2015: Jonathan’s body language and the opposition

President Goodluck Jonathan

Kunle Oderemi writes on some emerging intrigues over the 2015 presidency Last Sunday, President Goodluck Jonathan was literarily on the spot as the nation’s chief steward. For two hours, a panel of interviewers grilled him on the state of the nation. In giving account of his stewardship, the president touched on different sectors, policies and programmes of his administration as well as some challenges confronting his government.
The president spoke on the build-up to the planned constitution review, six-year single term proposal, 2015 presidency, the Rivers/Bayelsa states brouhaha over some oil wells, Boko Haram  conundrum, corruption, 2013 federal budget,  and other crucial national issues. But one of the items appears to have elicited more interest, which is his cautious statement on the 2015 presidency. He  deliberately made an open-ended statement on the subject matter concerning his person.
“If the president tells you he is contesting in 2015, it will generate issues. Before you ask whether the president will contest or not, wait till 2014. Give us time to know whether Mr. President will contest in 2015 or not. I don’t want to distract my government. If you want to hear from me, wait till 2014,” he told Nigerians.
Since then, he has kept all guessing about what is actually on his mind; whether he would seek a renewal of his mandate for another four years at the end of his current tenure. There are claims and counter-claims that what the Otuoke, Bayelsa State-born politician meant was that he had made up his mind to run, but believed the time to make an open declaration was not now. To the opposition, there was no ambiguity in Jonathan’s statement and only the uncanny would contest that Jonathan has technically confirmed his ambition for second term. In their opinion, he is only being tactical about it in order to keep his adversaries in suspense. To them, his body language has consistently underscored the inference in the statement that his running for another term in office in 2015 is a foregone conclusion. And as far as they are concerned, Jonathan’s foot soldiers, tacticians/strategists and campaigners have already hit the ground running in grand but in subtle style to smoothen all edges.
Some pundits have also interpreted the utterances and activities of close confidants of the president, certain prominent individuals and groups as pointers that he might run again in 2015. One of such leading figures is the leader of the Ijaw nation, Chief Edwin Clark, who has consistently declared that the president can seek another four-year term. He anchors his views on the provision on the 1999 Constitution, coupled with the fact that former President Olusegun Obasanjo served for two terms of eight years. Other pro-Jonathan campaigners insist the South-South zone, which is the main constituency of the president, deserves to fill the presidential slot again based on the zoning policy of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has dominated the presidency since the country returned to civil rule in 1999.
Not quite long, the Special Adviser to the President on Political Matters, Alhaji Ahmed Gulak, explained that his principal had every right under the constitution to aspire.  He warned, “Nobody can abridge Jonathan’s constitutional rights to aspire to that office” but with a caveat that the fate of every human being who aspires to be president is in the hands of God.”

Kalu

However, a Second Republic politician, Dr Muhammed Junaid, said the president could create a crisis for the country if he decided to re-contest in 2015. He advised him to first seek the Supreme Court interpretation of his eligibility, having taken the oath of office in his present capacity. Junaid said, “If Mr. President is a true Nigerian leader, he should decide now so that those who have issues with him will go to court and get redress. The issue is not about him but 160 million Nigerians whose faith is to the presidency of Nigeria. Jonathan has no right to dilly dally with the destiny of Nigerians.” Two Igbo politicians, Dr Chukwuemeka Ezeife and Chief Orji Uzor Kalu, viewed the race for the 2015 from a different perspective. It is their belief that the 2015 presidency is crucial in the life of the country and noted that it would be an opportunity for the country to strike a balance through power shift among the component of the federation. Ezeife contended, “The South-East deserves to produce the next president in the interest of equity and fairness. Is it a time bomb waiting to explode? Or will it strengthen the nation or mar it? Obviously, whichever way it is viewed, 2015 is a year with so much uncertainty, just as it is very critical to the future of Nigeria.”
He had a companion in the former Abia State governor, Kalu, who asserted that the Igbo must have their turn in 2015 to lead the country “almost about 48 years after the civil war.” Kalu, who has remained consistent in his crusade for the Igbo to produce the president, said it was hogwash for any Igbo man to be against the Igbo presidency project. “Anybody who wants to run for the presidency should prepare. Why should they wait for anybody to tell them whether he would run or not? That is part of the things that are not right in our democracy. South-East has not been fairly treated. That is why when I see some people say they are waiting for Jonathan to decide whether he would run or not, I look at them as very stupid. Nobody should decide for anybody. As far as I m concerned, it is either you give the Igbo the presidency or nothing,” he said.
A PDP leader from the South-East, Chief Emmanuel Iwuanyanwu, had proposed the inclusion of zoning in the constitution. He said the success of the power rotation and zoning so far makes it imperative to enshrine them in the constitution of the country. But the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) kicked against the call on the ground that the principle of zoning was unwittingly killed and buried by the 2011 elections. ACF National Publicity Secretary, Anthony Sani, said, “By voting a Southerner in the 2011 presidential poll, Nigerians overwhelmingly voted against zoning and rotational presidency. So, everybody bringing up the issue of zoning is trying to draw us backwards.” Similarly, Ezeife expressed reservation on it but with a measure of caution. He said, “I don’t know what Iwuanyawu’s line of thought was when he said that, ‘but I say Igbo presidency is possible and we will get it.’”
Whether the president declares his intention in earnest or not, the tempo of politicking for the 2015 is beginning to rise. The actors are beginning to raise the bar on the inherent salient issues and in no distant time, various political alliances are expected to emerge as further response to the current coded body language of the president.
In the meantime, issues like the acrimony that surrounded the emergence of PDP presidential ticket, zoning and rotational system, the then Yar’Adua/Jonathan presidency will remain top on the agenda of major political discourse in the country.
SaturdayTribune