Wednesday 25 March 2015

A President Without Balls, By Femi Fani-Kayode

Femi Fani-Kayode
Femi Fani-Kayode
Permit me to begin this contribution by quoting a portion of an essay that I wrote on September 26, 2011, which was titled ”On Goodluck Jonathan, David and Goliath”. The portion reads as follows.
”A few days ago from the sacred pulpit of the hallowed chambers of the National Christian Centre in Abuja and in the presence of the entire leadership of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan proclaimed as follows- ”I am not David….I am not a general…..I am not a lion…..I will defeat the Goliaths in our land”. These are deep and instructive words yet I do wonder whether Mr. President understands the spiritual and practical implications of what he is saying.
“If he says that he ”is not a David” how can he then possibly slay the ”Goliaths in the land?” If he says that he ”is not a general” how can he be an effective Commander-in-Chief who commands the respect and confidence of his army and his officers? If he says that he ”is not a lion” how can he overwhelm the animals in our jungle that seek to destroy and ravage our land? The lion is a noble and courageous animal that defends it’s pride and family and protects it’s own. That is why it is known as the ”king of the jungle” and that is why our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ Himself is known as the ”Lion of the Tribe of Judah”.
“Every king worth his salt must have the spirit of the lion and the warrior in him to a certain extent. It is a fundamental pre-qualification for good quality and inspirational leadership and that is what distinguishes the pretender and the usurper from a real king. May the spirit and weakness of Ahab not be our President’s portion even though his words seem to have ensnared him. History proves that weak kings and weak leaders always pull down and destroy great empires and strong kingdoms.
“If you have any doubt about that consider what happened to the Roman Empire under Nero, Claudius or Caligula. If you still have any doubts after that then read up on Russian history or watch an excellent old film called ”Nicholas and Alexander” about Tsar Nicholas the 1st, the last Tsar of Russia and how his strong-willed wife and his consistent display of weakness shamed and brought down imperial Russia, destroyed the 300 year old royal dynasty of the Romanovs, led directly to the First World War (which in turn led to the Second World War and then later the Cold War), caused the communist revolution, led to the Russian civil war, resulted in the murder of his whole family and ended in the establishment and creation of the most evil and godless empire that has ever ruled half of the world- the cold and all-powerful Soviet empire.
“That is what weakness, prevarication, inconsistency, cowardice, emotional slavery, inexplicable fear and the celebration of indecision can do. Worst still you don’t boast about such qualities because there is nothing to be proud of in them. Always remember, whether you are a king or a subject, that courage is the greatest of all the virtues. This is wisdom. Would someone please tell our President”.
Once again please take note that the contribution that I quoted above was part of an essay that I wrote on 26th September 2011, almost two years ago to the day.
With the killing of 91 children by Boko Haram in Damaturu a few days ago, the slaughter of 40 Nigerian troops by Boko Haram in Borno state recently, the massacre of 41 school children in Borno state by Boko Haram two months ago, the mass murder of no less than 7000 Nigerians by Boko Haram in the last 3 years and the raging war that is going on in the northern eastern part of our country between Boko Haram and our military today, those words and that counsel that was offered two years ago seem even more relevant today than it was even at that time.
The carnage that we are witnessing in our country today has come as a direct result of the manifestation of weakness at the top. When a President tells the world that Boko Haram are his ”siblings” whom he ”cannot move against”, as he did earlier this year, he is asking for trouble. When a President keeps offering Boko Haram amnesty even when they kept rejecting it and whilst they were murdering his people, as he has been doing for the last three years, he is asking for trouble. When a President installs and supports a party National Chairman who describes Boko Haram as ”freedom fighters”, as he did earlier this year, he is asking for trouble.
When a President announces to the world that he is ”not a lion or a David”, as he did exactly two years ago, no one should be surprised when his people are killed like flies before his very eyes. May God bring us a real leader that can save our nation and may He take away this one who feels no pain and has no empathy when Nigerian blood, nay even the blood of innocent children, is shed with impunity. Under the tenure of our ”lamb” President, more innocent Nigerians have been slaughtered by terrorists than at any other time in the history of our country except during the civil war.
What a mess! What a record! I continue to ponder about one thing though- would the President have been so unperturbed and detached from the whole thing if the children that were killed in their school yesterday morning had been from his Niger Delta area or from the east. It appears to me that simply because those kids were northerners, this President just ”doesn’t give a damn”. What a tragedy! Whether Christian or Muslim, northern or southern, these are only children and they are NIGERIAN children each of whom is entitled to the full protection of the Nigerian state. I have said it before and I shall say it again, Nigeria has become an abattoir of human flesh and blood under the tenure of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and all those who support him should bury their heads in shame. The blood of all those innocent people is on his hands because he swore to an oath before God and the Nigerian people to protect them from such evil. Instead of getting on with his job and doing so he has spent the last few days boasting to the world about ringing the bell in the New York Stock Exchange and receiving irrelevant, illusionary, self-serving and absurd commendations for absolutely nothing from President Barack Obama. May God deliver us!
Permit me to make a painful observation here. I was thoroughly appalled about the fact that when our lamb President was asked about the latest round of killings during his live ”Presidential Media Chat” programme on Sunday evening, he not only told a lie to the world by claiming that only ”21 or 22 students were killed” at a time when the BBC and CNN had confirmed that at least 45 bodies had been found (more were to be discovered later) but he also failed to express his condolences to the families of those that had lost their loved ones. He made the same omission when he failed to commiserate with or express his condolences to the families of the soldiers that were killed in Borno state whilst fighting Boko Haram simply because they ran out of bullets during the course of the battle.
By way of contrast not only was he quick to offer his condolences to the government and people of Kenya for the terrible carnage that was inflicted on them by Al Shabab last Friday when 68 people were killed (I guess that to him Nigerian blood is not as expensive or as important as foreign blood) but he was also quick to offer the Kenyan government military assistance. If President Uhuru Kenyatta decides to accept his offer let us hope that our lamb President will give enough bullets to the soldiers that he will send. Our boys are deeply courageous fighters and they certainly deserve that much. They also deserve to have a Commander in Chief that inspires them, that watches their back and that gives them the very best. May the souls of all those that have been killed by Boko Haram in the last three years rest in peace and may the Lord take the leadership of this nation from the lamb and give it to a lion king.
Permit me to end this contribution with the following observations. As crude and unpleasant as it may sound the question must be asked – does our President have any balls? Is he really a man? Does he have what it takes to fight a war against terror or is it that there is more to this than meets the eye? Is there a sinister and diabolical conspiracy and plan to ensure that elections do not hold in the northeast and the northwest in 2015 given the fact that those areas are very hostile to the suggestion that Jonathan should return to power that year? Is this whole thing planned and contrived or is it a case of chronic incompetence, ineptitude and weakness? Does Jonathan believe that it is in his interest for the north to burn and for northern blood to be spilt? Is the mindset of those that are pulling the strings of the view that since the problem has been (to use the President’s own words in his last media chat) ”localised” and ”contained in a certain area” the government can sit back and watch the locals slaughter themselves whilst they continue to drink champagne in the Villa and fantasise about 2015? If that is the case has it not occurred to them that their fellow Nigerians live in those areas where the problem has supposedly been ”localised” and is the blood of those fellow Nigerians not red as well? Are they less Nigerian because of where they were born and who they are? Are the people that live in the villages and countryside not as important as those who live in the towns and cities?
Whatever is really going on here God sees all and anything that is not of Him will surely fail. If it is nothing but weakness and incompetence that has resulted in this unprecedented carnage the President will answer before God for violating his solemn oath to protect the Nigerian people from enemies within and from enemies without and if it is a conspiracy to encourage and create turmoil and chaos in the north just to ensure that they are excluded from the vote in 2015, both Jonathan himself and Nigeria as a whole will reap the consequences. It is worth noting that that is precisely what happened in Mali in the elections that took place before the north was taken over by the Islamists and it led to a full scale civil war. Any attempt to exclude any part of this country from participating in the elections in 2015 under the guise of lack of security or Boko Haram will result in the same thing with catastrophic consequences for Nigeria.
Yet as Napolean Bonaparte once said, ”we must never account to conspiracy what can easily be explained away by incompetence”. It is more likely than not that the situation that is folding in the north-east and the feeble fight that our government is putting up against Boko Haram over there is down to Jonathan’s weakness and nothing more. So when asked the question is our President capable of fighting the war against terror my answer would be that I am afraid that I doubt it very much. He just doesn’t have it in him. As the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Tony Blair once said about John Major, his predecessor in office, he is just ”weak, weak, and weak’’.
I am a great believer in strong government and I am one of those that have always believed that President Olusegun Obasanjo was one of the best, if not the best, and most effective leaders that we have ever had in this country. I say this not because I had the honour and privilege of serving in his government but because, when it comes to his record in public office, the facts and figures speak for themselves. Not only are they outstanding but also they are yet to be matched and since he left office in 2007, everything has gone to the dogs. Love him or hate him one thing is clear- not under Obasanjo’s watch would 7000 innocent Nigerians be massacred at will in the space of just two years by a bunch of murderous and heartless terrorists. He would have known exactly what to do and how to do it to put a stop to such callous lawlessness and anarchy right from the start. Equally significant is the fact that such was his love for Nigeria that regardless of the region, ethnic group or religious faith that the victims came from, espoused or belonged to, his response to the terrorists would have been swift, decisive and utterly ruthless. He would have had Boko Haram in ”shock and awe” and the whole world would have marvelled at it. This is because in Obasanjo we had a President who not only had balls but who also had the courage, heart and guts to match them.
The greatest error that we as a people ever made and the worst tragedy and misfortune that has ever befallen us as a nation is the fact that a meek lamb ended up taking a throne that was designed and prepared for a lion. The unfortunate consequences of that tragic error and misfortune are there for all to see. The shedding of the blood of even the youngest, the most innocent and the most vulnerable in our society by Boko Haram on a daily basis is an eloquent testimony to that unsavoury fact.

Re: Nigeria On The Brink. A Direct Response To Richard Grenell - Adeolu Ashaye.

Now that the world’s eyes are firmly fixed on Nigeria, in the week of the country’s Presidential elections, some who should know better have chosen to fudge the important issues.
In an opinion piece (Nigeria on the brink) for the right wing Washington Times, a pro-Jonathan newspaper, a one-time Mitt Romney aide, Richard Grenell, regurgitated some outdated and unfounded comments about the leading opposition candidate in the Nigerian elections, Muhammadu Buhari.
According to Grenell, Mr. Buhari said. “God willing, we will not stop the agitation for the total implementation of the Sharia in the country.” Agitation? Is this an indication that Mr. Buhari supports violence because the end goal of the terrorist attacks throughout Nigeria and Africa is an Islamic state? It is a legitimate question that should be asked by leaders of the Obama administration.
What a truckload of nonsense!
In public and private interventions on religion and politics in Nigeria since 1998, Buhari has repeatedly shown a commitment to pluralism, tolerance and respect for the constitution and laws of Nigeria.
These are some of Buhari’s words on this issue, quoted verbatim:
In Sokoto, June 2001 – “I explained that Sharia, however, has been with us well before the British colonized Nigeria. Now, Sharia has been introduced in many Northern states and Sokoto is one of the states that has already adopted Sharia. It must be pointed out however that Sharia is applicable only to Muslims … Midway through our democracy, we have time now to assess the situation on ground in terms of making our choice in the next elections. Vote for good men whether they are in Borno, Katsina, Sokoto or wherever. Vote for those who will protect your interest.”
FactChecki Did Buhari Say Muslims Should Only Vote Muslim Leaders?
In Abuja, February 2015 – “The Sharia identified in the constitution is almost synonymous with customary law. It is only applicable in matters of personal status such as marriage, divorce and inheritance. This has been the case since the 1979 constitution. Just as no one can make any customary or any other religious law, the law of Nigeria, so Sharia cannot therefore be the law of Nigeria,” he said.
The former head of state who tried to dispel people’s notion regarding his alleged religious bias, insisted that he had never supported extremism of any kind, adding that nowhere in my record of service to this nation has this false toga taken place.
He said though he has been a devout Muslim, he has never belonged to, nor shared the views of any extremist group.
According to Buhari, the role of government is to protect lives and property of citizens and to respect and protect their constitutional rights.
“One critical freedom that every government must strive to protect is the liberty for citizens to exercise their respective faiths, Christians and Muslims or others, in a lawful manner without fear or hindrance and to prosecute those who use religion as an excuse to destroy homes, schools and places of worship”
THISDAY: No One Can Impose Sharia Law On Nigeria
Not content with his misrepresentation, Grenell went further by delving into the realms of outright falsehoods, all in his warped bid to give Buhari a bad name. Hear him:
“Mr. Buhari has also spoken sympathetically about members of the terrorist group Boko Haram, has cautioned against a rush to judgement on its members and has personally been selected by the terrorist group to lead its negotiations with the Government of Nigeria.”
For the record, Gen. Buhari has never been sympathetic towards Boko Haram or any other terrorist group for that matter. The so called mediation with Boko Haram has turned out to be nothing more than a hoax by elements of the Jonathan government, on at least 3 different occasions in as many years.
During his brief spell as Head of State in the 1980s, Buhari successfully led an offensive to wipe out the last vestiges of the homicidal Islamist terrorist group known as Maitatsine. In February 1984, just two months after he became Head of State, General Buhari led from the front when he flew into Yola, in the Northeast to oversee the successful military operations to flush out the terrorists.
Rather than handle Boko Haram with kids gloves (prior to the recent pushback), like Goodluck Jonathan has done since Yar’Adua dealt with them in 2009, Buhari was lucky to escape with his life following a deadly assassination attack by people suspected to be Boko Haram operatives in July 2014. On the same day and in the same city, Kaduna, a prominent Islamic Cleric, Dahiru Bauchi was also targeted. Both Buhari and Bauchi had spoken against Boko Haram in the weeks before the attack.
Buhari however suspected a government cover-up:
“When I was bombed, what was the reaction of Boko Haram? Did Boko Haram ever put out a statement? It was the government that quickly said that they were not responsible and that was the last we heard about it. Even if it was an unknown Nigerian, I think a proper investigation would have been carried out to find out what happened. How did they get the sophisticated weapon to bomb your headquarters in Abuja and the United Nations building? How did they get to such a sophisticated level of detonating an explosive device just adjacent to my vehicle and see how it pierced the body of the bullet proof vehicle…Nobody ever bothered to brief me on the outcome of any investigation on the incident.”
THISDAY: Buhari In Quest To Secure Nigeria
If Grenell was unaware of these facts before he penned his piece, it speaks to the ignorance that characterised his largely uninformed comment piece.
If as a Republican hired hack and lobbyist, Grenell has an axe to grind with the Obama administration’s foreign policy, he has chosen the wrong example to make his unfounded point.
Mr. Grenell will better serve his audience, by basing any Nigeria relevant analysis on accurate information, rather than the patchwork of out of tune talking points which he appears to have been fed by those who commissioned his hatchet job.
Without mincing words, Gen. Buhari’s strong leadership on security issues remain the best bet for Nigerians and her friends from DC to Douala, from New York to Niamey.
In closing, a few weeks ago in London, Buhari gave a seminal and well received foreign policy speech at Chatham House. I urge Richard Grenell and his friends to get acquainted with these words again:
“Let me assure you that if I am elected president, the world will have no cause to worry about Nigeria as it has had to recently; that Nigeria will return to its stabilising role in West Africa; and that no inch of Nigerian territory will ever be lost to the enemy because we will pay special attention to the welfare of our soldiers in and out of service, we will give them adequate and modern arms and ammunitions to work with, we will improve intelligence gathering and border controls to choke Boko Haram’s financial and equipment channels, we will be tough on terrorism and tough on its root causes by initiating a comprehensive economic development plan promoting infrastructural development, job creation, agriculture and industry in the affected areas. We will always act on time and not allow problems to irresponsibly fester, and I, Muhammadu Buhari, will always lead from the front and return Nigeria to its leadership role in regional and international efforts to combat terrorism.”
CHATHAM HOUSE: Prospects for Democratic Consolidation In Africa… – Buhari
This is the only guarantee for Nigeria and the world to ensure that the most populous country in Africa does not slip away.
Adeolu Ashaye is a Nigerian citizen with more than a passing interest in Nigerian history, politics and international affairs. He resides in Aberdeen, Scotland and tweets as @naijahistory.

Tuesday 24 March 2015

Jonathan’s Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics, By Ibraheem Dooba


“A well-wrapped statistic,” said Darrell Huff, six decades ago, “is better than Hitler’s “big lie”; it misleads, yet it cannot be pinned on you.” So, to save the ordinary citizen from the mischievous use of statistics, Huff deemed it fit to teach regular folks how to do wicked statistics, hence his book, How to Lie with Statistics.
Here’s how Huff defended his project: “This book is a sort of primer in ways to use statistics to deceive. It may seem altogether too much like a manual for swindlers. [But] the crooks already know these tricks; honest men must learn them in self-defence.”
Unlike Huff, I wouldn’t (and can’t) cover all the angles people employ to deceive with statistics. Like him, however, it is a concern seeing how people abuse statistics and deploy them as a weapon to tell lies. So I propose to share three tips of how to spot a bad statistic.
What is the baseline?
Seeing that it hasn’t fulfilled any shining promise, our government distributes and publishes statistics and makes nothing of the baselines. But you can use that to catch them. For example, if I present a report that says HIV kills six million people per year in Lagos, you can ask one question to quickly discover I couldn’t be telling the truth: what is the total number of people who die yearly from all causes (from accidents, cancer, of natural causes, etc.) in Lagos? If the answer is less than six million people per year, you’d know that statistic is a lie. It’s the baseline technique that Obasanjo’s minister of agriculture, Adamu Bello, used to expose the lies of Jonathan’s minister of agriculture, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina.
Before then, the man and his ministry overwhelmed us with statistics, “We ended 40 years of fertiliser corruption in 90 days,” they informed us. Also, ‘the growth that the Jonathan administration has engendered in the agriculture sector is unprecedented’. It happened that this was a complete fabrication.
Sharing data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of Nigeria, Adamu Bello argued that instead of growth, there has been a decline in the sector since Obasanjo left office. Statistics show that between 2003 and 2007, when Obasanjo left office, the growth in the agriculture sector averaged 6.85 percent per annum. The growth started declining immediately after he left office. And in 2013, under Jonathan, growth in the sector was 4.5 percent; the government failed its own target of 8.0 percent growth.
Also, the ministry of agriculture was simply being mischievous when it said that it eliminated N26 billion annual corruption in fertiliser distribution. Using the same baseline technique, we can ask what the total budget for fertiliser per year was in those years. That was what Adamu Bello did. The answer may surprise you: N3 billion!
How can you steal 26 from 3? Bello said the total subsidy between 1999 and 2007 was under N25billion. “This can be verified from the Budget Office of the Federal Ministry of Finance,” he said.
Another baseline question, if N870 billion fertiliser subsidy was embezzled in 40 years, what was the total budget for agriculture for those years?
Adamu Bello doubted if the entire budget for the ministry of agriculture was up to that amount. “To claim that there was subsidy of N870 billion spent on fertilisers, since the use of fertilisers was initially encouraged by the government about 40 years ago, is most unfair, as I doubt if the entire agricultural budgets for the whole period was up to that sum,” he said.
Dr. Adesina knew he could no longer win with statistics, so he changed tactics. He challenged Adamu Bello to tell the citizens his achievements in seven years as minister of agriculture.
“Bello never told Nigerians the truth about his actual performance in office. Let him give details commodity-by-commodity, and let him state where and how this impact was felt,” Adesina said through his assistant on media, Oyeleye Olukayode.
Under a better president, Adesina could be a good agriculture minister. However, what we get from the ministry now is too much noise and a good deal of initiatives and acronyms: phone for farmers, e-wallet, Growth Enhancement Scheme (GES), Youth Employment in Agriculture Programme (YEAP), Fund for Agricultural Finance in Nigeria (FAFIN), NIRSAL, and so forth. As a result, we’re confused and overwhelmed.
What is the method?
Imagine Daily Trust has four columnists – Mohammed Haruna, Adamu Adamu, Mahmud Jega and Ibraheem Dooba. Respectively, they make N3 million, N2 million, N1 million and N5 million per month. What is their average monthly pay? If we add all the money together and divide by 4, we get N2.75 million. From here we can draw a conclusion that a Daily Trust columnist belongs to the middle class.
What if, however, Dangote starts writing for Daily Trust? Now, the paper has five columnists, but Dangote also brings his income of, say, N100 million per month. If we add all the five monthly pays together and divide by the five writers, we get N22.2 million per month. Now, we can say a Daily Trust columnist is a rich man. Is this conclusion valid? Yes. But the method that led to the conclusion is flawed. When we have numbers that are too high or low (outliers) in a data set, statisticians advise us to take the median not the mean.
Now, if we do the calculation again using the median, we’ll get an entirely different result. To do that, we arrange the numbers in ascending order: N1m, N2m, N3m, N5m and N100m. Now we take the middle number, which is N3 million. Which is quite close to what we figured earlier before Dangote crashed the party – and a far cry from N22m per month.
So when a politician gives you an average that sounds suspicious, you can ask which average he chose.
The Bureau of Statistics demonstrated recently the importance of appropriate method selection in statistical analysis. Sokoto State was the poorest state in Nigeria, it said. Niger State was the least poor.
In response, the governor of Sokoto State, Magartarda Wamako, stepped forward, breathing fire: “An agency that failed to conduct a proper survey on what we have been doing as government to mop up the rate of unemployment in the state should not attempt to misinform Nigerians and the rest of the world that Sokoto is the poorest state in Nigeria with 81.2 per cent rate. Such a rating is unthinkable, utterly incorrect and misinforming,” the Punch newspaper reported him as saying on January 14.
It took NBS almost three weeks to deny the reports that it rated Sokoto State as the poorest state in Nigeria. On January 25, ThisDay published a statement from Dr. Yemi Kale, the statistician general, addressed to the chambers of Dr. Alex Iziyon (SAN), the lawyer to the Sokoto State Government.
I was confused further when last month, at a retreat organised by the gubernatorial campaign council of Niger State APC, officials from the Governors’ Forum told us during a presentation that Niger is one of the poorest states in the country. The conclusions of the bureau and that of the Governors’ Forum, while measuring the same thing, are at the opposite ends of the spectrum.
When I asked the question, the Governors’ Forum said they are using a method completely different from the one the statistics bureau used. Instead of measuring income alone, they also measured other indicators of well-being such as health, education status, etc.
So if it sounds fishy, ask for the method.
Is it a lie?
When some conclusions are drawn from statistics, you immediately know that they are lies. A recent example of this is the recalculation of our GDP. President Jonathan and his mutual admiration society usually imply that the president grew our GDP to 500 billion dollars. No. He did not.
Recalculating is different from creating. Take for example, if the value of the products in my village’s weekly market had not been calculated for many years (even after its expansion) until now, and it’s found that the current value is far higher than what was calculated several years before, are we going to credit the incumbent chairman for this achievement even though there were many chairmen who contributed to the growth of the market before him?
Credit the incumbent, Jonathanians say: “Buhari’s shameful past is dwarfed by the achievements of Goodluck Jonathan. Under Jonathan, Nigeria has emerged as by far the largest economy in Africa with a GDP of $503 billion; nearly double the previous estimates,” Femi Aribisala wrote.
When Jideofor Adibe, a Daily Trust columnist, implied the same thing, I immediately threw away 70 percent of the respect I had for him; and I’m now sussing him out on the remaining 30 percent.
Actually, the Economist argued that the Nigerian economy is growing not because of Jonathan but in spite of him: “The single bright spot of his rule has been Nigeria’s economy, one of the world’s fastest-growing. Yet that is largely despite the government rather than because of it, and falling oil prices will temper the boom. The prosperity has not been broadly shared: under Mr Jonathan poverty has increased. Nigerians typically die eight years younger than their poorer neighbours in nearby Ghana.”
So next time you feel you’re being conned with numbers, ask yourself the three foregoing questions.
Let’s end the way we started, with a wise counsel from Darrell Huff: “But without writers who use the words with honesty and understanding and readers who know what they mean, the result can only be semantic nonsense.”
Ibraheem Dooba, Ph.D, is a data scientist.

Obasanjo warns against military take-over

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has warned against a military government in Nigeria, saying such move will undermine the integrity of the country in the comity of nations.
Mr. Obasanjo gave the warning when the wife of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Aisha Buhari, led South West Women of the party to his home in Abeokuta, Ogun State.
The former leader said he was happy Nigeria has gone beyond the rumour of Interim National Government.
‪”I do hope we will get things more right. A lot of rumours are flying around, I think we have gone away from the rumour of Interim Government because that is not in our constitution,” Mr. Obasanjo said. “I hope we will soon go away from the rumour of handing over to the military because the military is not meant to run affairs of a nation in terms of running government.”
Ahead of Saturday’s presidential election, there have been speculations about a possible military intervention, and the formation of an Interim National Government in Nigeria.
Denials by President Goodluck Jonathan that his government is not planning to surrender power to an interim body, should the opposition win, have not totally doused those fears.
Prominent lawyer, Femi Falana, said on Sunday that there were still no indications the elections will go forward. He warned against a coup d’etat.
Mr. Obasanjo said the international community especially the African Union will not accommodate or recognise any government that emerges outside Nigeria’s constitution.
“The intentional community will not condone it, particularly African Union. We have said and it is part and parcel of the constituting act of the African Union. Any government that is not brought about on the basis of the constitution will not be accepted, will not be tolerated and will not be a member of the AU until that government is dismantled,” he said.
‪Mr. Obasanjo said Nigeria has all it takes to dictate the pace for other countries in Africa, adding that Nigerians should blame themselves for where it is today.
‪”We are the largest country in Africa, we should be a model, setting examples, we shouldn’t be drawing Africa backward. I hope we will not. I hope at the end of this exercise, we would be where we should be, leading Africa and showing examples for the rest of Africa and indeed the rest of the world.
‪”We have the goodwill of many people. I watched, last night, President Obama talking about our constitution, I watched our brother from Ghana, the current Chairman of ECOWAS talk about our constitution, they are all interested, they all wish us well, should we wish ourselves anything less?”
‪ Mr. Obasanjo said political parties should focus more on what unites the country and avoid hate campaigns. ‪He said anyone who is interested in the future of Nigeria should focus on issues of insecurity, economy, employment.
‪‪”How are we going to get them, what are we going to do, not trivial issues of certificate, no certificate, not trivial issues of when somebody are talking about someone is a Nigerian and not a Nigerian.
Mrs. Buhari, who had earlier embarked on a rally in company of all wives of APC Governors in the country at Moshood Abiola Stadium in the town, thanked Mr. Obasanjo for being what she described as a true nationalist, saying that he acted beyond party level while solving issues affecting the country.
‪”Baba exercises his prowess as a father, as a former head of state of Nigeria twice. Very few Nigerians have the opportunity to rule the country twice, we are here today to show our appreciation the way you handle things as a statesman and also a nationalist.
‪”We thank you so much for acting beyond party in getting things right, thank you for that, may you live long to continue solving out problems,” she said.

Breaking: Professor Jega Summoned By Presidency, Asked To Jettison Card Reader.



by Skytrend News




Professor Jega has been summoned to the Presidential Villa following confirmation that the card hammers procured won't work

SKYTREND NEWS gathered that he has been asked to jettison the use of the electronic card readers or resign as INEC Chairman.

A renown twitter blogger @Ayourb, who confirmed the information in a series of  tweets, "We have it on good authority that he will be INSTRUCTED to jettison the card reader or else resign." See tweets below:


 The Godfather @Ayourb  ·  1h 1 hour ago
1.Breaking News: Professor Jega has been summoned to the Presidential Villa following confirmation that the card hammers procured won't work
57 retweets 1 favorite
Reply  Retweet57  Favorite1

The Godfather @Ayourb  ·  1h 1 hour ago
2. We have it on good authority that he will be INSTRUCTED to jettison the card reader or else resign. THIS is NOT a JOKE..
49 retweets 1 favorite
Reply  Retweet49  Favorite1

Also an online portal, The Complex reports as follows:


"We have been reliably informed that the presidency invited the INEC chairman to the villa following confirmation that the card reader jammers procured by the PDP and the federal government won’t work.

"We gathered that Professor Jega will be instructed to discontinue with his plans to use the card readers for the forthcoming elections and if he fails to abide by the wish of the presidency, he will be asked to resign."

We Bring You Details Shortly!

Update From Premium Times;

A crucial meeting with likely implications for the forthcoming general elections, scheduled to hold on March 28 and April 11, is currently underway at the presidential villa, Abuja.

President Goodluck Jonathan, the Chairman of Independent National Electoral Commission, Attahiru Jega, and chiefs of all security and intelligence services are attending the meeting, which started around 11am.

An INEC source said there will be a “definite pronouncement” about the elections after the meeting.

The meeting holds amid anxiety that the Peoples Democratic Party-controlled federal government may have concluded plans to sack Mr. Jega ahead of the elections. Different groups supporting Mr. Jonathan’s re-election bid have passed vote of no confidence on the INEC boss and called for his removal.

The latest of such anti-Jega protests was on Monday, by members of the Odua Peoples Congress in Lagos.
Mr. Jega is expected to brief the meeting on the preparations for the elections.

Also, security and intelligence services chiefs are billed to give update on the success recorded in the ongoing war against Boko Haram terrorism as well as preparations for the elections.

The general elections, earlier scheduled to start February 14, were pushed back by six weeks, over security concerns, after the security chiefs warned that they could not guarantee security during the elections.

The meeting has in attendance Vice President Namadi Sambo; Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Pius Anyim; Chief of Staff to the President, Jones Arogbofa; National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki; Chief of Defence Staff, Alex Badeh; Chief of Army Staff, Kenneth Minimah; Chief of Naval Staff, Usman Jibrin; Chief of Air Staff, Adesola Amosu; Inspector-General of Police, Suleiman Abba.

Others in attendance are the Attorney-General of the Federation, Muhammed Adoke; Minister of Police Affairs, Jelili Adesiyan; Minister of Interior, Aba Moro; and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Aminu Wali, as well as the heads of the Department of State Security and the National Intelligence Agency.

Buhari Defeats Jonathan In 10 Polls Conducted So Far.



Kess Ewubare,
 

 According to various opinion polls conducted online so far, Gen Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is leading President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with a wide margin.


According to Naij.com’s online poll which is currently running, Gen Mohammadu Buhari currently leads with with a total of 33,848 votes and 69.3 percent, while President Jonathan trails with 14,224  votes and 31 percent.
All other parties’ presidential candidates shared the remaining 905 votes in the poll.
Another recent poll conducted by popular blogger, Omojuwa, showed that Buhari is likely to defeat Jonathan in this week’s poll as the former general polled 88 percent as against 12 percent polled by Jonathan.
READ ALSO: Which States Have Changed Their GEJ-GMB Preferences
Also, a poll conducted by renowned Center for Public Policy Alternatives, showed that Buhari will win the poll as he polled 58 percent as against 32 percent polled by Jonathan.
 


A poll by an online news portal, Nigeria Eye also tilted this week’s election in favour of Buhari. Out of the total 7,043 respondents to the poll, Buhari got 72 percent to defeat Jonathan, who scored 25 percent while the remaining three percent was shared by other parties’ presidential candidates.
However, in the poll conducted by Kevin, Charlyn and Kimberly Associates, a United Kingdom (UK)-based research and political risk consultancy firm, Jonathan is predicted to win the poll with a probable margin of 13 per cent.
But Buhari leads Jonathan by a wide margin in the opinion poll conducted by renowned online newspaper, Premium Times. Out of the total 9,206 respondents to the poll, 8,176 Nigerians said they will vote for Buhari.
The online newspaper simply asks: Who do you think will win the Nigeria 2015 presidential election? Thousands of people voted for Buhari who polled 88.81 percent in the poll, while Jonathan, who got a paltry 877 votes, about 9.53 percent came a distant second.
Another online newspaper, the Daily Post’s opinion poll gave it to Buhari also. Out of  a total of 9,204 votes in the poll, Buhari emerged winner by polling 6,129 votes (66.59 percent) and Jonathan, with 2,516 votes (27.34 percent) came second, while other parties shared the remaining 6.07 percent votes.
Buhari  also emerged winner in the poll conducted by the globally-renowned political risk research and consulting firm, Eurasia Group.
READ ALSO: Falana Raises Alarm, Says Elections May Not Hold
Back in February, the Africa Independent Television (AIT) conducted a poll to gauge the popularity of Jonathan after the station had run a damaging documentary on Buhari. After two days of the poll, Buhari was leading Jonathan by 7,158 (76.23 percent) as against 1,953 (20.8 percent) polled by Jonathan before the station shut down its website, alleging massive rigging of its own opinion

NIGERIA Elections Special Report III


 President Goodluck Jonathan regains lost momentum, but opposition still poised for landslide upset win in cliffhanger historic poll





Goodluck Jonathan regains lost momentum, but General Buhari still poised for upset



Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, largest economy and geopolitically most important state, is set to hold its first truly competitive free and fair democratic national elections this Saturday, 28 March. Despite jettisoning the outward trappings of autocratic military rule 15 years ago, the country’s politics largely retained the substantive autocratic diktats of quasi-military rule under the dominant People Democratic Party (PDP). In 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 Nigeria held mostly rigged, pre-ordained, non-free, non-fair and non-competitive elections. However due to major electoral reforms, launched by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua, particularly promoting the exclusive use of secure biometric voter ID cards, and unique security verification, the country is poised to hold its first truly open, transparent, free and fair polls on March 28.

Regardless of who wins the March polls, Nigeria’s politics is poised for a dramatic change if the electoral commission is able to stand firmly behind its decision to insist that only those voters who are biometrically registered and verified can vote. That simple bold act by the electoral commission, will powerfully finally transfer political power in Nigeria from the brazen ‘Tammany Hall’ corrupt political and corporatist elites, who spend all their time in Abuja, the country’s capital, sucking the state dry, -- to the ordinary citizens in the 36 federal states to create ‘a government by the people, for the people and of the people.’ The fundamentally altered dynamic of the citizens of Africa’s most populous and largest economy, being empowered to truly have the right, choice and chance, to regularly freely change their leaders when they do not deliver socio-economic goods and security will help to powerfully transform Nigeria into ‘the China of Africa,’ an economic behemoth, that much like China’s role in Asia, help to catalyze a complete economic transformation of the African continent.

The six week postponement of Nigeria’s originally scheduled February 14 presidential elections allowed embattled President Goodluck Jonathan to take several pragmatic steps to claw back lost electoral momentum. However Jonathan’s valiant efforts notwithstanding, after several simulations, DaMina Advisors’s proprietary VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral Forecast Statistical Model, (reproduced below) continues to still give the odds of an upset victory to opposition leader Retired General Muhammadu Buhari. Despite the bi-variate model’s heavy discount on frontier markets political challengers and favoring incumbency, Buhari still emerges on top.



Jonathan in late February bypassed the dispirited Nigerian army and authorized regional forces from neighbors Chad, Cameroon and Niger and foreign mercenaries to enter Nigerian territory and dismantle known Boko Haram camps. Additionally, Jonathan sensing that the ethnic Yoruba, will be the ‘swing voters’ in the forthcoming election has spent the past few weeks wooing ethnic Yoruba chieftains and business elites. Finally, Jonathan’s campaign has sought to convince many disgruntled wealthy political and business elites that Buhari election will trigger a ‘Putin-style’ anti-oligarch campaign aimed at sending many of them to jail to retrieving questionable funds and corrupt investments. Despite all these efforts the larger centrifugal forces of the forthcoming election are still running against the government and favoring ‘change.’

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DaMina Advisors Nigeria Elections VERITAS Model State 2006 Pop Census 2015 INEC Registered Voters PVC (Permanent Voter Cards Collected by Voters) % of Pop with PVCs 2003 Turnout 2011 Turnout DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 Turnout DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 PDP Vote Share DaMina VERITAS MODEL Likely 2015 APC Vote Share DaMina Advisors Analytic Comment
Abia 2,845,380 1,396,162 1,183,127 42% 59.80% 77.95% 69% 692,647 122,232 Abia and most of the pan-ethnic Igbo eastern states to firmly re-elect Jonathan
Abuja (FCT) 1,406,239 881,472 569,109 40% 43.70% 42.19% 40% 100,163 127,480 Capital Abuja to tilt towards Buhari
Adamawa 3,178,950 1,559,012 1,381,571 43% 77.60% 49.98% 60% 298,419 530,523 Boko Haram attacks; PDP elite confusion and unpopular Ribadu governorship quest
Akwa Ibom 3,902,051 1,680,759 1,587,566 41% 80.50% 76.22% 83% 1,185,912 131,768 Presidential stalwart Gov Akpabio to ensure PDP victory
Anambra 4,177,828 1,963,173 1,658,967 40% 48.20% 57.52% 55% 775,567 136,865 New Gov Obiano and pan-Igbo APGA party rooting heavily for Jonathan
Bauchi 4,653,066 2,054,125 1,967,081 42% 81.60% 63.80% 77% 151,465 1,363,187 PDP Party Chairman Muaazu's home state, but the anti-Jonathan wave strong
Bayelsa 1,704,515 610,373 548,585 32% 97.00% 85.61% 95% 469,040 52,116 Jonathan to win home state massively, but Buhari to make small in-roads
Benue 4,253,641 2,015,452 1,607,800 38% 71.10% 43.82% 55% 495,202 389,088 Senate President Mark stays in PDP and rallies state for Jonathan
Borno 4,171,104 1,934,079 1,407,777 34% 62.00% 49.46% 45% 82,355 551,145 Heart of Boko Haram insurgency; PDP will get very few votes
Cross Rivers 2,892,988 1,175,623 983,968 34% 96.00% 63.24% 85% 736,008 100,365 Cross Rivers and other pan-ethnic Igbo eastern states are firmly behind Jonathan
Delta 4,112,445 2,275,264 1,939,952 47% 72.90% 68.82% 75% 1,309,468 145,496 PDP Gov Uduaghan to assure Jonathan victory with large margin
Ebonyi 2,176,947 1,074,273 848,392 39% 80.50% 47.87% 66% 481,547 78,391 Ebonyi firmly behind Jonathan; but PDP Gov Elechi unpopularity to give APC room
Edo 3,233,366 1,779,738 1,224,608 38% 78.00% 37.52% 55% 383,915 289,620 Popular Gov Oshiomole will pull large parts of state to APC, but PDP still strong
Ekiti 2,398,957 732,021 522,107 22% 43.20% 34.24% 40% 98,156 110,687 Ekiti despite recent PDP governorship gain will tilt towards APC
Enugu 3,267,837 1,429,221 1,223,606 37% 77.40% 62.46% 70% 735,874 119,793 Enugu, a major ethnic Igbo state is firmly behind Jonathan
Gombe 2,365,040 1,120,023 1,070,198 45% 80.00% 58.41% 73% 218,748 562,496 Buhari to carry Gombe as he did in 2011; Boko Haram sinks Jonathan further here
Imo 3,927,563 1,803,030 1,707,449 43% 64.60% 83.56% 78% 599,315 732,496 Opposition Gov Rochas Okorochas cottails to help Buhari
Jigawa 4,361,002 1,831,276 1,757,658 40% 70.10% 56.64% 65% 434,142 708,336 Gov Lamido is in PDP, but heart is with Buhari/Obasanjo; APC wins
Kaduna 6,113,503 3,407,222 3,174,519 52% 83.60% 65.81% 75% 904,738 1,476,151 Opposition to topple PDP in Kaduna with pro-Buhari Muslim wave