Sunday, 23 December 2012

For Jonathan, Who Supplants Azazi?

LOUIS ACHI
Though removed as National Security Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan by the president himself, the death of General Owoye Azazi in recent naval helicopter crash creates something of a quandary for Jonathan ahead 2015 because Azazi, in life, he quietly had the ears of the president on national security matters, writes LOUIS ACHI.
He was the first and only non-Northerner to have occupied the office of the National Security Adviser since its creation. Even after his sack, he was a regular caller at Aso Rock. And these were not mere social visits to share coffee, quality brandy and catch up on old mangrove gossips.
Obviously, it was not clear to many that beyond being the kinsman of President Goodluck Jonathan, the sheer military/security pedigree of former National Security Adviser to the President, General Owoye Azazi, now late, made him an indispensable presence and an important voice in Jonathan’s clandestine security calculations.
The other dimension to this scenario that knowledgeable observers would readily cite is that what played out was a regular, if not standard, practice of successive Nigerian presidents and past Heads-of State to deploy close kindred in their innermost circle of security infrastructure. There is more.
This picture is in sync with the fact that presidents, especially within the Nigerian context, usually appoint someone they can rely on. Someone they trust. Conceded that experience, training and competence matter, still, the president wants as his National Security Adviser, a man he can fully trust. In the case of Jonathan, Azazi was such a man: He was fully capable and wholly competent and also had the confidence of the president. But in the end, he was still removed by the president. Why?
LEADERSHIP Sunday checks show that in the aftermath of Azazi’s open indictment of the ruling party for the successes being recorded by the Islamic militant Boko Haram sect and the apparent helplessness of security agencies in effective engagement of the group, extraordinary pressure from within the party was brought to bear on Jonathan to sack Azazi. His eventual sack and  replacement with Col. Mohammed Sambo Dasuki appeared to quieten party nerves and assuage a powerful sectional group with the party.
But even in his sack, the president still left an influential window open to Azazi that enabled the duo to have a critical unofficial perspective on national security developments. According to Sabella Abidde, a security commentator of note, writing in the aftermath of Azazi’s sack, “Now that President Jonathan has removed both his NSA and defence minister, it will be left to be seen if security will improve.
It is only likely to improve if two universally accepted suspicions are true: First, that Boko Haram is being sponsored by a section of the elite who are disgruntled and dissatisfied with Jonathan’s Presidency. This line of thinking posits that “the new National Security Adviser, Col. Mohammed Sambo Dasuki (rtd), is being brought in just to appease the disgruntled.”
In other words, bringing in Dasuki will take care of Boko Haram. I personally do not buy this line of argument because Boko Haram predates the Jonathan Presidency. Second, the group has not discriminated in whom it kills and whose property it destroys as shown in recent attacks.
“The second universally accepted suspicion has to do with the question of political power and economic control. The office of the National Security Adviser is perhaps, the second most important office in Nigeria. In fact, this office is believed to be more important than that of the Vice-President.
Everybody - practically everybody - reports to the NSA. Many a times, you cannot see the president without the NSA’s permission. Essentially therefore, he is the gatekeeper. He knows and sees things long before the president knows and sees them. And everybody wants to please him, and labours to be in his good books. It is precisely for these reasons that the position of the NSA is well sought-after. And at times, feared!
“And now that Nigerians of northern extraction occupy the offices of the Vice-President and the National Security Adviser, the argument goes, the North is back to controlling and ruling Nigeria. And the position has gone back to its ‘rightful’ owners given that Azazi is the first and only non-Northerner to have occupied it since its creation.
Proponents of the two schools of thought now believe that the alleged sponsors and supporters of Boko Haram will signal the group to stop its violent agitations and activities having been placated. Again, I am inclined to reject this line of argument and reasoning.
Long before Boko Haram, we’ve had all sorts of non-state actors bent on secession or sheer anarchy and terror. And why would any reasonable person or groups of person embark on a year-long campaign of evil and violence just to control the country?”
With the untimely, tragic exit of Azazi and with Sambo Dasuki perching cozily on the saddle of the influential NSA - now ‘totally in charge’ - what are the options open to Jonathan, especially as the 2015 general elections in which he plans to run for a second presidential term is closing in?  Some knowledgeable security sources suggest that Jonathan will have to identify and induct a replacement quickly – an experienced personality that will come from his zone.
Who will this security gunk be? That will be the meat for speculations in the next few weeks and months ahead!
Leadership

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