General Muhammadu Buhari
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As parties plot strategies to maintain regional strongholds
By Chuks Okocha
Though, formal campaigns for next year’s general election are yet to
begin, the race for the presidential tickets of the major political
parties is certainly hotting up. The parties are also exploring possible
permutations that would give them political advantage in the various
geopolitical zones.
While President Goodluck Jonathan may not have any strong challenger
for the Peoples Democratic Party presidential ticket, in the All
Progressives Congress, it looks set to be a four horse race between
former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari; former Vice President
Atiku Abubakar; former governor of Kwara State, Senator Bukola Saraki;
and Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. Each of the aspirants has some
things going for him in the race, and downsides, too.
This is inspite of the fact that Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha,
yesterday declared his intention to run for the presidency on the
platform of the party and newspaper publisher, Sam Nda-Isaiah, has been
holding consultations about his presidential aspiration.
Buhari, a native of Daura in Katsina State, ran unsuccessfully for the
presidential office in the 2003, 2007, and 2011 general elections. He
has a strong grassroots support in the North, and across the country.
Buhari is famous for an impressive record of honesty and a tough
anticorruption stance. He is generally seen as the foremost contender
for the APC presidential ticket.
The modified direct primaries approved on August 21 by the national
leadership of APC for the choice of the party’s presidential candidate,
beginning October, also appears to put the former Head of State in pole
position. The system, which will involve about 300, 000 party members
chosen from the ward, local government, and national levels voting to
elect the presidential candidate, is hailed for its ability to reduce
the influence of moneybags.
But, Buhari, a Muslim, is criticised, especially, in the South and
among the country’s Christian population, for his alleged strong
religious views. He is also believed to lack the wherewithal to finance
an effective campaign and maintain strong political structures in the
different states of the country. At 72, it is thought in some quarters
that Buhari may not have the energy and drive to effectively lead a
large and diverse country like Nigeria.
Atiku, 68, is from Adamawa State. He was presidential candidate of
Action Congress in the 2007 election. Ahead of the 2011 general
election, he was consensus candidate of the Northern Political Leaders
Forum and contested unsuccessfully against Jonathan for the PDP
presidential ticket. He also contested the presidential primaries of the
now defunct Social Democratic Party in 1993 and placed third after
Moshood Abiola and Babagana Kingibe.
The former vice president maintains robust political structures across
the country and he is believed to have cross-party sympathy. Atiku is
thought to have a huge war chest for campaigns and maintenance of his
structures. He runs a media office that is widely adjudged to be the
most vigorous in the country at the moment. His wide political network
fits perfectly into the modified direct primaries approach adopted by
APC for the election of its presidential candidate.
However, Atiku does not seem to have strong grassroots popularity. The
October 11 governorship bye-election in his native Adamawa State may
also be a hurdle before Atiku, as sources within APC say it may be taken
as a gauge of his popularity and strength in his home state and, thus,
his capacity to effectively hold the party’s presidential ticket.
Saraki, a native of Kwara State, is a medical doctor and senator. He
successfully led the Nigeria Governors’ Forum as governor of Kwara
State.
Saraki comes from a strong political background and he, apparently,
leveraged his position as NGF chairman to make a lot of contacts across
the country. He has a good control of APC in his state, and the party,
the ruling party in the state, has a big chance of retaining control of
the state in the next general election, which stands Saraki in good
stead in the presidential race. Saraki, 52, also has age on his side.
But Saraki’s North-central origin may not count in his favour in the
North, as most people in the region may likely prefer someone from the
North-west or North-east.
Kwankwaso, 58, has a strong experience in the civil service and
politics. He was the deputy speaker of the House of Representatives in
1992 and delegate to the Constitutional Conference in 1994. The former
defence minister swept to power in 2011 with a strong political ideology
anchored on the Kwankwasiyya Movement, eight years after losing the
governorship seat to Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau.
Kwankwaso has strong support among the APC governors and in Kano State
he is widely admired for his excellent performance. The Kwankwasiyya
Ambassadors of Nigeria, a group backing his presidential aspiration,
though based in Kano State, is a strong political force trying to take
the message of his performance beyond the state.
However, Kwankwaso does not seem to have political structures beyond
Kano State that can support an effective presidential campaign.
Besides the four aspirants, House of Representatives Speaker Aminu
Tambuwal is also widely speculated to nurse a presidential ambition on
the platform of APC. He is currently a member of PDP, but there is a
strong suspicion he may soon defect to APC.
Meanwhile, ahead of the presidential election, PDP and APC are plotting
strategies focused on gaining advantage in states and geopolitical
zones with high voting strength.
THISDAY gathered that PDP strategists are banking on support from the
South-south and South-east, while APC is counting on the North-west and
North-east, with both parties readying to slug it out in the
North-central and South-west, which are seen as battleground zones.
A senior presidency official said, “The general permutation for the
2015 presidential election is based on the support of the South-south
states, irrespective of the fact that Edo State and Rivers State are
technically in the hands of the opposition APC.”
PDP estimates to get at least 70 per cent of South-east votes. It hopes
to get even more in the South-south, Jonathan’s native zone. But
whatever PDP may lose in the South-south and South-east, it hopes to
cover in the North-central, whose states are governed by PDP, except
Nasarawa State, the source said.
“The low population strength in the two geopolitical zones of
South-east and South-south is reinforced with the voting strength in the
North-central.” The source explained that Jonathan would get more than
25 per cent of the votes in the North-east and North-west states. He
said PDP strategists believed the party would get between 40 and 50 per
cent of the votes in the South-west, which they recognised as the
stronghold of the opposition.
The South-west has the second highest voter population after North-west.
An APC chieftain, who is among the main strategists of the party, told
THISDAY that whatever votes PDP could garner would be countered in the
states of Kano, Bauchi, Kaduna and Katsina, which he described as the
stronghold of the opposition.