06 May 2016
Associate Fellow, Africa Programme
Fulan NasrullahCounter-insurgency
Analyst, Nigeria
A securitized response to clashes
between armed pastoralists and settler communities could escalate the crisis to
widespread conflict.
There have been long-standing
tensions between nomadic pastoralist Fulanis, one of the dominant ethnic groups
in Nigeria and the ruling class of much of the north, and their settled
counterparts, centred on the use of land for grazing livestock. But recently,
the frequency and intensity of the violence has increased, causing alarm and
potentially spurring a dangerous securitized approach to the clashes that could
wreak havoc on Nigeria’s fragile economy and have devastating consequences for
the majority of peaceful Fulanis.
Violence has certainly claimed
hundreds of pastoralist and settler lives this year alone, but precise
information is scarce. It is still not clear whether this is a product of
long-standing inter-community tensions, exacerbated by climate change and
land-grabbing by politicians, simple banditry or overspill from the Boko Haram
crisis – or a complex mix of all of these factors. A knee-jerk response from
the Nigerian government to poorly informed media speculation could further
alienate an entire ethnic group and result in serious human rights abuses, as
has been seen in the northeast of the country during the conflict with Boko
Haram. Rather than reducing violence, it could catalyse the degeneration of the
current crisis into real conflict.
Fulani
tensions
Pastoralist Fulanis in Nigeria
engage in a centuries-old seasonal migration pattern in which they move their
cattle south during the dry season when the supply of fodder for livestock is
scarce in the north.
Traditionally pastoralist Fulani
communities paid a fee to the leaders of local settlements in exchange for the
right to graze their cattle in their territories. This was the historical
grazing arrangement and remains operational in some areas.
As Nigeria developed after
independence, the government designated several hundred grazing reserves across
the 19 northern states in a bid to prevent clashes between pastoralists and
settled communities. However, many of the designated grazing reserves were
viewed as lucrative investments by some politicians and had their usage
changed, creating a shortage of land, water and other resources necessary for
the grazing of livestock. Pastoralists were forced to search for water and
pasture for their animals outside the designated reserves, pushing them into
confrontation with settlers.
Several contemporary factors play
into the worsening of these long-standing tensions. Environmental degradation
is playing a role in fuelling the crisis, with desertification and the
shrinking of Lake Chad forcing many pastoralist communities to move even
farther into areas outside regular migration routes. Another dynamic is
the religious divide between both sides, with the pastoralist Fulanis being
religiously and culturally Muslim, while the settled farmer communities have
either been wholly Christian or to a large extent so. Further muddying the
waters are the activities of cattle rustling militias and other mercenary
criminal elements who for the past seven years have exploited tensions and
carried out a campaign of violence against pastoralist and settled farmer
communities in an arc from the far northwest to the north central zone of the
country.
Recent
violence
Recently, groups of men thought to
be pastoralists have attacked settlers with sophisticated weapons not normally
associated with herders, spreading fear and anxiety across farming communities.
Some pastoralists, in turn, claim to have acted in self-defence after attacks
on them by settlers.
As the clashes have become more
deadly, elements within Nigeria’s national security establishment have pointed
to alleged links between ‘Fulani herdsmen’ and the Boko Haram insurgency. The
allegation is that Boko Haram fighters fleeing the war in the northeast have
moved south to the north central region where they are carrying out attacks on
civilian communities under the guise of herdsmen.
Newspaper headlines are fuelling
public anger. The classification of ‘Fulani militants’ by the Global Terrorism
Index 2015 as the world’s fourth-deadliest terror group also stoked the flames,
increasing fear and anxiety in a region regularly terrorised by jihadist sects.
This was the first time this activity had been described as terrorism, with the
index unhelpfully listing pastoralist-linked clashes alongside established
terrorist groups such as ISIS and al Shabaab.
Avoiding
a one-sided response
As public support grows for a
government intervention, lawmakers will need to be mindful of avoiding a
one-sided approach to resolving this conflict. The Fulani ethnic group has on
many occasions called for the Nigerian government to intervene in the conflict
− but as an impartial mediator between all sides rather than an antagonist, to
provide security and protection for both herdsmen and settled farmer
settlements and clamp down on the criminal gangs and opportunists. A security
policy seen to be against a single party in this crisis effectively dismisses
the grievances of the Fulani.
In a country with a history of
sectarian violence, the crisis is gradually being seen through an
ethno-religious prism. There is a historical trust deficit between the Muslim
and Christian communities, and an approach that is seen to be one-sided risks
perpetuating the development of a siege mentality within the wider Muslim
communities. Should the government resort to a military response against the
Fulani pastoralist community, there is a risk the conflict could spread further
− drawing in other Fulani communities from across the region and causing
widespread instability.
Chatham House
Chatham House
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