FACT-CHECK: Did the Economist Magazine really endorse Atiku?

Nicholas Ibekwe

On Friday 0ctober 26, the Atiku Presidential Campaign Organisation released a statement claiming the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in next February’s presidential election, Atiku Abubakar, was endorsed by the influential London-based Economist magazine.

In the statement titled: “The Economist Vindicates Atiku Abubakar,” his campaign organisation said the ‘endorsement’ by the Economist, “puts to lies the recent ridiculous claims made by Alhaji Lai Mohammed, that the international media is askance of the candidature of Mr. Abubakar.”

The statement was referring to a claim by the Minister of Information, Lai Mohammed, that during his recent engagement with journalists from international media organisations such as Reuters, Aljazeera, and the Economist, he was asked why the PDP candidate emerged despite the government’s claim to fighting corruption.

“They asked me: How can you claim to have succeeded in waging war against corruption when one of the major contestants in the 2019 general elections is actually a man with stupendous wealth but cannot explain the source of his wealth?

“That baffled me a lot, because it means that we are still being perceived as a country where corruption thrives,” Mr. Mohammed said.

The Atiku campaign claimed ‘the latest endorsement by the Economist’, ‘the second in two months’, is an endorsement of its candidate’s superior policies.

“An endorsement based on the clarity of vision and the detailed policies of the PDP’s candidate when compared to the vague and empty promises of the incumbent All Progressives Congress’ administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.

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“As the Economist rightly states, the issues in 2019 are ‘popular frustration over the rise in joblessness and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Mr. Buhari’s watch, as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria,” the Atiku Campaign Organisation wrote.

When contacted, Paul Ibe, a spokesperson for Mr. Abubakar, reiterated the claim of the Atiku Presidential Campaign Organisation.

“It is all a matter of language, he told PREMIUM TIMES by telephone.

“The Economist endorsed us,” he said. “That is not the only endorsement we have received. The Atiku candidacy is getting more and more viable every day. I just told you. I am restating it. That’s an endorsement.”

But did the Economist magazine endorse Mr. Abubakar as claimed by his campaign organisation?

Here are the facts:

First, contrary to the claim of the Atiku Campaign Organisation, the reports it cited as containing the endorsements were not written by the Economist Magazine. Rather they were written by a sister company of the newspaper, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

The EIU is the research and analysis division of the Economist Group, the parent company of the Economist magazine.

Both divisions are independent of each other. While the Economist magazine specialises in international business and world affairs news, the EIU provides forecasting and advisory services through research and analysis.

The EIU publishes monthly country economic forecast, risk services and industrial reports. It was the EIU reports on Nigeria in July and October that the Atiku Campaign organisation was referring to and not a report written by the Economist magazine, as it wrongly claimed.

Endorsement?

As part of its editorial policy, the Economist endorses candidates and political parties ahead of major elections. The magazine, which was first published in September 1843 originally declined to take sides in elections on the ground that “a journal that is jealous of its reputation for independence would, in any event, be foolish to compromise it by openly taking sides in a general election.”

But in the run-up to the 1955 United Kingdom’s parliamentary election, it dropped its neutrality in election matters and endorsed Conservative candidate, Eden Anthony, arguing that “[I]n the election of 1955 an elector who tries to reach his conclusion by reason based on observation has no choice. He may not like voting Tory. But there is nothing else he can do.”

The magazine has since endorsed several prime ministerial candidates in the UK, American presidential candidates and candidates in other elections elsewhere.

Perhaps the magazine’s endorsement that many Nigerians will quickly remember was its February 2015 endorsement of Muhammadu Buhari, then the candidate of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC).

After condemning the then incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, and Mr Buhari in almost equal measure, the newspaper grudgingly endorsed the latter for president saying: “We are relieved not to have a vote in this election. But were we offered one we would—with a heavy heart—choose Mr Buhari.”

 President Buhari and former President Goodluck Jonathan

However, unlike the Economist magazine, the EIU is not known to have ever endorsed candidates running for political offices. It merely analyses prevailing realities and trends in countries and forecasts possible political or economic outcomes.

And that was clearly what it did in its July and October country reports on Nigeria. In its October report on Nigeria, which the Atiku Campaign organisation cited as evidence of endorsement, the EIU clearly drew a parallel between the rising insecurity and what it termed “economic difficulty” and the outcome of next year’s presidential election.

“The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts ongoing severe outbreaks of instability, given slow progress on tackling numerous security and societal challenges at a time of economic difficulty,” the report said. “With tight national elections expected in 2019, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will be focused on intra-party politics and security concerns will be sidelined. The election period itself will be a time of high risk; as a recent by-election in Osun state demonstrated, small-scale violence at the polls is highly likely, as is disputation of the results.”

The EIU therefore predicted that Mr Atiku would win the coming election. But this is not an endorsement. It is a prediction that flowed from the internal analysis by EIU personnel.

“Our baseline forecast is that the president, Muhammadu Buhari, will lose power, and that the next government will be led by Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP, the main opposition party), but instability will remain an insoluble challenge.”

The organisation then explained that in the event of Mr Atiku’s victory not all newly defected members of the PDP will be reward with appointments.

The EIU explained that the reason it predicted victory for Mr. Atiku and the PDP are believed to be more popular in the south of the country while the vote from the north would be split between Mr. Buhari and Mr. Atiku because both top contenders are from the north of the country.

“Mr Abubakar’s pledge is to reinvigorate the economy with pro-market reforms. Both candidates are from northern Nigeria, where Mr. Buhari’s support base lies, presaging a fierce contest there. With the vote likely to be split in the north, Mr Abubakar will find it easier to garner support from the country’s south, which has traditionally been a safe haven for the PDP. This gives Mr Abubakar an edge, as does popular frustration over the rise in joblessness and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Mr Buhari’s watch, as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria.

“Nonetheless, strong incumbency advantages in Nigeria imply that it will be a very tight race. If Mr Abubakar loses–a distinct downside risk to our forecast–there may be a rejection of the result by the PDP, which is convinced the election will be rigged. In this scenario, a state of national paralysis could arise with severe national security implications,” the EIU wrote.

So, did the Economist Magazine endorse Mr Atiku for President as claimed by his campaign organisation?

VERDICT: The claim is false

===============================

READ THE FALSE CLAIM BY THE ATIKU CAMPAIGN BELOW

The Economist Vindicates Atiku Abubakar

The latest endorsement of the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, His Excellency, Atiku Abubakar, by the Economist Magazine, puts to lies the recent ridiculous claims made by Alhaji Lai Mohammed, that the international media is askance of the candidature of Mr. Abubakar.

This is the second endorsement in as many months by the world’s number one economic and policy magazine. An endorsement based on the clarity of vision and the detailed policies of the PDP’s candidate when compared to the vague and empty promises of the incumbent All Progressive Congress administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.

As the Economist rightly states, the issues in 2019 are “popular frustration over the rise in joblessness and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Mr. Buhari’s watch, as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria.”

No other candidate has the capacity to address these challenges, like Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, under whose watch as Chairman of the National Council on Privatisation, Nigeria had her highest growth in job numbers.

Indeed, His Excellency, Atiku Abubakar, is poised to translate the significant success he has made in his private business empire to the public sector. This anticipation is responsible for the momentum he now enjoys in all the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria.

For the past one year, Mr. Abubakar has traversed the length and breadth of Nigeria, selling his plans, vision and policies to Nigerians. Unfortunately, rather than do the same, the All Progressive Congress has focused on negative campaigning by slandering Mr. Abubakar’s past.

We are not surprised by their actions. When a man’s future intimidates people, they focus on lying about his past because they cannot compete in the present. However, we thank The Economist for proving that no matter how far and fast falsehood has traveled, it must eventually be overtaken by truth.

For now, we remind Nigerians that Atiku means JOBS. And by providing the atmosphere for Jobs, Opportunity, Being United (JOBS), Atiku Abubakar is ready to Get Nigeria Working Again.

Atiku Presidential Campaign Organization

Plot 120, Ademola Adetokunbo Crescent,

Wuse II, Abuja.

HOW SAFE ARE YOU WITH YOUR PERSONAL STAFF?

HOW SAFE

How safe are you with that nanny, maid, steward, cook, security guards, driver, lesson teacher, etc, whether at home or in the office?

We are all shouting  "Security! Security!! Security"!!! but are we not all guilty?

1) All the above mentioned people working with us, do we have their guarantors?

Do you ever visit their referees even after a year or two of their engagement?

2) Do we ever revisit their home address provided or call to see if there has been a change in address or phone numbers?

3) Did you register the maid, drivers, nannies, etc, you keep in your homes with the relevant agencies such as the  Police, Safety Commission or Neighbourhood Vigilante groups?

Do you have their photographs?

4) Do you attend your Estate/Street meetings or are you so reserved that you have no relationship with your neighbors and too busy to attend meetings?

5) Do you have a What'sApp group for residents only for emergency messages such as when  a neighbour is being attacked or robbed, a fire incident, a neighbour is critically ill and needs urgent  help and other emergencies?

6) Do you know that your cook, nanny, driver, steward, maid, day care center handlers or lesson teacher, etc, could be HIV positive?
He/She can have Hepatitis B or even tuberculosis?

What will it cost you to do a medical test for them before you employ them?

It is your life that is in danger if you engage a sick victim without knowing their medical history.

7) That househelp you get yearly from an agent. Have u ever bothered to check where the agent lives or whatever job he does?
Do u know the Househelp he gives could be a thief.  Hired killer or kidnapper?

The housegirls/ nannies you allow to sleep in your childrens  room could be an agent of the devil.
They could be criminals

8) Do you know that your driver could be a wanted person by the police in another state for theft or kidnapping?

Have you done a check on him with the Police and do you have a 5x7 photograph of him?

Never allow your daughters get too familiar with drivers.
Especially when they are below 16. They can be raped by these drivers.
Drivers Must never be allowed to take children to school alone.
There must always be a female adult in the car.

Do you know that your driver could be hypertensive, have Hbp, poor eye sight or he could have an enlarged heart and not fit to drive?

9)  Is your security guard a citizen or a foreigner from  Niger, Chad and Benin Republic? How did/can you confirm that? If he is a foreigner, is he
Registered by the requisite organisation and eligible to work here?

10) Never talk about money transactions or cost of your jewelleries or valuables in the presence of your domestic staff.

11)  Never allow Househelp tidy your room when you are not there. It is a time they search your room to know where valuable things are kept and waiting for the right time to. Operate and run away.

12). Most theft usually have in-house informants. Please note that the longer your domestic staff work with you, the more dangerous they can be.

13) Are u aware that your domestic staff monitor your movement?,  Do you also do same?. It is good to monitor them. Go home or office when they least expect u.

14)  The HEAD of the family must always ensure that all gates leading into your house is CHECKED and LOCKED by him every night.

15). Criminal are deadly, They wait for a time to strike when you least expect and they are hardly ever thought to be the suspect.

Don't be a victim.
Do all the necessary checks immediately.

NEVER EVER GET DOMESTIC STAFF AND DRIVERS. FROM. THE SAME SOURCE
IT IS DEADLY.

Get a CCTV installed into your house and monitor from your phones.

Save your life and that of your loved ones.

Crime rate is on the increase daily.
Security and safety is  everyone's business including you 👈and I 👉
REMEMBER, YOU ARE NUMBER ONE SECURITY TO YOURSELF!!!

If you Find this relevant and useful Pls pass to friends and family members.

UK banks 'aided Nigeria corruption'

Five leading UK banks failed to adequately check funds they accepted from politicians accused of graft, watchdog says.

HSBC has described Global Witness's allegations as "misguided" [EPA]

High street banks in the United Kingdom could have helped fuel corruption in Nigeria by accepting millions of dollars in deposits from dubious politicians in the west African nation, an international corruption watchdog said.

In a 40 page report released on Sunday, Global Witness said that five leading banks have failed to adequately investigate the source of tens of millions of dollars taken from two Nigerian governors accused of corruption. 

"Banks are quick to penalise ordinary customers for minor infractions but seem to be less concerned about dirty money passing through their accounts," Robert Palmer, a campaigner at Global Witness,  wrote on the group's website.

"Large scale corruption is simply not possible without a bank willing to process payments from dodgy sources, or hold accounts for corrupt politicians."

Global Witness acknowledged that in accepting the money, Barclays, NatWest, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and HSBC, as well as Switzerland's UBS, might not have broken the law, but noted that the Financial Services Authority (FSA) must do more to prevent money laundering through British banks.

"The FSA needs to do much more to prevent banks from facilitating corruption. As yet, no British bank has been publicly fined or even named by the regulators for taking corrupt funds, whether willingly or through negligence," Global Witness said in the report.

"This is in stark contrast to the United States, where banks have been fined hundreds of millions of dollars for handling dirty money."

'Deeply disappointed'

HSBC dismissed the allegations in the "International Thief Thief" report, saying that it had taken the lead in tackling holes in the financial system, particularly regarding funds from "politically exposed persons" (PEPs) deemed to pose a higher money laundering risk.

"As a bank that has been at the very forefront of developing global PEP guidance over the last decade, we are deeply disappointed with these misguided allegations," a spokesman for HSBC told the Reuters news agency.

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"Rest assured, rigorous and robust compliance procedures were followed diligently. To ignore this is to ignore the facts."

Barclays, HSBC and UBS are all members of the Wolfsberg Group, an international body set up in 2000 to try to improve global anti-money laundering procedures.

Global Witness said its findings were based on court documents from cases the Nigerian government has brought in London in an attempt to get funds returned that it said were stolen by two former state governors: Diepreye Alamieyeseigha of Bayelsa state and Joshua Dariye of Plateau state.

Alamieyeseigha was accused of corruption after he was caught with about $1.6m in cash at his London home. He was briefly jailed in Nigeria after pleading guilty to embezzlement and money laundering charges two years later.

Dariye was arrested in 2004 in London and was found to have purchased properties worth millions of dollars even though his legitimate earnings amounted to the equivalent of $63,500 a year.

He returned to Nigeria, where the anti-corruption agency has accused him of looting public funds. He has denied any wrongdoing.

Corruption ranking

The report did not provide any evidence that the funds accepted by the banks were the direct proceeds of any crime.

Africa's most populous nation is regularly ranked one of the most corrupt countries in the world. It ranked 130th out 180 nations in Transparency International's list of country's perceived as most transparent in 2009. 

Most of its 150 million people survive on $2 a day or less, yet the country is one of the world's top champagne importers and its wealthiest residents are among the continent's richest.

Nuhu Ribadu, the former head of its anti-corruption agency, has estimated that corruption and mismanagement swallow up about 40 per cent of Nigeria's annual oil income.

"Without access to the international financial system, it would be much harder for corrupt politicians from the developing world to loot their treasuries or accept bribes," Global Witness said in its report.

People have been screaming about the exit of HSBC and UBS as sign of bad economics. That's a huge lie.

I will try to explain it in a very simple way.

HSBC and UBS were never set up for regular banking.

When I say regular banking I mean retail banking.

They never ran salary accounts; they were never set up to afford loans to customers etc.

Their sole purpose was to help customers who can afford their services an easy way to transfer funds overseas.

Many do not know that since the inception of BVN which has made it easier for financial regulatory bodies to monitor outflow & inflow on every account, HSBC has been plotting their exit.

If anyone can make their books public, you would find out they had more outflow than inflow.

BVN was created February 2014 and then enforced by this government as from 2015.

What did that do?

Every account owner was
forced to get a BVN code on their account (s).

So if law enforcement and financial regulatory bodies accuse you of fraud, with your BVN
they can tell.... which account(s) you have funds stashed.

Any account without a BVN can no longer be run.

Movement of (illegal) huge sums especially overseas became a massive problem.

So imagine a bank whose main source of revenue is moving funds overseas, suddenly can stay for months on end and the only customers you get are those who maybe want
pay school fees overseas or medicals, won't you close shop?

No more wires of $200,000 and above to Dubai to buy that exotic penthouse or carrying on with shopping sprees.

No more bank instruments to private jet companies... overseas.

The importation of big boy toys; yachts, helicopters have reduced drastically.

Now, once you try to initiate a huge wire transfer, CBN red flags that account and next thing you know compliance is calling the account officer to produce KYC.

Within minutes SFU is doing a background check, thunder fire you if you are a civil servant or close to government.

You would have to explain what the funds are for/how they were acquired and this drastically hit such banks like HSBC and UBS!

Banks like Stanbic IBTC are able to stay afloat because even though they use the same model as HSBC, they are also solid in retail banking.

Any bank that opens shop under this current government with the sole aim of moving funds overseas will surely fail!

Look closely at those who are leading groups against PMB they are private jet, helicopter, yacht, schooners owners.

Many own those beautiful houses we see in Dubai,  Abu Dhabi, Oman, Muscat, Seychelles, London, USA.

Go to our airports especially Lagos and Abuja, all those beautiful girls who once used to sell Dubai real estate deals are out of jobs.

The few you see have stopped hounding travelers like before.

Once upon a time you would see them hanging around airports and 5 star hotels, it made me wonder why Nigerians were seriously marketing UAE real state.

How do you think the transactions were being made? Through banks like HSBC and UBS (many of our local banks also were complicit)!
Now every dollar that passes through CBN to a foreign bank must have complete paperwork! Bankers are now very careful, no one wants to be invited by SFU (special fraud
unit) or EFCC to produce a customer.

Who are those crying about their exit?

The Fayoses, Atikus, Ben Bruces and their minions etc.

Look at the youth coming online to defend them; many were being flown by helicopter to private resorts all over the country.

That tap has dried up and that’s the reason you see many of them online pouring vituperation on PMB.

About 4 years ago, I told a friend that if PMB wins election few banks would be in trouble, Buhari won and it didn't take long it started
happening.

Many of the bank heads used depositors monies to sponsor politicians/campaigns, when investigations started many tried to not only hide their shady deals but shield customers under investigation.

Why won't these people hate PMB?

Why won't they blame their woes on PMB?

When I say many of these banks aren't setup for the common man, people wonder at what I mean.

A very good example; write a lovely proposal for a good business deal and take to the banks and 90% of the time you wont get funding but let APC and PDP finish primaries and produce governorship candidates.

Both candidates can work into same bank and get as much as N500m each for campaigns. Banks didn't care then.

What's the worst that could happen? Worst case scenario, one candidate would lose. Whoever wins would bring enough investments that would cover the N1bn both took, that was conventional banking until PMB came onboard.

If say odudu bank sponsors Rochas and he wins he would make sure almost all state accounts go to odudu bank.

Some governors went as far as making their account officers commissioners as compensation (I don’t want to call names).

Some bank relationship managers would go on leave close to election period to join the clients on the campaign trail, once the client wins they resign their appointments with the bank and become political appointees.

Why would a bank worker do that if the bank hasn't invested heavily on that politician?

Suddenly PMB appears with this yeye BVN, TSA! Banks now see SFU officers like regular staff as they are monitoring everything. @officialEFCC under magu has become a pain in the ass because money can't just disappear.

Who do they blame? PMB!

The instant BVN came into effect; do you know how many accounts were lying dormant because of BVN? With huge sums in them! Many folks especially people being investigated wouldn't want to come forward to claim them; oga Magu and gang were waiting.

When many of these politicians or billionaires tell you the economy isn't doing so well, look closely at the person because many of them
own some of these 5 star hotels.

Some rooms go as much N300, 000 à night.
Once upon time some folks would pay for as much as one year for a room/suite upfront.

Many of those militants/ folks involved in oil
bunkering operate this way.

Mondays through Fridays they are in the creeks sabotaging oil installations, Friday they get into their convoys to PHC and then jet off to Abuja and Lagos where they eventually check into these hotels.

You enter a place like Transcorp weekends you see them at the lobby, poolside and by Monday morning, banks are wiring funds to these hotels to cover expenses.

Today, the oil bunkering isn’t as lucrative as it once was.

First price of crude has dropped so selling bunkered oil isn't really worth it as it used
to be.

Secondly many countries are cutting down on the purchase of crude and third our military is hitting them harder than before so who is to blame?

They tell you banks are falling because of PMB; lie! Banks are falling because banks were never made for the common man.

I mean naija banks! TSA has collapsed most government accounts into central accounts.

So we no longer have many government accounts littered all over our banks, many of such accounts were set up just to steal and launder government monies.

Are these tweets saying Nigeria has suddenly become fine for the common man? HELL NO!

Nigeria for some years now has never favored us the ordinary folks but this is the first time we are seeing the crooked elite joining us to complain!

The fact they are complaining means something is being done to halt their crooked ways. Whatever it is, BABA PLEASE Continue!

And as for the common man, we didn’t get here in four years! It took years of plundering, bad/no planning to get here. It will take a while to get us out.

Signed
Concerned citizen who wouldn’t want to get fired by Monday morning for
saying what needs to be said.

THE END

The stark reality APC must face about Atiku challenge

By Louis Odion

 The Cable Newspaper

Intifada is Arab word for uprising. It perhaps best describes the emerging battle formation in Nigeria’s expanding coliseum ahead of the 2019 polls.
Indeed, today, only the utterly naive will still need an interpreter to decode the dire signal from the nation’s fraternity of restive generals.
Other than in the heyday of coup in the 70s and 80s, never have we seen a gang-up of old soldiers this massive, with the sole objective to wrestle down a comrade (President Muhammadu Buhari) from whom they now appear irreconcilably estranged.
While they would readily cite “national interest” as their only motivation, not a few Nigerians will contend that the generals’ uprising is actually fueled either by bruised egos or loss of class privileges and business concessions.
So, increasingly, the nation is left to witness the adaptation of martial tactics by vengeful old warriors for a purely civil outcome in what may signal the terminal battle within the oldest cadre of the once powerful military oligarchy.
The insurgency intensified at the weekend with former President Olusegun Obasanjo opening heavy artillery fire from faraway Indonesia on Buhari. In what would have been considered high treason under military rule, he motioned the international audience to await a new leader that would sign a pending treaty to ease global trade, not PMB whose “hands are too weak.”
It was a daring follow-up to a declaration a few days earlier in Abeokuta in which OBJ dramatically recanted his old political fatwa on Atiku Abubakar, proclaiming him “President-to-b
e”.
The fireworks would appear to have been ignited the previous weekend with the electoral abracadabra in the Garden City bearing the military hallmark: numbing stealth. Like the ominous owl, Aliyu Gusau suddenly materialized at the crunch hour during the PDP convention.
He it was, according to reports, that whispered a coded message to the influencers of the night to tilt the scale so overwhelmingly in Atiku’s favor, so much that the votes garnered by the second runner-up was only half of his.
Dollar was no problem.
Dazed by the forceful hijack of what he probably had considered his show all along, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers States, the generous host who barely concealed an affinity for Aminu Tambuwal, was soon sighted retreating hastily to his lair before the votes were counted. The young turk from Obi Akpor must have realized by now that battle-hardened generals tackle differently.
Expectedly, coy Maradona of Minna is ever too timid to openly show his hands. But wherever Gusau goes, we can see his distinct shadow. Ditto the white-bearded Abdulasalami Abubakar.
Only the uninitiated would remain unmoved when, suddenly, no word is heard anymore from spectral Theophilus Danjuma, the one with a dark scowl.
While the old generals gear up for the final supremacy battle ahead, there can be no dispute that Atiku, otherwise considered a “lesser” retired officer on account of being of a paramilitary progeny, is the ultimate beneficiary. How pleasurable it must be for the man from Jada to sit back and watch his ancient foes now joining the battle to advance his interest.
Apart from the sigh of relief from OBJ suddenly agreeing to make “peace” with him, Atiku must also feel a sense of closure on IBB who could perhaps be classified as the first to teach him the true meaning of political adversity some twenty-five years ago.
Who would imagine that the man who in 1992 had mindlessly axed his political hero and mentor, Shehu Yar’Adua, when the latter appeared set to clinch the presidency on SDP platform at the height of the phony transition programme conducted by the shifty general, would today voluntarily be in his corner?
Taken together, the generals’ onslaught against PMB could only mean one thing: a boost to the Atiku momentum.
In squaring off to the new challenge, therefore, it will be fool-hardy for Buhari not to re-appraise his strategy and frame a new message that truly connects with the populace with a view to restoking flagging hope. If muck-raking or scare-mongering becomes the only agenda – as it increasingly appears, the cacophony so generated is likely to completely drown whatever positive message there might be.
Indeed, there is a growing drudgery – if not danger – of a one-plot narrative. There are few things commonsense teaches. When a vinyl is overplayed, for instance, no one needs any reminding of the inevitability of a crack, mangling the melody intended into a grating offence to the eardrums. The strategy of recycling old tales of corruption against Atiku may soon become counter-productive, especially as a seemingly resurgent PDP begins to catalogue APC’s own contradictions in the otherwise noble war against graft.
True, few ghosts are unlikely to go away in the times ahead, notably the herdsmen violence and lopsidedness in PMB’s appointments.
But it will be most unfair to say Buhari failed completely. What then has been a big puzzle is why Buhari and his people seem incapable of crowing more now about their own miracles. People readily connect with the issue of bread and butter.
While it is true hunger remains, it bears restating that the situation could have been worse today without a more scrupulous management of the nation’s earnings since 2015. And if the economy indicators now suggest the nation has navigated its way out of perhaps the worst recession in more than three decades inflicted undoubtedly by the profligacy of the preceding PDP administration, how come the people are not being reminded the more that that redemption is largely due, not to a sudden oil windfall, but Buhari’s frugality and insistence on value for money?
Again, while Boko Haram may not have fizzled out completely, let no one however distort the memory. Unlike 2015 when the murderous sect controlled no fewer than 23 councils across states in the North-East and would hoist their sepulchral flag audaciously, a more tenacious commander-in-chief has since inspired the military to recover most of the lost grounds, thereby restoring national pride.
These are verifiable facts.
But for Buhari, beyond the immediate challenge of mobilizing resources to tell his own success story more forcefully in the times ahead, what would also seem prudent now is to summon the humility to undertake a self-evaluation of sorts, resisting the temptation of complacency and being carried away by the glory of past electoral exploits.
True, over the years, the myth of a captive 12 million following in the north has been woven around Buhari on account of his showing in the 2003 and 2011 polls. (As for 2007, so mindless was the rigging inflicted by PDP under OBJ’s watch that Buhari’s ANPP was “allocated” 6,607,419 against his fellow Katsina townsman Umar Yar’Adua’ unbelievable 24,784,227.)
But let it not be forgotten that a partnership with the dominant progressive forces in the South-West was still needed to finally muster the knockout punch that PMB had so craved direly over a decade to tilt the pendulum decisively in his favor in 2015.
Against this backcloth, a counter-factual argument could then be made that the 12m-man myth of 2003 and 2011 is in the context of a Muslim Buhari of the north vying against Christian contender from the south. Today, with Atiku hailing from the North-East, the North-Central largely hurting from the herdsmen crisis, there is no denying that the fabled 12-million-man hypothesis is about to face the stiffest test yet. The PDP optimists are, therefore, wont to speculate on an entirely different outcome in 2019 in the context of Buhari running against a fellow Fulani and Muslim of Atiku’s clout. Of course, PMB’s base remains largely the Talakawa and other courtesans of the underclass in the fanatic worship of the ascetic spirit he easily evokes, with the feudal class and other elites likely to cast their lot for luxuriant Atiku out of enlightened self-interest.
With the Arewaland likely to be divided between Buhari and the anointed of the old order, it is now certain that victory in 2019 will be decided on the Southern soil.
As for South-South, besides a few token gestures here and there, it is doubtful if any other strong argument could be made that PMB has made any appreciable offering in Niger Delta in the past three and a half years to cause a tectonic shift in public sentiments and significantly alter voter behavior, which saw the zone voting PDP overwhelmingly in 2015.
As for South-East, with frugal, holy-communion-
taking Peter Obi as running-mate, Atiku is already guaranteed not only bloc Igbo vote but also potentially a buy-in of the significant Catholic community across the country.
By the way, less weight should be attached to the reported grumblings at the weekend of the Igbo governors and a few leaders who rose from the Enugu meeting to say they were not consulted before Atiku made the Obi choice public. Taking a second look at the line-up at that meeting, you would find that at least three of those present were earlier speculated among those being considered. What else is expected of political rivals in his native Anambra like Governor Willy Obiano and “godfather” Chris Uba? A case of sour grapes, no doubt.
In any case, with Atiku promising to do one term, usually hard-nosed Igbo are likely to view the PDP option as the shortest cut to Igbo presidency and, therefore, less likely to listen to any governor to vote otherwise.
So, the South-West invariably becomes the fierce battleground. Now, the hard questions: what will Buhari flaunt as dividends to the Yoruba who voted him in 2015 to justify renewing his mandate? Could the national policy options pursued in the last 42 months be said to be enough to win more support in Yorubaland this time?
For APC, the ready good news is that considerable energy and resources will be conserved in Osun, Ekiti and Ondo States where no governorship poll will hold except in the state assemblies. Their combined arsenal can then be mobilized to reinforce the defence of the party interest in Oyo, Ogun and Lagos.
But in specific terms, APC will have to really dig deep into its creative reserve for a coherent message to counter the Atiku’s gospel of restructuring which undeniably resonates well with the largely progressive values of the zone, beyond the ready excuse that having a Yorubaman as Buhari’s running mate is an assurance of the return of Yoruba presidency by 2023.
By and large, the time ahead will be interesting indeed.

It is less likely for Buhari to be defeated in 2019, says US institute

by Jamilah Nasir

The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) says it is less likely for President Muhammadu Buhari to be defeated in the 2019 election.

The organaisation said this in a report it released on the forthcoming general election

USIP said the report is based on its interactions with Nigerians from different sectors.

The report, which analysed the chances of violence marring the elections, is contrary to two recent predictions by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research unit of The Economist Magazine, that the incumbent government will be unseated next year.

USIP said though many Nigerians feel that the current administration has not met their expectations, this is not likely to cost the All Progressives Congress (APC) government its hold on power.

“Many Nigerians feel their hopes have not been met. Some respondents suggest the electorate is sufficiently disappointed that voter apathy will be greater in 2019 than in 2015, with the unifying narrative of change that helped elect the APC in 2015 much less compelling as a factor in mobilizing the electorate, and perceptions that another defeat of the presidential incumbent is less likely to happen in 2019,” the report read.

Comparing the 2015 elections to the forthcoming one, the report said there is a greater chance of the occurrence of election violence, listing Adamawa, Anambra, Ekiti, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Plateau, Rivers as the eight of 36 states with greater risks of election violence.

While it stated that it is up to the combined efforts of political parties, security agencies and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to curb violence in the election, it said the greater work lies with the electoral body.

“Important shifts in Nigeria’s political and security context have occurred since the 2015 elections, presenting both evolving, and new, risks to the 2019 elections,” it read.

“Of all the state’s institutions, most respondents felt that peaceful elections in 2019 are contingent on the performance of Nigeria’s INEC.

“Given the relative success of the 2015 elections, they felt that INEC ought to be able to deliver credible elections again in 2019. They feared, however, that any regression from the level of performance achieved in 2015 could lead to violence because some would view the failings not as a result of incompetence but as deliberate attempts to frustrate the will of the voters.

“INEC should at least match the standards it set in 2015, and any regression could set the stage for violence.”

The report further said despite the projections of violence, “there are signs of hope”.

“Yet, while the potential for election violence exists, there are signs of hope. Some states have developed successful election conflict-mitigation practices. In the short amount of time remaining, INEC and the police should undertake a number of key reforms,” it said.

“ The United States, along with other international supporters of the electoral process, should also intensify their efforts to reinforce the work of these key Nigerian institutions.

“Beyond institutional support, rather than apply a conventional approach to electoral violence mitigation, donor programming should adapt to Nigeria’s current context, political shifts, and opportunities, and be sufficiently flexible to respond to the risks distinct in each of Nigeria’s states.

“In advance of the election, international diplomatic efforts to preempt electoral violence need to be intensified. Regional and international actors should convey their expectations that political parties effectively address their internal disputes, and be ready to put on notice politicians responsible for escalating these disputes.”