Abah John Abah: Oil Prospecting In The North – Politics and Issues

The Sokoto state governor recently stoked the fires of Nigerian oil politics when he announced to the world that oil(hydrocarbon) has been discovered in commercial quantity in Sokoto state. The governor, Aliyu Wamakko, chose the special occasion of the end of Ramadam fast in August to make the announcement, and quickly took his claims to the presidency. Wamakko disclosure is just one of the series of events/activities that have renewed the hope of Oil prospects in the North, and Nigerian inland petroleum basins in general.
My interest in politics of mineral exploration was triggered early when as young student of geology, just in my second academic year, I attended an informal lecture by a renowned Nigerian professor of Geology. The lecture was titled Economic Politics of Mineral Prospecting in Nigeria. In the eye-opening lecture, the prof took us through issues and high-wired international and national politics that has bogged national projects like Oil search in the North, the Ajaokuta Steel project and solid mineral mining in Nigeria. If I could accept most of the issues, my teething geological mind could not comprehend how Oil could be found in the ‘dry’ north and why anyone would scuttle such an interesting possibility. It was a good awakening for an aspiring geologist from a village within such inland basin in the middle belt of Nigeria.
Interests in oil prospecting in the North and Nigeria inland basins gathered momentum recently when in August this year, the person who should know, the president of Nigerian Mining and Geoscience Society, Akinola A. George made a case for oil search in the North. Similar anxiety has been expressed by some leading voices in the North including the Arewa Consultative Forum. It was thus nerve-calming when the Vice President, Namadi Sambo, with the officials of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation(NNPC) announced that there is a renewed effort to work with relevant companies to speed up prospecting of exploitable petroleum deposits in the Chad Basin and other inland Basins. Exploration campaign in these basins have been halted because it is believed in some quarters that the basins holds no exploitable deposits of hydrocarbons. As argued by Akinola, until advanced geological studies, using new technology is carried out, such claims of unviability will be hasty. History is replete with failed oil expedition overturned by technology. Ghana recently struck oil after 20 years of failed attempts. When the British were invited to prospect for oil in Saudi Arabia they returned after unsuccessful campaign to announce to the Saudi kings that the Arabian deserts was only good for rearing camels. The Americans went with hi-tech exploration technics and today Saudi Arabia is the world largest producer.
That oil exist in commercial quantity in Nigerian inland basins is known by every geologist familiar with sedimentary basins. Nigerian petroleum basins are the Chad Basin- covering most of North Central Africa with Nigerian part reaching to Borno, Yobe and Bauchi; Rima Basin- actually the western extension of the Chad basin covers Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara and Katsina; Benue Trough- encapsulating the River Benue and surrounding states; and the Anambra Basin- Anambra, Enugu and parts of Benue and Kogi. For a long time now, the existence of petroleum in exploitable quantity in the Anambra Basin and Benue Trough is know by prospecting companies in Nigeria. Orient Petroleum recently resumed production in the Anambra Basin and the Lower Benue Trough. The resumption of production in these areas has renewed the fervour for oil search in the Chad and Rima Basins. Experts believe that it is only a matter of time before production move up to the Upper Benue and Northern basins.
Oil search in the Chad basin began as far back as 1976, championed by the NNPC in collaboration with her oil major joint partners of Shell, Mobile, Elf, Chevron and Agip. The exploration has been bedeviled by myriads of problems ranging from funding, politics, technology and basic economics of scale by the oil giants. There have been bouts of efforts by successive governments but the search progressed with such snail speed that clearly showed the NNPC and government have been complacent because we are gifted with abundant reserves in the Niger Delta. Soon after the beginning of the present republic, the senate, urged by Senator Salisu Matori(Bauchi) launched an inquiry into NNPC exploration of oil in the North. Many revealing facts already expressed in many quarters came to light. Following the Senate intervention, the Federal government commissioned a consortium of indigenous and international consultants to do an integrated study and review of past exploration strategies and come up with a new approach that will lead to commercial oil find. This ‘renewed’ approach went in the way of past efforts fuelling the speculation that the government, and the NNPC lack the commitment to pursue the project of North oil search to a successful end.
Many of the oil companies granted exploration blocks in the Chad basin and Benue Trough have carried out exploratory drilling without the yield of what geologist called ‘wild cat wells’, the theoretical one strike out of ten exploratory drills. Doubts have been expressed over the depth of wells drilled and the technology deployed. The seismic study that highlights the depth of oil-bearing reservoir rocks had been done with 2D technology instead of the more advanced 3D used in other parts of the world. Exploratory drill depth had been restricted to the controversial 3,000 meters ‘oil window’ approved by the NNPC for most of Northern basins. Experts have questioned the decision to peg the oil window at such depth when the technology deployed is suspect. The structural studies reveals a sedimentary pile of up to 6,000meters and it is likely that 3D seismics and better technology can point to a deeper ‘oil window’.
Exploratory drilling campaign is a painstaking and expensive venture and this is where NNPC funding has been called to question. As confirmed even by Senate findings, the exploration have often been halted because the efforts have been solely funded by the prospecting companies. These are companies that have their hands full in the oil-rich Niger Delta where new exploratory campaign is, hugely complimented by existing data, cheap. Any investor with such prospects would simply apply the economics of scale. What is the use throwing millions of dollars into an uncertain project that holds little comparative profit? They would rather concentrate on the Niger Delta where the turn over is a lot better. The refrain among the NNPC joint venture partners seems to be “if you want oil in the inland Basins, then commit funds”.
Oil production in the foreign parts of the Chad basin- Chad and Niger Republics, has helped to reaffirm the belief by experts that Nigeria has not started production in our parts of the basin because our exploration lacks the required vigour or/and hampered by undue politicking. Exploration only begun about two decades ago in Chad and Niger republics but their campaign was sustained through political backing and funding born by the prospecting firms. It is clear that the major NNPC partners constitute an interesting factor in the equation. It is difficult to get these companies commit all the fund needed without assistance from the government as long as they have better investment prospects in the Niger Delta. Investment analyst believe that Nigeria needs a fresh programme for interested oil companies for whom the Inland Basins will be an exciting prospects. We can look beyond the western oil majors as Niger and Chad Republics have done.
The Federal Government and the host states need to work with the NNPC to evolve new strategy to actualise the dream of oil production in the Basins. The success of Orient petroleum in Anambra state underscores the huge impact the backing of host states can make. Successive state governments, across party lines, in Anambra state have ensured the prospecting programme was sustained, with significant state funding and equity. It is not enough for state governments to make claims of oil finds. They should show some dexterity in this regard. The disclosure by Sokoto state government that they are seeking the help of Niger Republic is laughable. Nigeria has leading experts in oil technology known all-over the world. We may lack home-grown technology but we have been in the business long enough to do it without the help of minnows like Niger republic. The boundary states should be careful as modern multi-lateral drilling has made it possible for neighbouring countries to suck oil from under your backyard by simply sitting wells just close to the border line.
This discuss cannot be concluded without addressing the issue of security. Oil find in the North has the potential to redefine the present security challenges in the region. The huge wealth oil exploitation can bring holds tempting appeals for secessionist fighters. Oil alone can be a bargain collateral for arms support from enemy nations. There need to be concerted effort to quickly end the Boko Haram insurgency and other crises in the North, not just for peace of oil workers but that the anticipated wealth becomes a blessing to be enjoyed instead of a curse.
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