“Power
corrupts, but lack of power corrupts absolutely.”
Adlai
Stevenson.
I spent two days in Akure, Ondo State a few weeks
before the elections which last week returned the governor to office for a
second term. Two days were too brief to get a real feel about possible outcomes
of the election, but it was obvious even in that brief moment that the Ondo
gubernatorial elections where going to be bitterly contested. Labour Party was
fighting desperately to retain the only State it had control of. The Governor
was fighting on all fronts to stop the bullodozers of the Action Congress of Nigeria
(ACN) and the sharks released by the People Democratic Party (PDP) to see if
they could upset a delicate apple cart in Ondo State. The stakes were very high
indeed, and it was easy to see that it was going to be a bruising battle.
The Governor of Ondo won his re-election bid, in an
election which has yielded many interesting pointers. Coming only a few months
after the Governor of Edo State had won his own re-election battle despite
spirited efforts by the PDP to re-take the politically strategic state, an
interesting pattern appears to be emerging. Is INEC better when it conducts
single-State elections or are governors becoming more adept at defending their
turf? Ideally, it should be the former, because it is obvious that single
gubernatorial elections generate less quarrels over logistics and results than
they do during general elections. Still, its capacity to improve overall performance
can only be judged during general elections.
Edo State showed an election at which everything was
thrown at the Governor by the PDP, but he survived on his own credibility, as
well as the fierce defences of his party, the ACN. The PDP lost, and graciously
accepted defeat. In the case of Ondo State, Governor Mimiko stood like a lone
ranger, assailed by the twin forces of the ACN which was desperate to stamp its
entire authority in the south-west, and the PDP which is seeking a foothold in
a region where it can barely breath. The ACN swaggered around, and gave notice
to Mimiko to vacate the office by its supreme confidence that it will win.
As it turned out, the PDP came second, beating the ACN
to third place in an election which should register as a landmark humiliation
for it. There ought to be some serious soul-search in the top achelons of the
ACN, following the rout in Ondo. Who knows, a few sobering conclusions may
register in minds long convinced of the idea that Yoruba people and the ACN are
one and the same thing. Ondo people said they are not; and offending and
arrogant postures which suggest that all Yoruba people must pay political allegiance
to a power structure created above their heads will now be humbled by the
obstinate independence of Ondo voters.
In Ondo State, and to a lesser extent in Edo State,
the fallacy of political and ethnic boundries coinciding has been badly
exposed. There is a profound lesson in the rejection of the ACN by Ondo voters;
by the stubborn insistence of Edo State voters to vote for it instead of PDP,
and the increasing tendency of voters across the country to resist linkages
between their ethnicity and their politics, or between parties and so called
strongholds. This speaks of potentials for emergence of political structures,
movements and alliances that will break down barriers, provide citizens and
voters with credible choices, and reduce the stranglehold of ethno-religious
politics on the nation.
The PDP’s assured confidence that it can rough it up
and still emerge victorious in key elections is being badly dented. Without the
cover of general elections, its contests take place more openly; its opposition
is getting better in fighting back, and it is losing ground in important
elections. The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) has lost elections that
have deep symbolic significance for its fortunes, and its present state. It
lost an election recently to the PDP in Zaria, an event which would have been inconceivable,
a few months ago, even with the success of Igabi in its kitty. The maneuvers
around its Renewal Committee report which are seen as fights for the life and
soul of the party could do either of two things: provide a significant and
strategic assessment of its weaknesses and strengths, as well as chart a
practical way toward; or represent a final seal on its fortunes as factions and
interests fight over its implications and implementation.
The lessons for the ACN, CPC, APGA and the ANPP are
quite obvious, if they care to look for them in the elections which have taken
place recently. They cannot compete with the PDP because unlike them, the PDP
is a contraption of rich and powerful people from all the nooks and crannies of
the nation who are in it for money and power. With more power they make more
money. With money, power is guaranteed. They can buy up voters, compromise
electoral and security operatives, and even buy up the opposition’s candidates.
Opposition parties which set up camps around ethnic
sentiments or are thinly-veiled personality cults cannot harm the PDP. On the
other hand, the PDP should not presume that its reach and cult-like control
over power and sources of wealth is guarantee that it can continue to rule Nigeria
as it wishes. Politicians who are versed in the old ways of doing things may be
very surprised by the turn of events in the next few months. Firstly, it may be
difficult to continue to paper over the serious limitations and the
incompetence of President Jonathan by invoking false enemies and hostilities to
his being a southerner, from the south-south and Ijaw. Ijaw people like all
other Nigerians know when to draw the line when one of their own proves particularly
incapable of exercising responsibility, and it amounts to gratuitous insult to
say that people from one part of the country will continue to tolerate
incompetence and corruption because they are taking place under the watch of one
of their own.
Secondly those politicians who bank on President Jonathan’s
pitiable record to make political fortunes are likely to find, at great cost,
that records alone do not determine the fortunes of the PDP, or elected people.
Projections which presume bloc votes of tribes or regions and religions during
elections are founded on false assumptions as well. The ACN may pledge to
deliver Yoruba people’s votes, but Ondo has proved that this cannot be
guaranteed. The CPC is still firmly rooted around the person of General
Muhammadu Buhari, and he is therefore both its greatest asset and greatest
liability. Nigerians outside many parts of the North want to see leaders like
the General in charge of the affairs of our nation, but majority would want to
see leaders in political parties which are rooted in their lives, and which can
win elections and form governments at states and the federal level. The ANPP
cannot seem to decide whether it wants to be a local party changing hands by
the day from one rich man to the other; or be part of a national regeneration
process which should break down barriers. Other ethnic parties such as the APGA
appear content to live as ethnic parties, and operate in constant fear of the
PDP.
There are many scenarious which are being discussed in
meetings and other fora regarding Nigerian politics. Many of these are anchored
around false prophesies. One of this is that the Jonathan administration will
continue to weaken the North politically, using every means at its disposal,
until 2015 when he is safely back in the Villa. The falsehood in this scenario
is that the North will submit itself like clay to President Jonathan’s designs
and ambitions to be moulded. Another falsehood in that Senator Tinubu and
General Buhari will engineer a far-north/south-west political alliance to
defeat the PDP. The fact, however is that Tinubu’s control over Yorubaland is
only marginally firmer than General Buhari’s control over much of the
north-west. A third falsehood is that Nigerians will continue to be played by
their leaders as pawns in ethnic politics. The fact however is that the current
levels of anger, poverty and insecurity could compel millions of Nigerians to
look for political solutions beyond what is provided by the present leaders. Bit
by bit, Nigerians are beginning to question the political status-quo, and may
ultimately insist that every citizen, except the politicians who amass power
and wealth at our expense, has been a victim of the destructive and divisive
politics which have brought our nation to its knees.
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