Tuesday, 24 March 2015

Obasanjo warns against military take-over

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has warned against a military government in Nigeria, saying such move will undermine the integrity of the country in the comity of nations.
Mr. Obasanjo gave the warning when the wife of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Aisha Buhari, led South West Women of the party to his home in Abeokuta, Ogun State.
The former leader said he was happy Nigeria has gone beyond the rumour of Interim National Government.
‪”I do hope we will get things more right. A lot of rumours are flying around, I think we have gone away from the rumour of Interim Government because that is not in our constitution,” Mr. Obasanjo said. “I hope we will soon go away from the rumour of handing over to the military because the military is not meant to run affairs of a nation in terms of running government.”
Ahead of Saturday’s presidential election, there have been speculations about a possible military intervention, and the formation of an Interim National Government in Nigeria.
Denials by President Goodluck Jonathan that his government is not planning to surrender power to an interim body, should the opposition win, have not totally doused those fears.
Prominent lawyer, Femi Falana, said on Sunday that there were still no indications the elections will go forward. He warned against a coup d’etat.
Mr. Obasanjo said the international community especially the African Union will not accommodate or recognise any government that emerges outside Nigeria’s constitution.
“The intentional community will not condone it, particularly African Union. We have said and it is part and parcel of the constituting act of the African Union. Any government that is not brought about on the basis of the constitution will not be accepted, will not be tolerated and will not be a member of the AU until that government is dismantled,” he said.
‪Mr. Obasanjo said Nigeria has all it takes to dictate the pace for other countries in Africa, adding that Nigerians should blame themselves for where it is today.
‪”We are the largest country in Africa, we should be a model, setting examples, we shouldn’t be drawing Africa backward. I hope we will not. I hope at the end of this exercise, we would be where we should be, leading Africa and showing examples for the rest of Africa and indeed the rest of the world.
‪”We have the goodwill of many people. I watched, last night, President Obama talking about our constitution, I watched our brother from Ghana, the current Chairman of ECOWAS talk about our constitution, they are all interested, they all wish us well, should we wish ourselves anything less?”
‪ Mr. Obasanjo said political parties should focus more on what unites the country and avoid hate campaigns. ‪He said anyone who is interested in the future of Nigeria should focus on issues of insecurity, economy, employment.
‪‪”How are we going to get them, what are we going to do, not trivial issues of certificate, no certificate, not trivial issues of when somebody are talking about someone is a Nigerian and not a Nigerian.
Mrs. Buhari, who had earlier embarked on a rally in company of all wives of APC Governors in the country at Moshood Abiola Stadium in the town, thanked Mr. Obasanjo for being what she described as a true nationalist, saying that he acted beyond party level while solving issues affecting the country.
‪”Baba exercises his prowess as a father, as a former head of state of Nigeria twice. Very few Nigerians have the opportunity to rule the country twice, we are here today to show our appreciation the way you handle things as a statesman and also a nationalist.
‪”We thank you so much for acting beyond party in getting things right, thank you for that, may you live long to continue solving out problems,” she said.

Breaking: Professor Jega Summoned By Presidency, Asked To Jettison Card Reader.



by Skytrend News




Professor Jega has been summoned to the Presidential Villa following confirmation that the card hammers procured won't work

SKYTREND NEWS gathered that he has been asked to jettison the use of the electronic card readers or resign as INEC Chairman.

A renown twitter blogger @Ayourb, who confirmed the information in a series of  tweets, "We have it on good authority that he will be INSTRUCTED to jettison the card reader or else resign." See tweets below:


 The Godfather @Ayourb  ·  1h 1 hour ago
1.Breaking News: Professor Jega has been summoned to the Presidential Villa following confirmation that the card hammers procured won't work
57 retweets 1 favorite
Reply  Retweet57  Favorite1

The Godfather @Ayourb  ·  1h 1 hour ago
2. We have it on good authority that he will be INSTRUCTED to jettison the card reader or else resign. THIS is NOT a JOKE..
49 retweets 1 favorite
Reply  Retweet49  Favorite1

Also an online portal, The Complex reports as follows:


"We have been reliably informed that the presidency invited the INEC chairman to the villa following confirmation that the card reader jammers procured by the PDP and the federal government won’t work.

"We gathered that Professor Jega will be instructed to discontinue with his plans to use the card readers for the forthcoming elections and if he fails to abide by the wish of the presidency, he will be asked to resign."

We Bring You Details Shortly!

Update From Premium Times;

A crucial meeting with likely implications for the forthcoming general elections, scheduled to hold on March 28 and April 11, is currently underway at the presidential villa, Abuja.

President Goodluck Jonathan, the Chairman of Independent National Electoral Commission, Attahiru Jega, and chiefs of all security and intelligence services are attending the meeting, which started around 11am.

An INEC source said there will be a “definite pronouncement” about the elections after the meeting.

The meeting holds amid anxiety that the Peoples Democratic Party-controlled federal government may have concluded plans to sack Mr. Jega ahead of the elections. Different groups supporting Mr. Jonathan’s re-election bid have passed vote of no confidence on the INEC boss and called for his removal.

The latest of such anti-Jega protests was on Monday, by members of the Odua Peoples Congress in Lagos.
Mr. Jega is expected to brief the meeting on the preparations for the elections.

Also, security and intelligence services chiefs are billed to give update on the success recorded in the ongoing war against Boko Haram terrorism as well as preparations for the elections.

The general elections, earlier scheduled to start February 14, were pushed back by six weeks, over security concerns, after the security chiefs warned that they could not guarantee security during the elections.

The meeting has in attendance Vice President Namadi Sambo; Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Pius Anyim; Chief of Staff to the President, Jones Arogbofa; National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki; Chief of Defence Staff, Alex Badeh; Chief of Army Staff, Kenneth Minimah; Chief of Naval Staff, Usman Jibrin; Chief of Air Staff, Adesola Amosu; Inspector-General of Police, Suleiman Abba.

Others in attendance are the Attorney-General of the Federation, Muhammed Adoke; Minister of Police Affairs, Jelili Adesiyan; Minister of Interior, Aba Moro; and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Aminu Wali, as well as the heads of the Department of State Security and the National Intelligence Agency.

Buhari Defeats Jonathan In 10 Polls Conducted So Far.



Kess Ewubare,
 

 According to various opinion polls conducted online so far, Gen Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is leading President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with a wide margin.


According to Naij.com’s online poll which is currently running, Gen Mohammadu Buhari currently leads with with a total of 33,848 votes and 69.3 percent, while President Jonathan trails with 14,224  votes and 31 percent.
All other parties’ presidential candidates shared the remaining 905 votes in the poll.
Another recent poll conducted by popular blogger, Omojuwa, showed that Buhari is likely to defeat Jonathan in this week’s poll as the former general polled 88 percent as against 12 percent polled by Jonathan.
READ ALSO: Which States Have Changed Their GEJ-GMB Preferences
Also, a poll conducted by renowned Center for Public Policy Alternatives, showed that Buhari will win the poll as he polled 58 percent as against 32 percent polled by Jonathan.
 


A poll by an online news portal, Nigeria Eye also tilted this week’s election in favour of Buhari. Out of the total 7,043 respondents to the poll, Buhari got 72 percent to defeat Jonathan, who scored 25 percent while the remaining three percent was shared by other parties’ presidential candidates.
However, in the poll conducted by Kevin, Charlyn and Kimberly Associates, a United Kingdom (UK)-based research and political risk consultancy firm, Jonathan is predicted to win the poll with a probable margin of 13 per cent.
But Buhari leads Jonathan by a wide margin in the opinion poll conducted by renowned online newspaper, Premium Times. Out of the total 9,206 respondents to the poll, 8,176 Nigerians said they will vote for Buhari.
The online newspaper simply asks: Who do you think will win the Nigeria 2015 presidential election? Thousands of people voted for Buhari who polled 88.81 percent in the poll, while Jonathan, who got a paltry 877 votes, about 9.53 percent came a distant second.
Another online newspaper, the Daily Post’s opinion poll gave it to Buhari also. Out of  a total of 9,204 votes in the poll, Buhari emerged winner by polling 6,129 votes (66.59 percent) and Jonathan, with 2,516 votes (27.34 percent) came second, while other parties shared the remaining 6.07 percent votes.
Buhari  also emerged winner in the poll conducted by the globally-renowned political risk research and consulting firm, Eurasia Group.
READ ALSO: Falana Raises Alarm, Says Elections May Not Hold
Back in February, the Africa Independent Television (AIT) conducted a poll to gauge the popularity of Jonathan after the station had run a damaging documentary on Buhari. After two days of the poll, Buhari was leading Jonathan by 7,158 (76.23 percent) as against 1,953 (20.8 percent) polled by Jonathan before the station shut down its website, alleging massive rigging of its own opinion

NIGERIA Elections Special Report III


 President Goodluck Jonathan regains lost momentum, but opposition still poised for landslide upset win in cliffhanger historic poll





Goodluck Jonathan regains lost momentum, but General Buhari still poised for upset



Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, largest economy and geopolitically most important state, is set to hold its first truly competitive free and fair democratic national elections this Saturday, 28 March. Despite jettisoning the outward trappings of autocratic military rule 15 years ago, the country’s politics largely retained the substantive autocratic diktats of quasi-military rule under the dominant People Democratic Party (PDP). In 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 Nigeria held mostly rigged, pre-ordained, non-free, non-fair and non-competitive elections. However due to major electoral reforms, launched by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua, particularly promoting the exclusive use of secure biometric voter ID cards, and unique security verification, the country is poised to hold its first truly open, transparent, free and fair polls on March 28.

Regardless of who wins the March polls, Nigeria’s politics is poised for a dramatic change if the electoral commission is able to stand firmly behind its decision to insist that only those voters who are biometrically registered and verified can vote. That simple bold act by the electoral commission, will powerfully finally transfer political power in Nigeria from the brazen ‘Tammany Hall’ corrupt political and corporatist elites, who spend all their time in Abuja, the country’s capital, sucking the state dry, -- to the ordinary citizens in the 36 federal states to create ‘a government by the people, for the people and of the people.’ The fundamentally altered dynamic of the citizens of Africa’s most populous and largest economy, being empowered to truly have the right, choice and chance, to regularly freely change their leaders when they do not deliver socio-economic goods and security will help to powerfully transform Nigeria into ‘the China of Africa,’ an economic behemoth, that much like China’s role in Asia, help to catalyze a complete economic transformation of the African continent.

The six week postponement of Nigeria’s originally scheduled February 14 presidential elections allowed embattled President Goodluck Jonathan to take several pragmatic steps to claw back lost electoral momentum. However Jonathan’s valiant efforts notwithstanding, after several simulations, DaMina Advisors’s proprietary VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral Forecast Statistical Model, (reproduced below) continues to still give the odds of an upset victory to opposition leader Retired General Muhammadu Buhari. Despite the bi-variate model’s heavy discount on frontier markets political challengers and favoring incumbency, Buhari still emerges on top.



Jonathan in late February bypassed the dispirited Nigerian army and authorized regional forces from neighbors Chad, Cameroon and Niger and foreign mercenaries to enter Nigerian territory and dismantle known Boko Haram camps. Additionally, Jonathan sensing that the ethnic Yoruba, will be the ‘swing voters’ in the forthcoming election has spent the past few weeks wooing ethnic Yoruba chieftains and business elites. Finally, Jonathan’s campaign has sought to convince many disgruntled wealthy political and business elites that Buhari election will trigger a ‘Putin-style’ anti-oligarch campaign aimed at sending many of them to jail to retrieving questionable funds and corrupt investments. Despite all these efforts the larger centrifugal forces of the forthcoming election are still running against the government and favoring ‘change.’

EUROPE AFRICA AMERICAS (HQ) ASIA


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DaMina Advisors Nigeria Elections VERITAS Model State 2006 Pop Census 2015 INEC Registered Voters PVC (Permanent Voter Cards Collected by Voters) % of Pop with PVCs 2003 Turnout 2011 Turnout DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 Turnout DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 PDP Vote Share DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 APC Vote Share DaMina Advisors Analytic Comment
Abia 2,845,380 1,396,162 1,183,127 42% 59.80% 77.95% 69% 692,647 122,232 Abia and most of the pan-ethnic Igbo eastern states to firmly re-elect Jonathan
Abuja (FCT) 1,406,239 881,472 569,109 40% 43.70% 42.19% 40% 100,163 127,480 Capital Abuja to tilt towards Buhari
Adamawa 3,178,950 1,559,012 1,381,571 43% 77.60% 49.98% 60% 298,419 530,523 Boko Haram attacks; PDP elite confusion and unpopular Ribadu governorship quest
Akwa Ibom 3,902,051 1,680,759 1,587,566 41% 80.50% 76.22% 83% 1,185,912 131,768 Presidential stalwart Gov Akpabio to ensure PDP victory
Anambra 4,177,828 1,963,173 1,658,967 40% 48.20% 57.52% 55% 775,567 136,865 New Gov Obiano and pan-Igbo APGA party rooting heavily for Jonathan
Bauchi 4,653,066 2,054,125 1,967,081 42% 81.60% 63.80% 77% 151,465 1,363,187 PDP Party Chairman Muaazu's home state, but the anti-Jonathan wave strong
Bayelsa 1,704,515 610,373 548,585 32% 97.00% 85.61% 95% 469,040 52,116 Jonathan to win home state massively, but Buhari to make small in-roads
Benue 4,253,641 2,015,452 1,607,800 38% 71.10% 43.82% 55% 495,202 389,088 Senate President Mark stays in PDP and rallies state for Jonathan
Borno 4,171,104 1,934,079 1,407,777 34% 62.00% 49.46% 45% 82,355 551,145 Heart of Boko Haram insurgency; PDP will get very few votes
Cross Rivers 2,892,988 1,175,623 983,968 34% 96.00% 63.24% 85% 736,008 100,365 Cross Rivers and other pan-ethnic Igbo eastern states are firmly behind Jonathan
Delta 4,112,445 2,275,264 1,939,952 47% 72.90% 68.82% 75% 1,309,468 145,496 PDP Gov Uduaghan to assure Jonathan victory with large margin
Ebonyi 2,176,947 1,074,273 848,392 39% 80.50% 47.87% 66% 481,547 78,391 Ebonyi firmly behind Jonathan; but PDP Gov Elechi unpopularity to give APC room
Edo 3,233,366 1,779,738 1,224,608 38% 78.00% 37.52% 55% 383,915 289,620 Popular Gov Oshiomole will pull large parts of state to APC, but PDP still strong
Ekiti 2,398,957 732,021 522,107 22% 43.20% 34.24% 40% 98,156 110,687 Ekiti despite recent PDP governorship gain will tilt towards APC
Enugu 3,267,837 1,429,221 1,223,606 37% 77.40% 62.46% 70% 735,874 119,793 Enugu, a major ethnic Igbo state is firmly behind Jonathan
Gombe 2,365,040 1,120,023 1,070,198 45% 80.00% 58.41% 73% 218,748 562,496 Buhari to carry Gombe as he did in 2011; Boko Haram sinks Jonathan further here
Imo 3,927,563 1,803,030 1,707,449 43% 64.60% 83.56% 78% 599,315 732,496 Opposition Gov Rochas Okorochas cottails to help Buhari
Jigawa 4,361,002 1,831,276 1,757,658 40% 70.10% 56.64% 65% 434,142 708,336 Gov Lamido is in PDP, but heart is with Buhari/Obasanjo; APC wins
Kaduna 6,113,503 3,407,222 3,174,519 52% 83.60% 65.81% 75% 904,738 1,476,151 Opposition to topple PDP in Kaduna with pro-Buhari Muslim wave

NIGERIA Elections Special Report III.

President Goodluck Jonathan regains lost momentum, but opposition still poised for landslide upset win in cliffhanger historic poll   (FULL REPORT and 36 state-by-state statistical model attached)


Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, largest economy and geopolitically most important state, is set to hold its first truly competitive free and fair democratic national elections this Saturday, 28 March. Despite jettisoning the outward trappings of autocratic military rule 15 years ago, the country’s politics largely retained the substantive autocratic diktats of quasi-military rule under the dominant People Democratic Party (PDP). In 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 Nigeria held mostly rigged, pre-ordained, non-free, non-fair and non-competitive elections. However due to major electoral reforms, launched by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua, particularly promoting the exclusive use of secure biometric voter ID cards, and unique security verification, the country is poised to hold its first truly open, transparent, free and fair polls on March 28.
The six week postponement of Nigeria’s originally scheduled February 14 presidential elections allowed embattled President Goodluck Jonathan to take several pragmatic steps to claw back lost electoral momentum. However Jonathan’s valiant efforts notwithstanding, after several simulations, DaMina Advisors’s proprietary VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral Forecast Statistical Model, (reproduced below) continues to still give the odds of an upset victory to opposition leader Retired General Muhammadu Buhari. Despite the bi-variate model’s heavy discount on frontier markets political challengers and favoring incumbency, Buhari still emerges on top.