Regime change and popular disaffection
By Tatalo Alamu
In most of Africa, peaceful regime changes are so infrequent that violent seizures of power or loss of hegemony by a particular faction of the ruling class often appear like revolutionary upheavals. By the time the storm clears and the din of contention recedes, it is obvious that nothing has changed, or that the more things change, the more they remain the same. Whereas in advance democracies with durable and well-developed institutional mechanism for regime change, fundamental changes in societies often appear normal and routine developments.
Just about a century or so ago, it would have been unthinkable for a female to accede to the reins of power in leading western countries. Yet today, and barely a century after adult suffragette was extended to women, you have female leaders firmly in pole position in several western countries. Britain had earlier elected the tough no-nonsense Margaret Thatcher. America, a deeply conservative and thoroughly patriarchal country despite grandstanding to the contrary, has had three female Secretaries of State in quick succession, namely Maidelene Albright, Condoleeza Rice and Hillary Clinton. In 2008, the USA elected its first black president ahead of a female president.
Despite deeply entrenched vested interests against change, institutional mechanisms that facilitate peaceful changes allow these countries to experience revolutionary changes without revolutionary upheavals. In most of Africa, on the other hand, the absence or weaknesses of these institutional changes often lead to violent ruptures or even a temporary collapse of the state when it comes to a mere transfer of power from one faction of the ruling class to another.
In Liberia, the two Congos, Sierra Leone, Algeria, Burundi, Cote D’Ivoire, Uganda, Angola and many others, elections that ought to have heralded peaceful change led to civil wars and a calamitous collapse of the state. In Nigeria after the debacle of the June 12 1993 presidential election when the dominant military faction refused to hand over power to the legitimate winner, it took some intricate elite pacting and the Obasanjo Settlement to effect a transfer of power from the military to a pan-Nigerian civilian coalition.
As this column never tires of preaching, elections do not resolve national questions. In fact, they often worsen and exacerbate the national question, leading to a dramatic resurgence of ethnic, regional and religious polarities. Despite being hailed as relatively and reasonably free and fair, the 2011 presidential election would appear to have worsened intra-elite contention for power in Nigeria and its nuclear fall-out. Never in its modern history has the country appeared more spectacularly adrift and rudderless. There is an upswing of national disaffection on a scale that has never been seen before. Once again, the storms are gathering. This is the time for the political elite to put on their thinking cap.
Yet despite sharing in the continental aberration of non-democratic elections, Nigeria remains a unique and perplexing paradox. In the last presidential election, power appears to have been prised away from a power cartel that has held the nation hostage either directly or by sly proxy since independence. Goodluck Jonathan’s mandate appeared to have been divinely ordained; a darkly mysterious intervention in the body politic and a pan-Nigerian resurrection of the great national dream. It spoke to the possibility of a new beginning if a famously “shoeless” boy from the tidal backwater of Otueke could accede so effortlessly to the Nigerian imperial presidency.
Ordinarily, this ought to have greatly warmed the heart. It ought to have strengthened our collective resolve for a new beginning. We have been looking for signs and signals of that new beginning, of a great stirring of the huge black behemoth. Alas, it has turned out to be a backbreaking mirage; a damp squib that suffers a huge disconnect from the great yearning of the Nigerian multitude. Apart from its profound symbolic possibility, the Jonathan presidency is turning out to be a continuation of the past by other means.
Because it was ordered from above through the instrumentality of state power and its coercive machinery, because it was a product of a manufactured elite consensus rather than a genuine national rupture of the old order, what we thought was a peaceful revolution has turned out to be nothing more than a mere revolt by an ascendant faction of the ruling class. In the event, we have been saddled with a mere change of personnel rather a change in the personality of the post-colonial state. Some will even aver that that will do for now.
Part of the problem stems from the fact that many voted for Jonathan for different and mutually exclusive reasons. In the restive riverine enclave which has been clamouring for resource control and power shift based on the ownership of a mono-cultural economy, Jonathan enjoyed the home-boy advantage.
The west gave him a tactical nod in order to give the “auld” northern enemy a historic black eye. But it hedged its bet by giving complete power to a party campaigning for regional autonomy and the resuscitation of the old federalism and the fiercely competitive spirit which drove change and innovation up to the demise of the First Republic. The east played the traditional good boy naively and opportunistically hoping that this good gesture will guarantee its eventual turn at the till.
The north was fissured, fractured and fragmented down the line. While the masses were obviously yearning for change powered and driven by one of their own, the traditional power barons, outsmarted at their own game of divide and rule, outfoxed on their own natural turf, lapsed into a surly bewilderment and bitter misgiving which has continued till date.
Rather than a genuine national consensus, this was the cocktail of contradictions that has borne the Jonathan presidency aloft and may yet shipwreck it. It requires a sober rectitude, tactical astuteness and strategic brilliance to plot one’s way out of the labyrinthine maze of conflicting and conflicted passions. But for a man who has found himself in a great foxhole, Jonathan has continued to dig in with frenetic fury. Apart from a series of unforced errors, Jonathan has been helped along in his perilous misadventure by a string of inexperienced advisers and the stony resolve of the general who will be democratic president.
Enter the tall ramrod war-lord with the aristocratic forbearance of his Fulani forebears. In certain moments of history and in the tumultuous flow and ebb of vital events, a particular exceptional individual may incarnate the contradictions of the age to an unusual degree. No other contemporary personality encapsulates or emblematizes the paradox of the contemporary Nigerian situation and the dilemmas of democracy more than the taciturn and ascetic former infantry general. His short spell as military dictator was distinguished by its draconian measures and the sheer ferocity of the effort to turn Nigeria to the path of rectitude.
Riding on the crest of popular revulsion with politics and politicians, the general did not even bother with a programme for the return of civil rule throughout his tenure. Even after he was kicked out in a palace coup masterminded by his Chief of Army Staff, Buhari has never publicly expressed any remorse over that seeming lacunae. If this abiding contempt for politics and politicians is his sterling strength, it is also the source of his undoing as a contemporary political figure.
It is a perplexing irony that it is an unabashed former military autocrat who has done most to deepen the democratic process and to return sovereignty to the Nigerian electorate in the Fourth Republic. Buhari’s quest for the Nigerian presidency has become the stuff of fabled legends. In fact it has become the general’s odyssey and far more intriguing than his military exploits on Chadian territory or the battle fields of the Nigerian civil war.
General Buhari has already bested Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s record appearance at the presidential polls. He has also been at the Appellate Court to overturn presidential verdicts more than any other Nigerian living or dead. In the process, he has helped to deepen the judicial process and gifted the judiciary with some landmark dissenting judgements, particularly Oguntade in 2007 and the brilliant minority judgement of 2003.
Slowly and imperceptibly, General Buhari has also transformed from a military dictator to a cult political figure particularly among the northern masses who view him as the messiah in waiting and the equivalent of the mythical twelfth imam. For a man who is not gifted in the elocution department and who disdains oratory as sheer fraudulent rhetoric, this is no mean achievement. For the old northern political class and its diminished power masters, the fear of Buhari is the beginning of wisdom.
Snooper has had the opportunity of watching and interacting with the general at close quarters. One cannot but be impressed by his stark simplicity and sincerity of purpose and the patriotic fervour that underlines every statement of his. There is an incandescent rage about the plight of Nigeria and its people. If only Buhari can lay his hands at the scoundrels.
But there is also a misdirected piety; a puritanical self-righteousness which sits oddly with a politician and which is touching in its idyllic and idealistic naivete. This leads to a mental, professional, ideological and spiritual blockage which prevents the general from seeing the total picture as it is and not as it ought to be. Politics is the art of the possible. The paradox is that General Buhari is a non-professional politician. In the murky jungle of Nigerian politics, that is as short as a suicide note can get.
In the light of this, it is a bit rich for the Federal Executive Council to attempt to prevail on General Buhari not to seek redress at the Supreme Court. This is a classic case of chutzpah. It is reminiscent of the man who has murdered his parents asking the court to set him free on the grounds that he is an orphan. Where were they when the judicial stakes were being openly manipulated and deliberately rigged in favour of a preferred outcome? This column warned then that the removal of Justice Ayo Salami from the Appellate would strip the judgement of any legitimacy and authority. This is precisely what has happened.
It is feeble and futile at this point to ask General Buhari to act in the greater national interest when the temporary and transient custodians of the same national interest act in a way and manner that threaten national interest. This is either cynicism gone haywire or some idle postprandial rap. Of course it is obvious that the dour and impassive general would treat the appeal with stony and affronted contempt.
But having said that, it is now time for General Buhari to take political, spiritual and ideological stock of the struggle for the democratic emancipation of Nigeria and his own signal and sterling role in this. As a tested general, he should know that there is no point fighting a new battle with old weapons. All over the world, the adjudication of presidential electoral disputes is rigged beforehand in favour of the status quo. Luckily for Nigeria, this is not an ethnic, religious or regional affair but a pure class act.
The protocol of judicial elders who adjudicate in these matters belongs to a caste within a class. Their revered lordships may frown and scowl but they are also not disposed to disrupting an on-going party. In any case, it is standard practice in boxing adjudication that to dethrone a reigning heavyweight, you not only have to beat him, you have to beat him up. If General Buhari’s sole ambition is to enrich the judicial process, he can continue with his quest for justice but out there in the real power canvas, the PDP will have to be beaten silly before it agrees to go home punchdrunk.
Luckily Jonathan is providing ample ammunition to the enemy on that front with ill-judged anti-people policies and his flagrant misreading of the national mood. But first Buhari’s party will have to put its own house in order. This is bound to be time-consuming and energy-sapping. As it is, the CPC is neither cohesive nor coherent. It is a mass-action movement gone haywire.
The masses may vote en-masse all right, but they lack the discipline and organization to see this through. Once the vote-counters appear to shortchange them, they desert in droves to look for petrol cans or burn their voters’ card in a ritual act of electoral suicide and political self-immolation. This was what happened in the north the last time which allowed the PDP to claw its way back into contention in a suspect and suspicious manner.
A period of sober strategic reflection is now imperative for the much-admired general. To start with, the CPC will have to break out of its regional and ethnic cocoon to become an authentic national platform. In the absence of that, the party will have to cut the much detested deal with other opposition parties. If the general finds the wheeling and dealing, the shabby horse-trading so customary of contemporary Nigerian politics too dishonorable, too disreputable and too demeaning for his puritanical mind-set, it may be time to yield place and become the Mathama Ghandi of his movement. Here is wishing Mohammadu Buhari many more years of patriotic service to the fatherland.
By Tatalo Alamu
In most of Africa, peaceful regime changes are so infrequent that violent seizures of power or loss of hegemony by a particular faction of the ruling class often appear like revolutionary upheavals. By the time the storm clears and the din of contention recedes, it is obvious that nothing has changed, or that the more things change, the more they remain the same. Whereas in advance democracies with durable and well-developed institutional mechanism for regime change, fundamental changes in societies often appear normal and routine developments.
Just about a century or so ago, it would have been unthinkable for a female to accede to the reins of power in leading western countries. Yet today, and barely a century after adult suffragette was extended to women, you have female leaders firmly in pole position in several western countries. Britain had earlier elected the tough no-nonsense Margaret Thatcher. America, a deeply conservative and thoroughly patriarchal country despite grandstanding to the contrary, has had three female Secretaries of State in quick succession, namely Maidelene Albright, Condoleeza Rice and Hillary Clinton. In 2008, the USA elected its first black president ahead of a female president.
Despite deeply entrenched vested interests against change, institutional mechanisms that facilitate peaceful changes allow these countries to experience revolutionary changes without revolutionary upheavals. In most of Africa, on the other hand, the absence or weaknesses of these institutional changes often lead to violent ruptures or even a temporary collapse of the state when it comes to a mere transfer of power from one faction of the ruling class to another.
In Liberia, the two Congos, Sierra Leone, Algeria, Burundi, Cote D’Ivoire, Uganda, Angola and many others, elections that ought to have heralded peaceful change led to civil wars and a calamitous collapse of the state. In Nigeria after the debacle of the June 12 1993 presidential election when the dominant military faction refused to hand over power to the legitimate winner, it took some intricate elite pacting and the Obasanjo Settlement to effect a transfer of power from the military to a pan-Nigerian civilian coalition.
As this column never tires of preaching, elections do not resolve national questions. In fact, they often worsen and exacerbate the national question, leading to a dramatic resurgence of ethnic, regional and religious polarities. Despite being hailed as relatively and reasonably free and fair, the 2011 presidential election would appear to have worsened intra-elite contention for power in Nigeria and its nuclear fall-out. Never in its modern history has the country appeared more spectacularly adrift and rudderless. There is an upswing of national disaffection on a scale that has never been seen before. Once again, the storms are gathering. This is the time for the political elite to put on their thinking cap.
Yet despite sharing in the continental aberration of non-democratic elections, Nigeria remains a unique and perplexing paradox. In the last presidential election, power appears to have been prised away from a power cartel that has held the nation hostage either directly or by sly proxy since independence. Goodluck Jonathan’s mandate appeared to have been divinely ordained; a darkly mysterious intervention in the body politic and a pan-Nigerian resurrection of the great national dream. It spoke to the possibility of a new beginning if a famously “shoeless” boy from the tidal backwater of Otueke could accede so effortlessly to the Nigerian imperial presidency.
Ordinarily, this ought to have greatly warmed the heart. It ought to have strengthened our collective resolve for a new beginning. We have been looking for signs and signals of that new beginning, of a great stirring of the huge black behemoth. Alas, it has turned out to be a backbreaking mirage; a damp squib that suffers a huge disconnect from the great yearning of the Nigerian multitude. Apart from its profound symbolic possibility, the Jonathan presidency is turning out to be a continuation of the past by other means.
Because it was ordered from above through the instrumentality of state power and its coercive machinery, because it was a product of a manufactured elite consensus rather than a genuine national rupture of the old order, what we thought was a peaceful revolution has turned out to be nothing more than a mere revolt by an ascendant faction of the ruling class. In the event, we have been saddled with a mere change of personnel rather a change in the personality of the post-colonial state. Some will even aver that that will do for now.
Part of the problem stems from the fact that many voted for Jonathan for different and mutually exclusive reasons. In the restive riverine enclave which has been clamouring for resource control and power shift based on the ownership of a mono-cultural economy, Jonathan enjoyed the home-boy advantage.
The west gave him a tactical nod in order to give the “auld” northern enemy a historic black eye. But it hedged its bet by giving complete power to a party campaigning for regional autonomy and the resuscitation of the old federalism and the fiercely competitive spirit which drove change and innovation up to the demise of the First Republic. The east played the traditional good boy naively and opportunistically hoping that this good gesture will guarantee its eventual turn at the till.
The north was fissured, fractured and fragmented down the line. While the masses were obviously yearning for change powered and driven by one of their own, the traditional power barons, outsmarted at their own game of divide and rule, outfoxed on their own natural turf, lapsed into a surly bewilderment and bitter misgiving which has continued till date.
Rather than a genuine national consensus, this was the cocktail of contradictions that has borne the Jonathan presidency aloft and may yet shipwreck it. It requires a sober rectitude, tactical astuteness and strategic brilliance to plot one’s way out of the labyrinthine maze of conflicting and conflicted passions. But for a man who has found himself in a great foxhole, Jonathan has continued to dig in with frenetic fury. Apart from a series of unforced errors, Jonathan has been helped along in his perilous misadventure by a string of inexperienced advisers and the stony resolve of the general who will be democratic president.
Enter the tall ramrod war-lord with the aristocratic forbearance of his Fulani forebears. In certain moments of history and in the tumultuous flow and ebb of vital events, a particular exceptional individual may incarnate the contradictions of the age to an unusual degree. No other contemporary personality encapsulates or emblematizes the paradox of the contemporary Nigerian situation and the dilemmas of democracy more than the taciturn and ascetic former infantry general. His short spell as military dictator was distinguished by its draconian measures and the sheer ferocity of the effort to turn Nigeria to the path of rectitude.
Riding on the crest of popular revulsion with politics and politicians, the general did not even bother with a programme for the return of civil rule throughout his tenure. Even after he was kicked out in a palace coup masterminded by his Chief of Army Staff, Buhari has never publicly expressed any remorse over that seeming lacunae. If this abiding contempt for politics and politicians is his sterling strength, it is also the source of his undoing as a contemporary political figure.
It is a perplexing irony that it is an unabashed former military autocrat who has done most to deepen the democratic process and to return sovereignty to the Nigerian electorate in the Fourth Republic. Buhari’s quest for the Nigerian presidency has become the stuff of fabled legends. In fact it has become the general’s odyssey and far more intriguing than his military exploits on Chadian territory or the battle fields of the Nigerian civil war.
General Buhari has already bested Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s record appearance at the presidential polls. He has also been at the Appellate Court to overturn presidential verdicts more than any other Nigerian living or dead. In the process, he has helped to deepen the judicial process and gifted the judiciary with some landmark dissenting judgements, particularly Oguntade in 2007 and the brilliant minority judgement of 2003.
Slowly and imperceptibly, General Buhari has also transformed from a military dictator to a cult political figure particularly among the northern masses who view him as the messiah in waiting and the equivalent of the mythical twelfth imam. For a man who is not gifted in the elocution department and who disdains oratory as sheer fraudulent rhetoric, this is no mean achievement. For the old northern political class and its diminished power masters, the fear of Buhari is the beginning of wisdom.
Snooper has had the opportunity of watching and interacting with the general at close quarters. One cannot but be impressed by his stark simplicity and sincerity of purpose and the patriotic fervour that underlines every statement of his. There is an incandescent rage about the plight of Nigeria and its people. If only Buhari can lay his hands at the scoundrels.
But there is also a misdirected piety; a puritanical self-righteousness which sits oddly with a politician and which is touching in its idyllic and idealistic naivete. This leads to a mental, professional, ideological and spiritual blockage which prevents the general from seeing the total picture as it is and not as it ought to be. Politics is the art of the possible. The paradox is that General Buhari is a non-professional politician. In the murky jungle of Nigerian politics, that is as short as a suicide note can get.
In the light of this, it is a bit rich for the Federal Executive Council to attempt to prevail on General Buhari not to seek redress at the Supreme Court. This is a classic case of chutzpah. It is reminiscent of the man who has murdered his parents asking the court to set him free on the grounds that he is an orphan. Where were they when the judicial stakes were being openly manipulated and deliberately rigged in favour of a preferred outcome? This column warned then that the removal of Justice Ayo Salami from the Appellate would strip the judgement of any legitimacy and authority. This is precisely what has happened.
It is feeble and futile at this point to ask General Buhari to act in the greater national interest when the temporary and transient custodians of the same national interest act in a way and manner that threaten national interest. This is either cynicism gone haywire or some idle postprandial rap. Of course it is obvious that the dour and impassive general would treat the appeal with stony and affronted contempt.
But having said that, it is now time for General Buhari to take political, spiritual and ideological stock of the struggle for the democratic emancipation of Nigeria and his own signal and sterling role in this. As a tested general, he should know that there is no point fighting a new battle with old weapons. All over the world, the adjudication of presidential electoral disputes is rigged beforehand in favour of the status quo. Luckily for Nigeria, this is not an ethnic, religious or regional affair but a pure class act.
The protocol of judicial elders who adjudicate in these matters belongs to a caste within a class. Their revered lordships may frown and scowl but they are also not disposed to disrupting an on-going party. In any case, it is standard practice in boxing adjudication that to dethrone a reigning heavyweight, you not only have to beat him, you have to beat him up. If General Buhari’s sole ambition is to enrich the judicial process, he can continue with his quest for justice but out there in the real power canvas, the PDP will have to be beaten silly before it agrees to go home punchdrunk.
Luckily Jonathan is providing ample ammunition to the enemy on that front with ill-judged anti-people policies and his flagrant misreading of the national mood. But first Buhari’s party will have to put its own house in order. This is bound to be time-consuming and energy-sapping. As it is, the CPC is neither cohesive nor coherent. It is a mass-action movement gone haywire.
The masses may vote en-masse all right, but they lack the discipline and organization to see this through. Once the vote-counters appear to shortchange them, they desert in droves to look for petrol cans or burn their voters’ card in a ritual act of electoral suicide and political self-immolation. This was what happened in the north the last time which allowed the PDP to claw its way back into contention in a suspect and suspicious manner.
A period of sober strategic reflection is now imperative for the much-admired general. To start with, the CPC will have to break out of its regional and ethnic cocoon to become an authentic national platform. In the absence of that, the party will have to cut the much detested deal with other opposition parties. If the general finds the wheeling and dealing, the shabby horse-trading so customary of contemporary Nigerian politics too dishonorable, too disreputable and too demeaning for his puritanical mind-set, it may be time to yield place and become the Mathama Ghandi of his movement. Here is wishing Mohammadu Buhari many more years of patriotic service to the fatherland.
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