By Sa’adu A. Jijji
Now that the elections are over and our newly elected (?) leaders are
getting ready to assume their new responsibilities, it is perhaps an
opportune time to reflect on a critical aspect of governance. Chapter 11
of the 1999 Constitution under the heading “Fundamental Objectives and
Directive Principles of State Policy’ avers that ‘…security and welfare
of the people shall be the primary purpose of government….’.
Consequently, the alleviation of extreme poverty across Nigeria is a
major responsibility of government. This paper seeks to highlight, once
more, the prevalent high level of poverty in Nigeria with particular
emphasis on the pathetic situation in the North. The aim of this paper
is to further draw the attention of political leaders, policy makers,
economic actors and the general public to the ‘Poverty Crisis’ currently
facing the North and the urgent need to tackle the issue before it
explodes with consequences beyond the confines of the region.
The North East region has the highest level of poverty in Nigeria.
Wealth Poverty {NigeriaVillageSquare}
Starting with the UNDP “Human Development Index’ report 2006 released
last year to a recent paper presented by Professor Chukwuma Soludo at a
People Democratic Party (PDP) retreat for it’s nominated candidates,
the issue of high levels of poverty in the North has suddenly being
brought to the front burner of national discourse.
Summarily, the UNDP report and Professor Soludo’s paper titled
“Preserving Stability and Accelerating Growth’ highlighted the well
known fact that poverty is more prevalent in the Northern than in the
Southern part of Nigeria. What many may not have known, and which seems
to be the crux of Professor Soludo’s paper, is the magnitude of the
disparity between the North and the South.
To put the issue in perspective, the UNDP report cited above ranks
Nigeria number 159 out of a total of 177 countries measured on the
aggregate index. Nigeria (with a score of 0.448) compares unfavorably to
Norway (0.965) but better than Niger (0.311). According to the report,
Nigerians born today are, on the average, more likely to die before
their 45
th birthday – Japanese born today are more likely to die around the same time with the children of their Nigerian age mates.
To measure poverty, the report uses a much more complex ‘Human
Poverty Index’ in place of the simplified ‘less than $1 dollar a day’
measure. The index attempts to measure not just deprivation but the
quality of life available to the citizens of the country. Using the
Index, Nigeria (with a score of 40.6) ranks 76
th with the same points as Yemen, slightly better than Burundi (40.7) but well below Uruguay (3.3) which placed 1
st in the 155 country list.
In the paper presented to PDP nominees on January 16, 2007, Professor
Chukwuma Soludo, the Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, presented in
graphic terms what any traveler across Nigeria can attest to. According
to his figures, although the average poverty incidence for Nigeria
stands at 54% of the total population, the three regions in the North,
account for a disproportionate share of that average.
With a poverty prevalence of 72.2%, the North East region has
the highest level of poverty in Nigeria. The region is followed closely
by North West (71.1%) and North Central (67.0%). On the contrary, South
East (26.6%) has the lowest level of poverty of poverty in Nigeria
followed by South/South (35.1%) and South West (43.05%).
However, compared to actual poverty prevalence, most Nigerians,
irrespective of their regions, considered themselves much poorer than
they actually are. In fact, more residents of the South East (77.6%) and
South/South (74.85%) considered themselves poor compared to residents
of the North/West (71.9%). This irony is best explained by other
sociological factors as contentment and lack exposure to comparative
levels of poverty – issues beyond the contemplation of this article. On a
state by state basis, the picture is even gloomier for the North.
According to the professor’s paper, the 10 states with the
highest level of poverty in Nigeria are all in the North. Jigawa
(95.0%), Kebbi (89.7%) and Kogi (88.6%) top the list. Conversely, all
the 10 states with the lowest level of poverty are in the South. Bayelsa
(20.0%), Anambra (20.1%) and Abia (22.3%) top the list. These
numbers are what led Professor Soludo to rightly conclude that “very
high level of poverty is essentially a Northern Phenomenon”.
Furthermore, the Professor informed his distinguished audience that the 3
zones in the North (excluding FCT) collectively have less bank deposit
than the South/South zone alone.
In fact, the entire North accounts for a paltry 10.75% of bank
deposits and a meager 8.5% of bank loans. If adjustments are made for
state and local government bank deposits and loans, the picture in the
North would be more frightening as the FCT alone accounts for more than
16% of all bank deposits.
Interestingly, Lagos still accounts for 48% of deposits and
nearly 70% of all bank loans. Summarily, what these numbers tell us is
that were the six geopolitical zones distinct countries, the Northwest
and Northeast ‘Countries’ would be in the same league with Niger
Republic, Chad and Mali while the South East ‘Country’ will be nearer to
China and Korea.
Infact, using the poverty index alone, Jigawa and Kebbi
states, with 9 out of every 10 residents considered poor, are no better
than Eritrea, Bangladesh or Somalia.
Why is there such a level of poverty up North?
Having laid the background, I shall now return to the more important
issues as to why the North has such levels of poverty, the possible
reasons for the sustained disparity in poverty levels between the North
and South and attempt to proffer suggestions on what can be done to
alleviate the situation.
Unfortunately, Professor Soludo’s brilliant paper is short on
diagnosis and completely absent on prescriptions. As the then ‘Acting
Economic Adviser’ to the President, Professor Soludo could have taken
the presentation beyond an academic level.
Considering the politician audience at the event, I wish the
distinguished professor had gone ahead to explain to some of the
Northern Governors (or would-be Governors) how some of their
actions/inactions may have led to the present situation and what could
be done improve the situation.
I strongly believe only a handful of the distinguished audience at
the presentation still remember the crux of Professor Soludo’s
presentation or even bother to keep copies of the paper (which by the
way I got from CBN’s website). So why do we have such comparatively high
levels of poverty in the North? Some commentators have attempted to
explain this phenomenon citing historical, geographical and sociological
factors.
For example, it is a known fact that most coastal areas of
the world tend to be more affluent that their adjoining hinterland.
Likewise, higher levels of atmospheric temperatures seem to correlate
with high levels of poverty – with oil rich Arab countries as obvious exceptions.
Ironically, with the exception of Borno state, all the five states
with the highest level of atmospheric temperature in Nigeria are in
Professor Soludo’s Bottom 10. Some commentators have even gone ahead to
cite as evidence to support the ‘Geography theory’ the fact that the
‘Equator’, the imaginary line that divides the earth into Southern and
Northern hemispheres, passes through only poor countries from Gabon,
Kenya to Ecuador. Could the reason for such high levels of poverty be
historical?
Praying for Prosperity
Colonization, and subsequently modernization and westernization, came
to Nigeria through the South. Politically (in the sense of organized
societies) the North may have been ahead of the south at the end of the
19
th century but the impact of colonization at the turn of the 20
th century was to have a defining effect on the south.
Western education, trading opportunities, literacy and access to
western technologies and innovations seem to have conspired to give the
Southern Part of Nigeria a head start in economic and social
development. The ‘Indirect rule’ policy Lord Lugard adopted in the North
which, in part was in admiration of the advanced political system of
the region, also meant that traditional institutions and practices that
could also act to stifle economic growth and development were left to
flourish.
The concomitant effect of this was that from the onset, the Northern
region was simply on a ‘catching’ game with the south. Now in any race
where one participant has an initial advantage over the other, there are
only two ways that the other party can catch up. First, the lagging
party accelerates his speed not only beyond his current level but also
in excess of the speed of the leading party who presumably is not
stationary. Second, the leading party slows down (or is made to slow
down) to allow the lagging party to catch up with him.
In Nigeria’s economic development, it appears the neither the
Northern states nor the Federal government seem to be pursuing either of
these policies. In actual fact, the disparity in levels of economic
development between the south and the North seems to be widening with
time.
In a report compiled in 2000 by Ben E. Aigbokhan for the African
Economic Research Consortium based in Nairobi Kenya, the author
conclusively showed that even though poverty levels have been on the
increase in Nigeria from 1985 (38%) to 1996 (47%), the growth in poverty
was actually accounted for the deterioration in the North which
actually wiped out the relative gains recorded in the South during the
same period.
In that report, Bauchi, Jigawa and Yobe states accounted for the
highest level of poverty in Nigeria. According Professor Soludo’s paper,
by 1980, the difference, in percentage basis points, of the poverty
prevalence rate between the richest region (South East) and the poorest
region (North West) was 24 points. By 2004, the difference between the
same regions has widened to 44 points. What this translates to is that
at current trends, the North has no real chance of bridging the gap talk
less of catching up with the South.
Other commentators have attempted a sociological explanation to the
high levels of poverty in the North. They contend that Northerners are
generally laid back, less adventurous, less frugal, less educated, tend
to be polygamous and generally mistake complacency for contentment.
Proponents of this school contend that high level of poverty prevalent
in the North is directly the result of this attitudinal problem. They
cite the relatively low economic level of the average Northerners
resident in the South (mostly petty traders, security men and beggars)
and the relative affluence of the some southerners (mostly Igbos)
resident in the North as justification that geography and history cannot
fully explain this persistent disparity.
The major argument against this school is that compared to his counterpart that stays back in the North, the average
Northerner
that emigrates to the South (even as a beggar) is still better off
simply because of the opportunities provided by the level of economic
activities in his host region.
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Differential opportunities, not promoted
In my view, several factors have conspired to lead to the present
situation. According to the ‘Global Poverty Report’ submitted to members
of the G8 group of industrialized countries at their meeting in Okinawa
in July, 2000, ‘……The main causes of poverty in Africa are the low
levels of productivity and production technology, especially in the
agricultural sector which provides most of the employment and a large
share of the GDP………”. By its agrarian and landlocked nature, the North
has competitive advantage in basically three economic activities.
Agriculture, Agro-Allied Industries and Extractive based industries.
It is difficult to see any coherent and consistent plan for boosting
agricultural production in the Northern region. A plan aimed at, for
instance, doubling the production of Maize, Beans, Groundnut, Wheat or
Cotton in the short / medium term. While states like Kwara and Kebbi see
the need to bring in foreign large scale farmers from Zimbabwe and
China, other states like Kano think fertilizer is the major issue with
farming in the state. Jigawa state even has this ingenious idea of
promoting the farming of snakes and frogs for export to Asia in addition
to cultivating sugar cane for the production of ethanol. Other states
like Bauchi, Niger and Yobe simply appear at a loss on what policy to
pursue.
The net effect is that whatever gains are achieved in a particular
state are difficult to sustain beyond a particular administration or is
consumed by the inertia of the neighboring states. Certainly this state
of affairs is not helped by the seeming lack of direction from the
Federal Government. Considering the major role of agriculture in the
economy of Northern Nigeria and its potential for alleviating poverty in
the region, you sometimes wonder why lip service is still paid to this
sector in the North.
Nigeria's Northern Beggars {pmnews}
The inability of the Northern region to develop or sustain any
competitive advantage in the region based on Agro- Allied industries is
best exemplified by the current situation in the textile industry.
Most of the textile industries in the North which provide direct
employment to thousands of Northerners and indirect employment to
millions through cotton farming have simply closed down. Either because
of a cloudy policy direction or insufficient political will, political
leaders in the North have been unable to bring any pressure to bear on
the Federal Government to enforce its ban on textile imports into
Nigeria and grant other concessions to textile manufacturers. In fact,
more textile firms have closed since the president launched his “Cotton
Farming Initiative’ in Kaduna in 2005.
Ironically, many of the Northern governors attend the “Northern
Governors Forum’ clad in attires made from these banned textile
materials to discuss the state of textile industries in the region. In
the 70s/80s, Funtua, Gombe and Gusau were centres of cotton activities
with many flourishing ginneries. Today, most of these ginneries have
closed down rendering thousands without any income and exacerbating the
poverty situation in the region.
In Borno State, the shoe factory commissioned in the 80s to take
advantage of the abundant hide and skin in the area is no longer in
operation. The Savannah Sugar Factory in Adamawa and the Bacita Sugar
Factory in Kwara were comatose for several years rendering thousands
without any income until the federal government decided to sell these
factories. When you add all these to the several factories that have
closed shop in Sharada, Bompai and Kawaji industrial areas in Kano
mainly due to power supply issues, it is easy to understand why the
North has the highest unemployment rate in the country. Unemployment, in
the absence of social welfare, equates poverty. In this light, the
multi billion naira ‘Textile Industry Support Initiative’ launched by
the past administration is viewed with cautionary optimism.
Furthermore, the other area that the region could have developed a
competitive advantage is in developing industries based on extractive
materials. Because of the abundant lime stone deposits in the region,
the North has the capacity to produce cement to meet the entire national
demand and for export. Yet, but for the recent Dangote’s Obajana
Factory (in Kogi), there were only three cement industries in the
region. Of the three, Benue Cement, until recently was down for more
than 4 years, CCNN in Sokoto was so badly managed that it took the
intervention of privatization to restore it to its current state. Ashaka
Cement was perhaps the major exception to this. The company has
performed exceptionally well over the years (under the watchful eyes of
Blue Cycle UK and later Lafarge France- the technical partners) and
contributed in no small measure to improving the economic lot of its
host state, Gombe. To buttress the poverty reduction impact of
employment generating companies, none of the bottom 7 states in Prof.
Soludo’s presentation has any particular company that provides direct
employment to up to 500 people. Other extractive based industries that
the region has failed to develop include solid minerals, gypsum, and
kaolin.
Poorer leadership
Another issue that has contributed to the rapidly declining fortunes
of the average Northerner is the quality of leadership at the state
level in the North. Although leadership challenge is across Nigeria, but
because of the pervasive nature of government influence on the Northern
economy, the impact of leadership is felt more in the North than in the
South.
Former Togolese leader Eyadema’s theory that ‘one year of bad governance retards development for 10 years’
finds true expression in the region. In a state like Lagos, touted to
be the fourth largest economy in Africa, the misrule of a bad governor
will not be felt as it would in a state like Taraba where the fortunes
of every resident seems to be related to the government directly or
remotely. Critical as leadership is to the North, the region has not
been fortunate. Many governors in the regions simply have little or no
idea about how to alleviate poverty or foster economic development in
their states.
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In the North, when a governor is said to be ‘performing’,
what it means is that his administration has succeeded in building
roads, hospitals and even Airports. Nobody talks about job creation as
if roads, by themselves, provide income to the citizenry or hospitals
can prevent poverty induced ailments. Take the construction of a
dual carriage way in a Northern state capital for instance; more than
80% of the expenditure of that contract is expended outside the economy
of the state and the region. Apart from the wages expended on temporary
laborers and the amount expended on sand and gravel, little of the
contract sum has any impact on the economy of the state. After the road
is completed, somebody needs to ask the important question; what are the
real economic benefits of the road to the state?
Could another more economically impacting activity have been done
with the money? In the last four years, two of the states listed in
Professor Soludo’s bottom 10 have committed more than =N=3 billion naira
each to building an airport in their respective state capitals. Apart
from the occasional ‘VIP Movements’ experienced at these airports, these
projects have only an emotional value to the populace of these states.
It is difficult to imagine that the huge sums expended on these projects
could not have been better utilized in purchasing tractors or enhanced
seedlings or as ‘micro credit’ to rural farmers.
Take the case of another two states in Soludo’s bottom 10-Sokoto and
Bauchi states. Now, any visitor to these states cannot but be impressed
with the level of infrastructural development achieved in the last 8
years – and the Governors have several awards to show for that. It is
difficult to compare what has been achieved in these two states with the
‘little’ achieved in states like Abia and Anambra which ironically are
in the top 3.
This begs the question, are these northern states
pursuing the wrong ‘development’? My view is that unless we begin to
measure government programs and activities in the North through the
prism of real economic indicators like ‘Impact on state GDP’ and ‘Job
Creation’, we may never have a proper view of our economic development.
In addition to all these, politics and politicians have also played a
negative part in the economic development of the region by misdirecting
productive effort in the North from economic activities to politics.
Northerners, of all ages, spent a disproportionate amount of time and
energy either discussing or participating in politics compared to their
colleagues in other regions of the country. Furthermore, because there
is no middle class in the region; the only role models that Northern
youths look up to are the many corrupt government officials or
contractors in the region. Youths in the North, are lured away from
school and work to serve as political hangers-on or as thugs while their
colleagues in the west are in school and the ones in the east are in
their shops.
Suggestions
The ‘Millennium Project (2005)’ has identified a four step strategy
for achieving the No 1 MDG goal of halving poverty by 2015. This four
step strategy involves distilling the root causes of and dimensioning
poverty prevalence across region and gender, conducting a needs
assessment of the public investments required, developing a 10 year
framework for action and elaborating a 3-5 year poverty reduction
strategy within the context of the 10 year plan. My humble suggestions
revolve around a 3-5 strategy with particular emphasis on food
production and job creation. Other important issues like access to
health care and education will be greatly impacted by improved nutrition
(disease prevention) and wealth creation (improved school enrollment
due to reduced child labor).
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First, the 19 Northern states, under the guidance of the federal
government, need to urgently develop a collective agricultural plan.
This holistic plan should be based on the competitive advantage in the
North. Each state should have one or two particular crops, the
production of which it shall aggressively pursue. Concerted efforts will
then be made to support the production of these crops through improved
seedlings, advanced farming techniques, provision of adequate
fertilizer, agricultural soft loans and other incentives.
This plan can be better achieved by encouraging large scale farming
as opposed to the current subsistence farming. In each state, farmers
with the capacity to cultivate above 100 hectares should be identified,
developed, trained and supported.
This approach will inevitably lead to better management of resources
and sustainable employment. ‘Importing’ commercial farmers from abroad
is not a bad idea, it should be encouraged, but more importantly is to
develop indigenous large scale farmers who are better placed to provide
sustainable growth and impact.
To avoid a situation of depressed prices during periods of bumper
harvest, states need to intervene in guaranteeing prices for farm
products. This can be achieved through direct intervention in the market
or through increased participation in the upcoming commodity exchange.
For the subsistence farmers, a robust ‘micro credit’ similar to Mohammed
Yunus’s Grameen Bank scheme in Bangladesh needs to be developed. The
current =N=50 billion federal government initiative will be a good
starting point.
Second, there is an urgent need to quickly articulate an
industrialization policy for the region. In which industry does the
region have a competitive advantage? How can entrepreneurs be developed
and supported in the region? How can we stem religious and ethnic strife
that discourages investments in the region? What will be the short,
medium and long-term milestones to be achieved? Which industries will
have the most multiplier effect on the Northern economy? How will the
issue of power and fuel supply be handled within the national framework?
How can small and medium scale industries be developed in the region?
How can we cultivate the entrepreneurial spirit in the average
northerner?
In pursuing these objectives, the role of the New Nigerian
Development Company (NNDC) as the investment arm of the northern sates
will have to be properly articulated. For a start, NNDC has to be
recapitalized and staffed with technocrats. The company’s current
bureaucratic, top heavy structure needs to give way to a more focused
and dynamic structure. To develop businesses and improve the managerial
skills of upcoming entrepreneurs, NNDC needs to incorporate a Venture
Capital Company. The envisaged company will not only provide equity
participation in entrepreneurial start-ups but will also avail budding
entrepreneurs with management best practices in the conception and
weaning of these enterprises. Even the investment decisions of NNDC will
have to be streamlined to achieve the predetermined objective of
economic development of the region. What sense does it make sense for
NNDC to invest billions in Nestle Plc when that investment cannot
influence Nestle to locate one of its plants in the region? How come the
substantial investment of NNDC and the states governments in banks
translate to only ‘8.5% of total bank loans’ to the region?
Third, political leadership in the region have to reassess their
developmental priorities. Critical questions should be asked before any
project is embarked by states in the region? Questions like what is the
economic value of this project to the state? Does it have any multiplier
effect on the economy? Is the project sustainable? What other
alternatives are there for this expenditure? In addition, states should
strive to ensure that whatever allocation comes to them from the federal
government, or is generated locally, is as much as possible retained
within the state economy. Whenever any contract is awarded by a state
government, care should be taken to ensure that as much as possible the
contractor uses as much local content as possible. This should not be
confused with awarding contracts to state indigenes which may not
necessarily achieve the intended objective. ‘White elephant’ projects
like airports and trade fair complexes should as much as possible be
curtailed. These projects in reality do very little to aid the economy
of the state even though they consume huge sums of money. Any state that
ignores this simple idea will end up being like Bauchi. A beautiful
state with good roads and other infrastructure but whose citizens
continue to live in penury.
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Lastly, northerners have to collectively take their destiny in their
own hands by electing and promoting good leaders. Some will argue that
ultimately, a society gets the kinds of leaders it deserves as leaders
are embodiments of their society’s virtues and vices, capacities and
constraints. However, I still firmly believe that upcoming generations
of northerners need to take the charge in leading this crusade for
change.
The North needs to develop leaders that posses characteristic that
transcend its people’s present level of consciousness. We cannot rely on
luck or chance for these leaders to emerge like a ‘Flash in the Pan’.
As far as I know, there are only two special reasons why Sir Ahmadu
Bello, the former premier of the Northern Region is still celebrated in
the region. First, he had the foresight and vision to institutionalize
some policies that continue to bear fruit for the region. Second,
successive generations of leaders in the region have been unable to
match or surpass his achievements in their smaller domains.
This indictment on the collective abilities of northerners need not
be so. And can be changed. I strongly urge northerners who have been
privileged in one way or the other to reflect back on the state of their
communities and see what they can do individually or collectively to
improve the fortunes of their society. Either as political or business
leaders, Northerners have to invest in the North and draw investments to
the North before this level of deprivation can be reduced.
Northerners should always remember that whatever may be their
personal achievement in life, the larger society will always view them
through the prism of economic and social status of their community.
Today, the average northerner is viewed as more closely related to the
economic and social status of the alms beggar on Borno Street in Ebute
Metta, Lagos than to the fortunes of Aliko Dangote who is generally
viewed as an aberration.
In conclusion, the level of economic deprivation in the north is not a
local issue. The situation portends a grave danger to the fortunes of
the entire nation. Like a chain, Nigeria is only as strong as its
weakest link. The federal government and indeed all Nigerians must seek
ways of assisting the region improve its economic lot. With arguably the
largest population of Nigerians residing in the North, there is no way
the collective fortune of Nigeria can be improved without immediately
addressing the issue of acute poverty in the region.
I call on the Federal Government to immediately declare an economic
emergency in the Northern region and put in place measures to assist
northerners uplift their economic status. Unless this is done, Nigeria
faces the risk of entrenching economic inequalities not only across
social classes but also across geographical lines. This will certainly
hinder national unity and development.
