Buhari and Jonathan
There is not one unbiased analyst who does not expect that as things stand in the 2015 electioneering, the APC candidate, Gen Buhari, would be crowned on February 14. The tide began to turn in favour of the general when the opposition managed a flawless presidential primary last December; and the tide became a mighty wave when, against all expectations, they again managed to select as running mate Prof Osinbajo, a law teacher of great repute, in a political masterstroke seldom seen in these parts. In rally after rally, the APC presidential candidate has attracted waves and waves of crowds on fire for a ticket that has somehow inexplicably become chic and sexy. Few people, except perhaps elitist critics, are interested in what Buhari and his running mate have to say, whether their programmes and manifestos promise the right things, or whether what they promise even angels would not struggle to implement.
But the phenomenon is not quite as inscrutable as circumstances make it. The PDP has tried to sully Gen Buhari’s reputation by alleging perjury against him, suggesting he did not have a school certificate as he claimed. It has attempted to whip up emotions against him using some of his policies and actions as head of state in the 1980s. And it has tried to draw a wedge between him and the Yoruba using the animosities, prejudices and bigotries of the past, and projecting upon his idiosyncrasies a dismal future for Nigerians under his presidency. None has worked for the simple reason that the PDP misjudges the mood of the moment, the spirit of the time.
First, the PDP and Jonathan sympathisers are unable to appreciate that the leitmotif of this election is the incompetence of Dr Jonathan, his failure as a leader, his weakness in tackling the grave security challenges facing the country. The election is thus not really about Buhari, what he can do or won’t do, what certificates he brandishes or does not hold, what acts of cruelty he performed in the past or acts of kindness . The election is strictly speaking about Dr Jonathan, by what margin to repudiate him, and about how to punish him for the humiliation and disgrace he has brought upon the country locally and internationally.
The PDP is already distressed. The more they abuse Gen Buhari and paint him as a monster, the more the crowds at his rallies swell. Though unfortunately the northern yokels have begun to stone Dr Jonathan, perhaps in anger, it is obvious that the president will be extremely lucky to get any sizable vote anywhere in the North, notwithstanding Governor Sule Lamido’s wailing last week that the president’s northern supporters were being stigmatised and intimidated. Nor is it likely that the even more discerning Southwest would leave a ticket on which their erudite son, Prof Osinbajo, is perched to vote for a president who in fact and by his own admission is a woeful failure. Increasingly too, parts of the South-South, a significantly larger part of the North-Central, and parts of the Southeast have begun to swing towards the Buhari column.
It is doubtful whether there is any magic by which the coronation of Buhari could be avoided next month. It will happen not because the voters happily trust Gen Buhari, but because they heartily distrust and loath Dr Jonathan. The elections, I think, are already lost and won. It would indeed be risky to try to procure a different outcome by the shenanigans the ruling party is accustomed to.
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