Tuesday, 24 March 2015

NIGERIA Elections Special Report III


 President Goodluck Jonathan regains lost momentum, but opposition still poised for landslide upset win in cliffhanger historic poll





Goodluck Jonathan regains lost momentum, but General Buhari still poised for upset



Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, largest economy and geopolitically most important state, is set to hold its first truly competitive free and fair democratic national elections this Saturday, 28 March. Despite jettisoning the outward trappings of autocratic military rule 15 years ago, the country’s politics largely retained the substantive autocratic diktats of quasi-military rule under the dominant People Democratic Party (PDP). In 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 Nigeria held mostly rigged, pre-ordained, non-free, non-fair and non-competitive elections. However due to major electoral reforms, launched by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua, particularly promoting the exclusive use of secure biometric voter ID cards, and unique security verification, the country is poised to hold its first truly open, transparent, free and fair polls on March 28.

Regardless of who wins the March polls, Nigeria’s politics is poised for a dramatic change if the electoral commission is able to stand firmly behind its decision to insist that only those voters who are biometrically registered and verified can vote. That simple bold act by the electoral commission, will powerfully finally transfer political power in Nigeria from the brazen ‘Tammany Hall’ corrupt political and corporatist elites, who spend all their time in Abuja, the country’s capital, sucking the state dry, -- to the ordinary citizens in the 36 federal states to create ‘a government by the people, for the people and of the people.’ The fundamentally altered dynamic of the citizens of Africa’s most populous and largest economy, being empowered to truly have the right, choice and chance, to regularly freely change their leaders when they do not deliver socio-economic goods and security will help to powerfully transform Nigeria into ‘the China of Africa,’ an economic behemoth, that much like China’s role in Asia, help to catalyze a complete economic transformation of the African continent.

The six week postponement of Nigeria’s originally scheduled February 14 presidential elections allowed embattled President Goodluck Jonathan to take several pragmatic steps to claw back lost electoral momentum. However Jonathan’s valiant efforts notwithstanding, after several simulations, DaMina Advisors’s proprietary VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral Forecast Statistical Model, (reproduced below) continues to still give the odds of an upset victory to opposition leader Retired General Muhammadu Buhari. Despite the bi-variate model’s heavy discount on frontier markets political challengers and favoring incumbency, Buhari still emerges on top.



Jonathan in late February bypassed the dispirited Nigerian army and authorized regional forces from neighbors Chad, Cameroon and Niger and foreign mercenaries to enter Nigerian territory and dismantle known Boko Haram camps. Additionally, Jonathan sensing that the ethnic Yoruba, will be the ‘swing voters’ in the forthcoming election has spent the past few weeks wooing ethnic Yoruba chieftains and business elites. Finally, Jonathan’s campaign has sought to convince many disgruntled wealthy political and business elites that Buhari election will trigger a ‘Putin-style’ anti-oligarch campaign aimed at sending many of them to jail to retrieving questionable funds and corrupt investments. Despite all these efforts the larger centrifugal forces of the forthcoming election are still running against the government and favoring ‘change.’

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DaMina Advisors Nigeria Elections VERITAS Model State 2006 Pop Census 2015 INEC Registered Voters PVC (Permanent Voter Cards Collected by Voters) % of Pop with PVCs 2003 Turnout 2011 Turnout DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 Turnout DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 PDP Vote Share DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 APC Vote Share DaMina Advisors Analytic Comment
Abia 2,845,380 1,396,162 1,183,127 42% 59.80% 77.95% 69% 692,647 122,232 Abia and most of the pan-ethnic Igbo eastern states to firmly re-elect Jonathan
Abuja (FCT) 1,406,239 881,472 569,109 40% 43.70% 42.19% 40% 100,163 127,480 Capital Abuja to tilt towards Buhari
Adamawa 3,178,950 1,559,012 1,381,571 43% 77.60% 49.98% 60% 298,419 530,523 Boko Haram attacks; PDP elite confusion and unpopular Ribadu governorship quest
Akwa Ibom 3,902,051 1,680,759 1,587,566 41% 80.50% 76.22% 83% 1,185,912 131,768 Presidential stalwart Gov Akpabio to ensure PDP victory
Anambra 4,177,828 1,963,173 1,658,967 40% 48.20% 57.52% 55% 775,567 136,865 New Gov Obiano and pan-Igbo APGA party rooting heavily for Jonathan
Bauchi 4,653,066 2,054,125 1,967,081 42% 81.60% 63.80% 77% 151,465 1,363,187 PDP Party Chairman Muaazu's home state, but the anti-Jonathan wave strong
Bayelsa 1,704,515 610,373 548,585 32% 97.00% 85.61% 95% 469,040 52,116 Jonathan to win home state massively, but Buhari to make small in-roads
Benue 4,253,641 2,015,452 1,607,800 38% 71.10% 43.82% 55% 495,202 389,088 Senate President Mark stays in PDP and rallies state for Jonathan
Borno 4,171,104 1,934,079 1,407,777 34% 62.00% 49.46% 45% 82,355 551,145 Heart of Boko Haram insurgency; PDP will get very few votes
Cross Rivers 2,892,988 1,175,623 983,968 34% 96.00% 63.24% 85% 736,008 100,365 Cross Rivers and other pan-ethnic Igbo eastern states are firmly behind Jonathan
Delta 4,112,445 2,275,264 1,939,952 47% 72.90% 68.82% 75% 1,309,468 145,496 PDP Gov Uduaghan to assure Jonathan victory with large margin
Ebonyi 2,176,947 1,074,273 848,392 39% 80.50% 47.87% 66% 481,547 78,391 Ebonyi firmly behind Jonathan; but PDP Gov Elechi unpopularity to give APC room
Edo 3,233,366 1,779,738 1,224,608 38% 78.00% 37.52% 55% 383,915 289,620 Popular Gov Oshiomole will pull large parts of state to APC, but PDP still strong
Ekiti 2,398,957 732,021 522,107 22% 43.20% 34.24% 40% 98,156 110,687 Ekiti despite recent PDP governorship gain will tilt towards APC
Enugu 3,267,837 1,429,221 1,223,606 37% 77.40% 62.46% 70% 735,874 119,793 Enugu, a major ethnic Igbo state is firmly behind Jonathan
Gombe 2,365,040 1,120,023 1,070,198 45% 80.00% 58.41% 73% 218,748 562,496 Buhari to carry Gombe as he did in 2011; Boko Haram sinks Jonathan further here
Imo 3,927,563 1,803,030 1,707,449 43% 64.60% 83.56% 78% 599,315 732,496 Opposition Gov Rochas Okorochas cottails to help Buhari
Jigawa 4,361,002 1,831,276 1,757,658 40% 70.10% 56.64% 65% 434,142 708,336 Gov Lamido is in PDP, but heart is with Buhari/Obasanjo; APC wins
Kaduna 6,113,503 3,407,222 3,174,519 52% 83.60% 65.81% 75% 904,738 1,476,151 Opposition to topple PDP in Kaduna with pro-Buhari Muslim wave

NIGERIA Elections Special Report III.

President Goodluck Jonathan regains lost momentum, but opposition still poised for landslide upset win in cliffhanger historic poll   (FULL REPORT and 36 state-by-state statistical model attached)


Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, largest economy and geopolitically most important state, is set to hold its first truly competitive free and fair democratic national elections this Saturday, 28 March. Despite jettisoning the outward trappings of autocratic military rule 15 years ago, the country’s politics largely retained the substantive autocratic diktats of quasi-military rule under the dominant People Democratic Party (PDP). In 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 Nigeria held mostly rigged, pre-ordained, non-free, non-fair and non-competitive elections. However due to major electoral reforms, launched by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua, particularly promoting the exclusive use of secure biometric voter ID cards, and unique security verification, the country is poised to hold its first truly open, transparent, free and fair polls on March 28.
The six week postponement of Nigeria’s originally scheduled February 14 presidential elections allowed embattled President Goodluck Jonathan to take several pragmatic steps to claw back lost electoral momentum. However Jonathan’s valiant efforts notwithstanding, after several simulations, DaMina Advisors’s proprietary VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral Forecast Statistical Model, (reproduced below) continues to still give the odds of an upset victory to opposition leader Retired General Muhammadu Buhari. Despite the bi-variate model’s heavy discount on frontier markets political challengers and favoring incumbency, Buhari still emerges on top. 

Monday, 23 March 2015

OUR LAST COLLECTIVE JOURNEY TO THE PAST - Yahaya Balogun.

From Petra's Facebook.
 The administration of president Goodluck Ebele Azikwe Jonathan is our last collective journey to the past as a country.
 The battle between the incumbent government and the ordinary people is a battle for the survival of Nationhood, Leadership and Followership (NLF). Nigerian leaders have failed their followers. But Leadership influences the followership and the follwership engenders tranquillity of the society. The three (NLF) are intertwined but the buck of regulation of tranquility and organization of society rest squarley on the shoulders of leadership. Leadership strictly executes and adheres to all set of rules that govern the society. This is not the case with Nigerian leadership.
 In Nigeria, rather than place more emphasis on its entity as contraption or mere geographical expression, our problems in my opinion is leadership rather than the followership. This should be our urgent focus. Hypothetically, imagine how America or Britain will look like in terms of law and order if there are no set of rules strictly being executed by all branches of government through leadership? It will be unmitigated chaos.
 The unification of minds of ordinary Nigerians this time around will certainly veer Nigeria away from this famished road, and put Nigeria on the new road to change and recovery.
 I have not in my lifetime witnessed in the history of elections in Nigeria where incumbent is so rattled and intimidated by the collective power of the people. From the crannies of the north to south and to the east, it is a resounding and defeaning clamour for change.
 Inspite of all the intimidating resources, lies and deceitful campaigns by the government, the wind of change is blowing across Nigeria. Power truly resides in the hands of the people.
 The unprecedented collective participation of the Nigerian people in this forthcoming elections, is a manifestation of the determined minds of the suffering people to effect change through ballots.
 And change is coming to Nigeria.
 Yahaya Balogun
 Arizona, USA.

APC Has Been Vindicated!!!The "Shady Deals" Of Nigeria Election Debate Group Exposed..



You Wont Believe Why Dokpesi Is Doing This…

The debates, the final lap of the series of debates organised by the NEDG, is holding on March 22, according to the organisers.
But there have been allegations that the group is actually a one-man show run by Raymond Dokpesi, the Chairman of DAAR Communications Limited (owners of Africa Independent Television, AIT), who uses it as a bargaining tool for private gains and political advantage.
When it was incorporated in 2011, the NEDG listed six organisations as shareholders, each with a representative.

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They include Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria, BON, represented by Abubakar Aji; DAAR Communications, represented by Tony Akiotu; Nigeria Union of Journalists, represented by Mohammed Garba; Alliance for Credible Election represented by Emma Ezeazu; Nigeria Guild of Editors, represented by Gbenga Adefaye; and Transition Monitoring Group, TMG, represented by Moshood Erubami.
At a press conference on Friday in Lagos, a pressure group, Value and Integrity Group, accused Mr. Dokpesi of having turned the NEDG into a private estate put at the service of President Goodluck Jonathan and his Peoples Democratic Party.
“Our investigation reveals as follows: First, a First Bank account was opened for the NEDG and had Dr. Dokpesi as the sole signatory, though he is not listed as one of the Directors,” the group said in a statement signed by Sina Odugbemi and Popoola Ajayi, Coordinator and Secretary respectively.
“He also used the DAAR communications office address, a personal address as the address listed in the bank account documentation. These two moves effectively turned the NEDG into Dokpesi’s private company.”
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According to the group, an initial N1 million was paid into the said NEDG account, and on March 28th, 2011, another N20 million was paid into his (Mr. Dokpesi’s) personal account.
“The N20m was paid into his personal current account number 2017171535 because the NEDG account opening was in process then hence he received the N20m in his personal current account instead of NEDG,” the group said.
“A text message from Dokpesi to the banker confirms this. The text message reads – ‘He sent about N20 million to the account since last week and I utilised about N50 million for the NEDG DEBATE. As soon as the sponsors pay, I will pay in.daar’”

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The group, brandishing copies of Mr. Dokpesi’s bank account opening documents and NEDG’s certificate of registration at the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC), also said that Mr. Dokpesi tried to open another First Bank account in 2012.
“The First Bank account was opened by Dokpesi at the Maitama branch of the First Bank in Abuja with account number 2021069251 with Chief Raymond Dokpesi as sole signatory to the account with the help of his aide banker.
“The second account which Dokpesi equally instructed the banker to open in the Bwari branch of the First bank is pending to be opened because the banker left. However, before then, Dokpesi in fact signed the application forms, attached his passport photos entered his personal details in 2012. The account was yet to be approved before one of the manager handling it was eased out of the bank.”
The NEDG began organising election presidential debates in 1999 and describes itself as a coalition of broadcast organisations, civil societies and professional groups committed to entrenching enduring democratic cultures through organised television debates.
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“The Nigerian Elections Debate Group has since transformed into a broad based non-partisan, non-profit making organisation with the primary mandate of organising and hosting live televised debates for all Presidential, Vice Presidential and Gubernatorial candidates in Nigeria,” the NEDG stated on its website.
But in their press briefing on Friday, the Value and Integrity Group described the NEDG as the non-profit wing of DAAR Communications, available to do the bidding of the ruling party and which had kept other NEDG directors in the dark about their financial transactions.

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“An Organisation on the board of the Group, Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), had last year dissociated itself from the planned Presidential debate. TMG accused the organisers of the debate of fraudulently using its name in the promotion of the event and warned NEDG to desist from such shenanigan forthwith.
“Chief Dokpesi’s name does not reflect in the NEDG registration documents from the CAC only that of DAAR representative, Tony Akiotu. But Chief Dokpesi has opened the account in his name and went ahead to single handedly organise the 2011 election debate with AIT staff – Imoni Amarere and Nancy Ilo as moderators.
“Again, he is accused to be the sole organiser of the 2015 presidential election debate for the NEDG which has generated unpleasant credibility crisis for the NEDG. “It is alleged that for the 2015 debate, well over 250 million has been paid to the organisers by the Presidency.
“Again, he is accused to be the sole organiser of the 2015 presidential election debate for the NEDG which has generated unpleasant credibility crisis for the NEDG.
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“Unfortunately, the refusal of the leading opposition to attend the integrity deficit presidential debate, AIT has chosen to unprofessionally attack and even defame both the candidate and the party.”

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In January, the All Progressives Congress said it would not participate in the presidential debate organised by the NEDG, accusing the organisers of bias and “wearing the toga of government control, especially being composed mainly of agencies and allies of the incumbent PDP administration”. The parties involved When PREMIUM TIMES contacted Mr. Erubami, who was the Chairman of TMG when NEDG was incorporated, he said issues like that did not arise during his time at the helm of the civil society organisation.
In January, the All Progressives Congress said it would not participate in the presidential debate organised by the NEDG, accusing the organisers of bias and “wearing the toga of government control, especially being composed mainly of agencies and allies of the incumbent PDP administration”.
“I only know to the extent of the time I was chairman of Transition Monitoring Group, but I have completed my time and I’m now at Ibadan, I don’t know anything about the group again,” Mr. Erubami said.
“If you want to confirm the veracity of what has happened you can contact the current chairman in Abuja.”
Ibrahim Zikirullahi, the current Chairman of TMG, was more forceful in his response, accusing the NEDG of lacking integrity and being involved in ‘shady deals.’”
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“While I cannot authoritatively say whether Dokpesi is the only sole signatory, I will also say that the claims (of the Value and Integrity Group) are not far from the fact,” Mr. Zikirullahi said.
“I became chairman of Transition Monitoring Group in July 2012, till date, nobody informed me that TMG is a member of the Nigeria Election Debate Group, neither my predecessor nor those that are holding fort at the Nigeria Election Debate Group.

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“Between 2012 and now, there was no meeting that was called upon which to deliberate on any issue regarding Nigeria Election Debate Group until now when I saw our name being floated in the media that we are one of the organisers of the presidential debate.”
Mr. Zikirullahi accused the NEDG of using TMG’s name to send out proposals to foreign donors seeking support for the presidential debate.
“So as far as I’m concerned, I don’t know anything about the debate. No phone call has been made to me or to any of my officers, no written invitation, and there is no meeting between us in which we agree on the mode and scope of the debate,” he said.
“So for me I cannot allow them to be using our corporate identity. It was on that strength that I wrote to them asking them to stop forthwith using our corporate identity.”
Mr. Zikirullahi said that he had it “in good record” that the NEDG had already collected billions of naira from a political party.
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“Yet, to make it credible they are just sending out proposals to donor agencies, and those donor agencies we have a very good relationship with them. And before they do anything that they see our name they need to verify from us.
“And it was on that stretch we got to know the extent to which they have gone to. If not they should mention the source of their funding,” said Mr. Zikirullahi.
“A lot of shady things they are doing that is not known to the public, and I said under my regime we cannot be part of that hidden agenda. It’s better they come out open let us know the direction they are going, let us know the source of their funding?

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“Who is running the secretariat? How is the board being appointed? From 2011 till now there is no meeting that has been called. So it’s just a one man show, I can agree especially, it is a product of AIT and Dokpesi and so for us you have to count us out at any time we are not part of it.”
Eddie Emessiri, NEDG’s Executive Secretary, dismissed all the claims, accusing Mr. Zikirullahi of dabbling into partisan politics.
“High Chief Raymond Dokpesi has no hand (in NEDG), or let me put it better, High Chief Raymond Dokpesi was even the founder of this whole thing because he started election debate in 1999,” Mr. Emessiri said.
“By the time NEDG was formed, a group of organisations now decided to get this thing over, and he handed the management over to Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria, BON.”
Mr. Emessiri explained that the chairman of BON at any particular time was the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the NEDG.
According to him, the headship of BON is rotated between the three federal government-owned media of Nigeria Television Authority, NTA; Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria, FRCN; and Voice of Nigeria, VON. The current head of NEDG, Sola Omale, is the Director-General of NTA. Before him were Taiwo Alimi of VON and Abubakar Jijiwa of FRCN.
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“The only thing Raymond Dokpesi does, or used to do, or even now is simply we contact him and tell him please we need airtime, we want to do this, and he’ll just give his final approval, ask his Group General Manager, Tony Akiotu, to give us every support that we require,” said Mr. Emessiri.
“And that is why they have given us airtime to carry everything, all their stations anywhere they are we want to advertise anything. And they are the hub of the production.
“Raymond Dokpesi does not even attend our meetings. How then can they say Raymond Dokpesi is the person who directs NEDG.”
Mr. Emessiri denied claims that Mr. Dokpesi was a signatory to NEDG’s bank account.

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“I am the Executive Secretary of the organisation, I manage the bank account and the bank account is Zenith bank. Come to Zenith Bank, Area 7, Abuja, and find out. That is the only account that we have,” he said.
“The First Bank account was the account that they ran many many years ago and we don’t use that anymore. It was at the very beginning when Raymond Dokpesi founded the organisation, even before 2003. We never used that in 2007, we never used that in 2011, not to talk of now.
“We moved over to Zenith Bank when the chairmanship of the organisation went to VON. And VON also has account in Zenith bank, that particular branch.”
Mr. Emessiri insisted that the NEDG had been having meetings, adding that TMG was part of the group but he doesn’t know “what got into the head” of Mr. Zikirullahi, its current chairman.
“He didn’t look through the books he had to know that the former chairmen of TMG were full time members of NEDG and present in every of our meetings. This man has taken over, because he has a bent on politics he started criticising.”
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PREMIUM TIMES also contacted Mr. Dokpesi, who vehemently denied all the claims, particularly the allegation that he collected billions from a political party on behalf of NEDG.
“Which politician ever gave me money? Which politician ever gave me money?” he asked.
When told that some newspapers had already run the story on how he was using the NEDG as a private estate, Mr. Dokpesi said he had not seen the publication yet.

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“I’m in Edo North at this point in time. Election is next week, I’m busy in my senatorial district so I do not know what you are talking about,” Mr. Dokpesi said. “But you say there is a publication, they can publish anything they want. Before they invited you to a press conference I’m sure they already had what their considerations are.
“NEDG is a group that started the debate in 1999. DAAR Communications and I have always wanted a debate in Nigeria since 1999. Almost single-handedly, it is part of our budget.
“In 1999 when we held the debate in Lagos all the media people (that) are existing how did they contribute? When we held in 2003 was it not the same DAAR Communications that funded it? When they held in 2007 was it not DAAR Communications that supported It? When they did in 2007, did they not see It?
Asked if he carried other board members along in NEDG’s activities, Mr. Dokpesi responded, “What do you mean whether I carry? Who do I have to carry? Mr. Gentleman, understand that there is a chairman, NEDG, in the person of Aremu Taiwo Alimi. There is a chairman Board of Trustees of the NEDG, that was Jijiwa but it’s now DG of NTA. They have their Board of Trustees, what is my role in It?
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“I have no problem. I know that…. Who are these Integrity Group? Who are they made up?
Mr. Dokpesi also denied the claims that he single-handedly ran the account of the NEDG.
“So why don’t you find out, they have an Executive Secretary of NEDG, whether I know anything about the account?
“I have no apologies. I can understand. I’ve told you I’m in Edo north at this present time.
“Whatever is the issue it is good, if the fear of Raymond Dokpesi is the beginning of wisdom now, may God Almighty help Nigeria.”

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Meanwhile, the All Progressives Congress Presidential Campaign Organisation (APCPCO) says it had been vindicated on its stance of not participating in the presidential campaign debates, owing to the outbreak of rumpus among the organizers, the Nigeria Election Debate Group (NEDG) has been compromised.
A press statement signed by the Director of Media and Publicity of the APC campaign, Mallam Garba Shehu on Sunday, noted that sordid details coming out of organizers of the debate would have tainted the APC candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, had he presented himself to the group.
A civil society group with knowledge of the working of the NEDG, Value and Integrity Group alleged at a press conference on Friday, that a First Bank account opened for the NEDG had the Founder of AIT and Raypower, Chief Raymond Dokpesi as sole signatory, even though he is not listed as one of the directors of the NEDG.
The group also alleged that the leading private television’s network address was used for the documentation of the First Bank account instead of the NEDG’s office address.
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According to leaders of the Value and Integrity Group, Sina Odugbemi and Popoola Ajayi, co-ordinator and secretary respectively, “an initial deposit of N1 million was paid into the said First Bank account, and on March 28, 2011, another N20 million belonging to the NEDG was paid into the personal account of the said Founder of the leading private television network.”
“We at the APC Presidential Campaign got the eye-opening news of the press conference by the Value and Integrity Group accusing the Nigeria Election Debate Group, the crux of the allegation being that some members of the NEDG have been monetarily influenced.
“Although the group failed to mention from what source the monies came from, we had taken a position, based on intelligence made available to us that the PDP has compromised the integrity of an unnamed few in the NEDG with huge and ridiculous sums of money.
“And watching President Goodluck Jonathan reading from a prepared script gleefully as he answered questions in the debate confirmed our suspicion that there will be “EXPO”. Without a fore-knowledge of the question to be asked, how did the president come with prepared answers?
“These two scenarios: The allegation of corrupt inducements in the NEDG and the president reading from a prepared script during the debate validates our reasons for abstaining from the debate.”