whom he forced to resign, become the
party leader of which he (Bafarawa) was a co-founder. The matter had
festered for months, and now, Bafarawa has gone into the PDP.
Here is the message from Patmos: let Bafarawa go. He is now a
lightweight, mere feather in the politics of Sokoto State. If he
remains bilious and grouchy against his former subordinate who upstaged
him in the political game, then he has not much to bring to the table in
APC. Politics is about permanent interests, not about permanent
friends or enemies. If Bafarawa refuses to see the larger picture, and
holds on to deep-seated animus and antipathy, then let him go. An
aching tooth is better out than in.
But even as Bafarawa left in Sokoto, I wouldn’t have canvassed the
same in Kano. Whatever it would have taken, APC should have held Ibrahim
Shekarau tight. The man is a positive influence, added value to any
political party. Shekarau is one of the brains behind the formation of
APC, just like Mohammed Buba Marwa from the Adamawa end.
True, there’s been no love lost between Shekarau and Rabiu Musa
Kwankwaso in Kano. The former had upstaged the latter from the
governor’s seat in 2003, and spent two terms in office. But in 2011,
like a typhoon, Kwankwaso swept back into office. Since then, Kano has
been polarized politically into pro-Shekarau and pro-Kwankwaso camps.
But you need the influence (and possibly the funding) that incumbent
governors can bring to bear on the process. So, APC embraced Kwankwaso
with open arms when he defected. But what do you do with Shekarau in
terms of who leads the party in Kano? Dilemma. Quandary. Puzzle.
There should have been rapprochement between Shekarau and Kwankwaso,
despite the long years of political bitterness. The leadership of APC
should have facilitated it. Kano is a big political pool, and wrong
splashes cannot be afforded from that direction. Now Shekarau has gone
into PDP.
Tufiakwa! It should never have happened. I have the
sneaky feeling that the former Kano State governor, a man I respect so
much, has made a mistake, and an egregious one at that. Shekarau is too
much principled to join a party he had always excoriated for its bad
practices. What Bafarawa lacks in political influence, Shekarau sure
has aplenty. APC should have held tight to him.
What of Marwa in Adamawa? Same scenario. The urbane former Borno
and Lagos State military governor brought verve and panache into public
service. If Nigeria was not such a self-destructive country, a land
that consumes its best people, people like Marwa should be giving
quality leadership at the centre now. Should APC then let him go?
Remember that song by King Yellowman, the reggae artist: “If you should
lose me, oh yea, you lose a good thing…” APC should not lose Marwa.
Whatever it takes to reconcile him and Gov Murtala Nyako, the party
should do. And this is straight from Patmos.
The same with Dele Belgore and Bukola Saraki in Kwara State! Belgore
ran for governor in 2011, but Saraki succeeded in installing his own
protégé in Abdulfatah Ahmed. Belgore had been in the vanguard of
opposition as symbolized then by the ACN, which became a major part of
APC, and then suddenly, Saraki and his people joined APC. About 20
lawmakers in the Kwara State House of Assembly have also defected from
the PDP to APC. Who then leads the party, the founders or joiners? The
joiners have plenty to bring to the table in terms of influence and
resources. So who does the party hand the baton of leadership to?
Another puzzle. Dilemma. But the party leadership must resolve it
amicably, making concessions here and there.
In Bayelsa State, the same scenario exists between the old members,
and supporters of former governor, Timipre Sylva. In Ondo State, Ogun
State, and many others, the party is equally being rocked by leadership
tussles. What the APC leadership at the national level does with these
pockets of discontent will go a long way in determining its fortunes (or
misfortune) at the polls next year.
Another message from the island: APC, watch the processes by which
your candidates emerge. Your adversaries are waiting for that time, and
they are already predicting that it is the time the alliance would
crumble and scatter. Can you afford to have a carryover of the tendency
in ACN, in which candidates are handpicked by the powers that be?
Never! Or the disorder in the old Congress for Progressive Change
(CPC), in which you never knew who the candidate was, even on voting
day? Never again! Who will be the presidential candidate of APC?
Muhammadu Buhari? He has not thrown his hat into the ring yet. Nuhu
Ribadu? Marwa? Kwankwaso? Rochas Okorocha? Or even the Speaker of the
House of Representatives, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, who still has one leg
in PDP? Whoever it is must emerge through a free and fair process,
transparent for all to see. The same with gubernatorial candidates,
National Assembly, state assemblies, indeed, at every level. APC must
be a true analgesic to all the headaches and body pains of the past,
caused by undemocratic tendencies in the previous parties.
Continue to fish in all waters. I know the APC has come under severe
criticism for this. The new chairman of PDP, Adamu Muazu, says they
are poachers. But I ask: if you don’t fish in PDP waters, poach in PDP
game park, where then do you do it? Mars? Wresting power from an
incumbent is never a picnic, nor tea party. The APC needs all the hands
it can get, despite the strident criticisms. There are talks about
lack of ideology, but let somebody show me that single party that has
held stubbornly to clear-cut ideology in Nigeria, and ever got into
power. Such parties only produced “the best president we never had.” And
for how long should that happen? A child gets circumcised with pains
and peppery sensations. So is the power game too. Let the APC continue
to poach, but only be careful to sift the grain for the chaff. In the
process of ingathering, moles and saboteurs will be brought in. The
onus is on the party to be able to separate the wheat from the tares
later.
Sell your programs to Nigerians. Yes, a lot of people are tired of
the PDP, they believe the party could have served the country better in
the 15 years it has held power at the centre, but they are also in the
valley of decision. A good number are sceptical, even cynical. They
say all parties, all politicians are the same, and then conclude that
the devil you know is better than the one you don’t know. So, APC, sell
yourself, and your programs to Nigerians. Time for campaigns will
come, be ready. Showcase things your governors have done, and tell us
what you will do better at the centre. Nigerians are yearning for
change, but they also want to look before they leap. They don’t want
change for change sake, they want the change that will give them a
better country, where the resources available are utilized to make life
better for the vast majority.
And then this! APC, don’t think the PDP is dead. I wrote on this
last week. When a snake is scorched, and not killed, it becomes more
venomous. That is the state of the PDP. The party has been weakened
by the crises of the past year, but it still has ample time to rally
back, with a new leadership. Don’t think PDP is dead. It is not. To
underrate the party is to be in for a big surprise. In the states, at
the federal level, it will take a big fight to dislodge the PDP. Be
ready for it.
On Saint Valentine’s Day next year, it will be a battle of love. An
old suitor and a new one will seek our hands in marriage. Who do we go
with? Of course, the one that courts us best, making us lofty promises,
and singing sweet songs into our ears, even if those songs are really
sweet nothings. But one thing is sure: we will not allow anybody to
marry us on credit again.
TheSun
We
often experience symptoms that we ignore, but shouldn’t. Why? Perhaps
because we’ve grown up in an era that insists that you do not go to the
doctor unless you’ve just about lost an arm. Even then, your momma might
tell you to just walk it off. Or that there’s only so much that the
doctor can really do, anyway. As tough and as strong as we perceive
ourselves to be, there are some symptoms that we just can’t afford to
ignore. Ever.