BEFORE WE REPEAT JUNE 12

PENDULUM BY DELE MOMODU, Email: dele.momodu@thisdaylive.com

“Now these things happened to them as an example, but they were written down for our instruction, on whom the end of the ages has come…”

      -  1 CORINTHIANS 10: 11

Fellow Nigerians, now more than ever, I believe History must be taught in our schools. Every time I watch and observe our politicians, I come to the conclusion that we’ve learnt nothing tangible from the terrible mistakes of our tragedy-prone past. And it makes me ponder over that profound Yoruba proverb: if it takes us 20 years to prepare for madness, when are we going to go stark raven mad? It is a very important poser to contemplate.

In case you are 30 or below that age, you could not have been more than eight years old in 1993. As such, I won’t be surprised if you don’t know the real story of Nigeria’s best election ever on June 12, 1993. You probably won’t know much or anything about the winner of that Presidential election, Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola. I’m almost certain that you would never have heard or known of Alhaji Bashir Tofa, the NRC Presidential candidate who was mercilessly trounced by Chief Abiola.
The June 12 election has been described as a watershed and as, arguably, the fairest and freest election ever in the history of Nigeria. Events leading to June 12 indicated that there were danger signals ahead. Some people working in cahoots with the Ibrahim Babangida government chose to destabilise the whole process for reasons best known to them. It is such a long and ugly story many would not wish to remember for its traumatic effect.  The most unforgettable aspect of the higgledy-piggledy was the attempt by these guys to stop the election from holding and getting an injunction in the middle of the night. But, somehow, Professor Henry Nwosu, Chairman of the defunct National Electoral Commission, and his amazing team, managed to conduct an election without parallel.
The electoral system used at the time was popularly known and acclaimed as Option A4. It was a brilliant cocktail of an open ballot system which was unique and very effective. Till this day, no one is able to tell us what transpired behind the scenes that eventually led to such a beautiful election being terminated at birth. Sadly, a new vocabulary, annulment, was introduced into our lexicon.  What should have been our happiest moment soon became our worst nightmare. It won’t be wrong to say our madness attained another level from that period.

The tales of what happened thereafter should be left for another day. Nigeria took a plunge and hit the ground in a cataclysmic fall. Everything that could go wrong started going haywire. We waltzed from one crisis to another. Our propensity for self-destruction became amplified and exposed to the world at large. The battle between the military regimes and civil societies raged endlessly and left many of us badly bruised. Some were flagrantly murdered, callously maimed, maliciously jailed or compulsorily forced into exile.
For six agonising years, we groped in total darkness and our country was on the brink of collapse. Miraculously, we managed to pull through and Democracy returned. But there was a major snag. Those who fought and struggled for the Democracy were not the prime beneficiaries. The ubiquitous owners of our country still succeeded in keeping power to themselves while the June 12 activists mercifully got the token compensation of some parts of South West Nigeria under the aegis of Alliance for Democracy. The People’s Democratic Party was an umbrella of hard-core Republicans who dreamt of ruling Nigeria as a one party nation for as long as possible, or even indefinitely. The rest is history.
My heart skipped a few beats as I was teleported back to 1993 with the rumours of plans to postpone the February 14 & 28 2015 elections. What started as a joke was confirmed days ago by no less a personage than our National Security Adviser, Colonel Sambo Dasuki. His main reason was that INEC was not yet ready to hold a credible election resting his influential view on the fact that about 50% of eligible voters were yet to collect their Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVC). This may at first seemingly be a very sound argument, no doubt, but on closer reflection and consideration of the facts it is not exactly so. Even if this were the case, what is needed is to encourage and empower INEC to fulfil its constitutional duty by ensuring that the neccessary materials are provided well in time before the election.

Fortunately, the fears expressed by the NSA are unfounded.  I was opportuned to catch and watch the highly informative interview of Professor Attahiru Jega, conducted by the cerebral Kadaria Ahmed on Channels Television, just before this bombshell from The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, in London. For the first time since 1993, I saw a ray of hope in our electoral process. Jega was very confident, coherent and proficient. He answered every question fired at him by the fiery interviewer with calmness and candour and I was particular elated and extremely proud of this famous scholar. Perhaps, the beautiful ones have been born after all, contrary to the cynicism conveyed in the title of Ayi Kwei Armah’s novel, The Beautiful Ones Are Not Yet Born.
Prof Jega has, on Friday January 23,at a press conference, re-affirmed the commitment of his Commission to conduct the elections as scheduled even in the troubled areas of the North East of Nigeria. Whilst he was quick to admit that a significant proportion of PVC are yet to be collected, Jega is confident that with the further extension of time which has been granted for this purpose most people would have done so before the election.  There is therefore no cause for alarm. More importantly there is no need for anyone to distract voters from analysing the presentation of the issues by the candidates through scare-mongering that raising the spectre of postponement will cause.
As far as I can see and feel, I believe Nigeria is heading towards a successful election. The campaigns have been quite serious, minus a few skirmishes here and there which I find objectionable and condemnable. The near-physical attack on the President is as unreasonable as it is suicidal. The burning of party offices and shooting of members of rival parties are totally reprehensible. But the situation is looking so good, expectations so high and the mood so exhilarating that all combined we should have a commendable election next month.

There is no justification for postponing one of our most anticipated elections. It is an opportunity to show the world that we are ready to join the comity of other nations in their march towards global relevance, importance and general advancement. INEC has come a long way under Jega. A lot of investment has gone into keeping INEC alive and running. In its so-called imperfection, INEC can be assisted to help itself and help the rest of us. We can’t afford to throw the baby away with the bathwater.
We already have more than enough problems to tackle. There is mutual suspicion everywhere. No matter the righteousness of those in favour of postponing the elections, they would always be countered by a preponderance of doubting Thomas. Can anyone blame them? A woman whose child was once killed by a witch would forever suspect every woman. Such is the situation we’ve found ourselves today. Politicians have pulled all manner of stunts and they are capable of anything. This is why Nigerians find it difficult to believe whatever they are told no matter how plausible.
My humble advice is that every Nigerian and friend of Nigeria must support our Government and INEC to bring these forthcoming elections to fruition. We’ve crawled for far too long. Now it is time to walk, if not yet run. While it is true that Rome was not built in a day, I’m sure it did not take forever.

TRIBUTE TO PETER ENAHORO AT 80
Long before I came into journalism, one name that inspired me endlessly was no other than that of Mr Peter Osajele Aizegbeobor Enahoro, aka Peter Pan. He was not just an accomplished prose stylist but a man of style himself. His charisma complemented his amazing writing skills. Journalists don’t come better than Peter Pan.
As an undergraduate student at the then University of Ife (now Obafemi  Awolowo University, Ile-Ife), I encountered an international magazine of superlative content and quality. It was known as AFRICA NOW. I was stunned to discover that it was owned by a Nigerian.  That was not all. Africa Now was published out of London with a premium address at 50 Pall Mall, not far from Trafalgar Square.  To be honest, that was a big deal at that time and even now.
I had missed buying the maiden edition in April 1981 but was lucky to obtain the second issue in May 1981 which I have kept as fresh as ever till this day. For a magazine published 34 years ago, it is interesting to note that it attracted adverts from Ghana Airways, Union Bank, UAC of Nigeria, BEAM Office Furniture, Nigeria Reinsurance Corporation, NAL Merchant Bankers, African Alliance Insurance, Mercury Assurance Company Limited, NICON, NNPC, Nigeria Airways, The United Insurance, NIDB, Social Security Bank Ghana, Ark Stewart Wrightson Insurance,  Sun Insurance, First Bank, BEWAC, Eagle Gas, Honda, African Continental Bank, UNIPETROL, MANDILAS, National Bank of Nigeria, WEMA BANK, SANYO, NIGERLUX, etcetera. Such was the aura of that publication that it seems organisations jostled to have their products featured in it.

That particular edition did a special focus on the second anniversary of what was described as the foremost airport in Africa, Murtala Muhammed Airport, which today has refused to live up to that reputation despite various expensive renovations by various Ministers. The Spotlight was titled, MURTALA MUHAMMED AIRPORT: TWO YEARS OF SAFE AND EFFICIENT OPERATIONS. It was perfectly garnished with a panoramic picture, perhaps an aerial shot, of the spectacular edifice that reminded one of Schipol Airport in Amsterdam. There was an interview with the then Managing Director, Alhaji A. T. Ahmed.
The magazine covered stories from every part of Africa authored by reputable international correspondents. As I look through the pages of my bound volume, I feel a sense of nostalgia. Peter Enahoro comes from the family of the illustrious CHIEF Anthony Enahoro, who passed on a few years ago.  He was born on January 21, 1935, and attended schools in Akure, , Warri and Ughelli. He would later pick up a career in the media as an Assistant Public Officer at the Federal Ministry of Information.

At the age of 20, Peter Enahoro joined Sunday Times in 1955 and rose to become Editor in 1958. He also worked as Editor of the Daily Times. He was such a radical writer who toyed at a time with the idea of revolution. During the Nigerian civil war, he fled into exile. Africa Now had originally started in London but he started publishing the magazine in Nigeria on his return home. One of his most popular works is the book, ‘How To Be A Nigerian’, a satire about the Nigerian way of life was published in 1966.
Whilst in exile Peter Enahoro worked as a freelance journalist and later was corresponding editor with Africa Magazine.  He returned to Nigeria in 1979 but before then had published another book, ‘You gotta cry to Laugh’, in 1972. In 1992, he published ‘The Complete Nigerian’ and in 2009 published ‘Then Spoke the Thunder’, his autobiography, which was a chronicle of the crisis of leadership in Nigeria. In 1996 he was made Administrator of Daily Times and tried to turn it around.
Please, help me raise a toast to one of Africa’s finest journalists and a man od distinction and tase. May you live long in good health and happiness, our own icon, Peter Pan!

ThisDay

“Buhari A Most Distinguished International Fellow”-US War College Commandant Letter To The Nigerian Army In 1980 Reveals

Following recent widespread smear campaigns against the presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC), General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), over his education, training and qualifications, SaharaReporters has unearthed a letter written by the United States Army War College, Pennsylvania praising Buhari’s intelligence and brilliance throughout his stint as a fellow at the prestigious military academy. 

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by SAHARAREPORTERS, NEW YORK 

Following recent widespread smear campaigns against the presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC), General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), over his education, training and qualifications, SaharaReporters has unearthed a letter written by the United States Army War College, Pennsylvania praising Buhari’s intelligence and brilliance throughout his stint as a fellow at the prestigious military academy.  Major General Muhammadu Buhari in military uniform Corbis
The letter obtained from a source within the Nigerian military shows that Buhari attended and graduated from the College with the Class of 1980 on June 9 of that year.
In a letter dated 13 June 1980 and addressed to then Chief of Defense Staff, General Alani Akinrinade, the Commandant of the War College, Major-General DeWitt C. Smith Jr described Buhari as “a most distinguished International Fellow” who graduated with the Class of 1980. Lieutenant General, DeWitt C. Smith, Jr, was the longest-serving commandant of the U.S. Army War College, he died in 2005 at the age of 84.
He also informed that while the College has no Class Standings in its grading system, “it should be pointed out that his performance was outstanding in every respect.”
During the ten-month course which was divided into the ‘Common Overview’ and ‘Advanced Courses’, Buhari took the prescribed courses, audited three other courses, and took it upon himself to visit US Army facilities in furtherance of his personal professional understanding of logistics management.
The letter gave profound commendations of Buhari for being “a man of extraordinary aptitude who demonstrated a broad knowledge of current international problems. His keen interest, sense of responsibility and solid grasp of the strategic implications of the important global issues marked him as a key member of any student seminar. Infact, he was at his best in the “give and take” environment of our seminar group discussions where students are encouraged to express their views even though they differ from the group consensus.”
The former Nigerian military ruler turned civil democrat was also credited for his thorough understanding of the major issues in American and global affairs as a result of his “obvious research and analytical facilities far exceeding the majority of his contemporaries.”
Buhari, the War College Commandant continued, also towered over and above his colleagues in written aspects of the Course Work. “his written efforts were “first-rate” and noted for their outstanding quality of research, logic and  communications skills. Brigadier Buhari’s oral presentations consistently reflected those gifts of mind and hearing which are essential in command or group endeavours. His individual presentations were of exceptional value in that he avoided vague generalities and focused on the issues which involved hard, detailed choices.”
Among his class mates, Buhari was described as having the remarkable ability to deal with wide range of issues, no matter their complexities, simultaneously. He also displayed an outstanding “political sensitivity and intimate knowledge of current political-military problems.” He was a key motivator among his course mates as he was able “to effectively contrast his own Army’s command and management philosophies and practices with the United States Army’s in such a way as to be beneficial and educational to all.” He was admired and respected by his colleagues.
Buhari was equally an active participant in extra-curricular activities; he was the Assistant Coach of a junior level soccer team in the local community. Besides, “Muhammadu, his lovely wife Safinatu, and his young family were actively involved in the social life of the College and were a credit to Nigeria.” The Commandant concluded the letter with strong recommendations of Buhari for his exceptional potentials that qualify him to be worthy of the trust of the Nigerian Army and Government.
Following his emergence as the Presidential Candidate of the opposition All Progressive Congress (APC) in a presidential primary that was widely acclaimed as most democratically transparent, General Buhari’s educational training and credentials had been queried in public by key members of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).  It was speculated that he had no requisite qualifications for the office of President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Nigerian Army authorities also joined the fray by claiming it was not in possession of Buhari’s certificates.
READ FULL TEXT OF THE LETTER FROM THE WAR COLLEGE

My husband will obey rule of law — Buhari’s wife

The wife of the All Progressives Congress Presidential candidate, Mrs. Aisha Muhammadu Buhari, has said her husband, General Buhari, will be guided by provisions of the Nigerian Constitution in all of his actions.
Mrs. Buhari said this in an interview with newsmen shortly after the inaugural meeting of APC Women Presidential Campaign Initiative, in Abuja, on Saturday.

She said if the APC took over government in May 29, strict adherence to the provisions of the constitution as well as respect for the human person would be its guiding principle.
According to her, the subject of whether or not there will be an office for the First Lady was not issue because as a woman she has her role already carved out.
She said, “When my husband is elected as the president of this country, he will rule the country within the rule of law based on the constitution of the country.
“If the office of the first lady is constitutionally recognised, he will not tamper with it but if it is not that’s okay. For me, I will perform my duties and role as the wife of the President of Nigeria, traditionally.”
She said, “The wife of the president has some traditional roles, like receiving guests, visiting orphanages, helping the less privileged people, leading the fight for the right of women and malnourished children, infant mortality rate, kidnapping and girl child trafficking and so on.”
Earlier, she charged women at the gathering to rise up to the challenge of creating awareness among rural women so as to ensure that they not only collect their permanent voter cards but that they also come out to vote on election day. She urged women to go the extra mile to explain voting procedures to the female folk and ensure that they not only vote but also protect their votes.
Mrs. Buhari said the meeting was convened to workout modalities for enlightening women based on the peculiarities of each of the six geo-political zones.
In her remarks, the wife of Buhari’s running mate, Mrs. Oludolapo Osinbajo in a veiled response to a campaign pronouncement by President Goodluck Jonathan, said, there was nothing wrong with women playing their roles in the kitchen.
Mrs. Osinbajo said she is a trained lawyer, wife and mother and she takes delight in cooking for her family.
She said an APC-led government would go beyond appointing a few women into political office by putting in place measures to empower them to contribute meaningfully to national growth.

Copyright PUNCH

Buhari momentum surges towards coronation

Buhari and Jonathan

by: Idowu Akinlotan

There is not one unbiased analyst who does not expect that as things stand in the 2015 electioneering, the APC candidate, Gen Buhari, would be crowned on February 14. The tide began to turn in favour of the general when the opposition managed a flawless presidential primary last December; and the tide became a mighty wave when, against all expectations, they again managed to select as running mate Prof Osinbajo, a law teacher of great repute, in a political masterstroke seldom seen in these parts. In rally after rally, the APC presidential candidate has attracted waves and waves of crowds on fire for a ticket that has somehow inexplicably become chic and sexy. Few people, except perhaps elitist critics, are interested in what Buhari and his running mate have to say, whether their programmes and manifestos promise the right things, or whether what they promise even angels would not struggle to implement.

But the phenomenon is not quite as inscrutable as circumstances make it. The PDP has tried to sully Gen Buhari’s reputation by alleging perjury against him, suggesting he did not have a school certificate as he claimed.  It has attempted to whip up emotions against him using some of his policies and actions as head of state in the 1980s. And it has tried to draw a wedge between him and the Yoruba using the animosities, prejudices and bigotries of the past, and projecting upon his idiosyncrasies a dismal future for Nigerians under his presidency. None has worked for the simple reason that the PDP misjudges the mood of the moment, the spirit of the time.

First, the PDP and Jonathan sympathisers are unable to appreciate that the leitmotif of this election is the incompetence of Dr Jonathan, his failure as a leader, his weakness in tackling the grave security challenges  facing the country. The election is thus not really about Buhari, what he can do or won’t do, what certificates he brandishes or does not hold, what acts of cruelty he performed in the past or acts of kindness . The election is strictly speaking about Dr Jonathan, by what margin to repudiate him, and about how to punish him for the humiliation and disgrace he has brought upon the country locally and internationally.

The PDP is already distressed. The more they abuse Gen Buhari and paint him as a monster, the more the crowds at his rallies swell. Though unfortunately the northern yokels have begun to stone Dr Jonathan, perhaps in anger, it is obvious that the president will be extremely lucky to get any sizable vote anywhere in the North, notwithstanding Governor Sule Lamido’s wailing last week that the president’s northern supporters were being stigmatised and intimidated. Nor is it likely that the even more discerning Southwest would leave a ticket on which their erudite son, Prof Osinbajo, is perched to vote for a president who in fact and by his own admission is a woeful failure. Increasingly too, parts of the South-South, a significantly larger part of the North-Central, and parts of the Southeast have begun to swing towards the Buhari column.

It is doubtful whether there is any magic by which the coronation of Buhari could be avoided next month. It will happen not because the voters happily trust Gen Buhari, but because they heartily distrust and loath Dr Jonathan. The elections, I think, are already lost and won. It would indeed be risky to try to procure a different outcome by the shenanigans the ruling party is accustomed to.

BOMBSHELL ON THE ECONOMY - PROF. CHARLES CHUKWUMA SOLUDO EX-CBN GOV. SLAMS GEJ, SAYS GEJ "OUTPERFORMED HIS PREDECESSORS EXCEPT THAT IT IS IN REVERSE ORDER."

In sum, the mismanagement of our economy has brought us once more to the brink. Government officials rely on the artificial construct of debt to GDP ratio to tell us we can borrow as much as we want. That is nonsense, especially for an economy with a mono but highly volatile source of revenue and forex earnings. The chicken will soon come home to roost. Today, the combined domestic and external debt of the Federal Government is in excess of $40 billion. Add to this the fact that abandoned capital projects littered all over the country amount to over $50 billion. No word yet on other huge contingent liabilities. If oil prices continue to fall, I bet that Nigeria will soon have a heavy debt burden even with low debt to GDP ratio. Furthermore, given the current and capital account regime, it is evident that Nigeria does not have enough foreign reserves to adequately cover for imports plus short term liabilities. In essence, we are approaching the classic of what the Shagari government faced, and no wonder the hasty introduction of ‘austerity measures’ again.
Fourth, poverty incidence and unemployment are also simultaneously at all-time high levels. According to the NBS, poverty incidence grew to 69% in 2010 and projected to be 71% in 2011, with unemployment at 24%. This is the worst record in Nigeria’s history, and the paradox is that this happened during the unprecedented oil boom.
One theme I picked up listening to the campaign rallies as well as to some of the propagandists is the confusion about measuring government “performance”. Most people seem to confuse ‘inputs’, or ‘processes’ with output. Earlier this month, I had a dinner with a group of friends (14 of us) and we were chit-chatting about Nigeria. One of us, an associate of President Jonathan veered off to repeat a propaganda mantra that Jonathan had outperformed his predecessors. He also reminded us that Jonathan re-based the GDP and that Nigeria is now the biggest economy in Africa; etc. It was fun listening to the response by others. In sum, the group agreed that the President had ‘outperformed’ his predecessors except that it is in reverse order. First, my friend was educated that re-basing the GDP is no achievement: it is a routine statistical exercise, and depending on the base year that you choose, you get a different GDP figure. Re-basing the GDP has nothing to do with government policy. Besides, as naira-dollar exchange rate continues to depreciate, the GDP in current dollars will also shrink considerably soon.
We were reminded of Jonathan’s agricultural ‘revolution’. But someone cut in and noted that for all the propaganda, the growth rate of the agricultural sector in the last five years still remains far below the performance under Obasanjo. One of us reminded him that no other president had presided over the slaughter of about 15,000 people by insurgents in a peacetime; no other president earned up to 50% of the amount of resources the current government earned from oil and yet with very little outcomes; no other president had the rate of borrowing; none had significant forex earnings and yet did not add one penny to foreign reserves but losing international reserves at a time of boom; no other president had a depreciating exchange rate at a time of export boom; at no time in Nigeria’s history has poverty reached 71% (even under Abacha, it was 67 -70%); and under no other president did unemployment reach 24%. Surely, these are unprecedented records and he surely ‘outperformed’ his predecessors! What a satire!
One of those present took the satire to some level by comparing Jonathan to the ‘performance’ of the former Governor of Anambra, Peter Obi. He noted that while Obi gloated about ‘savings’, there is no signature project to remember his regime except that his regime took the first position among all states in Nigeria in the democratization of poverty—- mass impoverishment of the people of Anambra. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, poverty rose under his watch in Anambra from 20% in 2004 (lowest in Nigeria then) to 68% in 2010 (a 238% deterioration!). Our friend likened it to a father who had no idea of what to do with his resources and was celebrating his fat bank account while his children were dying of kwashiorkor. He pointed out that since it is the likes of Peter Obi who are the advisers to Jonathan on how to manage the economy (thereby confusing micromanagement which you do as a trader with macro governance) it is little wonder that poverty is fast becoming another name for Nigeria. It was a very hilarious evening.
My advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting their time trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have decided to vote for him will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to the moon. His record on the economy is a clear ‘F’ grade. As one reviews the laundry list of micro interventions the government calls its achievements, one wonders whether such list is all that the government could deliver with an unprecedented oil boom and an unprecedented public debt accumulation. I can clearly see why reasonable people are worried. Everywhere else in the world, government performance on the economy is measured by some outcome variables such as: income (GDP growth rate), stability of prices (inflation and exchange rate), unemployment rate, poverty rate, etc. On all these scores, this government has performed worse than its immediate predecessor— Obasanjo regime. If we appropriately adjust for oil income and debt, then this government is the worst in our history on the economy. All statistics are from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Despite presiding over the biggest oil boom in our history, it has not added one percentage point to the growth rate of GDP compared to the Obasanjo regime especially the 2003- 07 period. Obasanjo met GDP growth rate at 2% but averaged 7% within 2003- 07. The current government has been stuck at 6% despite an unprecedented oil boom. Income (GDP) growth has actually performed worse, and poverty escalated. This is the only government in our history where rapidly increasing government expenditure was associated with increasing poverty. The director general of NBS stated in his written press conference address in 2011 that about 112 million Nigerians were living in poverty. Is this the record to defend? Obama had a tough time in his re-election in 2012 because unemployment reached 8%. Here, unemployment is at a record 24% and poverty at an all-time 71% but people are prancing around, gloating about ‘performance’. As I write, the Naira exchange rate to the dollar is $210 at the parallel market. What a historic performance! Please save your breathe and save us the embarrassment. The President promised Nigeria nothing in the last election and we did not get value for money. He should this time around present us with his plan for the future, and focus on how he would redeem himself in the second term—if he wins!
Sadly the government’s economic team is very weak, dominated by self-interested and self-conflicted group of traders and businessmen, and so-called economic team meetings have been nothing but showbiz time. The very people government exists to regulate have seized the levers of government as policymakers and most government institutions have largely been “privatized” to them. Mention any major government department or agency and someone will tell you whom it has been ‘allocated’ to, and the person subsequently nominates his minion to occupy the seat. What do you then expect? The economy seems to be on auto pilot, with confusion as to who is in charge, and government largely as a constraint. There are no big ideas, and it is difficult to see where economic policy is headed to. My thesis is that the Nigerian economy, if properly managed, should have been growing at an annual rate of about 12% given the oil boom, and poverty and unemployment should have fallen dramatically over the last five years. This is topic for another day." Source Vanguard News

ON BUHARI I STILL STAND

PENDULUM BY DELE MOMODU, Email: dele.momodu@thisdaylive.com
Fellow Nigerians, let me reiterate here that I’m a latter day convert to Buharism. Truth is it took me years to see the light. I had resisted the conversion due to an overdose of poison from anti-Buhari elements that litter our socio-political landscape. Those who wish to continue the current charade and wish Nigeria would remain in perpetual servitude would do anything and everything possible to make a Buhari Presidency impossible and unrealisable. However lies can run faster than truth but truth will always catch up especially when lies become predictable.
I have received many reactions, and read many comments, on my mathematical calculations about the 2015 elections, earlier published. I have also followed the interventions of my two great Brothers, Simon Kolawole and Segun Adeniyi. We are all committed to seeing a better and greater Nigeria. I don’t think anyone prays for the personal downfall of President Goodluck Jonathan who has obviously faced too many challenges in the last four years. What I see personally is the sad reality that the present problems have overwhelmed him beyond redemption, and asking him to continue is to extend these tragic times for another four years. When Dr Jonathan became President, he inherited a burden heavier than an elephant.  If PDP had managed Nigerian affairs a tiny bit, all the hullabaloo about APC would have been unnecessary. But PDP could not keep its own house in order not to talk of governing well.
The implosion of PDP had long been foretold. It is clear that no political party could ever sustain its level of recklessness and rascality forever. Any serious observer and chronicler of events would have seen and known that a day would come when the rampaging monkey would go to the market and fail to return. Such was the case of PDP which behaved like Nigerians were too docile to react or move against it. Such is the kind of complacency and rudeness that has set Burkina Faso on fire today.
The first sign of trouble came from within during the Nigerian Governors’ Forum election in which Rotimi Amaechi roundly defeated Jonah David Jang the favoured candidate of Mr President. But rather than see the handwriting on the wall that something terrible was about to hit its household, the PDP gladiators chose to dig deeper and engage in unholy wars with whosoever challenged its purported invincibility. Before our very eyes, the Nigerian Governors Forum was dichotomised and decimated in a vindictive manner. Seven PDP Governors rebelled and started a nationwide consultation with different socio-political groups. Eventually, five of them chose to challenge fate and decamped to the new amalgamation of political parties known as APC but two later chickened out for obvious and personal reasons.
The birth of APC was bound to change the political configuration and alter the electoral calculations ahead of the 2015 elections. But again the PDP underrated the influence of the confluence of political parties brought about by the emergence and existence of APC. The arrogant assumption by PDP that its power and glory cannot be challenged by APC is what has become its seeming albatross and possible waterloo.
 However, APC still has a long and dangerous bridge to cross. My mathematical calculation did not write off the victory of President Jonathan who controls an awesome arsenal which he seems ready to deploy against his enemies. I only opined that APC has a stronger and better chance than the opposition has ever had if it manages its internal contradictions very well. Let’s now examine the defection of the Speaker House of Representatives, Waziri Aminu Tambuwal from PDP to APC. I will address this controversial move from its genesis to revelation before moving on with my forecast.
There was nothing surprising about Tambuwal’s dramatic elopement, if it could be called that. Tambuwal from Day One had been living with a lover while pretending to be in a marriage elsewhere. What Tambuwal did this week was to boldly come out by openly revealing the love of his life and damning all consequences. It was sweet revenge against PDP, and payback time for APC, after he’d been rejected by the original lover when it mattered most. Tambuwal would not have been made Speaker but for the benevolence of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who encouraged members of ACN in the National Assembly to support his candidacy. Since then the Speaker has remained fervently in romance with Tinubu and company.
 On the possibility of Tambuwal jumping into the APC Presidential race, my answer is a big NO. That was the thinking once upon a time and I was probably the first columnist to write about it. Two major factors affected and aborted that dream.
Tinubu had hoped to groom Tambuwal for the Presidential race. He was seen as a sellable candidate who by virtue of his position and exalted office would readily have his foot-soldiers in most of the Federal constituencies. A lot of work had been done even to persuade the People’s General, Muhammadu Buhari, to come out and anoint Tambuwal publicly. General Babangida had already endorsed him openly. General Obasanjo, the most vocal of the Generals, had no objection to him as everyone knew him to be humble and likeable.
Let me quickly explain before I continue this enthralling saga. Nigeria is a Mafia nation controlled by four different groups. The political Capos are about ten members including Generals Yakubu Jack Dan-Yumma Gowon (the Head of State who fought to keep Nigeria as one country and most senior Army General around), Olusegun Matthew Okikiolakan Aremu Obasanjo (only person to have tasted power as military Head of State and civilian President and has the widest international influence), Muhammadu Buhari (most feared of the lot but closest to the poor people of Nigeria), Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (only military Head of State and military President), Abdulsalami Abubakar (only man who kept his word of serving for only one year without the temptation of elongation), Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma (who has never governed Nigeria but is the richest, very cerebral and most taciturn power-house in the country), Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan (who by virtue of his present position is a member of that Mafia even if he looks more like a stranger in the fraternity) and Senator David Alechenu Bonaventure Mark (retired Army General and current Senate President who has worked his way up the Mafioso ladder in Nigeria)… There are of course a couple of others who have been security chiefs at one time or the other.
A few Royal icons are sometimes contacted or consulted by the original Mafia. They include The Sultan of Sokoto, The Ooni of Ife, The Obi of Onitsha, The Alaafin of Oyo, The Emir of Kano, The Emir of Zazzau, The Shehu of Borno, The Lamido of Adamawa, and a few others.
There also exists a super caucus of stupendously wealthy business men who hold the economy of Nigeria together and form the third axis of power in the country. They include Dr Michael Adeniyi Agbolade Isola Adenuga (the enigmatic billionaire who controls substantial interests in oil & gas, telecoms, banking and real estate whose true worth has never been revealed); Alhaji Aliko Dangote (with interests in cement, sugar, rice, salt, refineries, and one of the world’s richest men); Dr Tony Elumelu (Group Chairman UBA, Heirs Holdings and Transcorp Corporation of Nigeria); Mr Jim Ovia (with vast interests in banking, telecoms and hospitality); Mr Femi Otedola (with a firm grip on the diesel market and petroleum products) plus two controllers of wealth, both ladies, Diezani Alison-Madueke (Minister of Petroleum Resources) and Ngozi  Okonjo-Iweala (Minister of Finance). These men and women have unfettered access to power. Add to the mix some very influential religious leaders who space constraint and time would not allow me to name and you have a cauldron of intrigues and machinations everywhere. All the above-mentioned interests have to be delicately managed with that of the political operatives in the process of seeking Presidential power in Nigeria even if there are occasional or accidental miracles like that of President Jonathan. Tambuwal had a robust network with most of these interest groups.
But the technical complexities of declaring his interest while retaining the Speakership became too knotty to untie. In the process, the steam of Tambuwal’s ambition slowly and steadily evaporated. Then something unexpected overtook the game. Tinubu came into the picture as a possible Vice Presidential candidate. It is still unclear who sold the idea to Tinubu or whether he had nursed the ambition secretly all along. The decision of Tinubu and his team was that such ambition could only be realised in conjunction with Buhari or Atiku since other Presidential aspirants would be too little in status to him. The small group then decided to amplify Buhari’s candidacy. This was how Buhari was cleverly persuaded into returning to the race at a time he had almost said goodbye to perpetual electioneering.
The next hurdle was how to sell what would naturally become a major combustible element in this season of religious conflagration in Nigeria, the Muslim/Muslim ticket, which I wrote agaist very early as a true friend of Tinubu. In fact, a very influential Yoruba man had called and lambasted me for saying the Muslim/Muslim ticket would not work this time. The man was livid as I tried to let him see reason with me. I was now convinced that many people were misleading Tinubu who ordinarily is a master tactician and strategist. The group again decided that for the Tinubu project to work, they must get a Christian candidate for Lagos as palliative to shut up the Christian groups. This was the main reason the Akinwumi Ambode Governorship project became a spiritual obligation.
The group also became very chummy with their erstwhile foe, General Obasanjo, hoping he would not openly attack the project.
Their worst fear was confirmed when Obasanjo gave a blistering attack against a Muslim/Muslim ticket last week thus forcing even the APC Chairman to promptly react that no such idea was ever contemplated. The plan B is now how to get a Christian within the group to step forward as replacement. Except Tinubu changes his mind today or tomorrow, Buhari or whoever gets the APC Presidential ticket would have to suffer some serious migraine because the group wants the reward of working for APC right here on earth and not in heaven.
 They are not willing to let go of that VP slot which they are convinced is rightly theirs. The candidate would have to do one of two things, succumb to pressure from Tinubu’s camp or call their bluff. Neither is going to be easy.
The first is the belief that no one can ignore Tinubu’s electoral value in the South West. Some party members are so scared of stepping on Tinubu’s toes even if they believe his influence has waned drastically in recent months. Tinubu’s camp unfortunately is not able to produce a Christian politician with national appeal at this time. The best candidate for the job would have been the wonder-man of Lagos State, Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola, but there are problems with him on two fronts. The first is that he is a Muslim like Tinubu. And even if his incredible popularity provides him an automatic waiver, he is locked in a battle of wits with his godfather on the issue of who becomes the next Governor of Lagos.
Tinubu is insisting on Mr Ambode while Fashola prefers his former Attorney-General, Mr Supo Shasore.
About ten aspirants have already picked up nomination forms. Ambode has launched his campaign and so has Mr Adeyemi Ikuforiji, the three-Term Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly and probably the most formidable politician in the race. No one knows how things would pan out.
With Fashola out of the Vice Presidential equation, Tinubu is relying on his friends, the three Musketeers: Yemi Osibajo (a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God and former Attorney-General in Lagos); Yemi Cardoso aka Headmaster ( an accountant, banker with a Master’s degree in Public Administration and Management from Havard, served under Governor Tinubu as Commissioner of Economic Planning and Budget); and Olawale Edun (with an exceptionally brilliant background in Economics and great career in Merchant banking, corporate finance and stockbroking; he was a Commissioner of Finance under Governor Tinubu).
There is a fourth personality under consideration, Professor Robert Ajayi Borrofice, a distinguished Senator of the Federal Republic from Ondo State who was Director General, National Space Research and Development Agency, with a PhD in Genetics. They are all distinguished and honourable men but many doubt their electoral value in a complicated environment like Nigeria.
Many APC members believe the South West should not produce the Vice President so soon after Obasanjo left power. Their greatest consideration is that the region that lays the golden eggs, the South-South cannot be ignored if peace must reign and President Jonathan is to be pushed aside. The conclusion is that both Governors Adams Oshiomhole and Rotimi Amaechi have the national appeal as well as Executive experience that Buhari would require after so many years out of power.
Amaechi in his case has the additional advantage of legislative exposure as two-Term Speaker of Rivers State while Oshiomhole comes with intimidating Labour credentials.
I will still place my bet on Buhari emerging as the APC Presidential candidate. He’s a safer risk for his Party and one man the other aspirants can unite around. He would now have to be bold enough to take the difficult risk of who becomes his running mate.
I wish him the best of wisdom.

2015 RE-ELECTION BID: Nigerians Lambast Jonathan

Adams Odunayo

Many Nigerians think and have described President Goodluck Jonathan as an insensitive leader amidst the reactions coming from his steps to formally declare his intention for a 2015 comeback.

Goodluck Jonathan

From his said failed administration in terms of the kidnapped Chibok girls, many Nigerians are worried that Mr president is solely about his selfish gains and not his real responsibilities of protecting lives and the property of the citizens  are his utmost priority

READ ALSO: Jonathan’s 2015 Declaration: More Details Emerge

The President who had a change in cabinet on Thursday set up a Presidential Declaration Committee with a former Minister of Defence, Dr. Bello Haliru, appointed as the chairman, also former Senate President, Ken Nnamani, was appointed as the Deputy Chairman and Senator Anyim Pius Anyim will serve as secretary of the committee.

Mr President who had made it known some years back that he would not stay in office beyond 2015 has however made Nigerians to have many thoughts ranging from being able to have secured the release of the Chibok girls even before he declares for a re-election.

READ ALSO: Amaechi Accuses GEJ, Minister

However, according to punch, the Executive Director, Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project, Adetokunbo Mumuni, has made it known that the fact that the President had chosen to concern himself about returning to power at this time amounted to insensitivity.

Mumuni, made it known on Thursday that the President could simply have delayed his declaration until when the Chibok girls are rescued.

“But in Nigeria, politicians at all levels, not just the President, think mostly about the moment rather than the future. It has become customary that they don’t bother about the situation in the country when their political career is concerned.

“There were reports that the girls would be released last Monday but this is the end of the week and nothing has happened. What the President should have done was to address the nation on this issue and tell us why nothing has happened.”

Mr. David Anyaele, who is the Executive Director, Centre for Citizens with Disabilities,  also expressed worry over the President’s seeming reluctance to prove to Nigerians that he could provide adequate security for them. Urging that Chibok girls must be rescued, he said:

“Nigerians should demand that the President should produce the girls right now to show he has the capacity to provide security for the country beyond 2015 and that he is not insensitive.”

Speaking on behalf of the Chibok girls, the spokesperson for the BringBack Our Girls Campaign, said it would be unfair to the abducted girls for the President to put politics above their safe return.

He said, “For us at BBOG campaign, one of the things we have been demanding is that we need to see a resolve from the Presidency that rescuing the Chibok girls and other boys and girls who have been kidnapped in the past remain number one on the agenda of the Federal Government of Nigeria.

“Unfortunately, this is a time we have different political intrigues and the 2015 elections close by. Sometimes we feel they have placed politics above the return of the girls.

“We demand that the government should rescue the girls and communicate with the families of the girls who have been kept in the dark since the news broke that there was a ceasefire and a negotiation.”

An Abuja-based lawyer and social commentator, Mr. Jide Oluyemi, said it is a shame for the president to seek re-election in the midst of the security crisis in the country, especially in the North-East, making it known that the president is totally insensitive to the plight of Nigerians.

Oluyemi said, “Six months ago, Boko Haram abducted over 200 Chibok schoolgirls and they have yet to return home. There are thousands of people displaced and yet President Goodluck Jonathan still has the gut to declare his ambition to seek re-election.

“This is insensitivity at its greatest height; this is unfair to many Nigerians who have lost their loved ones to the insurgency in the North. This display of insensitivity must stop. He should address the insecurity first and lay aside his ambition for now. He was not properly advised on this one.”

Fred Agbaje, a Lagos-based lawyer, says that though the President has the right to seek Nigerians’ mandate for re-election, the timing was wrong.

“There is no law or any process which bars the President from declaring his interest. Once the necessary provisions of the law are met, he can declare. But the question is whether he can still go ahead to declare in the face of mounting insecurity, unemployment, corruption and abduction of Nigerians, among other problems confronting the country.

“Yes, he can still declare but it is now left for Nigerians whether in the face of the social ills that I have highlighted to open their eyes and allow him to continue to rule us and we continue to suffer or we open our eyes and reject his coming back and say we don’t want him.

“Just like the governor of Kano State said, we have had many opportunities to reject Jonathan and vote him out. Just on Thursday, we heard that some group of girls and women were abducted by the Boko Haram insurgents while this government told us it had entered into a ceasefire agreement with the insurgents.

“I am sure the ceasefire agreement the President is telling Nigerians about is not true or done with the wrong people. Otherwise, the original sect would have told us by themselves if there was any ceasefire agreement. That is why they are still going ahead, kidnapping, maiming, and killing people. I agree with Kwankwanso that we have lost opportunities to vote the President out especially in the midst of all the social crises facing the country.”

 Naij.com