THE UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH OF ELUSIVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT- NIGERIA’S CENTURY OLD FAILURES AND PROSPECTS FOR A NEW NIGERIA
Protocols:
Good afternoon, chieftains and members of the Action People’s Congress.
Thanks for inviting me as your Keynote Speaker at your Unveiling of Road
Map Summit. I do not know how you decided to take this high risk of
inviting me to your gathering, knowing full well that my zeal for candor
can be generally unsettling for some people of your class and
occupation. Since you took the risk, I have assumed the liberty to
speak boldly even to your discomfort especially considering that we live
in a season of grim when our country is greatly troubled. In perilous
times like this, Truth is the absolute freedom. I shall be spurred on by
the counsel of George Orwell who in honor of truth stated that “in a
time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act”. I further
assume that if you wanted someone with the skills of deceit, it would
not be me that you would have invited to your gathering. I therefore
speak to you today not as a politician
Context and Fact are very important for
me as both a scholar and practitioner of public policy. Context is the
missing link that helps us to connect the dots between the visible and
the hidden, and between the general and the specific. Fact or Truth is
the evidence that never takes flight nor ceases to exist even where
ignored for hundred years. So my speech in content and delivery will be
hinged on context and facts.For context, nothing serves a better guide
than History. The philosopher and novelist George Santayana famously
said that “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat
it”. Winston Churchill reinforced Santayana by counselling, “Study
history, study history. In history lies all the secrets of statecraft.” I
am compelled even further to tread the path of history by our Centenary
celebration and shall therefore use – Nigeria’s political history as
the context for this speech.
The Political trajectory of Nigeria much
like her entire history is checkered. In the book, This House has
Fallen, “Nigeria was the focus of great optimism as a powerful emerging
nation that would be a showcase for democratic government”. Sadly the
optimism was frittered over the years. I shall take the excerpts from my
University of Nigeria lecture in January in this regard. “If you traced
the political history of our country since independence in 1960 and you
will better understand the horror of our faulty political foundation.
The first democratic government ushered in an independent Nigeria but
was cut short by a coup in 1966, a counter coup in 1967, civil war from
1967 to 1970, military rule from 1970 at the end of the war until
another coup in 1975, another unsuccessful coup in 1976 the then Head of
State was murdered, continued rule of the military until 1979 when a
successful political transition ushered in the second republic but it
became a democratic process that did not leave a good mark on governance
until it was cut short in 1983 by yet another military coup but the
discipline instilling but draconian regime was itself sent packing in
1985 through yet another coup.
The succeeding regime ruled from 1985
until 1993. The hallmark of that regime was procrastinated conduct of a
transition to democracy. When it finally, reluctantly started the
transition process, it regrettably went ahead to thwart the political
rights of citizens who had elected a democratic president by annulling
the elections. The regime then responded to the public disturbance and
agitation that followed by installing an interim national government
that lasted only three months following yet another military
intervention. The regime that followed was more heinous than ever
imagined possible by Nigerians until 1998 when by divine providence, it
was cut short. Never again! A new season came but it was yet one with
the military still in the saddle. That regime however surprised skeptics
when it successfully conducted a transition that ushered in democratic
governance in 1999 ending the long sixteen years of militarization of
governance that materially defines the psyche of government in Nigeria.
Cumulatively, from the time of our independence in 1960 to 1999- the
military governed for about twenty nine years while two flashes of
pseudo democracy had a little more than ten years in all. The common
theme in our extremely unstable and volatile political history was that
each regime truncation mirrored a Russian roulette with justification
for regime change being the “necessity to rescue the country from bad
governance and corruption”.
Compared to the mere six years of
1960-1966 and the even shorter four and a half years of 1979-1983, the
period of 1999 to date under democratic rule has been the longest ever
season of such political system in Nigeria. An objective assessment of
our democratic journey since the last fifteen years by May of this year,
will return the verdict that we are very much still in the nascent zone
of democracy as a political system which despite all its short comings
trump all other alternatives. Fifteen years has given us more of
civilian rule than democracy. The quality of the military/political
elite and the depth of undemocratic culture, practices and nuances have
worked to produce very disappointing results of governance to citizens.
Yet, we must temper our disappointment with the cautious sense of
accomplishment that the subordination of the military to the
constitutional will of the people of Nigeria in the 1999, 2003, 2007,
2011 elections is perhaps the very tiny ray of light in what had for
more than five decades been a canvass of political tragedies.
“Today is Independence Day. The first of
October 1960 is a date to which for two years, Nigeria has been eagerly
looking forward. At last, our great day has arrived, and Nigeria is now
indeed an independent Sovereign nation. Words cannot adequately
express my joy and pride at being the Nigerian citizen privileged to
accept from Her Royal Highness these Constitutional Instruments which
are the symbols of Nigeria’s Independence. It is a unique privilege
which I shall remember forever, and it gives me strength and courage as I
dedicate my life to the service of our country. This is a wonderful
day, and it is all the more wonderful because we have awaited it with
increasing impatience, compelled to watch one country after another
overtaking us on the road when we had so nearly reached our goal. But
now, we have acquired our rightful status, and I feel sure that history
will show that the building of our nation proceeded at the wisest pace:
it has been thorough, and Nigeria now stands well-built upon firm
foundations.”
These were the very gushing and giddy words of the first Prime Minister
of Nigeria Alhaji Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa on October 1, 1960.
According to history books, prehistoric
settlers lived in the territories that make up the area today known as
Nigeria as far back as 9000 BC. According to Wikipedia, the period of
the 15th century saw the emergence of several “early independent
kingdoms and states” that made up the British colonialized Nigeria –
Benin kingdom, Borgu kingdom, Fulani empire, Hausa kingdoms, Kanem Bornu
empire, Kwararafa kingdom, Ibibio Kingdom, Nri kingdom, Nupe kingdom,
Oyo Kingdom, Songhai empire and Warri Kingdom. Each Kingdom was composed
of dominant ethnic nationalities with unique language, custom, culture,
tradition and religion. ”
These kingdoms independently traded among themselves and with the rest
of the world especially Great Britain. It was however by 1886 through
expanded trade with the territories under the charter of the Royal Niger
Company that the mercantilist root of that influence became
established. The handover of the company’s territories to the British
Government followed in 1900 leading to the areas becoming organized as
protectorates that helped extend the great British Empire of that era.
In 1914, Nigeria was formed by combining the Northern and Southern
Protectorates and the Colony of Lagos. For administrative purposes, it
was divided into four units: the colony of Lagos, the Northern
Provinces, the Eastern Provinces and the Western Provinces.”
One could say that considering the way
Nigeria emerged it was no more than an artificial creation purely
intended to serve the administrative convenience of the reigning
colonial power. In fact, no one better conveyed this perception of
Nigeria as artificiality than Chief Obafemi Awolowo who once described
Nigeria as a “mere geographical expression”. It is common for Nigerians
across the territory in moments of deep despair at the failings of this
union of multiple diversities to loudly rue the fact that a certain Lord
Lugard and his fiancée – Ms. Shaw -were the “creators” of Nigeria.
The forty six years that followed the
creation of Nigeria until her independence in 1960, saw varying degrees
of mutation in the relationship between Britain and the people of the
territory. The journey of governance commenced among the three dominant
regions that made up the Nigerian territory- namely the North, the West
and the East. There were understandably, deep mistrusts and suspicions
among the ethnic groups with each one seeking to advance their own cause
and interest but their leaders managed to forge a united front in the
struggle to attain self-government. Their successive negotiations and
constitution building processes among them and acting jointly, with
colonial Britain- helped to achieve one of the most anticipated
political independence of a country in Africa. It culminated in the
successful agitation for self-government on a representative and
ultimately federal basis. The great Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe who was first
the Governor General at independence in 1960 and later ceremonial
President when in 1963 we became a Republic, succinctly captured that
feat of the Nationalists in gaining independence.
He wrote in 1966 that, “We talked the
Colonial Office into accepting our challenges for the demerits and
merits of our case for self-government. After six constitutional
conferences in 1953, 1954, 1957, 1958, 1959, and 1960, Great Britain
conceded to us the right to assert our political independence as from
October 1, 1960. None of the Nigerian political parties ever adopted
violent means to gain our political freedom and we are happy to claim
that not a drop of British or Nigerian blood was shed in the course of
our national struggle for our place in the sun. This historical fact
enabled me to state publicly in Nigeria that Her Majesty’s Government
has presented self-government to us on a platter of gold.”
Ladies and gentlemen, the Great Zik of
Africa who had profound influence in the philosophy of life of late
Chief Ben Nwazojie whose family has gathered us- had great hopes that
the successful struggle for independence would bequeath to us as a
people; “our place in the sun”. And yet, even though that entity
created in 1914 will become one Century years old in the next three
months and had only a few days ago became a relatively old country of
fifty three years, its present state is anything but sunny for majority
of her citizens. For the fact is that whether of the North, South, East
or West of the present day Nigerian territory we know that most
Nigerians feel but a deep sense of disappointment at what has become of
the dream that our founding fathers dared to imagine was possible. That
deep internal threats to Nigeria’s territorial integrity remain part of
core issues of our polity in 2013 menacingly brings into sharp focus the
wide gulf between what it means to be a country as different from the
higher order state of being a nation.
Thus, the phrase, “an independent
Sovereign nation” that Sir Tafawa Balewa used in describing Nigeria in
his sweet poetry of a speech at independence remains under doubtful
scrutiny and is constantly under threat through various cycles of our
political history. For if there is one construct that remains the sticky
point in our COUNTRY today, it is whether indeed there is yet a NATION
called Nigeria? Or put differently, what happened to the COUNTRY that
held so much promise on that morning of October 1, 1960? After all,
nothing makes the point of the failure to successfully transition from
country to nation than the fact that a only week ago, the current
government as a response to heightened socio-political tensions in the
land announced yet another National Dialogue that is “aimed at
realistically examining and genuinely resolving, longstanding
impediments to our cohesion and harmonious development as a truly united
Nation”.
What happened? How come a country which
at independence was enthusiastically described by our first leader as an
independent sovereign nation is at fifty three years hosting another
“national conversation” to determine whether it is a worthy union for
everyone? Was it also not only a few years ago in 2006 that the
administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo had hosted as similar
gathering? Who were the people that discussed at that time and what did
they resolve? What seems to be the intractable issue that almost every
administration –military and civilian alike- have not managed to settle
on whether we do indeed have a common destiny or not? How come that
despite the oft expressed “sincere intent” of each cycle of ruling class
(mark my choice of word as distinct from leadership); that each hosted
some sort of national dialogue, conference, conversation, forum etc.
(choose your pick), we are nowhere closer today to our destination of
nationhood. To imagine that our founding fathers mistakenly assumed that
we became a nation because the various nationalities worked
collaboratively to secure independence from a common external “foe” in
1960? How could it be that this journey has thus far turned out
agonizing for almost every one of us?
Even following the most traumatic civil
war that ended in 1970, the reemergence as one country provided a
context to rally the entire citizenry to build from country to nation.
Sadly, that was a missed opportunity. Is it therefore not heartrending
that the present state of our country nearly questions our status as a
Country? The pain of this truism is that we are in 2014 faced with
exactly the same types of ethnic issues that dotted our union in the
60s. How was it that for over fifty three years, we never went beyond
the amalgamation process to becoming a Country and subsequently
transforming into a Nation? The simple answer to the lamentation and
question is that elite failure happened to Nigeria! A little more
political history following the events of October 1, 1960 will help
clarify my answer, simple as it may sound to those who thrive in
confounding complexity.
The Elite of every successful society
always form the nucleus of citizens with the prerequisite education,
ethics and capabilities operating in the political sphere and the public
service, providing the great ideas to build the nation and possessing
the moral rectitude to always act in the public interest. Access to
quality Education ensures that the elite group evolves constantly in
every society. For as long as nations have public education systems that
function, the poorest of their citizens is guaranteed to move up the
ladder and someday emerge as a member of the elite class through
academic hard work, strenuous effort and ultimate success at the higher
levels of education.
For every society that has succeeded
therefore, it has taken such progressively evolving elite class to
identify the problems, forge the political systems and processes,
soundly articulate a rallying vision and use sound Policies and
effective and efficient prioritisation of investments (both public and
private) and requisite actions to over time build those strong
institutions that outlive the best of charismatic and transformative
individuals. But it always does start with quality leadership in the
public space investing in a sustained manner for lasting institutions to
eventually emerge over time. Institutions do not just happen. In the
same manner, nations do not just happen out of multi-ethnic countries.
The globally adopted definition of a
country is “ An independent State or country must meet certain metrics
all of which we did on that date:
• Has space or territory which has internationally recognized boundaries (boundary disputes are OK).
• Has people who live there on an ongoing basis.
• Has economic activity and an organized economy. A country regulates foreign and domestic trade and issues money.
• Has the power of social engineering, such as education.
• Has a transportation system for moving goods and people.
• Has a government which provides public services and police power.
• Has sovereignty. No other State should have power over the country’s territory.
• Has external recognition. A country has been “voted into the club” by other countries.
Sadly, Nigeria came to simply equate our
statehood with nationhood when our founding fathers used those terms
almost interchangeably forgetting that a State is not always necessarily
a Nation. True, we had becoming a self-governing political entity that
negotiated a federal structure that was cognizant of the near autonomy
of each of its constituting group of people, but although an
independent; we were not and have never acted like a Nation!
Nations are “culturally homogeneous
groups of people, larger than a single tribe or community, who shares a
common language, institutions, religion, and historical experience.”
Each of our then three dominant groups though having their own internal
multiple sub-groups and diversities to resolve still saw themselves as
stand-alone nations. However, once it related to the territorial
construct known as Nigeria that it shares with the other two groups, no
group particularly acted as though the union had forged a “Nigerian
nationhood” in that broader sense. Hence, although we continued to be a
Country, we however did not attain to the definition of a nation which
is “a tightly-knit group of people which share a common culture”. The
people of a nation generally share a common national identity, and part
of nation-building is the building of that common identity. There were
so many fundamental issues that our country which is unlike France of
Germany or even Egypt needed to resolve among its multiple divides if it
wished to make that profound jump from country to Nation in order to
attain the status of a nation-state.
The Elite in those instances are
required to lead the rest of the people in a deliberative process of
nation building- of forging that common identity that all will defend.
It is the visionary power of the elite to move a people of diversity
beyond the lowest common denominator of mere citizens of one country
into a nation of people that makes the United States to stand out as a
model multi-cultural society. Hence, even “with its multicultural
society, the United States is also referred to as a nation-state because
of the shared American “culture.” Some people may of course dismiss
this crave for evolution from country into a nation and say it does not
matter. For those ones, I recall the wise words of Carolyn Stephenson, a
Professor of Political Science at the Univ. of Hawaii-Manoa. Her words
could have been written with our country in mind. Professor Stephenson
states that “ Nation-building matters to intractable conflict because of
the theory that a strong state is necessary in order to provide
security, that the building of an integrated national community is
important in the building of a state, and that there may be social and
economic prerequisites or co-requisites to the building of an integrated
national community” Simply put, if a people of diversity in a country
truly wish to succeed, they must forge a shared vision and values to
realize their goal.
Our failure to immediately use the early
days of independence to commence the nation building process is what I
consider the biggest missed opportunity in the history of Nigeria. It is
the reason as Professor Stephenson asserts, we find ourselves in
“cyclical intractable conflict” So, it was not surprising that shortly
after the novelty of our political independence wore off the troubling
underbelly of our nascent democracy was revealed in the rather prescient
reading of the situation at that time by the Central Intelligence
Agency of the United States in one of its memorandum of 1966. It wrote
“Africa’s most populous country (population estimated at 48 million) is
in the throes of a highly complex internal crisis rooted in its
artificial origin as a British dependency containing over 250 diverse
and often antagonistic tribal groups. The present crisis started” with
Nigerian independence in 1960, but the federated parliament hid “serious
internal strains. It has been in an acute stage since last January when
a military coup d’état destroyed the constitutional regime bequeathed
by the British and upset the underlying tribal and regional power
relationships. At stake now are the most fundamental questions which can
be raised about a country, beginning with whether it will survive as a
single viable entity. The situation is uncertain, with Nigeria,……is
sliding downhill faster and faster, with less and less chance unity and
stability. Unless present army leaders and contending tribal elements
soon reach agreement on a new basis for association and take some
effective measures to halt a seriously deteriorating security situation,
there will be increasing internal turmoil, possibly including civil
war”.
The failure to build a nation out of the
country it was bequeathed did in fact change the course of Nigeria’s
history. It meant that our foundling political elite could not speedily
and “sincerely act” on the lofty ideals. The nation building process
could have benefitted from their nationalist campaign for independence
when they had successfully united against a common “enemy” and brought
us our independence. Instead, our political elite turned backward on the
supposed “independent sovereign nation” and resorted to lethal
ethnicity in playing a brand of politics mostly devoid of altruism. So
much so was this prevalent character of the political elite across board
that they collectively failed to retrace their steps from the
precipitous slide. It was within this context of elite failure that the
1966 military coup struck unleashing a canvass of governance
instability that only abated in 1999 when the fourth Republic commenced
with the successful democratic transition currently running for the last
fourteen years.
No wonder, empirical evidence points to
poor governance –especially corruption as the biggest obstacle to the
development of Nigeria. Understanding the cancerous impact of
understand how come a country with the potentials hardly available to
more than other one third nations of the world has remained at the
bottom of socio economic ladder as a laggard. Economic growth rate and
ultimate development of nations are determined by a number of factors
that range from sound policies, effective and efficient public and
private investments and strong institutions. Economic evidence
throughout numerous researches proves that one key variable that
determines how fast nations outgrow others is the speed of accumulation
of human capital especially through science and technology education.
No wonder for these same countries by 2011- South Korea of fifty
million people has a GDP of $1.12trillion, Brazil of one hundred and
ninety six million has $2.48 trillion; Malaysia of twenty eight million
people has $278.6Billion; Chile of seventeen million people has
$248.59Billion; Singapore of five million people has $318.7 Billion.
Meanwhile with our population of 165 million people we make boasts with
a GDP of $235.92 Billion- completely way off the mark that we could
have produced if we made a better set of development choices.
More dramatic is that this wide gap
between these nations and Nigeria was not always the case as some
relevant data at the time of our independence reveal. In 1960 the GDP
per capita of all these countries were not starkly different from that
of Nigeria- two were below $200, two were a little above $300 and one
was slightly above $500 while that of Nigeria was just about $100. For
citizens, these differentials are not mere economic data. Meanwhile by
2011, the range for all five grew exponentially with Singapore at nearly
$50,000, South Korea at $22,000, Malaysia at $10,000, Brazil at $13,000
and Chile at $14,000. Our own paltry $1500 income per capita helps
drive home the point that we have been left behind many times over by
every one of these other countries. How did these nations steer and stir
their people to achieve such outstanding economic performance over the
last five decades? There is hardly a basis for comparing the larger
population of our citizens clustered within the poverty bracket with the
majority citizens of Singapore fortunate to have upper middle income
standard of living.
Again, how did this happen? What
happened to Nigeria? Why did we get left behind? How did these nations
become productively wealthy over the last fifty three years while
Nigeria stagnated? How did majority of the citizens of these nations
join the upper middle class while more Nigerians retrogressed into
poverty? There are usually as many different answers to these sets of
questions as there are respondents on the reasons we fell terribly
behind. Some say, it is our tropical geography, yet economic research
shows it has not prevented other countries like China, Australia, Chile
and Brazil for example with similar conditions from breaking through
economically. Others say it is size, but China and India are bigger, and
yet in the last thirty and twenty years have grown double digit and
continue to out- grow the rest of the world at this time of global
economic crisis. Furthermore, being small has not necessarily conferred
any special advantages to so many other countries with small population
yet similarly battling with the development process like we are.
Some others say it is our culture but
like a political economist posited “European countries with different
sorts of cultures, Protestant and Catholic alike that have grown rich.
Secondly, different countries within the same broad cultures have
performed very differently in economic terms, such as the two Koreas in
the post-war era. Moreover, individual countries have changed their
economic trajectories even though “their cultures didn’t miraculously
change.” How about those who plead our multiethnic nationalities as the
constraint but fail to see that the United States of America happens to
be one nation with even more disparate ethnic nationalities than Nigeria
and yet it leads the global economy! As for those who say it is the
adverse impact of colonialism, were Singapore, Malaysia and even parts
of China like Hong Kong not similarly conquered and dominated by
colonialists?
That Nigeria is a paradox of the kind of
wealth that breeds penury is as widely known as the fact that the world
considers us a poster nation for poor governance wealth from natural
resources. The trend of Nigeria’s population in poverty since 1980 to
2010 for example suggests that the more we earned from oil, the larger
the population of poor citizens : 17.1 million 1980, 34.5million in
1985, 39.2million in 1992, 67.1million in 1996, 68.7million in 2004 and
112.47 million in 2010! This sadly means that you are children of a
nation blessed with abundance of ironies.
Resource wealth has tragically reduced your nation- my nation- to a mere
parable of prodigality. Nothing undignifies nations and their citizens
like self-inflicted failure.
Our abundance of oil, people and
geography should have worked favorably and placed us on the top echelons
of the global economic ladder by now. After all, basic economic
evidence shows that abundance of natural resources can by itself
increase the income levels of citizens even if it does not increase
their productivity. For example, as Professor Collier a renowned
economist who has focused on the sector stated in a recent academic work
countries that have enormously valuable natural resources are likely to
have high living standards on a sustainable basis by simply replacing
some of the extracted resources with financial assets held abroad.
Disappointedly, even that choice eluded our governing class who through
the decades has spent more time quarreling over their share of the oil
“national cake” than they have spent thinking of how to make it benefit
the entire populace.
The coup of 1966 anchored its
justification on the failure of the political class to provide good
governance. In the exact word of the leader of the coup; “Our enemies
are the political profiteers, the swindlers, the men in high and low
places that seek bribes and demand 10 percent; those that seek to keep
the country divided permanently so that they can remain in office as
ministers or VIPs at least, the tribalists, the nepotists, those that
make the country look big for nothing before international circles,
those that have corrupted our society and put the Nigerian political
calendar back by their words and deeds.”
In effect, what we today confront as
systemic corruption only metamorphosed to gigantic proportion through
the over nearly fifty decades of the speech given to justify the first
truncation of the will of the people for democratic governance. As a
matter of fact, anyone who will find and read all the justification
statements for coups and the inauguration statements for democratically
elected governments in our fifty three years of being a country will
assume that each group merely modified the speech of their predecessors.
Perhaps the only differences were the locations of the punctuation
marks, the commas, the semi colons and the full stops in each statement
that followed this excerpt from the statement of 1966.
The substance is the same – indignation
at the grand corruption that has persistently undermined the
effectiveness of governance since our political independence. The
instructive feature of the dramatis personae that made up the military
and political elite class at various times is their uncanny national
spread and the unity of purpose they managed and have continued to
manage to forge among them in the ignoble business of committing grand
larceny against the country. Ethnicity was hardly and still is not a
constraining factor once the political elite of Nigeria- whether from
the North, South, East and West gather at the altar of corruption to
execute their unifying purpose of “transactions”. They are united in
“extracting” from Nigeria because it does appear in the minds that the
country can never move beyond a mere artificial political construct.
Of all the obstacles to our greatness,
there were two on which citizens irrespective of their affiliations
seemed to have forged a consensus as the priority agenda issues for
their governments to mobilize every sector, level and individual; to
unite, fight and defeat. The two issues are systemic corruption and
pernicious poverty. However, in the last one year with escalations in
insecurity wherein we are now faced with more immediate life threatening
scourge of terrorism within our land those two priorities are overtaken
in ranking. That we now experience regular terrorist killing of the
innocent in our land has pushed the twin issues of poverty and
corruption to second and third priorities of citizens. These recent
killings have joined with the civil war of the 60s to pollute Nigeria
with fresh blood of our children- our daughters and sons, the blood of
our women, the blood of our men, the blood of our young and the blood of
our old.
Citizens who had assumed that the worst
possible was the many decades of being trapped in intergenerational
poverty in an ironically “oil wealthy” are now exposed to deadlier acts
of terrorism. Terrorists became emboldened by the absence of our
political class across the entire spectrum of political leadership who
decided to “play their normal politics” with the blood of the poor. The
blood soaked land is convulsing. Do we not hear the cries especially of
the young children and women killed for a cause they know nothing about?
I read the fear laden articles and tweets of many young Nigerians
asking “when this carnage will end?” I hear them lash out angrily that
it is the cumulative failure of older generations of us all in this
gathering that is bequeathing to them- a country so broken and mortally
bruised that again we need divine intervention to heal the land and
people.
Is it therefore not unconscionable that
in the over nearly three years of rising trend of terrorist attacks
against whole communities in the central and north eastern states of
Nigeria where our kith and kin have regularly been slaughtered in cold
blood; the milk of empathy has not yet flowed from our Elders in the
Land in the entire political spectrum to suspend “transactional
politicking” and build a united front against this newest common enemy?
Is it not unconscionable that despite the massive public resources
committed to security spending, the government has failed to inspire
confidence in communities and the large public that feel excluded from
the more secured lives of the political elite?
In shock, Nigerians have wondered
whether our political class which carries on with politicking to
“capture or retain power” is comfortable to govern dead communities. Is
it not time for all of our political leaders to pay that utmost
sacrifice of leadership- lay down their personal gain for the good of
the people they wish to lead. Leadership is not the office, the title,
the authority, the mansion one occupies. Leadership is the sacrifice
offered that others may thrive. There are three grades of leadership-
Transactional, Transformational and Transcendental leadership. What our
nation asks all of you irrespective of the acronyms that thread together
to make you a political party in this land today, is that you must
immediately “transcend” and mobilize all of Nigerians against the
immediate common enemies killing our own within our territory.
Your act of transcendental leadership
across your various divides in Nigerian politics of today, will not only
end this fatal insecurity in our country, but will actually start the
process of healing of land and the people. The healing of our land and
people will in turn begin the process of rebuilding the eroded social
capital that we must have for nation building process. John Jacob
Gardener a professor of Leadership defines Transcendental Leadership as
follows: “A new metaphor, transcendent leadership, answers a planetary
call for a governance process which is more inclusive, more trusting,
more sharing of information, more meaningfully involving associates or
constituents, more collective decision making through dialogue and group
consent processes, more nurturance and celebration of creative and
divergent thinking and a willingness to serve the will of the collective
consciousness as determined by the group – in essence, a leadership of
service above self” Nothing in any political party manifesto in our
present Nigeria realizes how fundamental it is to first accomplish this
at this time in country.
Economic research has proven that there
can be no development without peace. The underperformance of our country
as a result of the volatility of regime changes and truncation of
democracy direly cost us the opportunity to build vibrant institutions,
to pursue on a sustained basis sound macroeconomic, microeconomic and
structural policies and finally to implement quality, effective and
efficient public and private investment like other nations. Every
country is fundamentally composed of three sectors- the public sector or
government, the private sector or business and civil society. Worse
than political instability however is the growing sense of our current
reality that we are “at war”. In a season of war, ladies and gentlemen,
no road map for economic development is viable- no matter how sound its
articulation. I advise that 2014 offers all political actors in Nigeria,
the opportunity to immediately unite and decisively take our country
back from terrorists. This is my most important economic message for
your gathering. As the leading opposition party in the country, your
leadership must be visible in demonstrating a commitment to reaching out
to the Government to commence a united fight to preserve the lives of
all citizens.
Of all the obstacles to our greatness,
there were two on which citizens irrespective of their affiliations
seemed to have forged a consensus as the priority agenda issues for
their governments to mobilize every sector, level and individual; to
unite, fight and defeat. The two issues are systemic corruption and
pernicious poverty. However, in the last one year with escalations in
insecurity wherein we are now faced with more immediate life threatening
scourge of terrorism within our land those two priorities are overtaken
in ranking. That we now experience regular terrorist killing of the
innocent in our land has pushed the twin issues of poverty and
corruption to second and third priorities of citizens. These recent
killings have joined with the civil war of the 60s to pollute Nigeria
with fresh blood of our children- our daughters and sons, the blood of
our women, the blood of our men, the blood of our young and the blood of
our old.
Citizens who had assumed that the worst
possible was the many decades of being trapped in intergenerational
poverty in an ironically “oil wealthy” are now exposed to deadlier acts
of terrorism. Terrorists became emboldened by the absence of our
political class across the entire spectrum of political leadership who
decided to “play their normal politics” with the blood of the poor. The
blood soaked land is convulsing. Do we not hear the cries especially of
the young children and women killed for a cause they know nothing about?
I read the fear laden articles and tweets of many young Nigerians
asking “when this carnage will end?” I hear them lash out angrily that
it is the cumulative failure of older generations of us all in this
gathering that is bequeathing to them- a country so broken and mortally
bruised that again we need divine intervention to heal the land and
people.
Is it therefore not unconscionable that
in the over nearly three years of rising trend of terrorist attacks
against whole communities in the central and north eastern states of
Nigeria where our kith and kin have regularly been slaughtered in cold
blood; the milk of empathy has not yet flowed from our Elders in the
Land in the entire political spectrum to suspend “transactional
politicking” and build a united front against this newest common enemy?
Is it not unconscionable that despite the massive public resources
committed to security spending, the government has failed to inspire
confidence in communities and the large public that feel excluded from
the more secured lives of the political elite? In shock, Nigerians have
wondered whether our political class which carries on with politicking
to “capture or retain power” is comfortable to govern dead communities.
Is it not time for all of our political leaders to pay that utmost
sacrifice of leadership- lay down their personal gain for the good of
the people they wish to lead. Leadership is not the office, the title,
the authority, the mansion one occupies. Leadership is the sacrifice
offered that others may thrive. There are three grades of leadership-
Transactional, Transformational and Transcendental leadership. What our
nation asks all of you irrespective of the acronyms that thread together
to make you a political party in this land today, is that you must
immediately “transcend” and mobilize all of Nigerians against the
immediate common enemies killing our own within our territory.
Your act of transcendental leadership
across your various divides in Nigerian politics of today, will not only
end this fatal insecurity in our country, but will actually start the
process of healing of land and the people. The healing of our land and
people will in turn begin the process of rebuilding the eroded social
capital that we must have for nation building process. John Jacob
Gardener a professor of Leadership defines Transcendental Leadership as
follows: “A new metaphor, transcendent leadership, answers a planetary
call for a governance process which is more inclusive, more trusting,
more sharing of information, more meaningfully involving associates or
constituents, more collective decision making through dialogue and group
consent processes, more nurturance and celebration of creative and
divergent thinking and a willingness to serve the will of the collective
consciousness as determined by the group – in essence, a leadership of
service above self” Nothing in any political party manifesto in our
present Nigeria realizes how fundamental it is to first accomplish this
at this time in country.
Economic research has proven that there
can be no development without peace. The underperformance of our country
as a result of the volatility of regime changes and truncation of
democracy direly cost us the opportunity to build vibrant institutions,
to pursue on a sustained basis sound macroeconomic, microeconomic and
structural policies and finally to implement quality, effective and
efficient public and private investment like other nations. Worse than
political instability however is the growing sense of our current
reality that we are “at war”. In a season of war, ladies and gentlemen,
no road map for economic development is viable- no matter how sound its
articulation. I advise that 2014 offers all political actors in Nigeria,
the opportunity to immediately unite and decisively take our country
back from terrorists. This is my most important economic message for
your gathering. As the leading opposition party in the country, your
leadership must be visible in demonstrating a commitment to reaching out
to the Government to commence a united fight to preserve the lives of
all citizens.
On the twin enemies of corruption and
poverty, those among us who still need proof to believe that indeed the
two severest maladies from which Nigeria must heal are poverty and poor
governance must not have seen the 2013 Global Corruption Barometer 2013.
Poverty and corruption are two things that rob Nigerians of their
dignity; Poverty deprives one of the basic services they need in order
to preserve their self-dignity. Poor governance on the other hand is
what poverty helps breed.
Thus, academic research shows that
countries which have tended to poor governance end delivering not
delivering the basic social services that citizens need in order to lift
themselves out of poverty and where they do at all, it is too little
and too poor a quality to make a difference. It is the capacity to
constantly deliver equality of opportunities for better quality of life
to all citizens that distinguishes one government from another.
Throughout our fifty three years of history following our independence
in 1960, we sadly have not recorded one stellar record of performance in
this regard by any government. Today, our 69% poor in the land which in
real number is over 100 million of citizens trapped in poverty is the
key scorecard of our five decades of failure.
When asked by citizens why they think
they have been constantly failed by their governments, they mostly
respond that the failure of the state to effectively function is
corruption. This much they said to Transparency International which
invests heavily in surveys around the world. The result of the most
recent survey, tagged ‘Global Corruption Barometer 2013?, (the
biggest-ever public opinion survey on corruption) was recently released
all over the world. It showed that 75 per cent of Nigerians say the
government’s effort at fighting corruption is ineffective. Only 14 per
cent of those surveyed say the government’s effort is achieving results.
Also, 94 per cent of Nigerians think corruption is a problem with 78
per cent saying it is a serious problem.
Over the past 12 months, the report
says, 81 per cent of Nigerians say they have given a bribe to the
police, 30 per cent of those surveyed say they have paid a bribe for
education services, 29 per cent have given a bribe to the registry and
permit services, same for utilities, and 24 per cent have given a bribe
to the judiciary. The survey shows that 22 per cent of Nigerians have
paid a bribe to tax revenue, 17 per cent to land services and 9 per cent
has paid a bribe for medical and health services. Transparency
International had last year rated Nigeria as the 35th most corrupt
country in the world. Whether we choose to accept it or not, we are a
country engulfed in systemic and endemic corruption with its attendant
cancerous – wasting away, corrosive effect- on what is legendarily
called our “huge potentials”.
Take the natural resources sector to
which we have willingly and disastrously mortgaged our lives to as a
result of failure of leadership to embrace hard work, effort and
productivity as national values. Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil
exporter, and the world’s 10th largest oil producer, accounting for more
than 2.2 million barrels a day in 2011. Oil revenues totaled $50.3
billion in 2011 and generated more than 70 percent of government
revenues. However, for a sector that sadly determines our rise and fall
in the last fifty three years, Nigeria’s Performance on the Resource
Governance Index (carried out by the global NGO- Revenue Watch
Institute of the Open Society Foundations) – Nigeria received a “weak”
score of 42, ranking 40th out of 58 countries.
We stood out among the 80% of countries
which fail to achieve good governance in their extractive sectors. The
insalubrious performance of this dominant revenue source seems to be one
we have decided to wear elegantly with a mindset that refuses to
embrace the kind of fundamental change that will set the nation free. A
read of the now famous in the breach, PIB shows that we have refused to
surrender and subordinate the huge power of discretion exercised by the
President in all matters concerning oil since the last many decades.
Surely, for what we know of the huge benefits of transparency and
competition it does indeed stir the minds of those that have no interest
in oil blocks but who care for the maximization of value for the
aggregate social good of Nigeria that we walk the provisions of our
NEITI law.
The pervasive hold over our economy by
oil shows up in everything. In our Sovereign credit rating recently,
poor governance, low per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and reserve
cover were identified as Nigeria’s biggest challenge to joining other
Emerging Markets (EMs) according to Richard Fox of Fitch Ratings.
According to him, these areas represent Nigeria’s biggest challenge to
improving its rating, as highlighted in Fitch’s previous research. Of
the three, reserve cover is the most susceptible to rapid improvement,
particularly at current high oil prices. This is because although at
that time of his comment, Nigeria’s reserves had risen by around $2
billion they are not rising as fast as in the majority of big oil
exporters”. Comparisons always help convey these kinds of information
better.
During the period, 2009 to 2011 Algeria
expanded her savings from current oil boom by at least 30% to build up
its reserve and invest in critical infrastructure. The new comer Angola
nearly doubled its reserve while simultaneously implementing a huge
public investment program to build diversity of critical infrastructure.
Sadly, whether it is building up reserves/saving or in building
critical infrastructure and human capital our own trend is in the
reverse. For even though crude price rose or has held steady at
different time, the quality of governance continues to hobble our
capacity to strike out onto the path of success.
WHAT PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE THEN?
In what and whom do I place my confidence that a New Nigeria will
emerge? What is it that engenders my confidence that our five decades of
failure is not sustainable: First is the rising crescendo of
dissatisfaction with the concept of Failure by the over 50% percent of
our population that are young. That daily the young people of Nigeria-
educated or not are anxious to path ways with Failure is a source of
optimism.
Today, more than 40% of our young people
may be unemployed and requiring a major intervention that matches
skills with economic structural change but they represent strength for
any leadership that “transcends” in the way it allocates public
resources to priorities. They insist by the words and action that they
know we can do better than we have done since our independence. The
Women who constituting about 50% of our population are by the records of
present accomplishment, the most visible secret weapons of our
economic, social and political development. The entrepreneurial and
“can do” spirit of just these two groups- the spirit that seeks to
compete even with the rest in the world by first conquering the
uncertain and disabling context in which it operates is emerging as the
counter cultural shock to an elite class that entrenched contemptible
wealth based on ignoble ease as a national creed.
The return of the values of hard work
and the reward of creativity and innovation are the New Normal that
Citizens want to engage their governments on. Citizens question the
things and values we reward. They question the perverse incentive that
rewards abhorrent behaviour while punishing what is right. They are
perplexed when they watch the elite class destroy the potency of
sanctions regime in every just society by acts that fail to demand the
cost of bad behaviour from big offenders . Citizens wish to unleash
their talents and be facilitated by a capable and service oriented
public service to identify new sources of growth forcing the
diversification rhetoric into reality finally. We must think through how
to expand the revenue base of the country and manage it efficiently.
Nigeria’s revenue cannot cater for the size of the population that we
have and we seek to exploit other creative and natural endowments of
nature which primarily is our huge population of people with diverse
capabilities.
The generation of human capital through
education- access to quality basic, tertiary education expanded and well
costed with access for the poor and entrepreneurship education relevant
to the needs of the economy is priority agenda for a country that has
grown over more then a decade now without significant structural change.
The structural transformation that focuses on growing indigenous
enterprise and deliberatively removing obstacles on the path to economic
growth for the women and the young with ideas is what a results
oriented government owes Citizens. According to data from the World
Bank, it is clear that 74% of our revenue comes from non-oil (mainly
agricultural exports) as at 1970. We have sadly reversed that suffering
the pernicious effect of oil, as currently oil account for 74% of gross
national revenue reversing the trend. While Nigeria exported 502 Metric
tons of groundnut in 1961 which was 42% of global production as at that
time, we currently export almost nothing with the pyramids now invented
in stories told to our children.
Citizens are redefining what true
attributes of leadership are by demanding that those who shall lead must
be all possessing of – competency, character, competency and capacity.
Neither of the three can substitute for the other, The political and
technocratic class have no choice but to commit to redeeming our public
institutions and the human resources that run them. The redemption
starts with a true commitment to addressing today’s egregious cost of s
the mantra of today’s citizens.
Citizens want to see real commitment to
addressing the egregious cost of governance that constitutes massive
opportunity cost for equitable economic development that benefits the
larger number of citizens currently excluded from the benefits of the
growth of the last fourteen years of return to democracy. Citizens
associate our meagre revenue which pales when compared to our
prospective peers known as MINT, with wastes, gross inefficiency and
corruption. Currently, we have N1.7tn paid out of salaries, N721bn for
debt servicing and other recurrent items which puts our capital
expenditure around N1.1tn. How then do we expand the economy, build the
modern infrastructure if for every N100 that we spend in actual terms,
over N80 goes to recurrent items. Those are the issues which to engage
leadership on resolving.
Citizens can now better link public
resources and results in their outcry for value-for-money and in the
exercise of their right to demand for accountability. They know that our
power problems all these years are not merely technical- it is
governance failure. Our transportation problem are not technical, it was
governance failure. Our poor production and productivity in agriculture
is not merely technical, it is governance failure. They know that our
health and education and over all underperformance in humans development
score are not merely technical, it is due to governance failure.
It cost $148bn dollars in todays value
to rebuild Europe after the World War II. This is less than half of the
funds that was attributed to have been stolen from Nigeria since
independence. The expense of such funds transformed the manufacturing,
service industry and competitive factors of Europe. It cost $2bn ($349bn
in todays value) to rebuild Japan after the nuclear attack. By
conservative estimate, our country has earned more than $600billion in
the last five decades and yet can only boast of a United Nations Human
Development Index score of .4 out of 1 proximate to that of Chad and
maternal mortality rate similar to that of Afghanistan! Nothing reveals
the depth of our failures than such performance indicators considering
the vastly greater possibilities that we have been bestowed.
Above all, and finally, Citizens now
seek to fully participation and make demands for democratic
accountability- they are not afraid to scrutinise all public
institutions and to demand better results of governance. The
unwillingness of any group of political elite to understand this
emerging power of the Office of the Citizen can only be a loss to the
former and yet another missed opportunity added to our canvass of
political tragedies……. But God forbid!
Obiageli (Oby) Ezekwesili
Keynote Speaker
APC SUMMIT, Abuja- March 6th 2014
