Now that the elections are over and our newly elected (?) leaders are getting ready to assume their new responsibilities, it is perhaps an opportune time to reflect on a critical aspect of governance. Chapter 11 of the 1999 Constitution under the heading “Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy’ avers that ‘…security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government….’. Consequently, the alleviation of extreme poverty across Nigeria is a major responsibility of government. This paper seeks to highlight, once more, the prevalent high level of poverty in Nigeria with particular emphasis on the pathetic situation in the North. The aim of this paper is to further draw the attention of political leaders, policy makers, economic actors and the general public to the ‘Poverty Crisis’ currently facing the North and the urgent need to tackle the issue before it explodes with consequences beyond the confines of the region.
The North East region has the highest level of poverty in Nigeria.
Wealth Poverty {NigeriaVillageSquare}
Summarily, the UNDP report and Professor Soludo’s paper titled “Preserving Stability and Accelerating Growth’ highlighted the well known fact that poverty is more prevalent in the Northern than in the Southern part of Nigeria. What many may not have known, and which seems to be the crux of Professor Soludo’s paper, is the magnitude of the disparity between the North and the South.
To put the issue in perspective, the UNDP report cited above ranks Nigeria number 159 out of a total of 177 countries measured on the aggregate index. Nigeria (with a score of 0.448) compares unfavorably to Norway (0.965) but better than Niger (0.311). According to the report, Nigerians born today are, on the average, more likely to die before their 45th birthday – Japanese born today are more likely to die around the same time with the children of their Nigerian age mates.
To measure poverty, the report uses a much more complex ‘Human Poverty Index’ in place of the simplified ‘less than $1 dollar a day’ measure. The index attempts to measure not just deprivation but the quality of life available to the citizens of the country. Using the Index, Nigeria (with a score of 40.6) ranks 76th with the same points as Yemen, slightly better than Burundi (40.7) but well below Uruguay (3.3) which placed 1st in the 155 country list.
In the paper presented to PDP nominees on January 16, 2007, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, the Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, presented in graphic terms what any traveler across Nigeria can attest to. According to his figures, although the average poverty incidence for Nigeria stands at 54% of the total population, the three regions in the North, account for a disproportionate share of that average.
With a poverty prevalence of 72.2%, the North East region has the highest level of poverty in Nigeria. The region is followed closely by North West (71.1%) and North Central (67.0%). On the contrary, South East (26.6%) has the lowest level of poverty of poverty in Nigeria followed by South/South (35.1%) and South West (43.05%).
However, compared to actual poverty prevalence, most Nigerians, irrespective of their regions, considered themselves much poorer than they actually are. In fact, more residents of the South East (77.6%) and South/South (74.85%) considered themselves poor compared to residents of the North/West (71.9%). This irony is best explained by other sociological factors as contentment and lack exposure to comparative levels of poverty – issues beyond the contemplation of this article. On a state by state basis, the picture is even gloomier for the North.
According to the professor’s paper, the 10 states with the highest level of poverty in Nigeria are all in the North. Jigawa (95.0%), Kebbi (89.7%) and Kogi (88.6%) top the list. Conversely, all the 10 states with the lowest level of poverty are in the South. Bayelsa (20.0%), Anambra (20.1%) and Abia (22.3%) top the list. These numbers are what led Professor Soludo to rightly conclude that “very high level of poverty is essentially a Northern Phenomenon”. Furthermore, the Professor informed his distinguished audience that the 3 zones in the North (excluding FCT) collectively have less bank deposit than the South/South zone alone.
In fact, the entire North accounts for a paltry 10.75% of bank deposits and a meager 8.5% of bank loans. If adjustments are made for state and local government bank deposits and loans, the picture in the North would be more frightening as the FCT alone accounts for more than 16% of all bank deposits.
Interestingly, Lagos still accounts for 48% of deposits and nearly 70% of all bank loans. Summarily, what these numbers tell us is that were the six geopolitical zones distinct countries, the Northwest and Northeast ‘Countries’ would be in the same league with Niger Republic, Chad and Mali while the South East ‘Country’ will be nearer to China and Korea.
Infact, using the poverty index alone, Jigawa and Kebbi states, with 9 out of every 10 residents considered poor, are no better than Eritrea, Bangladesh or Somalia.
Why is there such a level of poverty up North?
Having laid the background, I shall now return to the more important issues as to why the North has such levels of poverty, the possible reasons for the sustained disparity in poverty levels between the North and South and attempt to proffer suggestions on what can be done to alleviate the situation.Unfortunately, Professor Soludo’s brilliant paper is short on diagnosis and completely absent on prescriptions. As the then ‘Acting Economic Adviser’ to the President, Professor Soludo could have taken the presentation beyond an academic level.
Considering the politician audience at the event, I wish the distinguished professor had gone ahead to explain to some of the Northern Governors (or would-be Governors) how some of their actions/inactions may have led to the present situation and what could be done improve the situation.
I strongly believe only a handful of the distinguished audience at the presentation still remember the crux of Professor Soludo’s presentation or even bother to keep copies of the paper (which by the way I got from CBN’s website). So why do we have such comparatively high levels of poverty in the North? Some commentators have attempted to explain this phenomenon citing historical, geographical and sociological factors.
For example, it is a known fact that most coastal areas of the world tend to be more affluent that their adjoining hinterland. Likewise, higher levels of atmospheric temperatures seem to correlate with high levels of poverty – with oil rich Arab countries as obvious exceptions.
Ironically, with the exception of Borno state, all the five states with the highest level of atmospheric temperature in Nigeria are in Professor Soludo’s Bottom 10. Some commentators have even gone ahead to cite as evidence to support the ‘Geography theory’ the fact that the ‘Equator’, the imaginary line that divides the earth into Southern and Northern hemispheres, passes through only poor countries from Gabon, Kenya to Ecuador. Could the reason for such high levels of poverty be historical?
Praying for Prosperity
Western education, trading opportunities, literacy and access to western technologies and innovations seem to have conspired to give the Southern Part of Nigeria a head start in economic and social development. The ‘Indirect rule’ policy Lord Lugard adopted in the North which, in part was in admiration of the advanced political system of the region, also meant that traditional institutions and practices that could also act to stifle economic growth and development were left to flourish.
The concomitant effect of this was that from the onset, the Northern region was simply on a ‘catching’ game with the south. Now in any race where one participant has an initial advantage over the other, there are only two ways that the other party can catch up. First, the lagging party accelerates his speed not only beyond his current level but also in excess of the speed of the leading party who presumably is not stationary. Second, the leading party slows down (or is made to slow down) to allow the lagging party to catch up with him.
In Nigeria’s economic development, it appears the neither the Northern states nor the Federal government seem to be pursuing either of these policies. In actual fact, the disparity in levels of economic development between the south and the North seems to be widening with time.
In a report compiled in 2000 by Ben E. Aigbokhan for the African Economic Research Consortium based in Nairobi Kenya, the author conclusively showed that even though poverty levels have been on the increase in Nigeria from 1985 (38%) to 1996 (47%), the growth in poverty was actually accounted for the deterioration in the North which actually wiped out the relative gains recorded in the South during the same period.
In that report, Bauchi, Jigawa and Yobe states accounted for the highest level of poverty in Nigeria. According Professor Soludo’s paper, by 1980, the difference, in percentage basis points, of the poverty prevalence rate between the richest region (South East) and the poorest region (North West) was 24 points. By 2004, the difference between the same regions has widened to 44 points. What this translates to is that at current trends, the North has no real chance of bridging the gap talk less of catching up with the South.
Other commentators have attempted a sociological explanation to the high levels of poverty in the North. They contend that Northerners are generally laid back, less adventurous, less frugal, less educated, tend to be polygamous and generally mistake complacency for contentment. Proponents of this school contend that high level of poverty prevalent in the North is directly the result of this attitudinal problem. They cite the relatively low economic level of the average Northerners resident in the South (mostly petty traders, security men and beggars) and the relative affluence of the some southerners (mostly Igbos) resident in the North as justification that geography and history cannot fully explain this persistent disparity.
The major argument against this school is that compared to his counterpart that stays back in the North, the average Northerner that emigrates to the South (even as a beggar) is still better off simply because of the opportunities provided by the level of economic activities in his host region.
Related: NewsRescue- Boko Haram and the deadly crises in North Nigeria- 400+ dead
Differential opportunities, not promoted
In my view, several factors have conspired to lead to the present situation. According to the ‘Global Poverty Report’ submitted to members of the G8 group of industrialized countries at their meeting in Okinawa in July, 2000, ‘……The main causes of poverty in Africa are the low levels of productivity and production technology, especially in the agricultural sector which provides most of the employment and a large share of the GDP………”. By its agrarian and landlocked nature, the North has competitive advantage in basically three economic activities.Agriculture, Agro-Allied Industries and Extractive based industries. It is difficult to see any coherent and consistent plan for boosting agricultural production in the Northern region. A plan aimed at, for instance, doubling the production of Maize, Beans, Groundnut, Wheat or Cotton in the short / medium term. While states like Kwara and Kebbi see the need to bring in foreign large scale farmers from Zimbabwe and China, other states like Kano think fertilizer is the major issue with farming in the state. Jigawa state even has this ingenious idea of promoting the farming of snakes and frogs for export to Asia in addition to cultivating sugar cane for the production of ethanol. Other states like Bauchi, Niger and Yobe simply appear at a loss on what policy to pursue.
The net effect is that whatever gains are achieved in a particular state are difficult to sustain beyond a particular administration or is consumed by the inertia of the neighboring states. Certainly this state of affairs is not helped by the seeming lack of direction from the Federal Government. Considering the major role of agriculture in the economy of Northern Nigeria and its potential for alleviating poverty in the region, you sometimes wonder why lip service is still paid to this sector in the North.
Nigeria's Northern Beggars {pmnews}
Most of the textile industries in the North which provide direct employment to thousands of Northerners and indirect employment to millions through cotton farming have simply closed down. Either because of a cloudy policy direction or insufficient political will, political leaders in the North have been unable to bring any pressure to bear on the Federal Government to enforce its ban on textile imports into Nigeria and grant other concessions to textile manufacturers. In fact, more textile firms have closed since the president launched his “Cotton Farming Initiative’ in Kaduna in 2005.
Ironically, many of the Northern governors attend the “Northern Governors Forum’ clad in attires made from these banned textile materials to discuss the state of textile industries in the region. In the 70s/80s, Funtua, Gombe and Gusau were centres of cotton activities with many flourishing ginneries. Today, most of these ginneries have closed down rendering thousands without any income and exacerbating the poverty situation in the region.
In Borno State, the shoe factory commissioned in the 80s to take advantage of the abundant hide and skin in the area is no longer in operation. The Savannah Sugar Factory in Adamawa and the Bacita Sugar Factory in Kwara were comatose for several years rendering thousands without any income until the federal government decided to sell these factories. When you add all these to the several factories that have closed shop in Sharada, Bompai and Kawaji industrial areas in Kano mainly due to power supply issues, it is easy to understand why the North has the highest unemployment rate in the country. Unemployment, in the absence of social welfare, equates poverty. In this light, the multi billion naira ‘Textile Industry Support Initiative’ launched by the past administration is viewed with cautionary optimism.
Furthermore, the other area that the region could have developed a competitive advantage is in developing industries based on extractive materials. Because of the abundant lime stone deposits in the region, the North has the capacity to produce cement to meet the entire national demand and for export. Yet, but for the recent Dangote’s Obajana Factory (in Kogi), there were only three cement industries in the region. Of the three, Benue Cement, until recently was down for more than 4 years, CCNN in Sokoto was so badly managed that it took the intervention of privatization to restore it to its current state. Ashaka Cement was perhaps the major exception to this. The company has performed exceptionally well over the years (under the watchful eyes of Blue Cycle UK and later Lafarge France- the technical partners) and contributed in no small measure to improving the economic lot of its host state, Gombe. To buttress the poverty reduction impact of employment generating companies, none of the bottom 7 states in Prof. Soludo’s presentation has any particular company that provides direct employment to up to 500 people. Other extractive based industries that the region has failed to develop include solid minerals, gypsum, and kaolin.
Poorer leadership
Another issue that has contributed to the rapidly declining fortunes
of the average Northerner is the quality of leadership at the state
level in the North. Although leadership challenge is across Nigeria, but
because of the pervasive nature of government influence on the Northern
economy, the impact of leadership is felt more in the North than in the
South. Former Togolese leader Eyadema’s theory that ‘one year of bad governance retards development for 10 years’
finds true expression in the region. In a state like Lagos, touted to
be the fourth largest economy in Africa, the misrule of a bad governor
will not be felt as it would in a state like Taraba where the fortunes
of every resident seems to be related to the government directly or
remotely. Critical as leadership is to the North, the region has not
been fortunate. Many governors in the regions simply have little or no
idea about how to alleviate poverty or foster economic development in
their states.Related: NewsRescue- Democracy Fails Africa
In the North, when a governor is said to be ‘performing’, what it means is that his administration has succeeded in building roads, hospitals and even Airports. Nobody talks about job creation as if roads, by themselves, provide income to the citizenry or hospitals can prevent poverty induced ailments. Take the construction of a dual carriage way in a Northern state capital for instance; more than 80% of the expenditure of that contract is expended outside the economy of the state and the region. Apart from the wages expended on temporary laborers and the amount expended on sand and gravel, little of the contract sum has any impact on the economy of the state. After the road is completed, somebody needs to ask the important question; what are the real economic benefits of the road to the state?
Could another more economically impacting activity have been done with the money? In the last four years, two of the states listed in Professor Soludo’s bottom 10 have committed more than =N=3 billion naira each to building an airport in their respective state capitals. Apart from the occasional ‘VIP Movements’ experienced at these airports, these projects have only an emotional value to the populace of these states. It is difficult to imagine that the huge sums expended on these projects could not have been better utilized in purchasing tractors or enhanced seedlings or as ‘micro credit’ to rural farmers.
Take the case of another two states in Soludo’s bottom 10-Sokoto and Bauchi states. Now, any visitor to these states cannot but be impressed with the level of infrastructural development achieved in the last 8 years – and the Governors have several awards to show for that. It is difficult to compare what has been achieved in these two states with the ‘little’ achieved in states like Abia and Anambra which ironically are in the top 3. This begs the question, are these northern states pursuing the wrong ‘development’? My view is that unless we begin to measure government programs and activities in the North through the prism of real economic indicators like ‘Impact on state GDP’ and ‘Job Creation’, we may never have a proper view of our economic development.
In addition to all these, politics and politicians have also played a negative part in the economic development of the region by misdirecting productive effort in the North from economic activities to politics. Northerners, of all ages, spent a disproportionate amount of time and energy either discussing or participating in politics compared to their colleagues in other regions of the country. Furthermore, because there is no middle class in the region; the only role models that Northern youths look up to are the many corrupt government officials or contractors in the region. Youths in the North, are lured away from school and work to serve as political hangers-on or as thugs while their colleagues in the west are in school and the ones in the east are in their shops.
Suggestions
The ‘Millennium Project (2005)’ has identified a four step strategy for achieving the No 1 MDG goal of halving poverty by 2015. This four step strategy involves distilling the root causes of and dimensioning poverty prevalence across region and gender, conducting a needs assessment of the public investments required, developing a 10 year framework for action and elaborating a 3-5 year poverty reduction strategy within the context of the 10 year plan. My humble suggestions revolve around a 3-5 strategy with particular emphasis on food production and job creation. Other important issues like access to health care and education will be greatly impacted by improved nutrition (disease prevention) and wealth creation (improved school enrollment due to reduced child labor).Related: NewsRescue- Nigeria’s problem isn’t Islamist fundamentalism — it’s the country’s corrupt and self-serving government.
First, the 19 Northern states, under the guidance of the federal government, need to urgently develop a collective agricultural plan. This holistic plan should be based on the competitive advantage in the North. Each state should have one or two particular crops, the production of which it shall aggressively pursue. Concerted efforts will then be made to support the production of these crops through improved seedlings, advanced farming techniques, provision of adequate fertilizer, agricultural soft loans and other incentives.
This plan can be better achieved by encouraging large scale farming as opposed to the current subsistence farming. In each state, farmers with the capacity to cultivate above 100 hectares should be identified, developed, trained and supported.
This approach will inevitably lead to better management of resources and sustainable employment. ‘Importing’ commercial farmers from abroad is not a bad idea, it should be encouraged, but more importantly is to develop indigenous large scale farmers who are better placed to provide sustainable growth and impact.
To avoid a situation of depressed prices during periods of bumper harvest, states need to intervene in guaranteeing prices for farm products. This can be achieved through direct intervention in the market or through increased participation in the upcoming commodity exchange. For the subsistence farmers, a robust ‘micro credit’ similar to Mohammed Yunus’s Grameen Bank scheme in Bangladesh needs to be developed. The current =N=50 billion federal government initiative will be a good starting point.
Second, there is an urgent need to quickly articulate an industrialization policy for the region. In which industry does the region have a competitive advantage? How can entrepreneurs be developed and supported in the region? How can we stem religious and ethnic strife that discourages investments in the region? What will be the short, medium and long-term milestones to be achieved? Which industries will have the most multiplier effect on the Northern economy? How will the issue of power and fuel supply be handled within the national framework? How can small and medium scale industries be developed in the region? How can we cultivate the entrepreneurial spirit in the average northerner?
In pursuing these objectives, the role of the New Nigerian Development Company (NNDC) as the investment arm of the northern sates will have to be properly articulated. For a start, NNDC has to be recapitalized and staffed with technocrats. The company’s current bureaucratic, top heavy structure needs to give way to a more focused and dynamic structure. To develop businesses and improve the managerial skills of upcoming entrepreneurs, NNDC needs to incorporate a Venture Capital Company. The envisaged company will not only provide equity participation in entrepreneurial start-ups but will also avail budding entrepreneurs with management best practices in the conception and weaning of these enterprises. Even the investment decisions of NNDC will have to be streamlined to achieve the predetermined objective of economic development of the region. What sense does it make sense for NNDC to invest billions in Nestle Plc when that investment cannot influence Nestle to locate one of its plants in the region? How come the substantial investment of NNDC and the states governments in banks translate to only ‘8.5% of total bank loans’ to the region?
Third, political leadership in the region have to reassess their developmental priorities. Critical questions should be asked before any project is embarked by states in the region? Questions like what is the economic value of this project to the state? Does it have any multiplier effect on the economy? Is the project sustainable? What other alternatives are there for this expenditure? In addition, states should strive to ensure that whatever allocation comes to them from the federal government, or is generated locally, is as much as possible retained within the state economy. Whenever any contract is awarded by a state government, care should be taken to ensure that as much as possible the contractor uses as much local content as possible. This should not be confused with awarding contracts to state indigenes which may not necessarily achieve the intended objective. ‘White elephant’ projects like airports and trade fair complexes should as much as possible be curtailed. These projects in reality do very little to aid the economy of the state even though they consume huge sums of money. Any state that ignores this simple idea will end up being like Bauchi. A beautiful state with good roads and other infrastructure but whose citizens continue to live in penury.
Related: NewsRescue- Towards economic development of the North
Lastly, northerners have to collectively take their destiny in their own hands by electing and promoting good leaders. Some will argue that ultimately, a society gets the kinds of leaders it deserves as leaders are embodiments of their society’s virtues and vices, capacities and constraints. However, I still firmly believe that upcoming generations of northerners need to take the charge in leading this crusade for change.
The North needs to develop leaders that posses characteristic that transcend its people’s present level of consciousness. We cannot rely on luck or chance for these leaders to emerge like a ‘Flash in the Pan’. As far as I know, there are only two special reasons why Sir Ahmadu Bello, the former premier of the Northern Region is still celebrated in the region. First, he had the foresight and vision to institutionalize some policies that continue to bear fruit for the region. Second, successive generations of leaders in the region have been unable to match or surpass his achievements in their smaller domains.
This indictment on the collective abilities of northerners need not be so. And can be changed. I strongly urge northerners who have been privileged in one way or the other to reflect back on the state of their communities and see what they can do individually or collectively to improve the fortunes of their society. Either as political or business leaders, Northerners have to invest in the North and draw investments to the North before this level of deprivation can be reduced.
Northerners should always remember that whatever may be their personal achievement in life, the larger society will always view them through the prism of economic and social status of their community. Today, the average northerner is viewed as more closely related to the economic and social status of the alms beggar on Borno Street in Ebute Metta, Lagos than to the fortunes of Aliko Dangote who is generally viewed as an aberration.
In conclusion, the level of economic deprivation in the north is not a local issue. The situation portends a grave danger to the fortunes of the entire nation. Like a chain, Nigeria is only as strong as its weakest link. The federal government and indeed all Nigerians must seek ways of assisting the region improve its economic lot. With arguably the largest population of Nigerians residing in the North, there is no way the collective fortune of Nigeria can be improved without immediately addressing the issue of acute poverty in the region.
I call on the Federal Government to immediately declare an economic emergency in the Northern region and put in place measures to assist northerners uplift their economic status. Unless this is done, Nigeria faces the risk of entrenching economic inequalities not only across social classes but also across geographical lines. This will certainly hinder national unity and development.
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