Friday, 8 October 2021

We borrowed our way out of two recessions, says Buhari by Noah Banjo

The President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), has said that Nigeria is in so much debt due to borrowing to survive two recessions. Buhari said this on Thursday at the presentation of the 2022 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of lawmakers at the National Assembly in Abuja. He explained that part of what necessitated the borrowings was the economic recession that hit the country. He said, “As you are aware, we have witnessed two economic recessions within the period of this administration. In both cases, we had to spend our way out of recession, which necessitated a resort to growing the public debt. “It is unlikely that our recovery from each of the two recessions would have grown as fast without the sustained government expenditure funded by debt.” Earlier, the President noted that Nigerians have the right to be worried about the Federal Government’s growing debt profile but stated that the debt level of his regime was within sustainable limits. He said, “Some have expressed concern over our resort to borrowing to finance our fiscal gaps. They are right to be concerned. “However, we believe that the debt level of the Federal Government is still within sustainable limits. Borrowings are targeted at specific strategic projects and can be verified publicly.” Meanwhile, the Minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, had announced plans by the FG to finance the proposed 2022 budget deficit pegged at 6.258 trillion through a new set of loans.

Buhari presents N16.3trn 2022 budget proposal to National Assembly by Sodiq Oyeleke

The President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) at the 2022 budget presentation before the joint session of the National Assembly on Thursday. Photo: @buharisallau The President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), has presented N16.39 trillion as the 2022 budget proposal before a joint session of the National Assembly on Thursday. The oil benchmark for the 2022 appropriation is $57 per barrel, while the exchange rate is N410.5 per dollar in the budget proposal titled, “Budget of Economic Growth and Sustainability”. The budget is projected to stimulate GDP growth by 4.2 per cent, while inflation rate is put at 13 per cent. It is projected oil production will be at 1.88m barrels per day including condensates. Budget deficit is estimated at N6.23 trillion While presenting the budget, Buhari said, “Defence and internal security will continue to be our top priority. We remain firmly committed to the security of life, property and investment nationwide. We will continue to ensure that our gallant men and women in the armed forces, police and paramilitary units are properly equipped, remunerated and well-motivated. “The 2022 budget is also the first in our history, where MDAs were clearly advised on gender responsive budgeting. These are part of critical steps in our efforts to distribute resources fairly and reach vulnerable groups of our society. “Distinguished Members of the National Assembly, the 2022 to 2024 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper sets out the parameters for the 2022 Budget as follows: “Conservative oil price benchmark of 57 US Dollars per barrel; “Daily oil production estimate of 1.88 million barrels (inclusive of Condensates of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day); Exchange rate of four 410.15 per US Dollar; and projected GDP growth rate of 4.2 percent and 13 percent inflation rate. “Based on these fiscal assumptions and parameters, total federally-collectible revenue is estimated at 17.70 trillion Naira in 2022. “Total federally distributable revenue is estimated at 12.72 trillion Naira in 2022 while total revenue available to fund the 2022 Federal Budget is estimated at 10.13 trillion Naira. This includes Grants and Aid of 63.38 billion Naira, as well as the revenues of 63 Government-Owned Enterprises. “Oil revenue is projected at 3.16 trillion, Non-oil taxes are estimated at 2.13 trillion Naira and FGN Independent revenues are projected to be 1.82 trillion Naira. ” A total expenditure of sixteen point three-nine (16.39) trillion Naira is proposed for the Federal Government in 2022.or the economies to survive and thrive

Dr. Nelson Oyesiku to Receive Congress of Neurological Surgeons’ Distinguished Service Award

Dr. Nelson Oyesiku to Receive Congress of Neurological Surgeons’ Distinguished Service Award The Congress of Neurological Surgeons (CNS) is proud to announce that Dr. Nelson M. Oyesiku, Chair of the Department of Neurological Surgery at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, has been selected to receive the organization’s prestigious Distinguished Service Award. Dr. Oyesiku will be presented with the award in October at the 2021 CNS Annual Meeting in Austin, Texas. The Distinguished Service Award — one of the highest honors in neurosurgery— recognizes an individual for exceptional accomplishments and leadership within CNS and the profession at large. The recipient is selected by a committee comprising the three most-recent CNS Past Presidents, who weigh a candidate’s service to CNS, enduring contributions to the organization’s educational mission, and mentorship of early career neurosurgeons, among other criteria. “Dr. Oyesiku is a world-renowned neurosurgeon and international expert in pituitary surgery who has served the Congress of Neurological Surgeons with incredible distinction over many decades, including as President of CNS,” said Dr. Steven N. Kalkanis, Past President of CNS. “He continues to build on his remarkable legacy as a successful, innovative and pioneering Editor-in-Chief of our signature publication, Neurosurgery. Under his leadership, the journal has dramatically expanded in scope while increasing its reputation and impact. We are thrilled to honor Dr. Oyesiku with this well-deserved award.” In addition to his work as Chair of the Department of Neurological Surgery, Dr. Oyesiku is a Professor of Medicine (Endocrinology) at UNC-Chapel Hill. He was previously a Professor of Neurological Surgery and Medicine at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, where he was also the inaugural Daniel Louis Barrow Chair in Neurosurgery and co-director of the Emory Pituitary Center, among other roles. Over the course of his career, Dr. Oyesiku developed one of the nation’s largest practices devoted to the care of patients with pituitary tumors and has performed over 3,000 pituitary tumor operations. He has held leadership positions in several state, regional, national and international neurosurgical organizations, including President of CNS, and is currently President-Elect of the World Federation of Neurological Surgeons. A prolific scholar whose research focuses on the molecular pathogenesis of pituitary adenomas and tumor receptor imaging and targeting for therapy, Dr. Oyesiku has authored more than 180 scientific articles and book chapters. He is Editor-in-Chief of the leading journals Neurosurgery, Operative Neurosurgery and Neurosurgery Open. He earned his M.D. from the University of Ibadan, Nigeria; M.Sc. in Occupational Medicine from the University of London, U.K.; and Ph.D. in Neuroscience from Emory University. ### About the Congress of Neurological Surgeons The Congress of Neurological Surgeons (CNS) is the global leader in neurosurgical education, serving to promote health by advancing neurosurgery through innovation and excellence in education. The CNS provides leadership in neurosurgery by inspiring and facilitating scientific discovery and its translation into clinical practice. The CNS maintains the vitality of the profession through volunteer efforts of its members and the development of leadership in service to the public, to colleagues in other disciplines, and to neurosurgeons throughout the world in all stages of their professional lives. For more information, visit cns.org.

Nigerian doctor, Osahon Enabulele, emerges President World Medical Association By Chioma Obinna

Former President Nigeria Medical Association, NMA, Dr Osahon Enabulele, has emerged as the President-elect of the World Medical Association, WMA. Enabulele, a Chief Consultant Family Physician, is currently the President of Commonwealth Medical Association, CMA. Enabulele will be superintending over the World Medical Association during the 2022 – 2023 Executive year. His emergence followed an almost one week period of voting by participating National Medical Associations all over the world. A press statement from the association said his victory was a testimony to his global acceptability and recognition of his many years of hard work within the WMA, his profound intellect, sagacity and excellent performance in all responsibilities assigned to him, and his undeniable progressive contributions to the global body. Enabulele’s opponent at the election was Prof. Dr Muhammad Ashraf NIZAMI, a professor of Orthopaedic Surgery and the President of the Pakistan Medical Association. ALSO READ: 2022 ’ll will be tough if Nigeria fails to restructure – Gani Adams “With this historic development, Enabulele, has once again attained another milestone by being the first-ever Nigerian and West African physician to be elected President of the World Medical Association since the global body of all physicians in the world was established in the year 1947.” It would be recalled that in the year 2019, Dr Enabulele became the first Nigerian physician to be elected as President of the Commonwealth Medical Association (CMA) since the CMA was founded in November 1962. In the same year 2019, Enabulele also became the first Nigerian physician to become a statutory Council Member of the World Medical Association, as well as the first Nigerian physician to ever chair one of the only three standing committees (Socio-Medical Affairs Committee) of the World Medical Association, following his election as Chair of SMAC in far away Chile in the year 2019. “He was subsequently re-elected this year (2021) for a 2nd term as Chair of SMAC. With an immense pedigree, Enabulele who is a profound strategic thinker, policy analyst and health activist, has generated several initiatives and made profound contributions to the advancement of the medical profession and healthcare system at local, national and international levels. He is expected to give his acceptance speech during the London 2021 General Assembly of the World Medical Association billed to hold on Friday, October 15, 2021. Vanguard News Nigeria

Sunday, 3 October 2021

US agency investigates Okagbare anti-doping case by Johnny Edward

A major United States law enforcement agency is pursuing the anti-doping case involving provisionally suspended Nigerian sprinter Blessing Okagbare, Saturday PUNCH reports. The investigations according to RJRGLEANER Group fall under the controversial Rodchenkov Anti-Doping Act, passed by the United State Government in December 2020. This development comes just over a month after Okagbare was barred from contesting the 100m semi-finals at the Tokyo Olympics having been provisionally suspended by the Athletics Integrity Unit on July 31. She was suspended for using the banned drug Human Growth Hormone. Under the World Anti-Doping Agency rules, the use of HGH, an anabolic steroid, carries a maximum four-year ban for first time offenders. It grants extraterritorial jurisdiction under major international doping fraud conspiracies. While the Act provides the legal framework for the prosecution of individuals involved in doping schemes at international sports competitions involving American athletes, broadcasters and sponsors, under the law, criminal prosecution cannot be brought against athletes, who test positive for performance-enhancing substances, such as in this case, Okagbare. When contacted by messenger application WhatsApp for a comment on the criminal investigation by the law enforcement agency, Okagbare declined. “I don’t have anything to say to you nor anyone,” the 2013 World Championship Long Jump silver medallist told the RJRGLEANER Group. “With due respect, I don’t know how you got my number or who asked you to call me,” she added. The US law enforcement agency, told the RJRGLEANER Group “no comment”, when queries were made about their involvement in the Okagbare anti-doping matter. It should be noted that the agency’s policy is to not confirm or deny involvement in cases. The Athletics Integrity Unit would not be drawn into providing any update on the case of the 32-year-old sprinter. “As the case is ongoing, there aren’t further updates we can share at this stage,” AIU official Julie Burley said in an emailed response on September 28. She said any announcements or news will be posted on the AIU website and social channels when relevant. It should be noted that to date, there has been no update on the status of Okagbare’s ‘B’ sample. Meanwhile, Okagbare’s coach at the Jacksonville, Florida-based Tumbleweed Track Club, Rana Reider, has denied any knowledge or involvement in the anti-doping matter. “The situation with Blessing Okagbare has nothing to do with Tumbleweed Track Club, I know nothing about any investigation, and I have had no communication whatsoever with Blessing since news of her positive test came out,” Reider said. At least one source with close connections to Tumbleweed, informed that multiple athletes from the club were questioned during the Olympics following the AIU’s announcement of Okagbare’s doping violation. When contacted, agent Paul Doyle declined comment on the matter. It is also understood that since the doping violation, Doyle has not been representing Okagbare. PUNCH

Let Obasanjo criticising Buhari over unemployment show his record as president – Sunday Dare by Friday Olokor

The Minister of Youths and Sports Development, SUNDAY DARE, speaks about his activities in office in this interview with FRIDAY OLOKOR You were a journalist before venturing into public service and politics. What was the transition like? You know I have had a number of transitions; I have transited from being a journalist essentially to being a manager, a news manager at the Voice of America. I had moved from there to being a publisher, I had moved from there to go back to school for an academic research in journalism and then I moved on to become a political appointee, working at the NCC (Nigeria Communications Commission). But even before then, I worked to help build new political alignments. Under that, we moved from the alliance of the opposition parties to the merger when I worked with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as Chief of Staff. Thereafter, I got my first major public appointment when President Muhammadu Buhari made me the Federal Executive Commissioner at the Nigerian Communications Commission where I worked for two and a half years. I have said in the past, it is like moving from a bit of theory into practicality. You know, unless you step into the puddle you cannot say exactly what the texture is. So, moving from being a journalist, being an analyst, being a writer, being a reviewer and all, to now having to deal with implementing and turning government policies and initiatives into a reality was quite a transition. But because I have the experience of managing resources and administration at both international and local levels, all of these came together. What, for me, was important was the marriage between media and public policy. The media essentially is to monitor the policies of government and then to find a way in which you can make the people understand the policies of government, how they work, how they can benefit but in that process you also hold those in power to account. So, as a media person you serve as a barometer but also as a public servant, so, it is quite a transition. But I think I settled down into that transition earlier because I was able to marry these two worlds. We are two years in the saddle, the jury is still out, we have tried our best, we have done things differently, we have ruffled a bit of feathers, we have shaken the table, some do not agree with us, but as a journalist, I deal with facts. I am able to compare what I met on the ground with what we have done; I am able to talk about the new change we brought, which is deliberate and for some of them the impact will be felt when we are long gone. Some people believe that under your watch sports has got more attention than the matter of the youth. How do you respond to that? There is a default position, which is that more focus is on sports because of the glamour and some other things. But right from the start, I did say I was going to put youths and sports on an even keel. I am going to make sure that youths get visibility and sports also get visibility and that is what we have been doing. For example, we are able to look at two columns and under youths we can list some of the things we have done; and also under sports we can list what we have done or are doing. We promised to deliver two major policies, one far-reaching youth policy and one far-reaching sports policy. The first one we delivered was for youths – the establishment of the Nigerian Youth Investment Fund. The first umbrella concept we delivered was also for youths, which is DEEL – Digital Literacy, Employability, Entrepreneurship and Leadership. We delivered on those two and we have just moved ahead. And then you come to sports; we worked to get sports reclassified as business and not just sports as recreation. We have worked in 18 months to make sure that we did a review of the national sports policy. We have worked in the last 18 months to rewrite a sports industry policy that has a business model or orientation. We are at a point in which we are about to deliver on it. That is a far-reaching policy. We have enjoyed the support of Mr President in all of these efforts. People have to deal with facts, you check your facts and you can see that the efforts we have made have been to address the two mandate areas that we have. Recall also, 65 per cent of those involved in sports actively, representing this country at the national, continental and international levels, are youths because once you hit the band of 31 or 32 years, except you are exceptionally blessed you cannot compete at the highest level. So, there is a sense in saying youths and sports, so sometimes they say sports and if you support the youths to benefit from processes, to have a career path, it is also investment in the youths. So you can hardly separate youths and sports. Nigerians are generally concerned about the rising youth unemployment in the country. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo once described it as a time bomb. Does this administration really have a strategy to address this? What did President Obasanjo do to address youth unemployment when he was in power for eight years? If he had built and laid down a sustainable model, subsequent governments would have followed through because it is not enough to say it is a time bomb. But the Buhari government is doing something different. Youth unemployment and general unemployment have been with us for a long time, it didn’t start just six years ago; it didn’t start on this President’s watch. You must also link it with the international economic trajectory. Even before COVID-19, you saw economies struggle from North America to Europe and the rest of the world. Revenues were dwindling, nations were running into massive debts, including America, and then you saw what happened with the COVID-19 pandemic; negative (economic) growth all over. The data are there, it is a global village, Nigeria is not an island, Nigeria is not insulated from these global shocks and what happened eventually. You saw the level of poverty rising, people losing their employment, more people becoming underemployed, some unemployed. So, I am just giving you a realistic perspective. Yes, it is worrisome that we have increasing unemployment among the youth but it also cuts across. And more needs to be done by both private and public sectors. Therefore, I want to focus on what this administration has been doing consciously and deliberately. We have seen in six years an administration that has tried to change the fundamentals of youth engagement, away from just getting a job in a government agency, laying emphasis on training and entrepreneurship, we have seen how about 35 to 40 youth-focused programmes were created and youths have benefited from them. We have seen deliberate efforts to frontally attack youth employment through multi-faceted approaches, by trying to restart the economy, providing necessary infrastructures. So, when you look at it, there is no tailor-made solution to youth unemployment and the challenge every government has is to find a way to bring down youth unemployment. As a ministry, we have also found out that it is not just about offering letters of employment, we can turn our youths to wealth creators, entrepreneurs through SMEs and we have seen quite a number of programmes, we have the GEEP, the BoI giving out various types of loans, we have seen the Nigerian Youth Investment Forum programme; we have seen SMEDAN, we have the Ministry of Trade and Investment doing several programmes and when you look at the whole gamut of these programmes, they are all aimed at helping youths that are unemployed get employed, providing the necessary capital and access to credit that they need to become self-starters and entrepreneurs. Also, let us look at government policies, some of them deliberate, to restart and energise the industries and other sectors of the economy that can take them (youths) in. It is true that this government rolled out youth empowering programmes, including the N-Power scheme, but it would appear that there is little impact if the unemployment rate in the country is still about 33 per cent? It depends on how you see the glass – some see the glass half empty, some see the glass as half full; it just depends on which angle you are looking at. I see the glass as half full. N-Power is just one programme for youth empowerment, there are many others. About a year ago, the Federal Government produced a fact sheet of 45 youth-focused programmes being run under about seven ministries and about a dozen agencies and parastatals. A few of them have wound down; a few of them are ongoing. The point is, how many people really know about this programmes or hear about them? How many people apply themselves to the process of benefitting from these programmes? Remember, during COVID-19, they also rolled out so many programmes led by the CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria), people benefited, households benefited in millions of naira, the facts are there. So, the point is this, N-Power remains the largest youth empowerment programme in sub-Sahara Africa today engaging the youths and keeping them busy. I talked about GEEP, it is also empowering youths. I talked about BoI, they are doing a lot. Then you talk about others that cut across the strata of the society, the TraderMoni and all of that. And then you come to the Nigerian Youth Investment Fund, which is a fund for three years and as soon as it hits its speed, we are going to see the onboarding of thousands of our youths. These are all programmes for the youth. This government has less than two years left. How many youths do you hope to take out of poverty before bowing out? The President has set a target, he is saying in 10 years he will take a 100 million Nigerians out of poverty. What I often say is that once you provide employment for someone, you have provided them with a means of livelihood, and you have inevitably lifted that person out of poverty because poverty means you don’t have an income, you can’t buy food, you can’t do anything. I don’t want to just put out numbers because there are processes that we have to go through but from our own side, the focus is to first make sure that in the next one year we wrap up the number of the youths that have been up-skilled when it comes to digital skill, which is important; we want to wrap up that number between 200,000 and 250,000 that have digital skills, that is at our own level. Other ministries are offering digital training. When it comes to benefiting from the youth investment fund, there is a target that is set; don’t forget that this is not a grant, it is a loan, so even if we say this is our target, the youths must come forward and accept the terms of the loan. We have youths that we have given this loan and they refused to accept the money, they said, “We don’t want it, we don’t want to pay the five per cent (interest); they said thought the money was free. We have projects to say we want to give half a million (naira) and if they reject it, there is nothing (government can do). What is important is that that opportunity has been provided by this government, to say we are putting down this money, you follow whatever is necessary for you to do and then you can access the fund for the benefit of your business. Is there any hope for youths looking forward to mass employment into the federal civil service to fill up vacancies created my retirements? I am not the Head of Service but what you must also understand is that every government works with data and you would be shocked at the amount of work that goes on in government. You have a Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning, you have the office of the budget, you have the Head of Service, you have the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, these people get on the same page, they look at data, they look at revenue, there is a budget process and then you look at it. Is the value of our currency today what it was two years ago? Is the revenue accruable to government the same as what it was two years ago? So, there are a lot of factors that goes into taking decisions on either retrenchment or employing new people. What is the point of employing new people in the civil service and not being able to pay them? Don’t also forget we are in a digital world now where what is being done by five people can be done by two people. So, when the world is being digitalised in terms of work spaces, then there is shrinking of the civil service. But then again, it is the resources and the revenue available to government that determines, to a large extent, this but again I am not the Head of Service. Nigerian youths are not pleased with age limit on employment, especially by public institutions. Do you have any plan to address this? When you look at it, there are different regimes of the youth band. It might interest you to know that the African Union has a different band for youth, the United Nations has a different age band for youth, Nigeria has a different age band for youth. So you don’t have the age band for youth cast in stone. But, of course, you have that age band hovering between 15 and 40 years. My point is that there are arguments to be made for the age band to be increased to 40 years and I challenge the youths, go find those arguments and make them compelling and put forward the proposal and as a minister we are going to take it through and see whether it has merits. It is an argument that I think is desirable. As it is now, most of our programmes are pegged at between the ages of 18 years and 35 years for the youth band. But even in that youth band, look at it, 65 per cent of the population of our youths is below 25 years and that in itself is massive. So, now to think of if you extend it to 40 years you bring more people into that but our youths are smart, they should find those arguments and put them forward and then we will look at them. Nigerian’s performance in football at the senior level has been really unimpressive. But interestingly you once said the coach of the Super Eagles would know his fate soon. The jury is still out there on two fronts. The jury is still out there on the performance of Gernot Rohr. The jury is out there on the performance of the Super Eagles. But I would say, first, when you have individual stars who are professional stars in their rights, who play for different clubs, who play under different coaches and different patterns, you are going to need a bit of time to build them up into a team. Having 11 stars on your squad doesn’t necessarily give you a team. So, the challenge is how to blend these stars and make a team out of them; it is a building process. And I did say we must move from merely assembling to building and I think we are making that transition. I think the phase of just assembling them is already fading out and we are beginning to see the building of the team. I did watch their two games, the one in Lagos, I have not seen them more comfortable in their skin, they are beginning to connect with each other; yes, I am seeing that and we need that trajectory to continue as we prepare for Qatar 2022. The coach has a job to do; his job is clearly spelt out. The benchmarks and the expectations are there, he knows them. What we have to do is just wait because we already gave him a contract. We know the benchmarks we have given him through the NFF contract and if he doesn’t get there, I do not have to break a sweat, we will just activate the contract. That is it. What is your ministry doing especially as Nigerian prepares for the next World Cup; given the public perception of the team being unimpressive in recent times? The question of being unimpressive is very subjective. We have seen other countries also struggle. Football, sports generally, the assumption that you must win all the time (is false); things happen, you also need time. We’ve seen countries that got knocked out in the first round of qualifiers. Some played a draw and they got in trouble. We got two wins; yes, we want to see improvements but at least we won two of our games; we are leading our group with six points and that should count for something. So, what we should emphasise now is what do we need to do to improve the cohesion and the goal thirst of our team. Two, we have seen that the issue of resources has always been the elephant in the room. How do we get enough resources for allowances, for bonuses, for wining and for all of that? Now you have seen that when we started we kept emphasising public-private partnership, to either adopt an athlete or adopt a team, just the whole idea of leveraging private sector money for sports development. We have seen the NFF buy into that, we have seen efforts of several of them coming to feature. We got Baba Ijebu of Premier Lotto sign a N300m agreement with NFF to support our national teams, it was delivered. Two weeks ago, we saw MTN sign something much higher with the NFF to sponsor our national teams. A week earlier, we had Air Peace sign a N300m to deliver. As I speak, the ink is just about drying on Stanbic IBTC to deliver. Now if these come together, we are able to prepare our team, there is a lot of focus, we are able to bring in the necessary technical crew that we need to prepare them, we will definitely do well. Why has Nigeria failed to field athletes in categories other than weight lifting, boxing and a few other categories? We are very precise and that is what every country does. You look at where you have the best comparative advantage. In hurdles, for instance, our 100 metres hurdler is at a vantage position in the world. You look at long jump, our athlete, Ese Brume, is the second or fifth in the world. Then you go to another sport, I don’t want to mention it, our best athlete in that sport is rated number 250 in the world. Now, why do you want to take that person to the Olympics when you have others that are number, 40, 30, 25? So we did something very precise, very scientific, we benched-marked it and that is why we settled down to 10. And even before I came, the previous ministers also settled down to like 12 and then you give it your resources, your support. You know that in Olympics it is the first, second and the third that matter, every other ones fall by the wayside. But that is not to say that if we find our athletes come very strong in other sports, we can’t do 15 or 20 sports at the Olympics. There are already talks about the 2023 general elections. Is it true that you are eyeing Oyo State governorship? No. No plans for governorship. My plan right now is to succeed at the assignment given to me by President Muhammadu Buhari for the Nigerian people. PUNCH

Vaccinated people are less likely to spread Covid, new research finds By Akshay Syal, MD

British scientists examined how the Pfizer-BioNTech and the AstraZeneca vaccines affected the spread of the virus if a person had a breakthrough infection. People who are vaccinated against Covid-19 are less likely to spread the virus even if they become infected, a new study finds, adding to a growing body of evidence that vaccines can reduce transmission of the delta variant. British scientists at the University of Oxford examined national records of nearly 150,000 contacts that were traced from roughly 100,000 initial cases. The samples included people who were fully or partially vaccinated with either the Pfizer-BioNTech or the AstraZeneca vaccines, as well as people who were unvaccinated. The researchers then looked at how the vaccines affected the spread of the virus if a person had a breakthrough infection with either the alpha variant or the highly contagious delta variant. Both vaccines reduced transmission, although they were more effective against the alpha variant compared to the delta variant. When infected with the delta variant, a given contact was 65 percent less likely to test positive if the person from whom the exposure occurred was fully vaccinated with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. With AstraZeneca, a given contact was 36 percent less likely to test positive if the person from whom the exposure occurred was fully vaccinated. The risk of transmission from a breakthrough infection was much higher if someone had received just dose of either vaccine. The study was posted online Thursday and hasn’t yet been peer reviewed. But scientists not associated with the research said the findings were credible. “It’s the highest quality study we have so far on the question of infectiousness of vaccinated people infected with delta,” said Dr. Aaron Richterman, an infectious disease physician at the University of Pennsylvania, who was not involved in the research. Susan Butler-Wu, a clinical microbiologist at the University of Southern California, called the study “well performed,” especially because it reflects real-world transmission since it tracked spread among close contacts. Using cycle threshold (Ct) values, the researchers found a similar level of viral load in unvaccinated and vaccinated people who were infected with the delta variant, backing up prior studies. Even so, people who were fully vaccinated were still less likely to infect others. “Transmission is much more complex,” Butler-Wu said, meaning the Ct value is just a snapshot in time and doesn’t reflect the entire course of illness. Merck says its antiviral pill reduces COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths OCT. 1, 202102:36 It's likely that people who have been vaccinated clear the infectious virus from the body faster. A previous study from Singapore had found that although levels of the virus were initially the same in those infected with the delta variant regardless of vaccine status, by day seven, levels of the virus dropped quickly in those who were vaccinated, which may reduce the ability to spread illness. There is emerging evidence that even though cycle threshold values may be the same regardless of vaccination status, people who are vaccinated may have less infectious virus in their bodies, potentially reducing transmission. Richterman pointed to a recent pre-print from China that found a large reduction in transmission in those who had received two doses of vaccine, compared to the unvaccinated. Vaccines have the ability to prevent transmission of the virus in two ways, he said. The first is by preventing infection altogether. The other is by reducing the amount of infectious virus should somebody get sick. “People who have been vaccinated will have immune systems at the ready that can coat the virus in antibodies much more quickly than unvaccinated people who have to build up an immune response,” Richterman said. Protection against transmission wanes The new study showed that protection against transmission seemed to wane over time, however. After three months, people who had breakthrough infections after being vaccinated with AstraZeneca were just as likely to spread the delta variant as the unvaccinated. While protection against transmission decreased in people who had received the Pfizer vaccine, there was still a benefit when compared with people who were unvaccinated. Since antibody levels also tend to decrease over time after vaccination, a reduction in protection against transmission is to be expected, Richterman said. “We know that the amount of antibodies circulating in the blood decreases over time after vaccination, even though the immune memory remains durably robust and is still able to prevent infections, particularly severe infection,” he said. “These circulating antibodies that are immediately available probably play some role in preventing transmission if infected, so I don’t think it’s surprising to see some reduced protection against transmission over time.” Richterman and Butler-Wu agreed that while community transmission remains high, masks and testing remain important. “We need to combine our vaccines with other measures to reduce how much virus we get exposed to by things like masking and testing,” Butler-Wu said. “Additive measures is the name of the game here.” Richterman agreed. “While there may be a level of vaccination coverage high enough where other interventions like masking and distancing aren’t needed, we certainly aren’t there yet in many parts of the U.S.," he said.