How Jonathan Plans to Win 2015 Election (1), By Aminu Gamawa

President Goodluck Jonathan [Right].

If you think President Goodluck Jonathan has no plan or strategy on how to win the 2015 presidential election you are dead wrong. I just finished reading a document produced by Goodluck Jonathan’s political advisers and strategists.

The title of the document is “2013-2015: Political power and governance road map.” It is a carefully written document that identified and analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of President Jonathan, and his chances of winning the 2015 presidential election, if he decides to contest. It is the good, the bad and the ugly of how Jonathan and his team will approach 2015.

In the introduction, authors of the document acknowledged that a new political order has emerged which seriously pose a threat to the political order created by Jonathan and his team. According to the document, “The public perception of government, the tension and contradictions within the PDP, extremist insurgencies and grave national security concerns, and desperation by the opposition parties to cobble together a mega-party are concrete indications of the struggle between an old and a newly constituted national power arrangement.”

The authors alleged that “there is sufficient evidence that attests to a well-oiled grand strategy to diminish the person of Mr President and the institution of the presidency, sabotage and impede the efficient execution of public policies, distract and compromise key institutions, and ensure a chaotic and unpredictable outcome in the 2015 general elections. Because these forces are critically entrenched in the key organs of the PDP, in the NASS, among the ranks of the party’s governors, in the media, within dominant ethnic and regional political formations and violent non-state actors, this struggle will become more acute and intense as the nation plots its political graph and trajectory to the 2015 general elections.”

The document started with a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis of the person of President Jonathan and the “new national power center he has constructed.” The following is directly from the document.

Strengths
•Power of incumbency and utilization of governance machinery, especially the careful and legal deployment of its propaganda and coercive apparatuses

•Secure financial resources base and leveraging on strategic media assets

•Formidable political apparatus—a reformed, disciplined and tightly controlled PDP—with significant presence in all the 36 states and dominant control over 23 states

•Deep-rooted, nation-wide support structures in the shape of GSG, N2G and literally speaking, hundreds of youth, women and regional affiliates controlled and supervised by the more dominant support structures

•Effective and efficient implementation of the transformation agenda in critical national sectors

•High personal likeability rating which has to be further strengthened and deepened

•When chips are down immense support will be secured from the National Council of State by ex-leaders who value continuity and order over instability and chaos

Weaknesses
•A less than forceful Presidential presence and infective deployment and application of presidential power

•The perceived appropriation of presidential advocacy space by exuberant partisans and fanatical supporters who project a wrong image of the presidency as a regional agenda. This situation tends to alienate moderate political forces across the country whose sense of co-ownership of the presidency appears diminished

•A perceived sense of distance between the Presidency and the PDP that has opened the space for internal dissention and outright rebellion by party stalwarts. This sense of disinterest and disengagement has engendered a culture of apology among Presidential spokespersons whenever matters connecting Mr President and the party appear on the public sphere

•Following on the above, the reality of Mr President being the leaders of the nation and the LEADER OF THE PARTY is not sufficiently grounded

•A technocratic cabinet that is not fully politically engaged, especially in media advocacy and community-wide outreach programmes. This unhelpful situation out burdens a handful regime insiders in their constant defense of The Presidency and the Transformation agenda

•A presidential communication strategy that is weak on proactive propaganda and rapid response

•Inability of Presidential power strategists to manage the relationship between The Presidency and the NASS to the degree that the later, particularly the HOR, which is dominated by the PDP, appears as an outfit and mouthpiece of the opposition

•Problematic relationship between the Presidency and some former heads of State when, in actuality, they should constitute the bedrock of his support

Opportunities
•Exploiting the current fractured state of the NGF for maximum political advantage by strengthening the co-operative faction and sustaining the pressure on recalcitrant PDP governors

•Exploiting the opportunities inherent in the putative fracturing of the Northern Governors’ Forum by strengthening co-operative governors and sustaining pressure, directly and through different front organizations, on the recalcitrant governors

•Playing on the political ambitions of regional champions, especially in the North, to the degree and extent that no unanimity of political purpose and cohesive agenda is ever achieved

•The APC may appear as a formidable threat initially but substantive opportunities will abound when ambitions and egos clash among its principal promoters. Strategic planning should factor in the scenario in the designing of intervention blueprint

•Exploiting the immense public opinion opportunities in the current war against terror in the North, especially given the steady successes thus far recorded by the NSA, and the military high command through the JTF

•Utilizing the social and economic empowering and inclusive space provided by SURE-P, particularly its integrated community empowerment schemes, to advertise and show case the populist and pro-people orientation of the government

Threats
There are sufficient grounds to believe that the NASS continues to pose a threat to the effective exercise of Presidential power in the areas of budget-making processes and the on-going amendments of the constitution with specific reference to devolution of power and tenure of elected officials

•Formidable forces in both the NGF and the NNGF continue to pose significant threat to the political calculations and choices open to Mr President

•Regional alliances among dominant ethnic blocks may constitute a threat to the political choices open to Mr President

•If the APC does not implode along the way, it will constitute a real threat to the PDP and Mr President

•Extremist insurgencies in the North and the burgeoning oil theft in the Niger Delta are already sources of concern and worry; the way and manner these issues are dealt with will determine the degree to which they will pose a threat down the line

•Regrettably, the current, crisis-ridden state of the PDP poses significant threat to the realization of the party’s political ambition in 2015, including that of Mr President.

The SWOT analysis above is just a small excerpt from the document. The document was written after the New PDP was created but before the G5 and members of House of Representatives defected to APC. The rest of the document is an in-depth analysis of what the PDP and President Jonathan should do to win the 2015 elections. This include changing perception of Nigerians through propaganda, establishment of a political intelligence unit, reforming PDP, fund mobilization strategies, causing political division in the North and South West, appointing politicians with grassroots support as ministers, deploying SURE-P for political purposes, using the civil society organizations and professional organizations, increasing the number of registered voters in South-South, North-central and South-East, and reducing the number of voters in the North and South West, etc.

To be continued…

Mr. Gamawa is a doctoral candidate in Law at Harvard University.

PremiumTimes

Jonathan jittery, sends Mark to appease Senators, Reps

by SOLA ADEBAYO AND OBIORA IFOH 

***Tambuwal, Saraki, Abbe insist on defection

There are strong indications have emerged that The Presidency has become increasingly worried over threats by more members of the National Assembly to dump the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to the main opposition party, All Progressives Congress, APC.

The embattled President Goodluck Jonathan is said to be jittery over the report that more members of the National Assembly have decided to defect to APC on the resumption of plenary in the New Year.

National Mirror gathered that Jonathan had sought the support of the Senate President, Senator David Mark, to go after the recalcitrant lawmakers to have a re-think and forestall further defection from the ruling party.

Jonathan was said to be meeting Mark more frequently at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, since December 25, 2013.

Reliable sources disclosed to National Mirror showed that Mark had featured prominently as a nocturnal guest of the Presidency in the past few days to help work out measures to salvage the dwindling fortunes of the party.

Mark was said to be working with other trusted members of the President Jonathan’s kitchen cabinet to network around the National Assembly members, especially those suspected to be angling to dump the ruling party, to achieve his mandate.

It will be recalled that some members of the National Assembly elected on the platform of the PDP had threatened to dump the party and defected to APC in January.

Prominent among those expected to join APC in January, is the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal and other members of the lower chamber of the National Assembly.

Tambuwal is also being positioned to pick the presidential ticket of the opposition party in the 2015 election.

About 21 senators elected on the platform of PDP were also said to be on their way out of the ruling party in January.

Already, a former Governor of Kwara State and serving federal lawmaker, Senator Bukola Saraki, formally renounced his membership of PDP and embraced APC in a statement in Ilorin, the Kwara State Capital, on Tuesday.

Another federal lawmaker from Rivers State, Senator Magnus Abbe, had also said that he was ready to defect to APC in the New Year.

However, investigations by our correspondent revealed that Mark was directed to reach out to all critical stakeholders, including state governors, who could prevail on the lawmakers, to forestall further defection.

National Mirror gathered that Jonathan secretly contacted Mark to help out in view of his acknowledged popularity and acceptability in the National Assembly.

It was learnt that Mark quickly swung into action in line with the presidential mandate.

Mark was reported to have been briefing Jonathan regularly on this assignment.

Our findings revealed that Mark had met with some members of the Senate and House of Representatives during the Xmas and New Year holidays to prevail on them to remain in the ruling party.

But it was gathered that Tambuwal, Saraki and Abbé shunned the entreaties by the senate president, insisting that there was no going back in their decision to move into APC.

Tambuwal and Saraki were reported to have stated that they had gone too deep with APC to backpedal at this point in time while Abbe was quoted to have said that any attempt for him to remain in PDP henceforth would be tantamount to betrayal of Governor of Rivers State, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, his political benefactor.

It was gathered that despite obvious frustrations in handling the assignment from the Presidency, Mark continued consultation with the aggrieved members of the National Assembly even on the first day of the New Year yesterday.

One of the lawmakers from the South/South geopolitical zone confirmed to National Mirror in a telephone interview yesterday that Mark is meeting with his colleagues on behalf of the Presidency on the way forward over the protracted crisis bedevilling the ruling party.

“Yes, I can confirm that the Senate President, Senator David Mark, has been recruited by President Goodluck Jonathan to salvage the PDP obviously because of his pedigree. Mr. President has been meeting with the Senate President in the Villa in the past few days to strategise and curtail the moves and threat by more members of the Senate to dump the PDP.

“The Senate President has been dutifully carrying out the assignment to meet with the members of the National Assembly during recess to prevent their movement into APC in January although without success because some members insisted that it would be too late for them to rescind their decision to dump the PDP for APC.

“It is obviously an Herculean task for the Senate President but since he has been appointed as the arrowhead of the movement to forestall further depletion of PDP in the National Assembly by Mr. President he has no choice to continue to do his best to carry out the assignment despite obvious constraints,” added our source, who did not want his name mentioned.

In a related development, the Chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur has allayed fears over the defection of some members to APC.

Tukur said with the measures being put in place in the ruling party, along with President Jonathan, those who defected would willingly return with time.

He said that the PDP has indeed been welcoming more members into its fold from across the federation compared to the number of those who had defected.

Tukur said going by the undercurrents within the political circles, PDP would swell with influx of new members this year, as according to him, many members from the opposition camp had already signified resolve to join.

Tukur made this known in London yesterday in a chat with a team of Nigerian professionals based in Europe, led by Dr Edwin Olabamiro, who paid him a visit.

The professionals had sought audience with the PDP chairman on their interest to return to Nigeria with a view to offering their expertise in diverse fields for the growth of the country.

Tukur said he was pleased with the resolve by Nigerians in the Diaspora to henceforth put Nigeria at the centre of their considerations, as he expressed gladness on their desire to start looking homewards.

He told the professionals who are mostly in medical, information technology and engineering lines that the PDP has always been in pursuit of reforms to make it stronger as the ruling party. He said a stronger PDP would always produce a stronger national leadership, and hence, a more vibrant economy.

He disclosed that PDP, in the most recent time, has been undergoing a process of rejuvenation, which he noted many had interpreted as crisis. According to him, the ruling party would emerge stronger, more virile and fully prepared to surpass its attainments at the end of the wrangling among members.

Tukur, who lauded the virtues of President Goodluck Jonathan and his ability to pull Nigeria together in the face of daunting security challenges confronting it, called on Nigerians in the Diaspora to join those back home in supporting the President for the success of his transformation agenda.

He reminded the professionals about the need to partake fully in the 2015 general election, urging them to always identify with the PDP and President Jonathan in their efforts to make Nigeria regain its rightful place in the comity of nations.

Similarly, PDP has charged all its members, political office holders and all Nigerians to “usher in the New Year by committing themselves to the lofty values of integrity, hard work, honesty, love and faithfulness so as to move the nation to the next level.”

The party in a New Year message signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Chief Olisa Metuh yesterday said “While the nation faced serious challenges last year, the New Year presents a new opportunity for Nigerians to eschew all divisions and work together to fully entrench these values in the nation’s body polity.”

The ruling party, which noted that this will result in the much desired national rebirth also charged Nigerians to stand on the side of peace and unity and resist the “evil machinations of desperate undemocratic breeds who delight in sowing seeds of discord among the people.”

The PDP however cautioned such elements not to “pollute the New Year by crossing over with their unwarranted attacks and baseless criticisms against those in authority in addition to their politics of bitterness, lies, deceit and propaganda with which they overheated the system, caused tension, divisions, violence and painful loss of innocent lives in the country last year”.

It said, “It is clear that Nigerians look forward to a prosperous and peaceful 2014. In this regard, we caution in strong terms, those behind the political frictions, violence and divisions among Nigerians in 2013 to have a rethink and understand that such is sinful before God and man”, the PDP said.

The party also charged all those in authority in all sectors and at levels to be honest and understand that Nigerians expect them to live above board in all their dealings. It therefore urged them to “use the New Year as a veritable juncture to rededicate themselves and redouble their efforts to effectively discharge their duties.”

On its own part, the party assured that it will continue to be committed to national unity, peace, welfare and happiness of all Nigerians at all times. “In this regard, the PDP not only wishes, but shall work hard to ensure a prosperous 2014 for all Nigerians”, the message said.

NationalMirror

Civil Servants Threaten Strike over Non-Payment of Salaries

  NLC President Abdulwaheed Omar

Finance ministry moves to investigate complaint

By Linda Eroke

The Association of Senior Civil Servants of Nigeria (ASCSN) has called on the federal government to pay civil servants their December salaries and outstanding emoluments since July 2013 or risk industrial action.
The union, in a statement Monday, disclosed that thousands of federal civil servants were yet to be paid their December 2013 salaries, adding that the affected workers and their families spent Christmas in pain and bore the pangs of hunger.
The ASCSN maintained that the inability of the federal government to pay salaries had lent credence to the belief in some quarters that the managers of the public sector economy were “grossly incompetent and rabidly corrupt”.
The statement signed by the union’s secretary, Alade Lawal, called on the Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, to explain to Nigerians why the federal government could no longer pay salaries to its employees as and when due.
It added that it had become necessary for the minister to address the nation on the embarrassing situation since she has continued to maintain that the country is not broke.

The union said it was disheartening that the civil servants, who are the least paid in Africa, South of the Sahara, could no longer get their meagre salaries on due date, stressing that the delay was pushing the workers and their unions to the wall.
“We wish to emphasise that if federal civil servants are not paid their December 2013 salary and arrears outstanding since July 2013 immediately, the entire Federal Civil Service will be shut down shortly.
“It is difficult to understand why civil servants cannot be paid their paltry salaries in an economy where the political elite are carting away millions of naira monthly as remunerations while billions of public funds are also being looted without qualms and those involved in the stealing spree are not being brought to book.

“We have never had a situation in this country where the federal government cannot pay the salary of civil servants particularly during festive periods. This development is very unfortunate and is making Nigeria a laughing stock before the international community,” the union stated.
The union emphasised that it would not stand by and watch the salary of members being looted, as had been the case with the pension funds.
It therefore appealed to President Goodluck Jonathan to step in and order the finance minister to pay civil servants their salaries without further delay, adding that the necessary machinery should be put in place to ensure that such an embarrassing situation does not repeat itself.

It further called on the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria (TUC), the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), civil society groups and prominent individuals to prevail on government to pay members their salaries to avert disruption of services in the public service.
Reacting to the threat by civil servants to go on strike, the finance ministry said yesterday that it was investigating the complaint on the non-payment of December salaries and emoluments for six months this year.
In a statement issued by the minister’s media aide, Paul Nwauikwu, the ministry said: “It has come to our attention that an association of senior civil servants has issued a statement protesting the non-payment of their December 2013 salaries as well as some emoluments.
“We are yet to see the statement but the issue of prompt salary payment is one that the Federal Ministry of Finance has prioritised for several months now.

“The Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance has made it absolutely clear that prompt salary payment cannot be compromised for any reason and this has been communicated to all relevant agencies. And we have received feedback from many civil servants who expressed their happiness about the early payment of salaries.
“While we investigate this complaint which is yet to be formally communicated, the initial feedback from some senior servants consulted is that government is not owing them any entitlements. So it is clear this is not a generalised problem.”
The minister added that it was aware of a few delays caused by the failure of individual civil servants and their ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) to update their account numbers to meet the requirements of the CBN approved 10 digit NUBAN account numbers and communicate same to the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation.
But this, the ministry said in the statement, “involves pockets of civil servants, certainly not the entire senior civil servants. Any legitimate inconveniences are regretted.”
It promised to provide updates as appropriate.

ThisDay

Pope Francis, Truly of the People

The Horizon By Kayode Komolafe  Email: kayode.komolafe@thisdaylive.com    

As Pope Francis celebrates his first Christmas today in the Vatican as the leader of Catholics all over the world, it may be apposite to draw attention to the emerging character of his papacy. At least one discernible trait in the doctrinal development taking place in the  Vatican  is quite relevant to the message of Christmas: Pope Francis has reinvigorated the message of compassion which is at the heart of Christianity and other great religions. In other words, it is important to spare a thought about the social relevance of evangelism. It is on this point that Pope Francis is a leader to watch. 

Take a sample. On his twitter page last Thursday, the Pope said: “Let us pray that God grant us the grace of knowing a world where no one dies of hunger”.  Now that is a great departure from the sort of evangelism that blames the victim of hunger; some other leaders of faith would say the hungry man is suffering from the consequence of his sins. Doubtless, the Pontiff is carrying out a reform of the message issuing from the church. Some would even call what is taking place a revolution of sorts.

There is no way you could be honestly critical of the world in which billions of human beings live in abject poverty without being critical of the dominant ideology of the age. It is such a case that mass poverty is what global capitalism has got to show for its so-called ideological triumph in the cold war. Hence, Pope Francis has been unequivocal in his criticism of the recklessness of neo-liberal capitalism, which has wreaked havocs in the economies of even the developed capitalist societies. He has condemned the growing inequality in the global economic system.  He has never assumed the posture of a technical expert; he has only demonstrated a social conscience in his faith. This is the lesson religious leaders should learn from the Pope.

The Pope has been reported as posing this sobering question: “How can it be that it is not a news item when an elderly homeless person dies of exposure, but it is news when the stock market loses two points?” It is a question that those who glibly proclaim the end of ideology should sometimes ponder.  On another occasion, he said: “People continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth ... will bring about greater justice in the world. This opinion expresses a naive trust in the goodness of those wielding economic power.” The matter is put more explicitly when the Pope argues as follows: “As long as the problems of the poor are not resolved by rejecting the absolute autonomy of markets … no solution will be found for the world’s problems or, for that matter, to any problems.

” By the way, these random quotations from the statements that the Pope has made in the last few months are merely to illustrate the clarity of purpose in his message. More significantly, the fact that these statements are made by the Pope makes them to be weighty in global terms. After all, there was a Pope who was reputed to be a member of the ideological tripod that facilitated the “collapse of communism”. This is a frequent reference to the ideological roles of former American President Ronald Reagan, former British Prime Minister Margaret Thacther and Pope John Paul in the days of the cold war. Similarly, the message of Pope Francis is resonating today in liberal and conservative quarters. However, unlike Pope John Paul, Pope Francis does not appear destined to be a hero of the right. Members of the Tea Party in the United States already see something red about the Pope, which the rest of the world is, perhaps, not seeing yet.

  Little surprise that those who are cocooned in extreme right are quick to dub the Pope a “Marxist” for his message of compassion for the poor in a Christ-like manner.  Interestingly, the Pope has defended himself unambiguously against the charges of “Marxism”. He said: “Marxist ideology is wrong. But in my life I have met a lot of Marxists who are good people, so I do not feel offended… That does not mean being a Marxist.” It is also instructive that as an Argentine, the Pope has lived under the regime of neo-liberal orthodoxy in economic management with its socially destructive consequences.

He is no stranger to the effects of global capitalism on the quality of life of the poor. Yet he is no liberation theologian. If anything, he is on record to have been critical of the leftist liberation theologians in Latin America in those days. Pope Francis is only reminding the Church of the primary question of compassion in its origins; this is a question that market forces do not yet have an answer. You don’t have to be a communist to appreciate this fact about humanity. All that is needed is to be socially sensitive to the widening inequality in the world today. This is the point that the conservative segment of the Pope’s audience should always bear in mind, as they are wont to assail him with ideological criticisms.

It is cheery news that not a few observers across the ideological spectrum are   watching the doctrinal direction in the Vatican with keen interest The TIME Magazine seems to capture the essence of the new direction of the Pope when it declared him “Person of the Year” last week for “pulling the papacy out of the palace and into the streets, for committing the world’s largest church to confronting its deepest needs and for balancing judgment with mercy…” Besides, he has made a forceful case for a “greater presence” of women in the church. There is a lot of truth in the observation that the magazine puts like this: “These days it is bracing to hear a leader say anything that annoys anyone. Now liberals and conservatives alike face a choice as they listen to a new voice of conscience: Which matters more, that this charismatic leader is saying things they think need to be said or that he is also saying things they’d rather not hear?”

It is refreshing to know that the message from the Vatican is not only about abortion and homosexuals. While he maintains the fundamental views of the church on these largely social issues, he is nudging the church away from getting fixated on the issues. On homosexuality, he once asked: “who am I to judge?”  Now, this is far from being rhetorical. It is a possible call for a rethink. What is, however, not in dispute is that poverty and inequality are doing a greater havoc to humanity. In words and action, the Pope is reminding the world of this reality. He exudes humility and prefers a simple life. Some other men of God do not see the contradiction between their lives of opulence (sometimes  bordering on obscenity) and the poverty of the majority in the congregation. 
By rejecting the burgeoning inequality in the world today and making compassion a focus of evangelism, Pope Francis truly belongs to the people.

ThisDay

Another Prominent PDP Senator Files Out- Says, I Am on My Way Out Of PDP, To Camp With APC

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Chairman, Senate Committee on Petroleum (Downstream), Senator Magnus Abe, has  said he will soon join All Progressives Congress, APC, insisting that there was no provision in the constitution preventing him from doing so with the present turmoil in Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

Speaking at Bori, headquarters of Khana Local Government Area of Rivers State, during his third annual interactive session with youths from the seven local government areas that make up Rivers South-East senatorial district of the state, he said: “I am going to cross to APC. Even if it is only one senator that will cross from PDP to APC, you can go and write it down, Magnus Abe will be that senator. I will cross. The Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria guarantees freedom of association. It says if there is division in your political association, you can cross.”

The lawmaker said that the crisis rocking PDP, which led to the walk-out of some aggrieved members of the party and subsequent formation of a faction of the ruling party, justifies the decision to dump PDP for APC.

“Everybody in Nigeria knows that there was a walkout during the convention of PDP and that resulted in the formation of a faction. That faction has now merged with APC. So, what am I doing in PDP when my faction is in APC?  This country belongs to all of us. Nigerians must oppose this idea that once you hold power, it is your personal estate and you can do whatever you like.

“Have people not been crossing to  PDP? How many governors have crossed from other parties to the PDP? Was Theodore Orji of Abia State not elected on the platform of another party? Is he not in PDP today? Did they hang him? People have been crossing over to PDP, suddenly, you said, people cannot cross. There can only be one rule for all Nigerians. That is how other countries make progress.”

Earlier in his remarks, Speaker of Rivers State Youth Parliament, Mr. Ijok Emmanuel, commended Senator Abe for all he had done for students and youths of Rivers South-East senatorial district since he was elected into the National Assembly.

OsunDefender

2015: Buhari’s posters floods Kano (Photos)

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Contrary to reports that former Head of States, Gen Mohammed Buhari may have dropped his presidential ambition to enable a younger and energetic candidate emerges as the flag-bearer of presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, the emergence of Buhari 2015 campaign posters in some strategic areas in Kano has indicated that the ex-military president may still be in race to Aso-Rock come 2015.

It was widely reported earlier that the APC may have conceded the presidential ticket to the House of Representatives’ speaker, Aminu Tambuwal. This latest development clearly show that, the flag-bearer of the opposition APC is yet to be resolved.

OsunDefender

Jonathan Running a ‘Robber Government’ – Tinubu

A national leader of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Bola Tinubu, has lamented the manner in which the Federal Government handled the alleged missing $11 billion (N1.7 trillion).

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Lamido Sanusi, had, in a recent letter to President Goodluck Jonathan, alleged that the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, did not remit about $49 billion (N7.8 billion) to the government’s coffers. Mr. Lamido later recanted, saying only $11 billion was not returned. He explained that CBN did not capture the figures of the allocations to the Federal Inland Revenue Service, FIRS, and Department of Petroleum Resources, DPR.

Mr. Tinubu said in its poor handling of the controversy, the government had portrayed itself as a “robber government,” that deserved to be swept out of power with the APC’s broom.

He said the country had regrettably degenerated to the extent that losing such a huge amount had become a sign of fiscal rectitude.

In a New Year message to Nigerians, Mr. Tinubu argued that in an atmosphere of good governance, the money should not be missing and if it happened to, senior officials of the government should by now be under criminal investigation by the police.

“Under this administration, the matter is swept aside as if a minor thing, like a broken tea cup on the floor. If this government can treat a missing $11 billion like a minor accounting infraction, much more than a teacup needs to be swept away. This robber government needs to feel the broom and the sweep of change as well,” Mr. Tinubu said.

Strange government

Mr. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, also criticised President Goodluck Jonathan over his recent statement on the nation’s security challenges, which Mr. Tinubu stated showed no urgency or initiative.

He recalled that the president told Nigerians during a church service on Christmas Day that Nigeria was not like Syria and other war-ravaged lands and as such they ought to be happy because things could be worse.

“In the face of the nation’s greatest security challenge since the Civil War, this is the presidential policy: to lay low and measure your failure relative to the failure of other nations,” Mr. Tinubu said. “As long as other nations suffer conditions worse than ours, we should accept our fate and commend government for allowing only one of our legs to be amputated and not both. Jonathan’s hands-off and laissez faire approach to civil insurrect does not commend itself to national greatness or wise statecraft.”

Mr. Tinubu said President Jonathan was promoting a lazy and dangerous policy.

“This nation will not improve simply by being content that we are not as bad as other nations. That is not way of improvement. It is the excuse of a leader grown too comfortable with failure,” he said.

Describing the Jonathan administration as a “strange government that resides in Abuja,” Mr. Tinubu expressed worry that it applauded itself for economic growth when the majority of people suffered caustic poverty.

“The growth they commend is restricted to them and their cronies. The rest of the nation stagnates,” he said. “Children’s bellies swell not from feast but from near famine. Schools close. Businesses are shuttered. Jobs evaporate. The streets fill with the frustration of the unemployed and hopeless. Homes, stores and factories are dark. There is no light.”

He noted that officials of the Jonathan administration believed they had taken Nigeria to the Promised Land and as such, intended to keep things as they were now.

The former governor also alleged that the Jonathan administration believed the economy should be permanently structured in such a way that the vast majority of Nigerians squirmed under the boot of poverty while government officials relaxed in the nectar of luxury.

“This is an unfair, crooked deal. We reject it and, as the drumbeat of change marches closer, it will drown out their lame excuses to make way for a fairer economy,” he stressed.

A year of decision

Stating that the advent of a new year was a time for people and nations to resolve themselves to a greater future, the APC leader said 2014 would present Nigerians a stark choice whether to remain were they were or to root for change.

According to him, his party was floated as a vehicle to generate and accelerate the process of change towards the most beneficial end for the greatest number of Nigerians.

“Nigerians must enter the New Year determined to succeed although much around us signals failure. As a nation, we are destined to be better than we now are. Today, we slump in a low place but that is only for now,” he said. “Our nation is crippled but not broken, confused but not lost. Given into the hands of enlightened progressive leadership, this nation can become a fertile land of prosperity, of law, of peace and dignity for us all.”

He said the coming year would be one of decision; for change or against it.

“Shall we continue as we now are? If so, failure will be our sole destination and darkness our only compass. As for me, I reject this end as well as the means that lead to it. We have gone far enough down the unlit road. We want no further part of it,” he said.

The promise of the APC

Mr. Tinubu said the APC offered Nigerians the choice to return the country to her best path, adding, “We realise the Nigerian public has been stung so many times by false promises that the people will not give their trust quickly. Given our political history, this is only wise and prudent.”

He said the APC, in the New Year, would show the people the vast difference between it and the PDP.

“They are a conservative and elite network of under-the-table deals and backroom governance. We are its open and progressive alternative. We mean the people well and do not work to keep them in the dark. We will show the comparative differences in several ways.”

He explained that the party would demonstrate its commitment to democracy by exercising internal democracy and transparency on its deliberations and also communicate to the people at the grassroots level as well as the national level.

“You will see and hear from APC members and leaders at the local, state and national levels. We will create venues and platforms that you may communicate your concerns to us as well. We will highlight the ideological and substantive policy differences between the progressive us and the elitist them. Where the PDP has imposed trickle-down economics reminiscent of a 1980’s Reagan-Thatcher-IMF road show, we seek an economy of genuine and broadly shared growth where the laboring wage earner and small businessperson benefits proportionally to the powerful financier and big corporate power.”

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Voice of American on Jonathan, PDP and political turbulence in Nigeria

Goodluck Jonathan, President of Nigeria (center), in Nairobi, Kenya, Dec. 12, 2013. VoA

VoA – Nigeria saw a major political shake-up in 2013 with the opposition coming together and governors and parliament members defecting in droves from the ruling party. Analysts see serious challenges ahead for President Goodluck Jonathan and his party this year as the country gears up for presidential elections in 2015.

2013 saw a new opposition emerge in Nigeria — one that is more united and more defiant than anything the country has seen since military rule ended in 1999.

This mega-party is called the All Progressive’s Congress, or APC. Key figures from both the opposition and the ruling PDP party have flocked to its ranks since July.

APC politicians, like Hajiya Hafsat Mohammed Baba in Kaduna, said people wanted change.

“And that change, the way we see it, is inevitable. It is coming and it will come very soon…. Politics is a game of numbers and we are increasing by the day,” he said.

Five of Nigeria’s powerful state governors recently defected to the APC from the ruling party, including those from voter-heavy states like Kano and Rivers.

Also, 37 members of the lower house of the National Assembly have switched from the PDP to APC, taking away the PDP’s majority.

APC politicians and analysts said that they expected to see as many as seven more governors, as well as members of the National Assembly’s upper house, the Senate, defect to the APC in early 2014.

“Definitely, People’s Democratic Party has never had it so bad because to be elected president of this country even if you have the majority of the votes, the law says that you must have 24 states out of 36, two-thirds of them,” said Political commentator Abubakar Sufiyan Osa Idu Al Siddiq.

But he and other analysts said that this rapid influx of members to the APC could be a double-edged sword.

“It was supposed to be a new platform that would bring hope to Nigeria by challenging all that we say was wrong with the PDP. Yet this same party is extending its hand of fellowship, moving from one part of the country to the next, bringing these same bad guys, these same discredited politicians, these same thieves, whatever title you want to use for them, [they] are the same persons they are bringing into the APC…. These are the same old stock who will never change,” said head of the political science department at the Delta State College of Education, Isitoah Ozoemene.

Members of the ruling party, like Saidu Usman Gombe of the Northern Youth Awareness Forum, said the newly-expanded APC would implode.

“This opposition party, they are deceiving themselves, even in the party, that opposition party, there is a lot of clash. They will crack. They will break down completely before [the end of] 2014,” he said.

The People’s Democratic Party, or PDP, has run Nigeria since 1999. It has been the only party to have a national presence from the highest posts in the country down to the country’s 774 local governments.

Dissatisfaction with President Goodluck Jonathan – especially with his efforts fighting corruption and his violation of an unwritten PDP rule to trade off the presidency between northerners and southerners – has been a key driver of the defections.

Analysts said President Jonathan was more isolated than ever.

Some speculate that he could face an impeachment attempt in 2014 as the opposition gains ground in the National Assembly.

2013 didn’t exactly end on a high note. In December, his political godfather, former president Olusegun Obasanjo, denounced him publicly in an 18-page open letter that ripped apart Jonathan’s performance in office and told him not to run in 2015.

The presidency hit back saying that letter was irresponsible, untrue and aimed at fueling defections to the opposition.

It is impossible to say whether it’s too late for the PDP to turn things around and reconcile with its prodigal members before 2015, but analysts say elections up ahead are going to be interesting and could transform Nigeria’s political landscape.

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Tinubu: THISDAY Man of the Year – The Man Who (Re)Built Nigerian Opposition

He might not be the darling of all, but Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a two-time governor of Lagos State, has carved a niche for himself in the 14-year history of the rebirth of democracy in Nigeria. His persona excites as much awe as fear from the people, especially the political class.

He has through his doggedness and can-do spirit earned a name for himself as one of the foremost politicians of the nation’s fledgling Fourth Republic. Although Tinubu’s participation in the politics of the Fourth Republic was not his first foray into politics, it was in the current dispensation that he made a name for himself.

As a senator representing Lagos West Senatorial District in the aborted Third Republic, the dispensation did not last long enough for him, just like many others, to make his mark. The annulment of the June 12, 1993 election by the Gen. Ibrahim Babangida-led junta, put paid to efforts to return Nigeria to civil rule after almost a decade of military interregnum. In the heat of the civil protest that trailed the annulment, he teamed up with others in the defunct National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) to rally the people behind the campaign to force the military back to the barracks. Like many leaders of the anti-military group, he was forced to flee to exile, especially under the late Gen. Sani Abacha dictatorship that resorted to state brutality to subdue the opposition.

Whatever Tinubu might have done to advance the cause of democracy before the Fourth Republic, has paled to insignificance with his avowed commitment, in the extant dispensation, to champion the cause of sustaining one of the cardinal principles of democracy: the people’s right to choose. In this quest, he has become the face of the alternative force in a nation that for all intent and purpose, has been tending towards a one-party system since 1999.

With the return of democracy in 1999, Tinubu joined his comrades in NADECO and others in the now comatose Alliance for Democracy (AD) on whose platform he won the Lagos State governorship election. The AD was the ruling party in the South-west, controlling the administration of the six states in the region. It was a domination that brought the party under intense pressure, especially given the fact that the then President Olusegun Obasanjo of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) got into power without the support of his Yoruba kinsmen. Like AD, Obasanjo, whose presidency was hobbled by its lack of support from his kinsmen, was also under pressure to redress the situation.

Obasanjo bid his time and in the run-up to the 2003 general election, he deployed guile and diplomacy to outwit the leadership of the pan-Yoruba group, Afenifere, to ensure that the Yoruba supported his re-election. In the election, the PDP swept the polls and of the six AD governors then, only Tinubu returned for a second term in office. Tinubu survived the Obasanjo onslaught as he saw through his shenanigans during his negotiations with the Yoruba leaders such as the late Chief Abraham Adesanya, Chief Ayo Adebanjo and Chief Olanihun Ajayi.

His victory was to redefine the relationship between the duo during their second term. A chagrined Obasanjo never forgave Tinubu for outfoxing him. At every point in their official interaction, he did all he could to frustrate the Tinubu administration. When Tinubu made moves to build the first independent power plant in Nigeria, the Obasanjo administration frustrated it.

The frosty relationship between them was to further deteriorate when Lagos made moves to create more local government areas in deference to the yearnings of the people. The state, after going through the constitutional process, finally created 37 additional local government areas, which the Obasanjo administration refused to recognise. The creation of additional local governments in the state turned out to be a battle of wits between Obasanjo and Tinubu. To force Lagos to revert to its 20-local government structure, Obasanjo directed the seizure of funds to local governments in the state, totalling over N10 billion, from the Federation Account. Not even a Supreme Court judgment, which described his action as illegal, could make the former president back down.

The duo were to be locked in a fresh political battle, reminiscent of that of 2003 in the 2007 general election. By then, Tinubu had pulled out of AD to form the Action Congress (AC), which later metamorphosed into the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Obasanjo, as the outgoing president wanted to ensure the continued domination of the PDP in the South-west, to consolidate his position as a respectable leader of the party.

On the other hand, Tinubu was set to reclaim the geopolitical zone from the rampaging PDP machinery. In the end, PDP retained its five states with ACN retaining Lagos. But it turned out to be a pyrrhic victory for the ruling party because with an uncommon determination, Tinubu engineered and encouraged the legal battles that finally led to the reclamation of Ondo, Ekiti, Osun and Edo States from the PDP.

From the scratch, he built the ACN to a formidable political party that within a short time became the major opposition party in Nigeria. He deployed his resources, energy and political acumen to give the ruling party a fight in the political space.

In his avowed determination to ensure the defeat of PDP, he tried to form an alliance in the run up to the 2011 general election with Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, another respectable opposition leader. Under the scheme, the ACN and Buhari’s Congress for Progress Change (CPC) were to work together. But the alliance, which began rather late, failed due to irreconcilable differences between the two party leaders.

Nevertheless, they were not discouraged. What Tinubu and Buhari failed to pull off in 2011, they did in 2013. With their encouragement, focus and determination, they were able to bring the major opposition parties in the country to come together. They adopted a novel, though complicated process that eventually led to the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC), which in its short existence has been nibbling at PDP’s stronghold.

Starting out with 11 governors after its formation, APC recently increased the number of governors in its fold to 16 following the defection of five aggrieved PDP governors to the party. APC has since turned the PDP, the behemoth that had a stranglehold over the political space in Nigeria since 1999, into a minority party in the House of Representatives. Effectively, as the PDP grows weaker by the day, the APC waxes stronger.

As the nation approaches another election year in 2015, the electorate is assured of a choice: it is either PDP or APC. This largely has been due to the unwavering commitment of Tinubu who has given his all to nudge the opposition in the right direction. For his foresightedness and unrelenting determination to deepen Nigeria’s democratic space, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is THISDAY’s Man of the Year.

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