Where Do We Go from Here?

13 Nov 2011

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Simon Kolawole Live!: Email: simon.kolawole@thisdaylive.com

Those who think Boko Haram is a fleeting menace must be reviewing their position by now. Agreed, we still don't have enough information to be able to fully explain how the organisation is structured, where it gets its funding from and—very critically—how it intends to actualise its political-cum-religious mission of Islamising Nigeria. Rather, the much we can say for now is that Boko Haram is, operationally, well-organised, at least enough to be able to launch successful attacks on the Police headquarters and UN House, both in Abuja. More worrisome is the pattern and targets of attacks. While the Niger Delta militants targeted their terrorist attacks at oil installations and security forces, Boko Haram seems intent on wiping out the civilian population. Also, Boko Haram targets festive periods (like Sallah and Christmas) to unleash major attacks—although it also carries out minor strikes in-between.

Despite their regular phone calls to journalists to claim responsibility for the terrorist attacks, we still know pretty little about Boko Haram’s leaders. How much do we know about them and their whereabouts? The planning and execution of attacks clearly suggest that there is a High Command. We can easily say the improvised explosive devices (IEDs)—the nickname for explosives not manufactured by legitimate means—can be made by anyone with basic knowledge, but we should not lose focus of the co-ordinated execution of the attacks. They look well-organised and on target, even if they are still prone to the odd mistake as evident in the failed bids on JTF and Police headquarters in Maiduguri, Borno State, at Sallah.

It would appear two distinct "strains" of Boko Haram have fully formed. The original sect pursued a non-violent religious agenda aimed at criticising the political leadership for riding on the back of Sharia to win elections and failing to abide by its principles thereafter. The result was a long-drawn battle with the political leadership with whom the sect members had previously been cosy. Threatened by the street popularity of Boko Haram, the politicians began to witch-hunt them, launching their own counter force and also employing security forces to hunt them down.  A clash was inevitable. The result was a crackdown leading to the deaths of thousands in 2008, mainly in Borno and Bauchi States.

The Nigerian state thought it had suppressed the virus, but I think it mutated and two “strains” emerged. The first launched a revenge mission against the security agencies with pockets of strikes. The attacks were mainly on policemen and stations. However, a deadlier “strain”, obviously aligned with international terrorist groups, began a full-time, large-scale terror campaign. I am not ruling out other "strains", neither am I trying to suggest that the two dominant "strains" are not related, but developments along the line strongly show that the organisational structure is a bit loose, perhaps factionalised, possibly with many cells emerging and operating out of Plateau, Niger and Kaduna States. Not all of them seem to favour a terrorist campaign against civilian targets.

However, with the spokesmen saying they intend to establish an Islamic state, declaring that they do not recognise the government of President Goodluck Jonathan, we can safely assume that they have a political ambition. So what next? Overrun Abuja? Take over government? Set up a Taliban-style system of government? In truth, we don't know their political plans or strategies in that respect. Nevertheless, despite the dearth of precise information on Boko Haram, I am of the opinion that it does not have the capacity to overrun the Nigerian state. Yes, it will continue to wreak havoc on civilians, which is the most disturbing part. Yes, it will continue to attack government buildings and security agents. It will continue to instil fear in Nigerians. That is how terrorism works. It thrives on bloodshed and panic. It aims at destabilising the state.

But the Boko Haram agenda is so divisive and destructive that gaining the critical support it needs to take over the state would be extremely difficult. In fact, with more diligence and competence in the security system, Boko Haram can be neutralised. The sect continues to wreak havoc on this scale because, in my opinion, the security agencies are yet to figure out its backbone. It has taken the US years to strike at the very heart of the formidable Al Qaeda and limit its capacity. I hope it won't take our own government decades to get to the basics. Too many lives have been lost. The sooner we find a solution the better for everybody.

Finally, I've heard many Southerners declare that "the North should go its way" because of the Boko Haram menace. Let the North have their Islamic Republic, I've heard some declare. There even seems to be some suspicion—or suggestion—that the activities of the sect are backed by the Northern political elite. Some go as far as to say Boko Haram is a device by the North to regain power after losing out in the 2011 presidential election. Jonathan's sympathisers often refer to "political motive" and "sponsors" when discussing the activities of this sect. This is Nigeria; I don't rule out anything. But these two assumptions need refining.

One, it is assumed that most or all Northern Muslims are comfortable with Boko Haram. This cannot be true. The desire of the Northern Muslims to live under an Islamic system is different, in the main, from the desire of Boko Haram to impose an Islamic system. There is a difference between a Taliban-style state and, say, the Islamic political system in Saudi Arabia or Iran. The Talibans say women should not go to school, people should not watch TV and men must keep beards, among other strict rules. That is very similar to what Boko Haram is preaching. To worsen matters, Boko Haram is preaching against anything Western, notably education. Its street name, "Boko Haram", literally means "book (Western education) is an abomination". In which case, ABU, BUK and University of Maiduguri—to name but a few key universities up North—would be demolished by Boko Haram or turned into Qur’anic schools.

Now, I don't know how many Northern Muslims would support that idea. Apart from the fact that Muslim intellectuals contributed a lot to what is known as Western education today, how many Muslims want to live in a modern world where all they can do is recite the Holy Qur’an? In addition to reciting the Holy Qur’an, Muslims, I guess, also want to be engineers, doctors, economists, sociologists, political scientists, architects and journalists. To support Boko Haram, therefore, is not in their best interest. For this reason, I am not persuaded that Northern Muslims are enthusiastic about a Boko Haram Republic.

Two, Southerners who suggest the balkanisation of Nigeria based on Boko Haram activities always ignore the realities on the ground: there is a sizeable non-Muslim population in the North. I often wonder why this fact escapes the attention of these campaigners! Southern Borno, for instance, is home to a large population of Christians. Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba, Bauchi—all in the North-east—boast an impressive population of “indigenous” Christians. There is a Christian belt that runs across Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, Kano and Jigawa. We are not talking of some Igbo or Yoruba Christians doing business in these places. We are talking about "indigenes". What would be their fate if Boko Haram Republic succeeds? If a majority of Northern Muslims cannot countenance living under a Taliban-style government run by Boko Haram, how much more Northern Christians?

Therefore, the urgent task before us now is how to get out of this problem rather than how to dismantle Nigeria. I believe that our inability to address basic economic needs is fuelling criminality in the country. When people have no jobs, when the standard of living is so low, when the quality of life is so miserable, there is no way Boko Haram (and other criminal gangs) will not gain following. There’s a link between abject poverty and vulnerability to crime. We think human beings do what they do because they are naturally bad. That is not the whole truth. If the economy improves today, a lot of young people will not be available for criminal activities. But as long as this economic imbalance continues, the symptoms will persist. So it goes.

And Four Other Things...

Brutish Airways?
The decision by the Federal Government to reduce the frequency of flights by British Airways into Lagos (from seven to three per week) has raised a lot of dust. It was obviously a retaliatory action following a seeming British conspiracy to stifle our own Arik Air. For all you care, BA may have nothing to do with the “conspiracy”, but then business and politics are forever linked, even in the most liberal countries. The Bilateral Air Services Agreement (BASA) is, after all, as political as it is commercial. The Nigerian government thinks hitting BA—the ultimate symbol of British aviation business—would force a solution to the crisis over slot allocation to Arik Air at London Heathrow. This is one of the few occasions where the government is actually standing up for a Nigerian business. Nevertheless, what we need is a solution to Arik Air’s problem. Arik’s profits are reinvested in our economy; BA’s profits are flown back home. Arik employs thousands of Nigerians; BA doesn’t. In fact, Kola Olayinka is the first Nigerian to be appointed Country Manager by BA since it started operations in Nigeria over 75 years ago. That says it all.

Alert ‘Haram’
The Federal Government felt betrayed by the terror warning issued by the US embassy in Nigeria to the effect that Boko Haram could attack prestigious hotels in Abuja during the Sallah. So angry was the government that it wrote to the Department of State to protest against the conduct of the US embassy. Indeed, the likelihood of attacks on these targets is not fresh and US was aware security had been beefed up around them following a tip-off. Why then did the US embassy still go ahead to issue a fresh warning? This is my guess: they don’t trust our security agencies. Every Boko Haram attack is deadlier that the previous one. So no matter how angry the Nigerian government is, the US has a responsibility to its citizens in Nigeria. If we are able to stop more attacks and incapacitate Boko Haram, then everybody will relax, believing that the government is indeed on top of the situation.

Deadlock Lurks…
Presidency is proposing changes to the constitution which governors are opposed to—and vice-versa. Presidency wants the joint state and council account to be separated so that councils can get their money directly. Governors are saying no way. Presidency also wants the State Independent Electoral Commission, which conducts council elections, to be scrapped because of the one-way direction of results. Governors are saying no. Meanwhile, governors also want states to get a bigger share of the federal allocation but Presidency is not amused. Governors are therefore vowing to use the state Houses of Assembly to scuttle the proposed amendments to the constitution. My conclusion, therefore, is that any attempt to fundamentally alter the status quo will fail, owing to self-interest. We will continue to move from crisis to crisis.

Babalakin, Go!
I’ve been very impatient with Dr. Wale Babalakin over the delay in transforming the Lagos-Ibadan expressway. His company, Bi-Courtney, was granted the concession under the Public Private Partnership scheme of the Federal Government years ago. I understand the economic environment has been difficult, and getting finance is one of the most difficult adventures these days. But what we need is result. At last, it appears, everything is set. Last week, Group 5, a South African firm, announced a deal with Bi-Courtney on the project. Officials of Group 5 and one of South Africa’s biggest banks, Rand Bank, visited Works Minister Mike Onolememen in Abuja on Thursday. Finally, everything seems to be falling in place for construction works to start. To Babalakin, I say: congrats; on your marks, ready, go! We need that road badly.