Goodluck Jonathan regains lost momentum, but General Buhari still poised for upset
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, largest economy and geopolitically most important state, is set to hold its first truly competitive free and fair democratic national elections this Saturday, 28 March. Despite jettisoning the outward trappings of autocratic military rule 15 years ago, the country’s politics largely retained the substantive autocratic diktats of quasi-military rule under the dominant People Democratic Party (PDP). In 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 Nigeria held mostly rigged, pre-ordained, non-free, non-fair and non-competitive elections. However due to major electoral reforms, launched by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua, particularly promoting the exclusive use of secure biometric voter ID cards, and unique security verification, the country is poised to hold its first truly open, transparent, free and fair polls on March 28.
Regardless of who wins the March polls, Nigeria’s politics is poised for a dramatic change if the electoral commission is able to stand firmly behind its decision to insist that only those voters who are biometrically registered and verified can vote. That simple bold act by the electoral commission, will powerfully finally transfer political power in Nigeria from the brazen ‘Tammany Hall’ corrupt political and corporatist elites, who spend all their time in Abuja, the country’s capital, sucking the state dry, -- to the ordinary citizens in the 36 federal states to create ‘a government by the people, for the people and of the people.’ The fundamentally altered dynamic of the citizens of Africa’s most populous and largest economy, being empowered to truly have the right, choice and chance, to regularly freely change their leaders when they do not deliver socio-economic goods and security will help to powerfully transform Nigeria into ‘the China of Africa,’ an economic behemoth, that much like China’s role in Asia, help to catalyze a complete economic transformation of the African continent.
The six week postponement of Nigeria’s originally scheduled February 14 presidential elections allowed embattled President Goodluck Jonathan to take several pragmatic steps to claw back lost electoral momentum. However Jonathan’s valiant efforts notwithstanding, after several simulations, DaMina Advisors’s proprietary VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral Forecast Statistical Model, (reproduced below) continues to still give the odds of an upset victory to opposition leader Retired General Muhammadu Buhari. Despite the bi-variate model’s heavy discount on frontier markets political challengers and favoring incumbency, Buhari still emerges on top.
Jonathan in late February bypassed the dispirited Nigerian army and authorized regional forces from neighbors Chad, Cameroon and Niger and foreign mercenaries to enter Nigerian territory and dismantle known Boko Haram camps. Additionally, Jonathan sensing that the ethnic Yoruba, will be the ‘swing voters’ in the forthcoming election has spent the past few weeks wooing ethnic Yoruba chieftains and business elites. Finally, Jonathan’s campaign has sought to convince many disgruntled wealthy political and business elites that Buhari election will trigger a ‘Putin-style’ anti-oligarch campaign aimed at sending many of them to jail to retrieving questionable funds and corrupt investments. Despite all these efforts the larger centrifugal forces of the forthcoming election are still running against the government and favoring ‘change.’
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| DaMina Advisors Nigeria Elections VERITAS Model State | 2006 Pop Census | 2015 INEC Registered Voters | PVC (Permanent Voter Cards Collected by Voters) | % of Pop with PVCs | 2003 Turnout | 2011 Turnout | DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 Turnout | DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 PDP Vote Share | DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 APC Vote Share | DaMina Advisors Analytic Comment |
| Abia | 2,845,380 | 1,396,162 | 1,183,127 | 42% | 59.80% | 77.95% | 69% | 692,647 | 122,232 | Abia and most of the pan-ethnic Igbo eastern states to firmly re-elect Jonathan |
| Abuja (FCT) | 1,406,239 | 881,472 | 569,109 | 40% | 43.70% | 42.19% | 40% | 100,163 | 127,480 | Capital Abuja to tilt towards Buhari |
| Adamawa | 3,178,950 | 1,559,012 | 1,381,571 | 43% | 77.60% | 49.98% | 60% | 298,419 | 530,523 | Boko Haram attacks; PDP elite confusion and unpopular Ribadu governorship quest |
| Akwa Ibom | 3,902,051 | 1,680,759 | 1,587,566 | 41% | 80.50% | 76.22% | 83% | 1,185,912 | 131,768 | Presidential stalwart Gov Akpabio to ensure PDP victory |
| Anambra | 4,177,828 | 1,963,173 | 1,658,967 | 40% | 48.20% | 57.52% | 55% | 775,567 | 136,865 | New Gov Obiano and pan-Igbo APGA party rooting heavily for Jonathan |
| Bauchi | 4,653,066 | 2,054,125 | 1,967,081 | 42% | 81.60% | 63.80% | 77% | 151,465 | 1,363,187 | PDP Party Chairman Muaazu's home state, but the anti-Jonathan wave strong |
| Bayelsa | 1,704,515 | 610,373 | 548,585 | 32% | 97.00% | 85.61% | 95% | 469,040 | 52,116 | Jonathan to win home state massively, but Buhari to make small in-roads |
| Benue | 4,253,641 | 2,015,452 | 1,607,800 | 38% | 71.10% | 43.82% | 55% | 495,202 | 389,088 | Senate President Mark stays in PDP and rallies state for Jonathan |
| Borno | 4,171,104 | 1,934,079 | 1,407,777 | 34% | 62.00% | 49.46% | 45% | 82,355 | 551,145 | Heart of Boko Haram insurgency; PDP will get very few votes |
| Cross Rivers | 2,892,988 | 1,175,623 | 983,968 | 34% | 96.00% | 63.24% | 85% | 736,008 | 100,365 | Cross Rivers and other pan-ethnic Igbo eastern states are firmly behind Jonathan |
| Delta | 4,112,445 | 2,275,264 | 1,939,952 | 47% | 72.90% | 68.82% | 75% | 1,309,468 | 145,496 | PDP Gov Uduaghan to assure Jonathan victory with large margin |
| Ebonyi | 2,176,947 | 1,074,273 | 848,392 | 39% | 80.50% | 47.87% | 66% | 481,547 | 78,391 | Ebonyi firmly behind Jonathan; but PDP Gov Elechi unpopularity to give APC room |
| Edo | 3,233,366 | 1,779,738 | 1,224,608 | 38% | 78.00% | 37.52% | 55% | 383,915 | 289,620 | Popular Gov Oshiomole will pull large parts of state to APC, but PDP still strong |
| Ekiti | 2,398,957 | 732,021 | 522,107 | 22% | 43.20% | 34.24% | 40% | 98,156 | 110,687 | Ekiti despite recent PDP governorship gain will tilt towards APC |
| Enugu | 3,267,837 | 1,429,221 | 1,223,606 | 37% | 77.40% | 62.46% | 70% | 735,874 | 119,793 | Enugu, a major ethnic Igbo state is firmly behind Jonathan |
| Gombe | 2,365,040 | 1,120,023 | 1,070,198 | 45% | 80.00% | 58.41% | 73% | 218,748 | 562,496 | Buhari to carry Gombe as he did in 2011; Boko Haram sinks Jonathan further here |
| Imo | 3,927,563 | 1,803,030 | 1,707,449 | 43% | 64.60% | 83.56% | 78% | 599,315 | 732,496 | Opposition Gov Rochas Okorochas cottails to help Buhari |
| Jigawa | 4,361,002 | 1,831,276 | 1,757,658 | 40% | 70.10% | 56.64% | 65% | 434,142 | 708,336 | Gov Lamido is in PDP, but heart is with Buhari/Obasanjo; APC wins |
| Kaduna | 6,113,503 | 3,407,222 | 3,174,519 | 52% | 83.60% | 65.81% | 75% | 904,738 | 1,476,151 | Opposition to topple PDP in Kaduna with pro-Buhari Muslim wave |
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