How far can APC go?

KUNLE ODEREMI writes on the prospects of the newly formed All Progressive Congress [APC] in the political arena if it is eventually registered.
The social media network is abuzz with comments by most Nigerians from far and wide that the mega party formed by the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the All Progressive Alliance (APGA) about what they consider as the necessity or otherwise of the merger of four of the main opposition parties into the All Progressive Congress (APC). In his capacity as the chairman of the merger committee of the ACN, Tom Ikimi, last Wednesday in Abuja, unfolded the party, flanked by some of the leading promoters.
Some critics see the initiative as bordering on the personal ego of the main gladiators.
However, there are many others who see the ‘arrival of APC as god-sent, highly desirable and so deserving of popular support. They corroborate their position with what they regard as the unsalutary effect of the Peoples Democratic Party [PDP] administrations in the country since 1999, arrogance and insensitivity of the leaders to the welfare of the citizens and inertia by fragmented opposition parties. The assumption, according to some observers, is also that PDP appears to be taking things for granted because it realises that the populace has lost confidence in electoral process. They no longer believe that their votes count on who wins an election.
But can the initiators of the new parties absolve themselves from the various negative tendencies that have continued to manifest in the polity since 1999? These untoward factors include seamless corruption in the land, pervert values, general indiscipline among the elite, brazen conversion and acquisition of state properties by privileged few, money politics, unguided ambitions, inability to strike the necessary balance between religion and politics and absence of internal democracy within the parties.

Big names
Some of the other big names include Chief Bisi Akande; Senator Bola Tinubu, Dr Ogbonnaya Onu, Senator Annie Okonkwo, Chief George Moghalu, Chief Olusegun Osoba, Chief Niyi Adebayo, Senator Chris Ngige, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, Mrs Abike Dabiri-Erewa, Senator Kabiru Gaya and Senator Buka Abba-Ibrahim and members of the opposition parties in the National Assembly.This list includes the governors of Yobe, Borno, Nassarawa, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Osun and Imo and Edo.
Buhari and ANPP
He ran on its banner for the presidency twice before dumping the arty to found CPC.  His exit led to acerbic verbal exchanges between his loyalists and some major players in ANPP. Proof that those individuals in both camps have been able to overcome their ego could significantly determine the inroads of APC in the North-East zone, where they had maintained an uncanny rivalry that became the game of PDP.

Zones
The success or otherwise of APC will largely depend on the formidability of its machinery across the six zones. PDP has a relatively huge presence and formidable structures in all the zones, though they had suffered some seizures in a couple of zones. Other factors other than service delivery and good governance have been the staying power of the ruling party in the zones where it consolidated its hold in past elections. The readiness of APC to contend with the factor of incumbency with other tenuous factors cannot be de-emphasised, especially in the South-South, South-East, North-Central and North-West.
But in the South-West, the new party could rely on the strong presence and structures of ACN, which could boast of influential politicians, who have hold their own. The party will need to work extra hard to make serious incursion not the South-East and South-South if most the governors in the two zones should choose to remain in PDP despite likely reservations some of them appear to have for the party, ostensibly because of the 2015 presidency. The governor of Lagos State, Mr. Babatunde Fashola has promised that other governors will soon join the new party. APC will count substantially on Buhari and Shekarau and the governor of Borno State in the North-East, while Senator George Akume and Chief Audu Ogbeh among its leading lights in the North-Central.

Leadership character
There are issues such as the strength and weakness of the leaders, as well as their electoral value, influence and financial standing. The strength of character of the individuals behind the new parry is already becoming a subject of public debate in many circles. Some have raised the issue of integrity which some claim makes General Buhari to stand out in the political scene. Others have identified some of the political actors as of very high electoral value, especially in their constituencies, which could rub off on the APC during elections. But there are others who have been categorized as more of a deficit and liability than asset to the new party.  A lot of them are seen as mere featherweights in view of the fact they have consistently lost in any major poll and offered puerile arguments for their dismal failure or cried blue murder when their parties failed at the polls.
The public perception that a couple of the forces behind the party are still under a moral burden to explicitly convince Nigerians about allegations of gross abuse of office while holding elective positions remains an issue. The social stigma has persisted, making many to believe that it would be suicidal for Nigerians to entrust their life in the hands of such individuals at a higher level of government in the land.
Optimism
Since the party was introduced to the public, the promoters have not only been trying to justify its birth on the failure of PDP to provide good governance and rescue Nigeria, but also intensified efforts to shore up APC’s rating and chances in the political scene. According to a former presidential aspirant of ANPP, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, the leaders had resolved to subsume their personal interests in order to make the project succeed. He said, “I think to the best of my knowledge and understanding, all the people you may think have ambition in all the political parties involved are all ready to sacrifice and play the game of give and take.’’

PDP and others
No doubt, the mega party is bound to give PDP some goose pimples, given its relative unimpressive record of governance and general impunity. Coupled with that is the calibre and pedigree of some of the promoters of APC, some of whom were at one time or the other members of PDP. Another school of thought is the feeling among some party faithful that such persons were familiar with PDP tricks which could come in handy for the new coalition in its quest to create an upset in the next elections. The clamour for power shit could also affect the ability of PDP to leverage in the South-East and the entire northern part of the country, where the feeling is that the next president must come from.

Forces against APC
There are accusations and counter-accusations that PDP was behind some elements working openly or discreetly against the merger. It was accused of giving support to some aggrieved members of the opposition parties involved in the new party in their destabilisation antics and tactics.
The protracted leadership tussle and other internal contradictions in APGA has further widened the gulf among some of the party members after the APC was proclaimed by the leaders. The crisis, which persisted even while the then APGA de facto leader, late Chief Chwukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, was alive, has thrust to the front burner, the issue of ego and personal interest. Consequently, APGA deputy chairman, Chief Uche Ejike, has predicted that APC become history in a matter of six months.

He said: “The mega party is made up of strange bed fellows. Yes, there are strong personalities there, but I give the party six months. It will fall apart soon; it can only be together between now and the next six months.” The anger of some APGA members could be owing to the race for the governorship and other elective offices as some members holding elective offices are bent on seeking another term.
Presidential ticket
Cynics believe the party could face testy times over sharing of key elective offices. So, various permutations are being made as to how the APC leaders hope to address the issue of presidential ticket of the party once it is registered. Initial speculations were that the matter had created a wedge between Buhari and former Governor Bola Tinubu of Lagos State. There was insinuations that while Buhari was uncompromising on his eligibility for the 2015 presidency, the Tinubu camp, nay ACN, said the issue of the presidential race remained open. There is another calculation that the incumbent governor, Fashola, or Oshiomhole of Edo, is being touted as running mate to Buhari, while some claim that the factor of religion favours Chief Segun Osoba or Mr Niyi Adebayo, who were governors between 1999 and 2003 of Ogun and Ekiti states respectively on the banner of the once virile Alliance for Democracy [AD].
NigerianTribune