One
of the most frustrating things about Nigeria’s political history is how
it keeps repeating itself and nothing ever seems to change. The present
administration has not yet spent up to two years in office and already
the language of politics is dominated by the phrase: “the battle for
2019.” Nobody is talking about the next general election of 2019, but
“the battle!” As is crystally evident, the 2019 general elections are
likely to end up as one big nationwide war, and this won’t be a war of
ideas, but a war of egos, of ambitions, and utter desperation for power.
Perhaps what makes this prospect even
more believable is the narrative already being peddled that the
incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari may decide to be a one-term
President, and therefore step down from office in 2019. He would be 77
then, and should he decide to retire from politics, that would leave the
field open to a fresh selection of a Presidential candidate.
The only matter that seems settled in
this regard, however, is that the successor must come from the Fulani
North. You get the sense that this seems given and should President
Buhari decide not to run, that may well give the North, the advantage of
holding Presidential power for another eight years making a total of 12
years depending of course on the performance of whoever succeeds the
incumbent. We are still a long way, therefore, from that future when
political contests can be determined solely on the basis of the
candidate’s merit; the complexity of our ethnic politics has ensured an
unwritten rule where power is rotated at all levels among ethnic groups
and geographical zones, creating a turn-by-turn sharing of power and
office, both in terms of moment and duration. The Ijaws would most
certainly someday in the future insist that they deserve another shot at
power at the centre.
We may however be dealing with political
naivete on the part of those who are basing their 2019 permutations on
the likelihood of a one-term Buhari Presidency. There is certainly
nothing in the Nigerian Constitution that disqualifies a septuagenarian
from being President or seeking a second term. This is why the jostling
for Presidency in 2019 by self-appointed crown princes in the All
Progressives Congress (APC), and non-APC Northern politicians may
ultimately be a case of giving away the game too early in the day.
In 2002, that was how some ambitious
elements began a campaign that then President Olusegun Obasanjo should
embrace the Mandela option, that is, spend only one term in office. It
was their idea, not the incumbent’s. They wanted Baba to retire so they
could take over. But the same President Obasanjo not only completed a
second term, he was so strong by the end of his second term, some
lobbyists even began to campaign for a third term – that failed of
course – but since leaving office in 2007, President Obasanjo has
remained extraordinarily busy and energetic.
The way it works, a powerful lobby would
soon emerge to persuade President Buhari to seek a second term, not
just because he is entitled, but because, that is how they usually
phrase it: he needs to complete the rescue job that he has started.
Already, half of the first term has been overtaken by economic
recession, rising uncertainty and an overwhelmed and alienated
citizenry. The President would be told that he needs more time to change
the tide and leave a stronger legacy. I have seen these open and hidden
persuaders at work at very close quarters. They are legacy
constructionists who can persuade any political office holder to remain
in office forever.
Where age is the issue, they would
insist that it is not. Where there are health matters involved, they
would invoke the name of God. Where neither age nor health is an issue,
they will invent reasons to justify why nobody in power should give it
up when he still has a second chance. For example, if at any time in
2014/15, President Goodluck Jonathan had wanted to change his mind about
running for a second term, the strong forces driving the second term
project would not have allowed him. They were so overpowering even the
ethnic card was thrown up when he was reminded that he was not
representing himself in Aso Rock but the entire South South and the Ijaw
nation and that the zone is entitled like any other geopolitical zone
to a second term. Delegations after delegations stormed the Villa and
the media to make their case. President Buhari would most certainly face
the same challenge.
A second theory is that the APC may not
survive till 2019 due to the division of the party into many factions,
each faction led by an ambitious political figure, looking forward to
2019. There are indications that once the party implodes, that may leave
the incumbent President without critical support centres, particularly
the South West, whose main political leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu seems
not to be getting the best deal out of the APC coalition that drove the
Jonathan administration out of power. It is again extremely naïve to
make political calculations on the basis of an imaginary accident in the
opponent’s camp. This is one of the mistakes the PDP made in 2015.
Certain influential figures within the party failed to act early and
plan effectively because they kept hoping that the APC will fail. But
rather than fail, the party built on a strong foundation of conspiracy
and a single-minded determination to get the PDP government out of power
merely got stronger. The PDP, now in disarray is working on the same
assumption. Rather than get its house in order, the party is hoping that
the APC will collapse and that will automatically make the PDP the
people’s choice in 2019. That is too simplistic an expectation.
Those who also want to displace
President Buhari are further assuming that once he is deserted by key
figures that made his victory in 2015 possible, it would be difficult
for him to seek a second term or win an election with his own political
base, the North, which is now also radically divided over the
performance of his government. It is wrong and too early to make such
calls. Those who want President Buhari to embrace the Mandela option and
are carelessly making their ambitions known should remember what
President Obasanjo did to such people in 2003. He outsmarted them and
subsequently made them irrelevant.
Those in the PDP and other places who
assume that they can emerge in 2019, by sheer accident of circumstances
such as economic recession and the growing criticisms of the
administration should go back and learn how to build an effective
opposition. The opposition in Nigeria today is too docile. It is too
silent. The people may have issues with the government of the day, but
nobody is offering any challenge or alternative vision in the same kind
of robust even if hypertensive manner the APC did throughout the
Jonathan administration. Last minute moves in politics are often
counter-productive. The swiftest challenger often wins the race.
What is not very clear to many in
leadership positions is that there is a difference between politics and
governance. They mix both, and mix them up badly, and when they do, they
get disappointed in the long run. Besides, politics in Nigeria is still
about the sharing of spoils of victory. When the sharing formula fails,
or causes disaffection, the political space is muddled up. Nigerian
politicians are also selfish: they do not know how to serve a leader.
They want to use the leader to serve their own ends, if the leader is
weak, they undermine him, if he is strong, they sabotage him. This is
why in the end, all the battle cries about 2019 amount to nothing other
than cries of selfish desperation. Where are the ideas? Civilized
political discourse is driven by ideas, not the exchange of vitriol or
abuse over positions and privileges.
Those who are crying like babies over
2019 would serve us better if they engage the general public with ideas.
They should tell us why they think change will again be necessary in
2019. They should explain what change or difference they are proposing. I
assume that Nigerians are much wiser now: and they are not likely to
hand over power to someone who wants it just on the basis of
expectations induced by saccharine campaign promises. The “battle of
2019” crowd should also show interest in the present. How do they think
economic recession can be dealt with? What ideas do they have about
Nigeria’s future and political circumstances? What do they think the
government of the day should be doing that it is not doing? What is the
value of their own citizenship? What is the value of their stake in the
Nigerian project? Who are they? Oftentimes, we don’t really know the
people we vote for. We vote for fine posters, what the propagandists
tell us, and titillating campaign materials. By the time we get to know
the people we voted for, their politics would already be in the way of
the governance we wanted, messing it all up.
To move Nigeria forward, we must move
beyond the melodrama of politicians, to which there seems to be
practically no end, other than own interests. We need a new tribe of
leaders: men and women with hot fire in their bellies that can burn all
the tents of shameful covenants that have held Nigeria down since
independence. As the political warriors begin to talk about “the battle
of 2019,” we the people, must insist not on battle or war, but such
leadership recruitment that serves the nation, and leads to progress and
development, and such politics that produces the best result, new or
incumbent. But before 2019, the people must survive and remain assured
that indeed the duty of government is to look out for their welfare and
make them happy. That is the greater task at hand.
Dr.
Reuben Abati was spokesman and special adviser, media and publicity to
President Goodluck Jonathan (2011 – 2015). He tweets from @abati1990.
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the writer.
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